Russian Economy General News: #1

Russia's foreign trade surplus increased in 2013 to $ 208.6 billion / Statistics

Russian trade balance in 2013 showed a surplus of $ 208.6 billion, up $ 1.1 billion, or 0.5% more than it was in 2012. It is reported by the Federal Customs Service.


In the trade with foreign countries the balance equaled $ 176.4 billion (an increase of $ 3.2 billion), with the CIS countries - $ 32.2 billion (down $ 2.1 billion).


According to customs statistics, in 2013 Russia's foreign trade remained at the level of 2012 and amounted to $ 844.2 billion, with non-CIS foreign trade turnover amounted to $ 729.4 billion, with the CIS countries - $ 114.8 billion


Russian exports in 2013 remained virtually the same as last year and formed a $ 526.4 billion in total exports to non-CIS countries in 2013 accounted for 86.0%, the share of CIS countries - 13.9%.


Russian imports in 2013 and remained at the level of indicators in 2012 and amounted to $ 317.8 billion in total imports to non-CIS countries in 2013 accounted for 87.0%, the share of CIS countries - 13.0%.
MOSCOW, February 12. / ITAR-TASS /.

   

Russian regulator cuts GDP 2014 estimate from 3% to 1.5-1.8%

Economy
February 14, 17:31 UTC+4
MOSCOW, February 14. /ITAR-TASS/. Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced its estimate for Russia's GDP this year from 3% to 1.5-1.8%, CBR governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday.


Inflation is expected to stand at 5.8-6.1% year-on-year at the end of the first six months 2014 and to drop to 5 percent by year-end. According to Nabiullina, the ruble’s weakening in January and February had a moderate impact on inflation (0.5 p. p.) which risks increasing in the future.

Austin wrote:   

Russian regulator cuts GDP 2014 estimate from 3% to 1.5-1.8%

Economy
February 14, 17:31 UTC+4
MOSCOW, February 14. /ITAR-TASS/. Central Bank of Russia (CBR) reduced its estimate for Russia's GDP this year from 3% to 1.5-1.8%, CBR governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Friday.


Inflation is expected to stand at 5.8-6.1% year-on-year at the end of the first six months 2014 and to drop to 5 percent by year-end. According to Nabiullina, the ruble’s weakening in January and February had a moderate impact on inflation (0.5 p. p.) which risks increasing in the future.

About 2% is what I expect myself and given that CBR prefer to slightly understate officially, this is what they expect as well.
This would indicate a decent growth in the second half of the year of around 3%

flamming_python wrote:Russia's central bank, chief economists, etc... are notoriously conservative.

Throughout the 2000s - every year up until 2008 their predictions understated growth considerably, sometimes by up to 2 percent or more.

I wouldnt say thats a bad thing, as they prepare themselves for possible economic troubles.

Here is why they make conservative predictions:

-Under-promise and then over-deliver: they will look like heroes
-Over-promise and then under-deliver: they will look like losers

My Opinion is Russian Economy really needs positive stimulus to boost growth , both supporting Key Infrastructure Area and other to develop Russian Economy away from Mineral based to Financial based ones at much greater rate and at much faster rate they are doing.

Beyond that they need to do structural reforms .......All I see now is a great amount of money is spent on Oil & Gas Sector going into trillion of roubles but far less in infra projects.

Without a stimulus Russian Economy will grow around 2-2.5 % in next few years.

During 2008 Crisis Central Bank spent $300 billion supporting the rouble ........The Russian Government should spend the same money ~ $300 billion till 2020 to stimulate the economy ...and put that money into project that is guranteed to generate Returns ( excluding Mineral Sector ) 

Not sure why they are shying away from taking pro-active steps and are just being conservative  .......$300 billion is around $50 billion per year and put into infra projects into Slovoko project and Financial ones.

This should be Russian Way of QE , the only difference is rather then giving money to banks like Fed did , CBR should put it in Economy in Infrastructure Project , Give Cheap loans to Small Business at 3-4 % and stimulate Growth.

