Russian Economy General News: #1

Austin wrote:^^ How would Russia increase Effeciency of its workforce , Putin was stating to increase effeciency 6x times.

As far as Ukraine going , its better Russia stop giving them Sops to join CU ... if they want to join EU then so be it ....the only concession Russia should extract is Ukraine will not join NATO and be Neutral and Black Sea Fleet remain there.

EU/Eurozone is any way a dying state and Ukraine is in ICU adopting such countries in CU with lots of SOPS will make Russia a Sick patient from the healthy state it is in

We are studying and we get asked by a western company to demonstrate for that and this and we recieve 10.000$ per month. wrote:

Austin wrote:Not sure if that debt data is reliable as it shows GDP ~ $1.5 Trillion but today GDP is $2 trillion

Viktor wrote:

Austin wrote:Not sure if that debt data is reliable as it shows GDP ~ $1.5 Trillion but today GDP is $2 trillion

Tnx Austin. Did not notice that - but nevertheless info seems true.

MOSCOW, December 10, 22:51 /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s foreign trade surplus is projected to be at 174.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2013, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach told reporters early this month.

In 2013, Russia’s export is forecasted at 515.4 billion U.S. dollars (initially - 511.4 billion U.S. dollars), while import - at 341 billion U.S. dollars (earlier - 343.5 billion U.S. dollars), the deputy minister said.

Under the ministry’s estimate, next year’s export will be at 504.6 billion U.S. dollars, while import - at 349 billion U.S. dollars. Therefore, the foreign trade surplus will make up 155.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2014.

Earlier, the Economic Development Ministry forecasted Russia’s surplus at 169.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2013 and at 152.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2014.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Ukraine’s population is collapsing and that this collapse shows no sign of abating. Everyone knows that Russia is “dying” and that it’s aging and shrinking population will doom it to economic, military, and diplomatic irrelevance.

MOSCOW, December 23. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia can and should use assets from the National Welfare Fund but it should do so very carefully, President Vladimir Putin said, adding that this “safety cushion” must be treasured.

“The decision has already been made to develop infrastructure. These are infrastructure projects that will produce noticeable, clear and tangible results. Such projects have been approved and will be implemented,” Putin said on Monday, December 23.

He admitted that global economic problems had affected Russia too. “The situation in countries with a well-established market economy has slightly improved but still it is not what it should be,” he said.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has lowered its forecast for global economic growth from 3.5 percent to 1.5 percent in 2013. “I think it will be less than that this year, something around 1.4 percent, no more. There has been a substantial decline throughout the world. Some Eurozone countries are still in recession and we will see no figures above 1 percent in the Eurozone as a whole, 0.5-0.6 percent maximum,” the head of state said.

“Russia is not much different from the global economy in this respect: the same trends, or even better, as in European countries - 1.4-1.5 [percent of growth]. We shall see after the end of the year,” he said.

At the same time, Putin warned against self-complacency. “We should overcome internal problems such as the affordability of loans, development of infrastructure and improvement of the business climate,” Putin said at a meeting of the State Council, which is an advisory body to the president, which deals with issues of the highest importance to the state as a whole.

His statement came as a reply to Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov’s remarks that the implementation of the tasks set by the State Council was hindered by serious problems and his call for investing 20 trillion roubles in the modernisation of industry and in high technologies and security of people, and another 5-6 trillion roubles in the implementation of the president’s decrees issued in May 2012 after his inauguration.

“In order to implement the programme as a whole, GDP should grow at a rate of at least 5 percent. If we look at the forecasts made by our economists three years ago, they said that GDP would grow by about 8 percent this year. But we have slid down to less than 1.5 percent and there are no signs of improvement next year,” Zyuganov said.

He said China would report 7.5 percent this year, the United States 2.4 percent, and the global economy would grow by 3 percent this year and 4 percent next year.

Zyuganov said Russia needed a new financial and economic policy in order to fulfill its goals.

MOSCOW, December 23, 21:39 /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s federal budget deficit may be at about 0.5-0.6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2013, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told reporters on Monday.

Proceeding from the Finance Ministry’s estimates, this year’s federal budget deficit will amount to 400 billion roubles, while revenues will make up 12.9 trillion roubles and expenditures - 13.3 trillion roubles (USD 1 = RUB 32.95).

“This year’s deficit is projected at 0.5-0.6 percent of the GDP,” Siluanov said, adding, “I am hopeful that it will be close to a half percent.”

According to the minister, this year’s petroleum deficit gains 10.2 percent of the GDP. In the future, the ministry hopes for the decrease of the indicator to 9.4 percent in 2014 and to 8.4 percent in 2016.

