Russian Economy General News: #1

Russian Patriot wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Honestly it doesn't matter whether the money stays in Russia or not; if its in the pocket of some corrupt oligarch anyway.

Putin's money has gone into some palace on the Black Sea coast or wherever it is. Real investment into Russia that is...

Anyway; I don't even care - most important thing is that he's doing his job. If Putin can't guarantee results anymore, and if he can't guarantee the 6% economic growth that he promised as part of his 2012 election campaign; than he should move aside for someone that can.

question is who ? I hope you don't say Navalny who is as corrupt as they come.


Ivanox- Deputy Prime Minster - maybe but doubtful

Rogozin- has chances , but honestly doubt they will pick him.


Come to think of it I think Zybukov - has  most chances.

flamming_python wrote:

Russian Patriot wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Honestly it doesn't matter whether the money stays in Russia or not; if its in the pocket of some corrupt oligarch anyway.

Putin's money has gone into some palace on the Black Sea coast or wherever it is. Real investment into Russia that is...

Anyway; I don't even care - most important thing is that he's doing his job. If Putin can't guarantee results anymore, and if he can't guarantee the 6% economic growth that he promised as part of his 2012 election campaign; than he should move aside for someone that can.

question is who ? I hope you don't say Navalny who is as corrupt as they come.


Ivanox- Deputy Prime Minster - maybe but doubtful

Rogozin- has chances , but honestly doubt they will pick him.


Come to think of it I think Zybukov - has  most chances.

Just out of interest; not that I'm in any way a supporter of Navalny (he has a dangerously high probability of being a Western agent), but how can you attest as to his corruption?

TheArmenian wrote:I'll go with Lavrov too. But I am biased (because he is half Armenian).

flamming_python wrote:I'm going for Shoigu

But I'm biased; because I'm Russian in body, but Tuvan in heart

US Set to Leapfrog Russia in Oil and Gas Output – Reports

WASHINGTON, October 3 (RIA Novosti) - The United States is expected to leapfrog Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas this year thanks to a surge in US fuel production driven by technology that allows energy companies to tap into oil and gas in underground shale rock formations, according to media reports and an independent energy agency.

A report in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Wednesday said that the United States is “on track to pass Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil and gas combined this year – if it hasn’t already.”

And the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil Market Report (OMR) for September that “the US is set to become the leading non-OPEC liquids producer” in the world as of the third quarter of this year, if biofuels are included in the calculations.

Even if biofuels – which Russia produces in very small amounts while US production has risen sharply – are taken out of the equation, the United States is still nipping at Russia’s heels in terms of total production of oil and gas, the IEA said.

The third quarter forecast for US oil and gas production was 10.3 million barrels per day or just 500,000 barrels a day less than Russia’s.

According to the IEA’s Key Energy Statistics report, the United States was the world’s largest producer of natural gas last year, producing 681 billion cubic meters compared to 656 billion produced by Russia.

Part of the reason why Russia is likely to be surpassed by the United States in total oil and gas production is because technologies like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which has allowed the United States to tap into shale rock to extract gas, have not been rolled out on a large scale in Russia.

Fracking – which involves injecting water and chemicals into underground shale to release trapped gas – has also brought down the price of US natural gas by boosting supply.

As US energy extraction and production have gone up, imports of natural gas and crude oil have fallen by 32 percent and 15 percent, respectively, in the last five years, the Wall Street Journal said.

At the same time, however, the United States, which is a voracious consumer of energy, didn’t make it onto the top 10 of natural gas exporters in 2012, while Russia topped the list, selling 185 billion cubic meters of its natural gas production to other countries.

“Since the US is such a big consumer of energy, the shift to producing more of its own oil and gas has left substantial fuel supplies available for other buyers,” the WSJ wrote.

Lower US gas prices and increased availability give countries that import fuel another viable source for gas supplies.

According to a report in the International Business Times (IBT), the US Department of Energy is reviewing “at least two dozen” applications to build export terminals for liquid natural gas (LNG), and Britain has already expressed strong interest in buying its gas from the United States, according to the IBT.

The big loser in the story is expected to be Russia, which is currently the second biggest natural gas supplier to Europe after Norway.

The Russian Academy of Sciences' Energy Research Institute has predicted that Russian exports of oil and gas could fall as much as 25 to 30 percent by 2015, which would reduce GDP by $100 billion and slash oil and gas-related duties and taxes, which currently make up more than 40 percent of Russian revenues, the WSJ report said.

The United States is also narrowing the gap with Russia in crude oil production, lagging behind Russia by just 900,000 barrels a day in the first half of this year, compared to three million barrels a day a few years ago, according to the IEA.

But not everyone in Russia is worried about being elbowed out of its dominant fuel market position by the United States, the WSJ said.

The country is thought to have “one of the world's largest, untapped oil-bearing shale formations, creating the potential for a surge in production,” and the head of Russian energy giant Gazprom has said the US shale output boom is "a bubble that will soon burst," the newspaper said.

Foreign debt as of October 1, 2013 amounted to 719.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 9 months of 2013 to 83.2 billion dollars, or 13%. This is stated in the articles published today by the Bank of Russia.

The growth of external debt from July 1, 2013 amounted to 13.4 billion dollars / 1.9% /.

According to the statistics of the Central Bank, the current level of foreign debt of the Russian Federation is a record.

Enterprises non-banking sector increased its debt for the first 9 months of 2013 by 61.2 billion / 17% / - to 426.7 billion dollars. For banks, this amount increased by 11.4 billion dollars / 5.6% / - to 213 billion dollars.