Truth be told Russia needs 4-5 % growth for the next 20 years if it does not want to lag behind China or India and wants to be counted in Big Power League .........Russia Economy is too conservative and in European league

Arent they spending like 600 billion dollars already for the military- thats stimulus.

collegeboy16 wrote:Arent they spending like 600 billion dollars already for the military- thats stimulus.

Yes and No , Military Investement doesnt really help you generate revenue ...though its a good investement if you want to maintain an Independent Foreign Policy , keep people and family employed and Exports do help but thats really long term

In Short and Medium Term .....pumping money in Infrastructure , Guranteeing Cheap Loans for SME's is some of the ways to go about to boost growth , GDP , Industry and Economy.

Its money much well spent then supporting Rouble and burning Reserves.

Russian Reserves are today at $490 USD thanks to CBR burning USD to support Rouble and that trend will continue.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RUREFEG:IND

At todays GDP of ~ $ 1850  , spending $300 USD for the next 6 years or $50 per year if CBR borrows it will be around 16 % of GDP .....that would increase the public debt to 27 % of GDP.

Worth the money , many BRIC country have Public Debt well abouve 50 % of GDP and let me not get started on EU or US where it high as 80-90 % 

If you spend $300 from Gov Money you can aim for USD 100 - 200 from Private Investement thats strong investement of ~ $ 400-500 for next six years.

Austin wrote:At todays GDP of ~ $ 1850  , spending $300 USD for the next 6 years or $50 per year if CBR borrows it will be around 16 % of GDP .....that would increase the public debt to 27 % of GDP.

Worth the money , many BRIC country have Public Debt well abouve 50 % of GDP and let me not get started on EU or US where it high as 80-90 % 

If you spend $300 from Gov Money you can aim for USD 100 - 200 from Private Investement thats strong investement of ~ $ 400-500 for next six years.

Every thing has its positive and nagative aspects. Up to now we have been debating only negative and panicing but the same that thing has also its positive sides.

For one Russian government which gets paid a lot of money from oil and gas deliveries in dollars will now be able to buy much more arms and equipment in rubbles and

all the other stuff it needs from its domestic producers. Other countries may place much larger contracts now that Russian commodities became much cheaper and the good thing

is that Russian people will not feel a damn thing because Russian producers produce everything same as foreign ones.



I dont know what are decisive effects on the strenght of currency but could it be that as same as roubble devalued could gain its strenght also some time in the future which would

monentarily improve Russian outlook.

@Austin

Because Russia has one of the smallest foreign debt means that devalued currency will effect its economy in the smallest possible way. On the other hand that might cause

a problem for Russian companies which borrowed money in dollars but make profit in rubbles (will teach them in the future to borrow only in rubbles ) - I dont know the sum of money

in such cases but that could be way over Russian foreign debt. I dont know.

Russia has about 10 years to build a serious individual targeted, mostly private, industrial sector. You know, cars, mobiles, refrigerators, shoes, pharmaceutics etc. everything.
This is important because will help Russia to close the technological gap in thousand of different technologies and applications leading to a modern and diverged economy.
In the same time should grow as much as possible the public, strategic industrial sector where she is traditionally strong.
Planes, tractors, power plants, big and small arms, space technology, this stuff.
Financial sector comes last, it is more an indicator of the status of the economy and not vice versa.
In the process should absolutely keep the budget balanced the inflation low the ruble relatively strong and the debt stable. Anything else is recipe for disaster.
If they succeed in this, they will finally have a diversified, strong, economy, even if relatively small compare to China and later India (nothing can be done against demographics).
Else, will never stop being a hydrocarbon based, weak, unstable economy, with a relatively low standard of living and soon an economic satellite and proxy of China.
10 years and the clock is ticking.

Hannibal Barca wrote:Russia has about 10 years to build a serious individual targeted, mostly private, industrial sector. You know, cars, mobiles, refrigerators, shoes, pharmaceutics etc. everything.
This is important because will help Russia to close the technological gap in thousand of different technologies and applications leading to a modern and diverged economy.
In the same time should grow as much as possible the public, strategic industrial sector where she is traditionally strong.
Planes, tractors, power plants, big and small arms, space technology, this stuff.
Financial sector comes last, it is more an indicator of the status of the economy and not vice versa.
In the process should absolutely keep the budget balanced the inflation low the ruble relatively strong and the debt stable. Anything else is recipe for disaster.
If they succeed in this, they will finally have a diversified, strong, economy, even if relatively small compare to China and later India (nothing can be done against demographics).
Else, will never stop being a hydrocarbon based, weak, unstable economy, with a relatively low standard of living and soon an economic satellite and proxy of China.
10 years and the clock is ticking.

