Russian Economy General News: #1

CEBR GDP Figures for 2013

Russian Total External Debt according to Central Bank Figure as of September 2013 is around ~ $719 Billion , General Govt Debt accounts ~ $63 billion

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=credit_statistics/debt_est_new_e.htm&pid=svs&sid=itm_44271

Key Economic Indicators in 2013
http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx?file=macro/macro_13_e.htm&pid=macro_sub&sid=oep

Russian economic growth slowdown tendency persists

Austin wrote:Russian economic growth slowdown tendency persists

From your link:

- GDP growth = 1.4%
- debt = 10.5% GDP
- reserves = 700 bin $
- budget surplus = 19.8 bin $

Not bad!

Oil and gas outweighs in worsening budget structure, minister says

MOSCOW, December 26. /ITAR-TASS/. Oil and gas revenue dominated Russia's budget revenue again this year, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Income from other sectors of the economy fell short of expectations by about 550 billion rubles (about $16.7 billion), he told Russia-24 TV channel.

Budget structure had changed considerably for the worse this year, he said, noting “The share of oil and gas revenue has surpassed non-oil and gas earnings again.”

High oil prices, currently about $108 a barrel, had kept the budget deficit at about 0.5 to 0.6 of GDP against the estimated 0.7%, Siluanov said.

More thorough budget execution was needed, he said, calling planned expenditure “unbearable”. The government had already set budget ceilings. Federal programs previously approved should be revised by next February, the minister added.

http://rt.com/business/china-usa-economy-ranking-820/

Russian Federation—Concluding Statement for the December 2013 Staff Visit

link

Austin, have you any links/info that point to dependence/part of oil and gas/ mineral export as part of Russian GDP?

I managed to dig up this WB report but its no latter than 2011. 

LINK

Austin wrote:http://rt.com/business/china-usa-economy-ranking-820/

ppp or nominal?
Also i find it hard to believe that indias gdp at 2028 is only 6 trillion, and russia too only 4 trillion.

Thats Nominal GDP

Of course this RT prediction has no point. China will surpass USA in terms of PPP GDP at latest in 2018 and this year already India surpassed Japan as the new #3   
Until 2028 there is zero chance that dollar will remain the reserve currency and due to this most western economies including certainly USA and Japan will go bust!

For Russia things are not that clear though. It is possible that it will still lag behind Germany (certainly not England) and if not been bankrupt, to Japan as well.
This is ridiculous performance clearly. Both countries suffer disastrous demographics, are tiny compare to R. with very limited resources and with smaller population.
For some reason the huge attempts to boost economy not yet registered in official numbers and market reputation.

GDP figures indeed can be misleading be it nominal or PPP.

For eg US GDP figure is 16 T but the Debt is over running GDP .....it means its acting more debt to its economy then what it earns and that figure is going to rise.

Same goes for Japan which is at far higher debt and EU which has average debt of 90 %.

All they do is Print Money to roll over and it will have disaster consequences in years ahead.

Russia might have a small GDP $ ~$2.1 trillion .... but it has far lower Public Debt and has Balanced Budget which means it does not over spend it and tries to live within its means.

Although too much of bureaucracy and corruption means its potential is not being realised and Oil Prices being a saving grace.

Although when the Economy of US Implodes countries like Russia would have better chance to survive.

Things like Per Capita Income , Poverty Level , Infant Mortality , Spending on Health Care , Good Public System are also things that really matter and that is something Russia has to improve and long way to go

I am sure no common citizen of the country ever wakes up looking at their GDP but how the above factors provided by Government that affects their day to day life really matters.

Hannibal Barca wrote:
For Russia things are not that clear though. It is possible that it will still lag behind Germany (certainly not England) and if not been bankrupt, to Japan as well.
This is ridiculous performance clearly. Both countries suffer disastrous demographics, are tiny compare to R. with very limited resources and with smaller population.
For some reason the huge attempts to boost economy not yet registered in official numbers and market reputation.

Yeah, its just ridiculous. germany is clearly handicapped by having to support eur union, japan is stagnating for the longest time now...

Collegeboy16:

Yeah, its just ridiculous. germany is clearly handicapped by having to support eur union

The opposite is true.

You can exclude entire EU from the list they only have debts and will have higher and higher debts.
The ESM (Euro Stability Mechanism) does not collect money from EU states to repay debts and stabilize the economy of a country no, they give this money to countries under dictatoric conditions, like to Greece were give over 700 bln Euroes and they had to purchase military equipment with it, pay further diplomatic aggreements and it was the banks that has received the money. Nothing of this shit helps greece only the banksters.

Germany will never be able to repay their debts same as USA, this economies are dead. It doesn't matter how much you earn when your debts are much higher and raising.

Debt means you have no money. GDP doesn't matter anymore when you are in a state of increasing debts from month to month.

Agree , All that Euro and US does is print fiat money and try to roll over by printing more money , breaking all the fundamental of economics we know off.

