Russian Economy General News: #1

So, its official now. 2013 GDP grew 1.4%

Russian GDP grew 1.4% in 2013

Austin wrote:Indeed I was looking for stastics for FDI in 2013 linked below is some details

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2014-01/29/c_126076489.htm

Among BRICS 2013 FDI Stastics

Brazil - $63 billion
Russia - $94 billion
India - $28 billion
China - $127 billion
South Africa - $10 billion

Why is foreign investment so low in India? I can understand South Africa but not on India.

Viktor wrote:So, its official now. 2013 GDP grew 1.4%

Russian GDP grew 1.4% in 2013

Guess they will have to really go at those banks and people stealing money. As well, they need to offer incentives so companies whom are making small profit but cannot afford to modernize production (to reduce overhead costs and increase production efficiency) so be able to do so.

India has low FDI because many projects are caught in Legal or Environmental hurdles and sometimes combination of both.

Poor governance makes the matter more worse.

Hannibal is this true  ?



Yudaeva: for turning the ruble into a reserve currency is needed float

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https://www.russiadefence.net/viewtopic.forum?t=2963

Several countries have issued their assets in rubles. Accordingly, the ruble is becoming a reserve currency and a more modern sense - as the currency in which the assets are denominated in other countries ",



Which are these countries who have issues their assets in rubles ?

Foreign direct investments in Russia grow by 16%

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_01_29/Foreign-direct-investments-in-Russia-grow-by-16-2340/

Who can explain what this means and its implications?

Russia eases access to bond market for foreign investors

Viktor wrote:Who can explain what this means and its implications?

Russia eases access to bond market for foreign investors

Means easy FII money in Stock Exchange ....but these are hot money they can come and swell in quick and go out as quickly and it happened in case of India.

FDI is what they should target the more the merrier and money from FDI stays invested for long and helps growth and investment.

Austin wrote:Hannibal is this true  ?



Yudaeva: for turning the ruble into a reserve currency is needed float

http://ria.ru/economy/20140129/992035299.html

"The ruble is already the de facto reserve currency, at least partially. Anyway, many of our neighbors who are pursuing a policy of a fixed exchange rate, cart included Russian ruble, and in this sense for them already ruble a reserve currency. Several countries have issued their assets in rubles. Accordingly, the ruble is becoming a reserve currency and a more modern sense - as the currency in which the assets are denominated in other countries ", - writes Yudaeva oversees the Central Bank monetary policy, the article on the website of the International Financial Center.

It recognizes that to improve the role of the ruble as a reserve currency will have to develop the tools of financial market and financial infrastructure as a whole. "The decline in inflation is also one of the essential factors in the currency conversion back: high inflation makes the currency unattractive to her nomination to the assets. All reserve currencies - is a currency with a floating exchange rate (about the Chinese Yuan may speak as an exception)," - writes Yudaeva.


She wonders whether the resource-based economy to be economies reserve currency? And what economic policy in this case should be carried out? "These issues also require us informed response. Example, Australia and Canada - two countries with the reserve currency, a floating exchange rate, a stable economy, low inflation. I think that we can not attract the same ratio of economic performance," - she muses.


Yudaeva confirms that the Central Bank is going to refuse to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the ruble, while noting that even central banks whose currencies are considered redundant in recent years resorted to intervention. So, two years ago the ECB during the next wave of the crisis has made the swap with the Fed and the banks credited in dollars.


"In any case, it is clear that the issues of financial stability - one of those where the tool is being used central bank intervention in the currency markets, and we do reserve the opportunity to develop and use such tools" - adds the first deputy chairman.

Yes it is. But is not as impressive as it may sound   
It is just that some countries with close economic ties with Russia like the CIS have parts of their deposits in Rubles. Something to be expected anyway.
Additionally Ruble's exchange rates are certainly not stable enough unlike what this lady says.

Viktor wrote:
Much has been done during 2013, I hope the pace will continue and grow  

83 medical facilities finished in 2013

130 kindergardens finished in 2013

Construction of Russian seaports

199 sports facilities

New agricultural enterprises (only the biggest ones)

200 medium and large new productions (51 launched with the participation of foreign investors, 134 built "from scratch")

Kindergardens: 195 (not all counting was finished)

New schools: 102

LINK

LINK

325 kindergardens finished in 2013

LINK

Russian GDP to add 2-2.2%
Economy
January 31, 16:44 UTC+4

Sberbank’s growth would outperform that of the market

MOSCOW, January 31. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s largest bank Sberbank estimates Russian GDP growth this year at about 2-2.2%, Deputy Chairman of the bank’s board, Alexander Morozov, told journalists on Friday.

