Turkey relations with US and NATO

Should have just found him guilty and executed him...

This was just an excuse... the real evil that Turkey is doing is cooperating with Russia and Syria and Iran in Syria, as well as cooperating with Russia to deliver Russian gas to Europe, and of course buying S-400s.

Ironic that the US says Turkey can't have their F-35s if they buy S-400s because flying F-35s in airspace where S-400s are operating with will reveal all the secrets of the F-35... Except Russia is operating S-400s in Syria and Israel is flying F-35s...

We will find out soon enough... they have claimed that that legislation they passed on buying Russian weapons was not about hurting allies, so they should waive any sanctions that might be due Turkey for buying S-400s right?

The only thing releasing him has done is prevented a further round of US sanctions. He hasn't gained anything from it.

https://ahvalnews.com/andrew-brunson/nine-things-came-out-release-us-pastor-none-which-are-positive-erdogan

The only thing it accomplished was delegitimising his government and judicial system.

The thing that it has taught the Americans is that Sanctions and pressure brings results...

The ridiculous thing is that the Americans and the west don't know their history... do they think Russia or China or Iran for that matter will fold because you limit or take away their luxurious lifestyle... these people have know hardship the likes of which the west has never seen... people who lived through the siege of Leningrad and the battles in the eastern front during WWII are not going to fold so they can have European cheese... they are better off developing their own cheese...

The problem for Turkey is they import most of their "cheese". The agricultural sector has become highly unproductive and cannot compete with the imports. It requires major subsidies just to keep what little they have going.

There is stupid and then there's this.


[size=48]Turkey plans to buy 120 F-35 fighter jets from US: Erdogan[/size]


Turkey would be mad and stupid to buy F-35. 

1) turkey doesn't really need such aircraft 
2) it's plagued with issues
3) rising costs and it's already expensive 
4) gives usa a hand on the balls of Turkey 
5) edro clearly forgets usa backed the attempted coup

The aircraft Turkey would get are export variants  (downgraded) and after the S-400 deal likely get a secretly further downgraded version. and likely price hike disguised through an excuse. Turkey should cut its losses and buy other aircraft from non western countries. If they are hell bent on stealth they could do following options:

 join a joint venture with China on its J-20 a bit like the arrangements of India and Russia on the FGFA/PMF project.

join the FGFA / PMF project. This may cement the on off deal between India and Russia.

buy export version of Su-57.

All options would likely delay Turkey in getting stealth aircraft as the F-35 deal they would likely receive aircraft quicker. but if they chose one of the options above they would save money and not have the potential of being bent over a barrel if they so much as make usa slightly unhappy in anyway. I think Turkey would be better off buying something like Su-35 & Su-34 and possibly a smaller number of stealth if they really wanted the capability. 

f-35


Turkey expected to invest $5 bn in total and has  already invested $200 mn 


projected cost to buy 120 F-35A @95mn each = $11.4bn 


for an EXAMPLE  (please note prices could rise or reduce) for same number of aircraft  (120) and still regaining a small element of stealth for certain missions. Turkey could get:


su-34 @$50mn x 36 = $1.8bn
su 35 @ $75mn x 60 = $4.5bn
FGFA @$100mn x 24=$2.4bn
total 120 aircraft. 
minus $200mn loss in investment for F-35.
which leaves $2.5bn to invest in a joint project such as FGFA/PMF. bearing in mind that Turkey at this stage of the project will unlikely have huge amount of say on the design but likely be able to produce some parts hence the smaller contribution to the project 


there was a mention that usa could block parts etc for F-16 turkey am sure would have enough technical know how and connections to keep them flying for years. And course another option that their was talk of a stealth version of Su-35 that could be in development. maybe turkey and Russia could do a joint project on that with turkey allowed to build it's own aircraft for its own use no export sales. This could then replace the F-16.

and before people start jumping all over this please this is just an example and by no means likely to happen or prices 100% correct. 


https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-plans-to-buy-120-f-35-fighter-jets-from-us-erdogan/

Well first of all let me say my method of dealing with that American Pastor in Turkey would have worked... less than 70 days in solitary confinement and that Russian woman who was guilty of nothing signed an "I did it... whatever you said I did... I did it" confession.

Regarding the F-35, I was under the impression that Turkey was a subcontractor for the project and makes parts for all F-35s so it was in their interests to continue their cooperation.

Actually it will be good for them to get it, because US fears regarding it operating together with S-400 systems will be interesting... it is better for the US to cut them out than for Turkey to back out themselves... way more penalties and problems for the US that way.

GarryB wrote:Well first of all let me say my method of dealing with that American Pastor in Turkey would have worked... less than 70 days in solitary confinement and that Russian woman who was guilty of nothing signed an "I did it... whatever you said I did... I did it" confession.

Regarding the F-35, I was under the impression that Turkey was a subcontractor for the project and makes parts for all F-35s so it was in their interests to continue their cooperation.

Actually it will be good for them to get it, because US fears regarding it operating together with S-400 systems will be interesting... it is better for the US to cut them out than for Turkey to back out themselves... way more penalties and problems for the US that way.

yez I believe usa has promised turkey they will make $12-15bn supplying parts. 

I found the pastor thing a bit suspicious I can't imagine all that hassle for a pastor lol. 

of course what I mentioned could be applied either way turkey or usa pulling out but ur right let usa pull out which is likely what's going to happen going the news. Turkey isn't the one who's calling it a problem usa are. In fact the example is suggested doesn't include any compensation for a potential pull out of usa so that would be an additional bonus on top lol.