^^^ Agreed 10 years they should invest and get on their feet.

Another risk that was discussed regarding Oil & Gas prices posted in paper of Russian Academy of Science which is more like Government Paper on Oil & Gas is revolution in Shale Technology.

Right now Shale needs high oil and gas prices to be successful hence its not causing much concerns for Traditional way of Gas and Oil Drilling as well as the High prices it is now.

But the paper says if there is a technology breakthrough in Shale Oil Explolation technology where Oil can be extracted at lower prices then Brent will fall to $80 per barrel from the current $106 per barrel.

So yes they have a decade to build up and make their own mark like South korea did else end up playing Second Tier to China or other nation.

Precisely! South Korea is what I had in mind! With the addition of natural resources and the strategic/military sector minus the social coherence and the frenetic working schedule of the Asians.

BTW Putin mentioned that he would like to increase Russia Labour productivity

http://rt.com/business/putin-russia-oil-labor-632/

However, labor productivity is now less than half the level of most developed economies – at 3.1 percent. In coming years, productivity must increase by 5%-6% a year, twice the current rate. "Only in this way can we overcome the efficiency gap," the president said. "I am confident that we are capable of doing that," he concluded. 


The current abyss between consumption and productivity is dangerous, Putin said. “Living off rent from natural resources, at the expense of future generations, unearned wealth cannot be stable or long term," he added.

How can one increase labour productivity by make them more hours or by adding automation and cutting labour ?

This is 2011 figures for productivity

Labor productivity

This week Ekspert magazine published about a survey conducted by the Audit and Consultancy Group Finexpertiza (CPA Associates International in English) which calculated the labor productivity in several countries. The calculation is simple. How many people does a country need to produce 1 million dollars of its GDP? It turns out that Russia’s labor productivity is 5 times lower than those of the developed countries, but 3 times higher than that of China and 6 times higher than that of India. To produce 1 million dollar of its GDP Russia needs 57 people. Brazil needs 62 persons, China 152 and India 340. In Germany it takes only 13 people to produce 1 million dollars of its GDP, In the US this number is 11.

They need to reach German standards in labour productivity

Austin wrote:This is 2011 figures for productivity

Labor productivity

This week Ekspert magazine published about a survey conducted by the Audit and Consultancy Group Finexpertiza (CPA Associates International in English) which calculated the labor productivity in several countries. The calculation is simple. How many people does a country need to produce 1 million dollars of its GDP? It turns out that Russia’s labor productivity is 5 times lower than those of the developed countries, but 3 times higher than that of China and 6 times higher than that of India. To produce 1 million dollar of its GDP Russia needs 57 people. Brazil needs 62 persons, China 152 and India 340. In Germany it takes only 13 people to produce 1 million dollars of its GDP, In the US this number is 11.

They need to reach German standards in labour productivity

This is nothing else than taking a million and divide it with the gdp per capita       
A nice way to pretend that you worked to produce an article   
Efficiency is indeed a problem but it is a completely different figure.

Hannibal Barca wrote:
This is nothing else than taking a million and divide it with the gdp per capita       
A nice way to pretend that you worked to produce an article   
Efficiency is indeed a problem but it is a completely different figure.

So how to read the real effeciency ? And how to improve labour productivity ?

Did we miss this news   


Ruble move reflects China's yuan strategy

Allowing foreign currencies to be freely traded with the home currency is common in many countries. But giving a foreign currency the same status as the home unit is not, and China has acted differently.

On Dec 8, the country announced that it was allowing the Russian ruble to circulate unrestricted in Suifenhe, Heilongjiang province, bordering Russia. Although the rule applies to only one city, it is the first time that Beijing has given a foreign currency the same legal status as the renminbi on Chinese territory.

This deregulation tells a few things.

First, Chinese policymakers are indeed increasingly embracing market forces.

Generally the government remains prudent in liberalizing the foreign exchange system and insists on setting what it believes the right value for the yuan.

But Suifenhe, as a place where the yuan and the ruble have already been traded freely by residents, travelers and businesses, has proven that the market itself can do a good job in finding the right point between two currencies.

For years, underground dealers in the city have brokered deals on their own. Their exchange rates could at times differ widely from official rates. But their rates appeared to reflect the market better, with official rates having taken gray-market rates as a reference over the years. Now the differences between market rates and official rates are small, which shows the power of the market.

On the demand side, the ruble has virtually become the second currency in the city, where one-tenth of the China-Russia trade is taking place.

So giving ruble legal status in the city is in line with what the market has been calling for. The government decided not to follow the old practice of simply cracking down on what it used to deem as underground transactions. It realized that legalizing this trade, instead of blocking it, is the way to go, which represents a remarkable change of thinking.

Second, allowing the ruble to be used in Suifenhe displays policymakers' confidence of the yuan's lure across the border.

A big reason that a country usually does not allow a foreign currency to be used in its territory stems from worries that it will threaten the status of the country's home currency.

But for Chinese policymakers, it is not a cause of concern.

As the yuan is appreciating and its value remains strong, the currency's demand in border trade is always big, often making it a preferred choice.

In an open and free foreign exchange market, a stronger currency will ultimately have a bigger share.

In the case of Suifenhe, the ruble is mostly used as a settlement for trade and sometimes as a payment unit for Russian travelers. As the ruble's value can fluctuate sharply and it is depreciating, Suifenhe residents would like to exchange rubles for yuan after they collect some of the currency, and Russian businesspeople are also willing to hold yuan.

So long as China's economic growth bolsters the yuan, its neighbors' currencies, even if they are given access to China, will be unable to challenge the renminbi.

By opening Suifenhe to the ruble, Chinese policymakers are casting a vote of confidence in the yuan, confident that its value can be maintained.

Third, the deregulation in Suifenhe could be copied in other border cities.

China may allow other currencies to legally enter its territory. Cities bordering Southeast Asia and Central Asia could be the next candidates.

The opening-up will certainly make trade easier.

But more importantly, the move can create a reference for Chinese authorities to better set the yuan's exchange rates, as a free market will provide the best reflection of demand and supply.

Last but not least, by allowing foreign currencies to be used in designated Chinese cities, China can have an upper hand in negotiating with neighbors on financial opening-up.

China's ambition to internationalize its currency is clear. But before the yuan becomes a global unit, it has to be a regional one. Therefore, boosting the use of the yuan in neighboring countries is an immediate task for China.

By accepting their currencies, the chances are enlarged for China to persuade neighbors to give a wide access for the yuan to enter their markets.

Austin wrote:So Russia ranks no 1 in Oil and Gas reserves , No-2 in Gold , No-3 in Coal .........what other key reserves it hold in huge numbers ?

Land for farming and its Titanium (metals) serve as a strategic source as well.  As the population of the world increases, the demand for food increases and face it, many countries are facing shortages of food (it actually makes me somewhat sad that your country was mostly built up from wealth of agriculture and yet, it is being destroyed in place for farms because of some corrupt politician).  So now we are facing discrepancies around the world in terms of food and more and more countries are importing.  In this case, Russia can actually become the food basket of the world if need be.  So people would become reliant on Russian foods.  Only other countries who can compete in such a manner is Canada and USA.  If the continent of Africa could get its shit together, they too could be a competitor.

As well, for Titanium, a lot of the titanium used around the world, for aircraft and just general military production, comes from Russia.  Hence why Boeing has a place in Titanium Valley.