The crisis of 2008, from extreme euphoria to an unexpected shock

A positive current account balance has decreased by 52%

The current account surplus in Russia in January-September 2013 amounted to 29.5 billion dollars, according to the materials of the Bank of Russia.

For the same period in 2012 this figure was 61.5 billion dollars, so a positive current account balance has decreased by 52%.

The size of the current account surplus declined consistently since the beginning of the year. If in the 1st quarter of 2013 it stood at 25 billion dollars, in the 2nd quarter it decreased to $ 3.4 billion in Q3 - up to $ 1.1 billion.

According to preliminary data of the Central Bank, at the same time there was a decline and Russia's foreign trade surplus. In January-September, the figure decreased by 9% compared to the same period last year - up to 133.5 billion dollars. Exports for the first 9 months decreased by 1.3 percent - up to 382.7 billion dollars. The volume of imports, according to a mega-regulator, in contrast, grew by 3.4% - to 249.2 billion dollars.

"Hopes for a quick economic recovery did not materialize"

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on October 2 that the acute phase of the crisis is over , but hopes for a quick economic recovery did not materialize.

"The general conclusion is as follows - the acute phase of the crisis overcome, the current risks are under control - said the president. - But hopes for a quick recovery of the global economy are not justified." The President stressed that "the crisis of the current economic model is structural, which means long-term." Therefore, in his opinion, a slowdown feel almost all countries, including Russia.

09.27.2013, Sochi 17:34:33 The Ministry of Economic Development (Economic Development) Russia expects foreign direct investment in Russia up to 2013. will be about $ 70 billion, told journalists Deputy Minister Sergei Belyakov. He also expressed the hope that in 2014. this figure will be higher.

According to the deputy head of the Ministry of Economic Development, to effectively address the challenges facing the Russian economy, you need a rate of inflow of direct foreign investments in the Russian Federation in the 70-80 billion dollars a year. S.Belyakov said that the influx of foreign direct investment in Russia in I half-year 2013. amounted to $ 54 billion

According to Rosstat, the figure was 12.1 billion dollars difference in the data explained the deputy head of the Ministry of Economic orientation at the statistics department of the Bank of Russia. "They (CBR), a large number of sources are analyzed, they have a more objective picture," - said S.Belyakov.

As reported, according to Rosstat, in the I half of 2013. Russian economy received 98.795 billion dollars of foreign investment, which is 32.1% more than in the same period last year. In the total volume of foreign investments in the I half of 2013. foreign direct investment accounted for 12.3% of the total, an increase of 2.1 percentage points (pp) higher than in I half-year 2012.

The inflow of foreign direct investment in the Russian economy in 2012. According to Rosstat, increased compared to 2011. by 1.4% to 18.666 billion dollars

Earlier, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that the increase in foreign direct investment of up to $ 70 billion per year is needed, in particular, in order to bring the country into one of the leading economies with high levels of well-being and enter into dvadtsadku states with the most favorable conditions for running business, and as a consequence, to solve the problem of outflow of human capital.

BALI, Indonesia, October 6 (Itar-Tass) - Russia’s Economic Development Ministry believes it possible to provide 1.2 trillion roubles from the National Prosperity Fund to implement infrastructural projects, Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said.

“We’ll talk about 40 percent, but this is only our vision. This sum has not been recorded in any regulatory documents. It seems to be that 40 percent equals to 1.200 trillion roubles,” Ulyukayev said.

A total of 450 billion roubles out of this sum are being invested in the well-known projects - to reconstruct the Trans-Siberian Railway and the Baikal-Amur Mainline, as well as the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway. “We’d like other projects to be added to the priority ones,” the Russian minister said.

It will be necessary to agree with the Finance Ministry how much funding may be provided from the National Prosperity Fund to investment projects, Ulyukayev said.

“The Fund’s money can be allocated to implement the projects and not to be invested in financial instruments. We believe that investments in VEB deposits are another financial instrument,” Ulyukayev said.

MOSCOW, October 6 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s Economic Development Minister said Sunday that up to 1.2 trillion rubles ($37 billion) could be taken from a rainy-day windfall oil revenue fund and invested in infrastructure projects as the Russian economy faces a growing risk of stagnation.

The amount is 40 percent of the contents of Russia’s National Welfare Fund, a key fiscal buffer built up by the Kremlin during years of high energy prices.

“At the moment we are talking about roughly 40 percent, but this is only an idea for the time being, it’s not fixed in the required documents,” Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev told reporters in Indonesia.

President Vladimir Putin announced in a keynote June speech on economic policy that up to 450 billion rubles would be invested from the National Welfare Fund on an expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railroad, a new multilane highway encircling Moscow, and a new high speed railroad between the Russian capital and Kazan. Last week, Putin did not rule out that more money for other infrastructure ventures would also be required.

“In line with reasonable criteria, we would like to add other projects,” Ulyukayev said Sunday.

The National Welfare Fund, which currently contains the equivalent of about 4.3 percent of Russia's GDP, is forecast to contract to about 3.2 percent of Russian GDP by 2016, the World Bank said in a recent Economic Report. Another similar fund, the Reserve Fund, currently holds the equivalent of about 4 percent of the country’s GDP, according to World Bank figures.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who was responsible for the creation and building up of Russia’s two rainy day funds during the 2000s, has warned that using the National Welfare Fund in this way could lead to a serious increase in the deficit of Russia’s Pension Fund.

Officials expect economic growth in Russia to fall to 1.8 percent this year, its lowest level since the 2009 economic crisis. The slowdown has forced the government to implement budget cuts, and has stoked fears that Russia is entering a longer period of economic stagnation.