Moldova and Transnistria Situation Thread

I do believe Odessa will be annexed but Russia was never going to be able to take Odessa without first taking Kherson, zapo, Donbass first. Russia isn't guilty of leaving them surrounded. It's a different country for a start and not part of Ukraine. If Moldovan government forces don't get involved then Transnistrian forces can defend and fight for a period of time, urban warfare isn't easy, and with nowhere to run then they will most likely only have the option of fight to the death, as they know all to well what the Nazis will do to them if captured. A population that has only survival to fight for can be a very determined and difficult force to deal with. And just how many troops can Ukraine afford to commit to it and at what level of training, and they will suffer casualties. Russian air force and cruise missiles will help the defending force, and cause deaths amongst the Ukrainians. And of course I am pretty sure Kiev and Odessa will see some heavy missile strikes. And don't forget if Ukraine does invade that will tie up their forces until the end of war. And as previously stated this could easily cause chaos within Moldova and blow up in Ukraine and the west's face.

And for what? To kill pro-Russians, gain a slither of landmass to Moldova? And warehouses of soviet small arms?

And in return lose troops, troops tied up for months if not years, waste ammunition, lose equipment, face hostile civilians, and heavier missile strikes across your country and that's just for Ukraine.

As for Moldova it will face a swarm of refugees, blacklash and protests which most likely violent, across Moldova including Gagauzia. The civilian population have lived in peace since the war between Moldova and Transnistria and they won't see this as a worthwhile chaos, and they will certainly be angry that Ukraine has brought the chaos and bloodshed into their own country for the Ukrainians and the west's own agenda. Moldovan I suspect would rather accept a pro Russian coup with little to none bloodshed and a little civil unrest then full-scale chaos and bloodshed.

As for the west they would see a rise in more refugees at a point they are already having to deal with mass refugees from Ukraine and across the globe. More intervention means more money, more equipment, more ammunition at a time ammunition production is already stretched to the max. And then there is rebuilding costs of all the damage which the west will have to foot the bill, and as I said earlier this could cause a blacklash on pot calling kettle black Scenario and lose support for Ukraine and the west and Ukraine can't afford to lose support.

Ask yourself how important is Moldova to the west? To Russia Moldova is just a bonus and stick two fingers up at the west nothing more. To the west it's two fingers up at Russia and then to repair rebuild and bring up to EU standards scenario which will cost them. Moldova would struggle to join NATO and wouldn't meet the demands and would need serious help to do so, and Moldova isn't a strategic location and landlocked.

I don't think the west will want to give up Moldova easily most likely just cause as much chaos as it can before turning it back on Moldova just out of spite to the Russians. Russia if it plans to take Moldova should do a quick coup and turn the combined Transnistrian forces and Moldovan government forces into defence mode, and wait for Odessa to be taken. Time will tell but I am hoping that Moldova is taken in a coup with little bloodshed and a vote to become part of the Russian federation along with Transnistria.

If the Nazi vermin do invade Transnistria, what do posters think will happen with Russia, and the Moldovan govt?

Will Russia intervene via Moldova?
Will Russia need to take control over Moldova?

Will Moldova support the Nazis?

Will Russia make an airborne defence?
Or sea landings?
Or perhaps attack from via Belarus too?

How will the West try and hide their own actionseg perhaps try and bring a rabidly antiRussian junta into force in Moldova? Will Russia control the whole of Moldova?

Like I said, let them try it

So Moldova got the hots for EU and NATO ? What happens if one NATO puppet attacks another NATO puppet ? If Ukrs attack Transnistria , then easiest plan is for Russia to do marine landing and take 3 km land , from the coast , just south Deniester River and Estuary , up to Moldova border . The Ukrs to attack this force , must cross Estuary or Moldovan territory and cross the Deniester River . One NATO backed entity attacking through another !

^ Moldovans don't have the hots for EU or Nato. There are pro Russian protests happening on the ground now. Ppl want good relations with Russia to get affordable gas.

But as is evident everywhere , what the population thinks doesn't matter. The US just has one of its placeholder governments in power. And does what it wants with the country. All the real parties in Moldova are pro Russian. But anytime they get close to power , it is called a Russian coup and is stamped out

I'm not entirely sure what this writer is implying. It sounds like Transnistria hasn't done itself any favors over the years. And was loose and stupid with what was going on in the region

Dmitry Steshin, Komsomolskaia Pravda:

About the Transnistrian crisis without illusions.

It's time to use a tactical nuclear charge, or that we have a similar force there, so that they mess up along the entire Kiev-Chisinau-Bucharest axis. To protect our peacekeepers and military base/arsenal. There is no one to feel sorry for, these creatures agreed a long time ago, Romanians and Bandera are brothers for a century. There is no hope for a clear civil-military resistance of Pridnestrovie. Not Donbass. People were kept in hopelessness for 30 years, until they realized that they should only rely on themselves and their three passports.
As practice shows, if you have three passports, in case of a crisis you will choose an air ticket. Especially if generations have changed and no one remembers that bloody war, which was, it seems, 100 years ago.

Although, Pridnestrovie can put up a certain number of combatants, even contrary to the interests of the elites. They also whined about the Donbass in 2014: "yes, who will go to war, everyone has loans in Privatbank, etc."
And they also worked with Pridnestrovie in parallel with us, and you don’t have to guess whose work was more successful - just talk to Ukraine. There, everything is surrounded by Western NGOs in a circle, I saw it even during the "Moldovan revolution". People from strange foundations, even in a conversation with a journalist, did not hide what they were doing - unrest, and Pridnestrovie was a convenient extraterritorial base for them. And in the center of Europe, moreover, not exactly the Ivory Coast.
From the good-Ukraine gets a war on two fronts. Small consolation, but still...