Its just a matter of time when the Debt bubble blows off ......country who are smart are buying Gold as much as they can , namely China and Russia ....more for china.

So when that happens is it really bad, like 2k8 bad or great depression bad?
Sh1t, will my country be affected too, coz our economy is tight with murica's?

Russia is facing some stagnation but its growth is actually higher than countrues like Japan. Industrial growth exists but lower than last years growth rate as well as there was more emphasis on major deals for oil and gas sales. Predictions suck because it would mean current figures not changing and riding along same growth rate, which is never the case.

I remember when not long ago, early this year, US was praising its growth, which was around 1% and yet Russia is stagnating with higher growth rate.

It will be interesting to see what things will look like when Titanium Valley, skolkovo, Technopolis GS and other industrial parks are finished? Or the investments of far east are complete.

At least work is being done by dealing witg banks causing economic damage with laundering billions and exporting of money from rich.

Is there any chance that russian GDP will be in the top 5 by the end of the 2030s or will there just be blind promises with it never exceeding the GDP of UK or germany?

Anyway what's the main reason why russia's GDP is currently still lower than these 2 small compared to her countries? How can the RF ever hope to compete with the US with a GDP that hasn't changed in the last 5 years? How is the caste mostly sh*thole conditions india producing such massive GDP compared to russia even when russia has a technological, territory, and livng standards advantages?

well custom union- russia ,belarus ,kazahstan -GDP is 2,4 trillion same as britain.

Many reasons:

- Unfair advantages due to politics: Many countries do not purchase Russian goods because they are not as cheap and are not controlled by either EU or US companies.
- Cost: products are cheaper from other countries as labour is cheaper.
- Human capital. India has 1.2B people. Lots of cheap labour and churning out more skilled workers because the # of people.
- Economic polocies - As you have noticed, US survives on continuous debt, same with Japan. What does UK produce? Nothing but Fashion. There are barely any factories left in UK. They rely on inflating themselves out of a problem or its investments abroad or its banking. Germany actually relies on an actual conmodity: heavy industry. But also investments abroad.

- Supporting others - while Germany is continuously bailing out other EU nations, they still hold a superiority in terms of its sale of commodities to these coubtries and other EU ones. While Russia supports many regions and countries where they spend their money on German or Chinese commodities. But there is still sales to CIS countries, they just are not wealthy like the ones Germany sells to.

Lots of factors really. Russia could be bigger but has to deal with the issue of the underground market and improve the spending habbits of its own people, while relying on sales of their products dometic and abroad. Unfortunately, many still prefer to build a german or a chinese product in Russia than their own, just because of ignorance.

Dont worry. UK and others way of financing its economy cannot last forever. Actually, things can really change for UK for the worst when they no longer control precious metals and rare earth resources in the stock market, or US when people stop trading oil and gas in USD and go to the alternative to world bank or INF, and go to BRICS bank.

A lot of wealth is not due to an actual end product in many western countries. Its about banking, trade and investments, or control of resources in international stock. Then there is just massive amoints of human captial were they are taxible, lack of regulations to save money, and or building up a bubble like the housing industry in both china and india.

Russia on the other hand has massive intellect and strong industry, but lacks in banking sector and regulation of industry (changing) and there are various areas of the country that are ubder developed and not producing wealth but just a burden. Many villages are like that.

If they fix the issue of actually developong these areas, move people out of villages and into towns to save ob utilities and improve human capital, while actually cracking a whip on the areas getting funding but going nowhere (Chechnya is a good example), then things can change. Oh, and change the image of many of their enterprises.

sepheronx wrote:
I remember when not long ago, early this year, US was praising its growth, which was around 1% and yet Russia is stagnating with higher growth rate.

Really i thought it was 4.1% as mentioned below, or am i misunderstanding something?
US Real GDP Growth is at 4.10%

Rus should be more efficient in everything. I mean there is still enormous potential yet tapped while other major economies are close too or are already red lining. Sort of like their tanks, with 3 crew instead of usual 4, they should try not to compete head on but assymetrically. Like in shipbuilding, if they cant quite match the building of cargo carriers then why not make ones optimized for the arctic.
Also agriculture, why not breed cold-resistant cows that you can leave in steppes then come back for slaughtering time. also railroads, why not have something like roll on roll off train wagons where you park your car instead of going to long highway drives. Railways are more efficuent anyway and if sufficiently developed would be new silk road along with artic.

AlfaT8 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:
I remember when not long ago, early this year, US was praising its growth, which was around 1% and yet Russia is stagnating with higher growth rate.

Really i thought it was 4.1% as mentioned below, or am i misunderstanding something?
US Real GDP Growth is at 4.10%

Maybe, buy 1.4 or so was first quarter. Could be higher but numbers can be scewed as gdp growth is accountrd for debt growth as well, as debt pretty much is on par with nominal gdp. Although, many enterprises have moved to automation this year so production is moving back home. Something which Russia needs to mimic.