Inflation was expected at about 5.5% and the oil price — at more than $100 a barrel, he added. The bank forecasts 11-12% growth of the banks’ corporate loan portfolio, while retail portfolio is expected to add 20-25%. Retail deposits are estimated to expand 18-19%.

Sberbank’s growth would outperform that of the market, Morozov added.

As reported earlier, Deputy Chairman of the Board at the Bank of Russia Mikhail Sukhov estimates that Russian banks’ corporate loan portfolio will increase by more than 10% in 2014, while retain portfolio will add less than 25%. His forecast for retail deposits’ growth is about 19%.

Ministry of Economic Development’s official projections for GDP growth and inflation this year are 2.5% and 4.8% respectively. The CBR expects inflation at 5%.

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the print, taper, print, taper talk that has led to the economic and financial chaos that finds the Financial Times opining that one should do like the Bundesbank did and demand physical delivery of your gold before your wealth becomes pixellated. In the second half, Max interviews John Mauldin, author of CODE RED: How to Protect Your Savings From the Coming Crisis, about money printing, inflation/deflation, gold prices and wages.

http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episode-556-max-keiser-355/

Russia’s GDP makes RUB 66,689 billion in 2013
Economy
January 31, 18:11 UTC+4

MOSCOW, January 31, 16:16 /ITAR-TASS/. Russia’s GDP volume has made 66 trillion 689.1 billion rubles in current prices in 2013, Russia’s State Statistics Service said on Friday.Annual GDP growth has reached 1.3%.

The country’s GDP volume has amounted to 61 trillion 810.8 billion rubles in 2012.

Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach has also made public the GDP growth estimate at 1.3% in 2013 earlier on Friday, though on Wednesday Minister of Economic Development Aleksey Ulyukayev stated that this figure had made 1.4% that corresponds to a forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development, though “it cannot be considered satisfactory anyway.”

According Russian State Statistics Service reports, the highest year-on-year growth was reported in fisheries (3.8%), agriculture (3.2%), health care and social services (3.2%). The largest fall was reported in construction industry (2.4% down).

How much is  66 trillion 689.1 billion rubles in USD GDP Figure ?

Austin wrote:How much is  66 trillion 689.1 billion rubles in USD GDP Figure ?

1.895 trillion $ (something does not add up)

Viktor wrote:

Austin wrote:How much is  66 trillion 689.1 billion rubles in USD GDP Figure ?

1.895 trillion $ (something does not add up)

I suspect the devalution of rouble has caused the reduction of GDP.

Austin wrote:

Viktor wrote:

Austin wrote:How much is  66 trillion 689.1 billion rubles in USD GDP Figure ?

1.895 trillion $ (something does not add up)

I suspect the devalution of rouble has caused the reduction of GDP.

You are right, I just thought of that and went on to find the difference in question. Look here

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=12h

31. December 2013 Rub/Dollar = 0.03043

31. Januar 2014 Rub/Dollar = 0.02846

which means that the same amount of Rubles would during 31.December 2013 worth 2.03 billion $

Ruble has slided aprox 6.5% against the dollar. Now who understands the economy on the level to explain the implications of this?

What it would mean is the GDP wiped out around $120 Billion from economy due to devaluation . although i suspect these are just notional values.

Could be the real impact could be felt in inflation , higher cost of import etc

Austin wrote:What it would mean is the GDP wiped out around $120 Billion from economy due to devaluation . although i suspect these are just notional values.

Could be the real impact could be felt in inflation , higher cost of import etc

Im not sure. Amount of rubles is increasing. Money can not be wiped out because currency slided in comparison with other as same as it can not grow out of tin air because currency

change for the better in comparison with other.

People buying things in rubles will be just fine as long as they are buying Russian products which will become more competitive for the Russians and the rest of the world.

Problem will be for the Russians buying foreign products as they will become more expensive.

Not just Russia but even India got significantly impacted with Rupee Devaluation and Slow Growth

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/burPSwwZ4JstNqkBGGWXCP/Economy-grows-45-in-fiscal-2013.html

With the revised GDP numbers, the size of the Indian economy now stands at $1.6 trillion in 2012-13 at the rupee’s Friday value of 62.66 against the dollar.

So from being a $2 Trillion Economy a year or two back   thanks to Rupee Fall and Low Growth we are now $1.6 Trillion Economy

http://businesstoday.intoday.in/story/govt-revises-2012-13-growth-downwards-to-4.5percent/1/202882.html

Per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs 67,839 in 2012-13 as against Rs 61,855 in the previous year, a growth of 9.7 per cent as against an increase of 14.5 per cent during the previous year.

Our Per Capita was already low in BRICS and now India Per capita is also reduced to ~ $1085 compared to USD 1500

Why did this occurred?