The only reason Russia never officially recognized Transnistria was under the possibility that Moldova itself would fall into the Russian orbit. There was a hope that a there would be a broader plebiscite including Transnistria on Moldova's future course, either to the EU or the Eurasian Economic Union.

NATO has played this fairly intelligently. Transnistria is now blockaded. Russia has not achieved air supremacy over southwestern Ukraine so does not have the ability to reinforce its garrison in the territory.

The West actually told the president of Moldova to dissolve her government and she did so. Truly bold on an extraordinary level.

One of the examples of where the loss of Kherson and the left bank of the Dnipro was disastrous. Hopefully that little sliver of ethnic Russian territory with Russian soldiers can stand.

Kherson bears little bearing

Nikolayev and Odessa are along the way, and present bigger problems - they were never in Russian hands.
And clearly the drive towards Odessa was reconsidered still during an earlier stage of the war, and Russian troops consolidated themselves at the Kherson-Nikolayev border instead

Once again whether the Ukraine and puppet Moldovan authorities have the balls to give the go-ahead into Pridnestrovie, is yet to be seen. Until then I wouldn't presume anything, far less some successful NATO plan.

@rybar_en
In recent days, there have been movements of the AFU in Odessa Region in the direction of the border with Transnistria.

Lets say the Ukraine attacks Pridnestrovie with the complicity of Moldova blockading the Western borders but not joining the invasion, could Russia realistically do anything to prevent the Ukraine from occupying the territory, holding the populace as human shields and capturing Russian peacekeepers? We know the ammo depots there would be destroyed but I can't think what else Russia would be able (or willing) to do.

Broski wrote:We know the ammo depots there would be destroyed but I can't think what else Russia would be able (or willing) to do.

Does Russia need to destroy the ammo depo? also southfront writes this but that does not convince me.

Can they just not destroy the invading ukrainan army?

They could even organise a landing in the southwestern part of Odessa Oblast (that is south o Moldova), that the ufrainian art cannot defend as the only bridge is taken out and the reinforce the soldiers in transnistria via Moldavian territory.

Russia in this case would not be attacking first Moldavia .
Moldava has to guarantee the security of russian forces in Moldavia. If they instead allow an ukrainian invasion of transnistria, Russia has the right to intervene.

For me it looks as if Russia is waiting for the Ukro/NATO team to make this mistake.
This could be the excuse to go for Nikolaev and Odessa and further to get a landbridge
to Transnistria and cut off the Kiev regime from the Black Sea.
Russia could turn around to the Global South and state: "Look, we didn´t want to do this but we had no other choice."

The snail pace of the current war has me worried that any reinforcements being sent to Transnistria will be too late. Best case scenario is that Moldova does something retarded like assisting Ukraine to attack Transnistria giving Russia a reason to demilitarize Moldova next. Russian troops can't retreat back to Moldova in Transnistria and it seems Ukraine has enough bodies to still spare to get more and more close to the border.

If it looks like Ukraine is serious about invading Transnistria then the only option left for Russia could be to make another front coming from Belarus along with Belarusian forces, combine this with a push in Kherson front towards Niko and Odessa, and increased missile/drone strikes on Ukrainian forces building up on the Transnistria border or any area that has a build up of forces. Along with the usual attacks along other fronts, Ukraine may have to abandon such an invasion due to casualties across Ukraine and increased pressure from Kherson front and a new front coming from Belarus which I think will force Ukraine to redeploy troops towards that front it can't risk Kiev being cut off. And Transnistrian forces will most likely be tougher nut to crack than Ukraine thinks due to having nowhere to run will have no option but to fight to the death. As I mentioned earlier sending fresh mobilization forces will most likely face high death rate, or if they send experienced troops will face manpower losses and Territory losses And it would be pretty embarrassing for Ukraine to be defeated by Transnistrian forces and having to retreat. Time will tell if Ukraine is willing to risk it.

I lost any hope of a quick Russian takeover of Odessa after Russia withdrew their forces from Kherson. The takeover of Nikolayev by the lightly armored VDV early in the war was a failure and the many bridges in the south would have been an issue anyway. The only way Russia is getting to Odessa is via Belarus in the north. And that will likely take another round or two of mobilization.

If either NATO or Ukraine attack Tiraspol then Russia can simply annex everything in Ukraine East of the Dnieper as a first step.

Any ammo dumps in Transnistria can either be blown up by local forces or Kinzhal and cruise missile attacks. And Moldova could well be made to pay for its invasion with retaliatory cruise missile strikes. As is, Russia would do well to strike local infrastructure close to the border on the Ukrainian side to soften up any attempt at invasion from the Ukrainian side.

Another thing Russia can do is push with the Black Sea fleet back into Southwestern Ukraine. Stop all ship movements in and out of Ukraine until Transnistria is back under allied control.

BUDAPEST, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Airline Wizz Air (WIZZ.L) said on Monday it would suspend flights to the Moldovan capital Chisinau from March 14 due to concerns about the safety of its airspace, a decision Moldova's civil aviation authority described as sudden and regrettable.

So we can expect Moldova to join their brotherly nation Banderastan in the suicidal war against ethnic Russians around the middle of next March, either that or a military coup d'état.

Well, I called it last October.
Moldova will seize to exist sooner than Kokaina.
I feel really bad for Moldovian population.
There are lots of people that are pro-russian and are on good terms with Prednistrovie.
I would assume Romanians are either already at the border or with Sandu's help infiltrated the country prior to this under civilian disguise.
She is a foreign agent for only that purpose.