Khepesh wrote:^
The 2001 census is the problem here, and is the census were it was found that Russians were ticking box as Ukranians as ethnicity even only ten years after formation of Ukraine. Ignoring all the ethnic groups that are not East Slavonic, it still cannot be explained by population changes how 49,09% Russians and 9,39% Malorussians [Ukranians] in 1897 can change to 61,6% Ukranian and only 29,0% Russian by 2001. It is only the Jews that were killed or left in any significant numbers. There is also the issue of Surzhyk, which is a dialect of Russian, in that speakers of Surzhyk will call themselves Ukranian on the basis of speaking Surzhyk. Another analogy with Germany is that to say Zurzhyk is not a dialect of Russian is as ridiculous as a speaker of Plaatdeutsch saying they are not speaking Deutsch.
But except in these points of census and language which I point out as I think they are important, your post is otherwise correct, for instance, if a person who is actually Russian ticks box for Ukraine, then likely they will not bother getting too excited to rebel and will want to keep staus quo. Also the issue of inertia in that always the majority of any population, tho they may talk in private about these important issues, will never take to the streets, it is only the minority, and they are usually people who know and think about the issues deeply. I have a view that may seem harsh or even arrogant, but it is like in elections, if you vote then likely you are capable of thinking and have a stake in the result, if you do not vote, then you have no voice and it must be presumed you do not care, in which case sit on the sidelines and do not complain as you are simply lumpen. The point I make is that irrespective of what any census tells us, what counts is when action is required who is it that takes up arms and comes out onto the streets. If in a city that the census shows has "Ukranian" majority, but those on the streets are Russian, and they win, then there should not be any crying. The converse is true of course, but "funny stuff" occured in 2014, and it must not be forgotten that in Mariupol well armed outsiders effectively surrounded and stormed the city. What can unarmed citizens do against banderas backed up by UA driving into mariupol in BMPs, killing innocent people, storming the police headquarters and slaughtering the police. It was a case of the minority impossing their will over the majority by force, history is full of this. To me, the cry, heard around the networks, and here, about Ukraine, that if Russians in cities such as Kharkov or Odessa do not rise, then throw them to the banderas, is false. There are those who will rise, but they will not throw away their lives in vain and will not rise until they see that help is on the way. IMO, they cannot be dissmissed just because of the inertia of the majority, and the inertia of the majority cannot be used as an excuse for inaction. Sorry these seems like polemic rant, but it is important point that does not get discussed.
The way that these data could have been used in a predictive mode to find the most likely cities where a pro-Russian riot would happen and would become successful, comes not from the exact numbers, wich are still important, but comes from the relative positions, in an axis of the Russian ethnic presence. As I have been comenting, the successful pro-Russian riots happened in the cities with biggest ethnic Russian presence (recognized by every citizen for him/herself). And these data are likely to be useful in the same predictive way in the near future. Between the remaining territory under the control of the Ukranian government, it is very likely that potential pro-Russian riots happen where there is more people that can recognize and consider themselves as ethnically Russians.
I can not say if the people answered right or wrong to the question about ethnicity in the 2001 census, but there is a component here about how everyone consider him/herself that is important too.
From this analysis, the next important question is surely if the presence of Russian populations in the remaining places under Ukranian control is strong enough to succeed in a riot that want to leave Ukraine. This is the doubt, and as this is the most important mark in absolute terms. Today it is not a mark with an assigned numeric data. Until now the value would be around a 40% of ethnic Russian population in terms of the 2001 census, but it can change.
Also the reasoning in relative terms, is what leads to conclude that a pro-Russian riot in some city under the control of the Ukranian government will be more difficult every time. I have not doubt that the next case will be more difficult for the pro-Russians than the last case where it was a change of control (Debaltsevo). Again this is also a sentence in relative terms.
According to the data, Mariupol is the city under Ukranian control with biggest self recognition of the citizens as ethnic Russians, and also is a city in the front line. I tend to think that a fight for Mariupol will happen before a real ballance between both sides is reached. And surely this fight will be more difficult for the pro-Russian forces than the fight for Debaltsevo.
In the other side, the Ukranian government will likely to increase the attacks to Pervomaisk, Yasinovata and Debaltsevo, if they feel able to gain territory.
From the hundreds of cities over 30000 inhabitants before the begin of the war that are today under Ukranian control, the rank that I posted in the previous page was showing the 15 cities with biggest ethnically Russian presence (recognized by the own citizens). To be in the Top-15 is not a weak mark for the ethnic Russian self recognition despite to be lower than in the territory under pro-Russian control. To see it, only is necessary to remember how many cities even in the Donets and Luhansk Oblasts are not in the list (Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk,... all them have lower ethnic Russian self recognition in 2001). This is how we can understand that the rulers of Novorrussia talk to the pro-Russian people of cities outside of the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts.
44.4% Mariupol (Donetsk Oblast)
43.7% Izmail (Odessa Oblast)
??.?% Chuhuiv (Kharkiv Oblast)
39.8% Enerhodar (Zaporizhia Oblast)
38.9% Melitopol (Zaporizhia Oblast)
37.7% Konstantinivka (Donetsk Oblast)
37.4% Berdyansk (Zaporizhia Oblast)
37.3% Rubizhne (Luhansk Oblast)
36.7% Selydove (Donetsk Oblast)
36.6% Dzerzhynsk-Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast)
33.7% Avdeevka (Donetsk Oblast)
33.2% Kharkiv (Kharkiv Oblast)
32.9% Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast)
31.5% Dimitrov (Donetsk Oblast)
29.0% Odessa (Odessa Oblast)
...