Out of NATO, economy in gutters, soon to be civil warred and divided...

Looks like Turkey been offered Patriot batteries at better prices as the US State Department seems to have approved 3.5 Billion dollars of a sale of 80 Patriot Batt Missiles and 60 pa-3 Missiles to fill in the loss of Russian S 400 system.

Looking for a link

EDIT

Found this

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/a-messy-multi-billion-dollar-weapon-sale-between-turkey-russia-and-the-us-just-got-more-complicated.html

Nothing is clear about whether the S-400 deal is getting cancelled but the U.S is for sure selling the Patriots now. Quid pro-quo.

JohninMK wrote:Looks like Turkey been offered Patriot batteries at better prices as the US State Department seems to have approved 3.5 Billion dollars of a sale of 80 Patriot Batt Missiles and 60 pa-3 Missiles to fill in the loss of Russian S 400 system.

Looking for a link

EDIT

Found this

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/a-messy-multi-billion-dollar-weapon-sale-between-turkey-russia-and-the-us-just-got-more-complicated.html

what does people on here think will happen? 

I think personally they will.buy both as it will kinda apease both although usa will be pissed still. on the other hand Russia will still be happy it gets its sale and likely valuable info on the usa systems. And turkey gets to have a great laugh because not only does it get a great system  (S-400) but also get usa systems cheaper. but that's if they get both. The whole point of this usa deal is that they ditch s-400. I hope turkey doesn't fall for this bait. Turkey is quick to forget who saved his skin not so long ago. 

Turkey should say we will take the deal but we also want the F-35 deal and keep S-400 lol. If usa says no turkey should dig there heels in. show that they can't be bullied by the usa. 

but Erdogan may fear another coup lol. and bow to usa.

Isos wrote:S-400 is already paid. That's too late to cancel. If they cancel they can say good bye to money and russia keeps the s-400 for itself or can sell them to iran which means it get paid twice for the same systems.

I thought the S-400 was part paid. The article implies that Turkey will keep both but then Congress wouldn't release any F-35 to them, regardless of any Patriot deal. Turkey would have to pull out of the S-400 deal and write off the deposit if it wanted the F-35 deal to go ahead.

S-400 would probably go to India, certainly no shortage of homes for it.

Bit more detail

southfront reports https://southfront.org/u-s-turkey-bargain-over-syria-conflict-kurdish-issue-patriot-sales-and-deterrence-of-iran-russia/

"....Furthermore, on December 18th, the US State Department approved the possible Foreign Military Sale to Turkey of eighty (80) Patriot MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missiles (GEM-T) missiles, sixty (60) PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles and related equipment for an estimated cost of $3.5 billion.."

Turkey is a subcontractor on the F-35 deal aren't they?

I thought they were making parts for the F-35 so the US really can't just deny them their aircraft once they are paid for either... and if the US breaks the deal they would have to pay Turkey for the dispute.

Funny too see all the comments giving many advantages to Turkey.

Turkey can finish without the S-400, without the F-35 and without the Patriot missiles.

Turkey is probably the safest country in the region in terms of invasions...

Assuming both Patriot and S-400 purchase go through, Turkey will have quite a layered system of systems there.

400 km and 250 km for S-400 (assuming the big missile was also part of the deal)
Then 160 km and ~100 km for Patriot.
Now they can get Israeli Spyder for even shorter distances and be set. Three countries, three different SAM systems. Geopolitics, I guess...

My post was tongue in cheek in that regard. Of course it would be much more effective if they sources all systems from one side, so they can integrate them properly. But that's politics for you...

People focus too much on individual systems, but a modern and capable IADS means more than just the different air defence forces being able to work together.

It is about sharing information and cooperating in defence so you can match the performance of long range and medium range and short range systems, and also coordinate the defence so everyone does not focus on the same target and ignore other threats.

To be perfectly honest if given the choice between getting S-300 or an IADS then Syria would have been much better off getting the IADS... as it turns out they get both... and both are an enormous development and improvement in their ability to defend themselves.

Having said that I read an article about Vietnam and their experiences with the Israeli Spyder system and they don't seem very happy... partly because their tropical climate means IR sensors are not ideal systems a lot of the time, and also because they are having problems integrating the system with existing mainly Soviet systems...

Turkey – Patriot Missile System and Related Support and Equipment

WASHINGTON, December 18, 2018 - The State Department has made a determination approving a possible Foreign Military Sale to Turkey of eighty (80) Patriot MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missiles (GEM-T) missiles, sixty (60) PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles and related equipment for an estimated cost of $3.5 billion.  The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.

Turkey has requested the possible sale of four (4) AN/MPQ-65 Radar Sets, four (4) Engagement Control Stations, ten (10) Antenna Mast Groups (AMGs), twenty (20) M903 Launching Stations, eighty (80) Patriot MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missiles (GEM-T) missiles with canisters, sixty (60) PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missiles, and five (5) Electrical Power Plant (EPP) III. Also included with this request are communications equipment, tools and test equipment, range and test programs, support equipment, prime movers, generators, publications and technical documentation, training equipment, spare and repair parts, personnel training, Technical Assistance Field Team (TAFT), U.S. Government and contractor technical, engineering, and logistics support services, Systems Integration and Checkout (SICO), field office support, and other related elements of logistics and program support.  The total estimated program cost is $3.5 billion.

Turkey – Patriot Missile System and Related Support and Equipment

This is a great geopolitics channel. Keep a note they discuss pretty much everything of importance: