Russian Economy General News: #1

Aggregate assets of Russian banks reached 57.4 trillion rubles   

http://www.sdelanounas.ru/blogs/46611/

57.4 trillion= USD 1.6 Trillion

Asset growth in 2013 decreased significantly compared with the results of previous years. By the year-end assets of Russian credit organizations grew by 16% compared to 19% a year earlier and 23% in 2011. While in absolute terms was again achieved a record growth - 7.91 trillion rubles. against 7.88 trillion rubles. in 2012. Thus, on January 1, 2014 the amount of the total assets of Russian banks reached 57.4 trillion rubles., Representing 84.5% of GDP in 2013, compared with 80% a year earlier. This testifies to the growing contribution of the banking sector in the GDP, which is also confirmed by the fact that the value added industry "financial activities" in 2013 grew by 12% compared to 1.3% on average in other industries.
 
The slowdown in growth of bank assets is largely a result of slowing economic growth and a series of regulatory measures by the Central Bank of unsecured lending market cooling population, which acted engine of growth of the banking sector in recent years. Sharp slowdown in consumer lending is one of the major changes in trends of Russian banks in 2013.

I read predictions, that in 2015, 2016 China will become the largest economy in the World, not because China will grow that much, but because US will fall that much, and that in time to 2018 Chinese currency backed by gold will replace US dollar as reserve currency. Euro and EU will crash too. How is Russia ready for those changes?

medo wrote:I read predictions, that in 2015, 2016 China will become the largest economy in the World, not because China will grow that much, but because US will fall that much, and that in time to 2018 Chinese currency backed by gold will replace US dollar as reserve currency. Euro and EU will crash too. How is Russia ready for those changes?

US will push economic control on others, and inflate their way out to victory. As well, China pretty much pinned the Yuan against USD, so that it rests below the USD, even if USD goes down, so that they can have continuous cheap products and people will buy it. For them, it works as they have huge control (as of right now) on industrial products. So Yuan cannot be reserve currency, especially since it is not a floating currency and tied to USD.

How Russia’s energy sector is eyeing a bigger game beyond the Olympics

[quote="Viktor"]

Viktor wrote:
Much has been done during 2013, I hope the pace will continue and grow  

83 medical facilities finished in 2013

130 kindergardens finished in 2013

Construction of Russian seaports

199 sports facilities

New agricultural enterprises (only the biggest ones)

200 medium and large new productions (51 launched with the participation of foreign investors, 134 built "from scratch")

New schools: 102

325 kindergardens finished in 2013

450 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)

LINK

555 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)

LINK

698 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)

LINK

Right after the OI games, Putin is going to Iran where is expected to sign the mega deal with Iran.

"We do not recognize the unilateral sanctions of the United States and the European Union regarding Iran, that is why we solely put our national interests first when carrying out trade and economic cooperation with Tehran," the ambassador said.
"Russia is an independent country and is implementing an independent policy," Dzhagaryan said.

LINK

flamming_python wrote:Good to see some major success in closing the kindergarden gap   

I know but it tells its tale about Russian population politics

764 kindergardens finished in 2013 (numbers keep increasing)
LINK

  

Envoy: Russian Minister to Propose Oil-for-Railway Deal with Iran in Upcoming Visit

Austin wrote:both article makes an interesting read

State-run Russian oil behemoth Rosneft helps Vladi­mir Putin tighten his economic grip


UPDATE 1-Olympics-Games unlikely to boost Russian economy - Moody's

Neither of those are an interesting read, as neither of those comes at a surprise.  I think it was mentioned quite a while ago on mp.net that the Olympics is more likely to be loss of funds than it is to be a gain of funds.  Only a few if not 1, Olympics in recent history was a financial success, and that was the one here in Calgary, Canada way back when.  Rosneft on the other hand, is quickly gaining traction, and they are the main supplier of funds for the development of the far east regions, which is something around $30B in Rosneft funding.

I wouldn't but too much weight on these articles (being where they come from), but they are not a surprise at all.

I am trying to find that list that Bitnkr over at mp.net posted about Russophobia in the western press, and the list from least to worst. Maybe a good indicator for you Austin on where you read your news. But I can tell you myself (not my experience, but what my father experienced with Western news even pertaining to an incident he was involved in), do not trust our news or anyone else's news. Most of it is a fabricated lie around a small amount of truth.

The interesting thing in there is the data from Rosneft ...would be interesting to see how much gain or loss the olympics makes financially after it all ends.

Austin wrote:The interesting thing in there is the data from Rosneft ...would be interesting to see how much gain or loss the olympics makes financially after it all ends.

I would imagine the loss to be pretty significant.  Well, it isn't really loss exactly, as Sochi was in need of infrastructure:



If they didn't host the olympics there, then they would need to do something else in order to get that city up and running with new infrastructure, and it would have probably cost close to the same.  They also made a $1B revenue in just advertisement alone for the olympics (I posted it here).  So that is some money made.  Now Sochi is more or less on the map.  The amusement park (regardless what the western media will say) is meant for after the olympics, so it was already pre-determined that it wont be finished before hand.  It will be a loss, but after the many years and tourism that it can come by with both domestic (so people from middle class to Oligarches buying property) to many CIS and even Chinese tourists arriving in Sochi as a good getaway.  The idea of building an amusement park as well as just keeping it a beach resort is smart, as there is stuff to do and see all year round (with the ski hills and the olympic stadiums in place) that will make Sochi a far more attractive place to go on vacation than abroad (cheaper too).

^^ Yes they need to make Sochi an attractive tourist destination for not only Russians who go to Europe but also Europe and ROW ...thats would be the greatest way to generate revenue.

It probably is the best tourism place in Russia but they need to market it and make is top destination place to visit in Europe.

Imagine how many Russian tourists will come to spend their holiday at Sochi instead of Turkey or somewhere else for instance specially after OI promotion and leave their money there.

Formula-1 will be in Sochi etc.

Deripaska: Sochi need to invest 10-15% of funds spent on the Olympics

The "free press" is a founding American myth. All press is someone's narrative and by definition not objective. In the case of the modern corporate media, there is at least a 60 year history of CIA and US government direct influence and management of US media dating back to the late 1940s. Every single major media source in America has some type of government "liason". The US government maintains offices devoted to informational warfare and propaganda. This is no secret. A modern evolution of this has been private contractors tasked with manipulating social media and acting as "cognitive intrusion agents" to influence public opinion. A US journalist faces decades in prison for investigating this fact:
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/02/04/free-barrett-brown/

World 2nd  

Gold production in Russia increased 12.6% year-on-year in 2013 to reach 254.24 tons

Central Bank should buy all the gold produced in Russia .....Keep stocking gold thats what would matter in long run.

Austin wrote:Central Bank should buy all the gold produced in Russia .....Keep stocking gold thats what would matter in long run.

And thats exactly what they are doing   

Russian Banks Bought Almost 90% of Russia’s 2013 Gold Output

^^ Thats good keep stocking Gold ....Russia should atleast have higher Gold Reserves than Germany , perhaps second only to US and China.

Now here is a warning from Obama on any body dealing with Iran

US warns businesses against operating in Iran ( RT )

The US will take on businesses that violate sanctions against Iran, said President Barack Obama at a joint news conference at the White House with French President Francois Hollande. "They do so at their own peril right now because we will come down on them like a ton of bricks with the sanctions we control," he said. Obama added that France and other allies are committed to enforcing the current sanctions in order to stop Iran from expanding its nuclear program. In February Iran resumed talks with the UN nuclear watchdog in Tehran concerning its nuclear program and sanctions relief.

Foreign investors ditching France for Russia

Check EIA projections on Oil Prices .......whats more relevant for Russia is Brent Crude Oil Projections and Ural Blend from Russia over laps Brent Price.

The worrisome part is for most part of 2014-2020 the Brent Price it projects an average of  $ 94

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=AEO2014ER&subject=3-AEO2014ER&table=12-AEO2014ER&region=0-0&cases=ref2014er-d102413a

While Russian Budget takes price at $93-94 till 2016    .......Hope this does not turn to be true.

It will also impact SAP 2020

trying to sabotage armata eh, maybe fsb can cook up something like stxnet and bl0 the fck up of a competing oil producers infrasructure.
the other side did it, prolly overdue for revenge.

Check out this very long but very interesting report by Russian Energy Agency and the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences ( as official as it gets )   



The Russian part starts at page 149

http://www.eriras.ru/files/Outlook_2012_eng_light.pdf

The positive news is Russia can maintain their Oil Output to more than 500 million tons till 2035 which is the present rate of extraction.

The negitive side is it will require an annual investement of 2.5 Trillion rouble ( $75 Billion ) each year till  2035


Very interesting report read it in full if you can

Vlad sees the light   

Putin: Hydrocarbons can no longer drive economic growth in Russia

NOVO OGAREVO, February 12. /ITAR-TASS/. President Vladimir Putin said hydrocarbons could no longer serve as a driving force of economic growth in Russia.

According to the Finance Ministry, oil and gas revenues account for almost 50% of budget income in Russia. Economists have been urging the Russian authorities over the past several years to reduce dependence on oil and gas export and increase the share of non-hydrocarbon revenues.

At a meeting with members of the government on Wednesday, February 12, Putin asked Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev to report on the progress in preparing a long-term macroeconomic forecast, including reserves for economic development.

“We have discussed this many times, I mean the situation in the global and national economy, and there is no point in repeating our common opinion that although the previous sources of growth may not be completely exhausted, they certainly are not as effective as before,” Putin said. “We always expected growth and more growth, and higher and higher energy prices, which are staying at a relatively good level, but they can no longer produce the kind of growth we saw before.”

Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiullina said in late January that “the previous economic model based on the constant growth of oil prices has exhausted itself, and a new economic model based on private investments in competitive industries should be put in place.”


“Oil revenues were invested in the economy, industry and construction. Oil prices are high now, but they do not grow all the time. Therefore the model should be changed,” Nabiullina said.

She believes that a new model should bring investments into competitive non-resource industries, she said, adding that “this money will start paying off in three to five years.” Until then, economic growth rates will stay low, she cautioned.


Putin asked Ulyukayev to present his vision of sources for economic growth and evaluate the work to draft measures to improve labor productivity and solve the problem of company towns and closed administrative-territorial entities. The president said the latter was a matter of special concern because of security restrictions.

According to preliminary projections made by the Ministry of Economic Development, Russia’s GDP in 2013 grew by 1.2% and is expected to grow by 2.5% this year. The federal budget deficit in 2013 was 310.52 billion rubles (0.5% of GDP) and is expected to be 0.6-0.7% of GDP in 2014.

So what is the new Model of Growth in Private Industry and how much success have they achieved so far ?