As well, South Korea as a business model is not the best.  The country is small and hence has a specialization more so than anything.  Russia can deal with specializations but mostly, should reach nearly every sector.  Take into account that the average South Korean isn't rich, and that Samsung, Hyundai and the likes were given heavy subsidies (so much for being private) in order to become big.  Add to that, the biggest tech producer at the time, Japan, used South Korea as a means of producing their technologies much cheaper, and Samsung, under government pressure, was used as the main tech developer.  Hence why now, Samsung and Hyundai are very large.  Russia, does not have such other than companies like Rostech who owns a ton of subsidiary companies that are dealing with high technologies.  If you look through their businesses, many countries around the world does use their products and they are a multibillion dolor company.  But they deal with more specialized technologies.  All the way to things like MRAM to medical and energy.  As of last year, there has been 3+ million new businesses created in Russia (Private) but maybe half of those survived through the year.  It is just how a capitalistic market works, and as much as many people do not want to admit it - that is what Russia is.

Russia's #1 issue after asking around from others who live in Russia, is their widespread villages and monograds.  Issue is, you got so many small communities, where businesses would not flourish simply alone, lack of customers, and transportation can become a major issue.  Too many villages that are dying and the space between one city and the other can be massive.  It would be far better to create planned communities between these villages and linking to the villages and nearby cities (so that the farmers can still farm and it would be easier/cheaper to sell their products to the city) while the others can move to the city and having a more central economy (in this case, the city/town), makes it far easier with a higher population in that center (more people buying, more demands for development, etc). Why I think this is generally true, is because it is the same issue we face in Canada. Our small towns/villages are more costly to upkeep than what is generally being taken out in terms of 'profit'. With the exception of cities like Regina or Saskatchewan, majority of Saskatoon's (province here in Canada) is heavily subsidized in order to survive. They do have oil/gas, as well as huge in farming. But outside of that, there isn't much and the small communities are the ones with the lowest GDP per capita as well as highest amount of poverty can be found their. Same goes for the province I was born in, Manitoba. Besides Winnipeg, the rest of the communities have to rely on one or two things. Brandon Manitoba relies on its University to survive. They as well get money through transportation since they have a Gasahol plant outside in Riding mountain park. Russia has a lot of what Canada used to have. We are losing our small communities because they were becoming more of a burden than anything.

I am still under the impression that the joining of the WTO was Russia's biggest mistake.  They have to become far more reliant on domestic consumption, as that is the route China is moving to, since USA is trying to turn its back on China.  South Korea will always be a puppet of US, hence why South Korea will always have business.  Russia and China have more in common in terms of politics than the rest of the world, and they are now realizing this, hence why the big deals between the two countries.  India is the wildcard here, as they have good relations with everyone and can sell to everyone.  But that can change in the blink of an eye if India continues to deal with Iran and USA gets angry about it.

Oh, and giving a deadline till when Russia has to change itself is stupid.  Who gave you that prediction?  10 years?  That is barely enough time to change much.  It took Japan over 30+ years to change itself and its economy to that from the destruction of the countries beliefs and structures from WWII.  And even with that, Japan had massive help from USA in the 70's and 80's.  Russia had probably a similar change (without the need of nuclear bombs to be dropped on them) in the 90's and that was 20+ years ago.  It took up until 10 years ago to actually start to move into a different direction economically.  In 2007, that is when things was showing real change.  2008 showed that the world economy is too fragile and the country had to once again, change itself or face further issues.  So they barely had much time to change.  And what is funny, is that in the short periods of time, Russia is seeing massive change in terms of construction, and development of Industrial Parks, Technoparks, and Inograds.  Actually, I can't think of another country who has put as much emphasis as Russia has in such fields.  But the thing is, start of these projects happened in 2007, and out of 11 of the the technoparks who received funding and development, only 3 - 4 of them are actually complete and making progress.  The rest of them are still under development.  So to say 10 years is where they should be to change, is really cutting it short.  I would say 20 years as it will take that long for all the Industrial and Technoparks to actually pick up development.  As well, Titanium Valley will only start to become really operational by 2017 at least.

I think they are going the right route.  And the fact that both of them know that the small/medium business is where they have flourished in the past, is what is needed again.

Another Industrial Park Opened in Kazan (Private)

I was working on, for the longest time a map and info on Russia's industrial parks, Technoparks and Inograd (only one so far is Skolkovo) and it was quite impressive in the amount of work being done. Unfortunately, I have faced a hard drive failure and have to start again. Oh well. This time, I might make it interactive map.