Moreover, the Finance Ministry plans “to return to the accumulation of money in the Reserve Fund” already in 2014, Siluanov said. The finance minister also pointed to the need of tougher budget discipline.

MOSCOW, December 23. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia should look for the causes of its economic failures within, not outside, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov told TV channel Rossiya-24 Monday.

“Efficiency and costs are number one issue,” he believes. “We should not be blaming bad foreign markets, but trying to find the reasons for failures inside the country.”

Shuvalov added the authorities were aware of the underlying reasons for the failures as well as the need to work for greater efficiency within the budget opportunities available.

Meanwhile, high oil prices are not an excuse to spend as much as you can: “We should restrain ourselves here, those in power should restrain themselves, setting certain limits society can easily understand.”

Shuvalov noted a number of the primary issues, among them that of fighting with offshore schemes. This is important, he said, both economically, for instance for the purpose of eliminating tax evasion, double taxing or other “fiddling”, and psychologically.

“We should have more trust towards our own jurisdiction. Why is any other insular jurisdiction better than our own, Russian?” Shuvalov wondered.

About his own assets, Shuvalov reiterated they had long been entirely transferred to Russia.

Austin wrote:Not sure where to post but

Russia's Economy Is Decelerating Sharply, But It's Still Close To Full Employment

How Putin Outfoxed the West

MOSCOW, December 24 (Itar-Tass) - Russian banks will suffer moderately, if the US regulator toughens its monetary policy next year, says the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) Financial Stability Review. Amid uneven global economic growth some developed countries, primarily the US, may start to unwind quantitative easing (QE) earlier than the others.

“The first consequence of QE tapering by the U.S. Fed will be growth of long-term interest rates, since the regulator targets short-term rates separately. The yield curve’s upward turnaround for long-term rates may have a negative effect on debt market environment. Sovereign debt markets of the countries with overly high state debt may prove the most sensitive to an increase of long-term rates. Troubled Eurozone countries may suffer most,” the CBR believes.

Meanwhile, Russia’s position in terms of sovereign and private debt risks looks quite steady. Russia is among the countries with the lowest state debt relative to GDP. As of October 1, 2013, Russian state internal debt accounted for 7.7 percent of the GDP, which is several times less than that of the other BRICS countries. Internal corporate debt (non-financial organizations’ loans in Russian banks and issued bonds) made up 36.5 percent of the GDP, whereas the total external debt amounted to 35.2 percent of the GDP, where private sector (banks and other sectors) makes up 31.3 percent of GDP.

“The effect of rate increase on the Russian banking sector’s net profit in foreign assets and liabilities may be limited because of low gapping. Interest risk’s impact on the non-financial sector is also moderate,” the Central Bank believes.

To estimate potential risks for Russian banks ensuing from financial market volatility following QE wind-up, the CBR has evaluated their securities portfolio. As of September 1, 2013, investments in bonds in shares accounted for 11 percent and 1 percent respectively. Revaluation of securities portfolio may have a substantial effect on certain banks and the banking sector as a whole. Stress scenario suggests an increase in yields on Russian sovereign bonds by 200 points, for other bonds - by 350 points, while stock prices are expected to dip 25 percent. The analysis has found out most of the banking system is resistant against negative scenarios in the stock market in terms of capital adequacy: capital adequacy ratio Н1 after stress is estimated at 12.1 percent (real figure as of October 1 was 13.4 percent).

Besides, adverse effect of tougher FRS policy may show in swap market, where transactions are prone to currency and interest risks. Interest rate swaps in one currency (more than half of the market) and cross-currency interest rate swap (about a third) prevailed in Russian interest rate swap market in the second and third quarters of 2013, with the rouble and dollar being the key currencies occupying over 90 percent of transactions, mostly medium-term. According to the CBR, if interest rates grow by 200 basis points, while the rouble depreciates 30 percent, Russian banks’ losses on the interest rate swap will not exceed 10 billion roubles (about $303 million). However, in the future, given dynamic development of the interest rate swap market, risks may escalate for certain market players.

The CBR report points out “a considerable share of non-residents in the market - in more than 95 percent of transactions, one of counterparties was a foreign company or a subsidiary of a foreign bank holding registered in Russia. Most transactions on the market are intragroup.”

The mentioned estimates indicate Russian banks’ potential interest losses are moderate. The estimated decline of Н1 below 10 percent as a result of stress-test of certain banks’ interest risk, is rather connected not to the scale of negative revaluation of loan portfolios but low capital adequacy before the stress, the regulator believes.