Viktor wrote:
Much has been done during 2013, I hope the pace will continue and grow  

83 medical facilities finished in 2013

130 kindergardens finished in 2013

Construction of Russian seaports

199 sports facilities

New agricultural enterprises (only the biggest ones)

200 medium and large new productions (51 launched with the participation of foreign investors, 134 built "from scratch")

New schools: 102

325 kindergardens finished in 2013

450 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)

LINK

Viktor wrote:Why did this occurred?

Rupee fell like any thing when Fed decided to withdraw QE or the threat to do so was done.

India has high Current Account Deficit and the growth is slowing down ......India also has high budget deficit in the world.

Rupee was 54.23 against USD in Jan 2013 ,  Today it is 62.50 in Jan 2014 
http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-rupee-vs-dollar-from-1990-to-2013/20130612.htm#13


All in All bad sign for Indian Economy till the next election is done and a new Government comes some time in May 2014

Austin wrote:

Viktor wrote:Why did this occurred?

Rupee fell like any thing when Fed decided to withdraw QE or the threat to do so was done.

India has high Current Account Deficit and the growth is slowing down ......India also has high budget deficit in the world.

Rupee was 54.23 against USD in Jan 2013 ,  Today it is 62.50 in Jan 2014 
http://www.rediff.com/business/slide-show/slide-show-1-rupee-vs-dollar-from-1990-to-2013/20130612.htm#13


All in All bad sign for Indian Economy till the next election is done and a new Government comes some time in May 2014

I never understood India's economics. I tried to ask my wife what is going on, but I don't get a real answer. I don't get much answers from many. As an outsider, all I can say is that from what I see, is that the nation is too split. What I mean is, too many CM's are trying to have their own little power in their regions/provinces, and everyone is fighting for power (fighting in the sense of soft. Undermining each other). With the elections coming up, it seems that Congress is pooched and BJP will have authority. If they get authority, hopefully they will be able to unite the people. But I feel that the Muslim population of India will go bonkers over Modi being PM.

India has a recipe to have a massive economy and do better than most. They have a large population, large amount of skilled and unskilled labor (meaning cheaper wages), good universities, and a well developed tech field. Only issue I see is energy (need of oil), and so they need to import that. But so does China. I feel that Indian organizations (energy especially) are not as aggressive as China's and do not have many assets (oil wells lets say) outside of India. Maybe the dealings with Iran will help their country.

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So it seems that the marketing of Sochi (sales of souvenirs) has proven quite good for Russia. Over a $1B in sales.

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/46574/

user78  http://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/46609/
02/02/14 10:28:06

7. Although Russia Russia its reserves of "black gold" is almost behind the previous countries - 6% of world reserves, oil is already here can result in 22 years.

Again, these "22 years" ..    
Only proven oil reserves (all categories) in Russia is estimated at 28.8 billion tons. Even with a record production of 523 million tonnes per year will be enough for 55 years.

In addition, Russia's largest reserves of shale oil in the world, which is now mined in full swing states:

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Russia has the largest reserves of shale oil - 75 billion barrels. For Russia and the United States (58 billion barrels), followed by China (32 billion barrels), Argentina (27 billion barrels) and Libya (26 billion barrels).

This is another 20 years of production at 523 million tons per year.

Huge oil reserves (undiscovered) are on our Arctic shelf. Here are rough estimates:

In the Arctic, according to Russian experts, is now "hidden" about 80 billion tons of fuel and 80 percent of this volume constitute gas reserves.

another 30 years of oil production by 533 million tons per year.

And another huge untapped oil fields on the mainland:

Major oil and gas regions of Russia and one of the largest oil producing regions of the world is the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Despite the fact that the county takes only 3% of the territory of Russia, he was for many years, provides 57% of oil production in the country. It opened more than 500 oil and gas deposits, reserves of about 20 billion tons. Probable oil reserves are estimated at 35 billion tons.
...
Today KhMAO ranks first in Russia in terms of oil production. In 2011, the share of Yugra had more than 50% of total Russian production of hydrocarbons. All extracted oil - more than 10 billion tons - is only a third of what has yet to get here. A total reserves of oil in the bowels of the region could reach 100 billion tons

Another plus 70 years of production at a minimum.

Total oil will last us another 170-200 years.    
Meanwhile, Russia is also one of the leaders in natural gas reserves, as well as in the development of nuclear energy.

Viktor wrote:
Much has been done during 2013, I hope the pace will continue and grow  

83 medical facilities finished in 2013

130 kindergardens finished in 2013

Construction of Russian seaports

199 sports facilities

New agricultural enterprises (only the biggest ones)

200 medium and large new productions (51 launched with the participation of foreign investors, 134 built "from scratch")

New schools: 102

325 kindergardens finished in 2013

450 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)

LINK

555 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)

LINK