Austin wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:
This is nothing else than taking a million and divide it with the gdp per capita       
A nice way to pretend that you worked to produce an article   
Efficiency is indeed a problem but it is a completely different figure.

So how to read the real effeciency ? And how to improve labour productivity ?

Labour productivity per hour worked which takes also into account working population, unemployment and working hours annually. Hard to find those tables though


eg
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00117

But this is what all companies measure and what makes an investment affordable in terms of labour cost or not which is all it matters.

News:
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Iran ready to step up economic cooperation with Russia soon and deliver oil

MOSCOW, February 17, 7:42 /ITAR-TASS/. Iran is prepared soon to step up mutually beneficial and comprehensive economic cooperation with Russia which must have an advantage on the Iranian market, Mehdi Sanai, the Ambassador to Iran, told the newspaper Kommersant in an interview published on Monday.
"Negotiations are currently under way between our two countries on the conclusion of a Memorandum of Economic Cooperation. Such a document was already signed at the beginning of the 1990s. This time, this refers in point of fact to a renewal of it. We are holding talks on on a whole set of economic matters ranging from energy to banking. Accords have been already reached about the content and key parameters of such a memorandum. It remains to finalise details and technicalities which are being clarified," the Iranian Ambassador pointed out.

More cooperation with Iran the better. Iran has the potential for huge Russian investments and Russia has potential for high returns. Especially in the high tech field and energy sector. Iran needs energy investments as well as Russia needs to project their tech products outside of their border and past the CIS. Construction vehicles, Agriculture equipment, food export and telecommunications are all very important.
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About 6 trln RUR to be assigned for territorial development of New Moscow

MOSCOW, February 14, (ITAR-TASS). About six trillion roubles, including investors' contributions, are to be assigned for the development of New (enlarged) Moscow territories in the coming 30 years, Marat Khusnullin, Moscow's Vice-Mayor for Urban Development Policy and Consstruction, told the newspaper Kommersant in an interview published on Friday.
"It is planned to build 100 million square metres of real estate in the New Moscow, and create one million jobs, with the population being 1.5 million-strong," Khusnullin said.
At the same time, the Vice-Mayor pointed out that "on a greater part of land in the New Moscow it is not planned to build anything". "The territory will remain a green zone," Khusnullin said.

6 Trillion Roubles sounds like a lot, but over a 30 year span, it really isn't in the realm of extreme. But why keep expanding Moscow? Why not expand and develop other key cities like Irkutsk, Vladivostok or Nizhny Novgorod?
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Greek DEPA hopes for big discount on Russian gas

ATHENS, February 12. /ITAR-TASS/. Greek state-owned gas company DEPA and Russian Gazprom have reached a preliminary agreement on a lower price of gas supplies, but the Greek company now wants a bigger discount, its official who represents the interests of Gazprom in Athens said on condition of anonymity on Wednesday, February 12.

I don't blame them. I would seek cheaper gas too, seeing as how Greece is paying more than rest of EU which isn't quite fair.
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Japan set to support LNG projects in Russia’s Far East

TOKYO, February 13. /ITAR-TASS/. Japan is set to expand its companies’ presence in liquefied natural gas projects on Russia’s Far Eastern island of Sakhalin and Vladivostok, a city in the Primorsky Territory, and to provide financial assistance to these projects, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Toshimitsu Motegi told a meeting of the budget commission of the parliament’s lower house on Thursday

I am always weary of Japan's politics. But as far as I am concerned, Japan's economic development seems to be controlled differently than their foreign politics.
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Kalashnikov Concern predicts operating loss of $49 million

MOSCOW, February 07. /ITAR-TASS/. Kalashnikov Concern predicts an operating loss of 1.7 billion rubles ($49 million) as of the end of 2013, enterprise’s CEO Alexei Krivoruchko, said on Friday.
“It’s not a secret that Kalashnikov Concern is facing a crisis. The situation is very complex. We’ll work to reduce costs,” Krivoruchko said.

This comes as no surprise as both companies were facing some real hard times for a while and even after the merge, would not fix everything at first. Hopefully they can modernize production and start fixing their finances. I think the merge was the good start.

Nice   

Medvedev issues orders on support of small, medium enterprises