Russian Economy General News: #8

At 82 Trillion Rouble , Russian Bank Asset as big as Russian GDP today , I assume this is combine Public and Private bank.

Deposits at 11.5 Trillion roughly $210 Billion

Check this out:

http://ren.tv/novosti/2017-09-17/smi-rossii-grozit-nehvatka-smartfonov-iphone-x

Essentially, providers in Russia fear that there are not enough iPhoneX's to be released in Russia to meet the demand, as online pre-orders have been huge. So there will be a slump till more stock comes in.

This is a good example of how Russian's are far from "poor".

miketheterrible wrote:Check this out:

http://ren.tv/novosti/2017-09-17/smi-rossii-grozit-nehvatka-smartfonov-iphone-x

Essentially, providers in Russia fear that there are not enough iPhoneX's to be released in Russia to meet the demand, as online pre-orders have been huge.  So there will be a slump till more stock comes in.

This is a good example of how Russian's are far from "poor".

Russians are afflicted with a grossly exaggerated perception of the wealth of westerners (i.e. NATO residents). This
is thanks to centuries of propaganda (yes, centuries). This distortion results in Russians thinking of themselves as
being poorer than they actually are and having unreasonable expectations about what their standard of living should be.
Thanks to the commie era, there is a serious entitlement syndrome. People think that paying 13% flat tax (straight from
the USSR period) is normal. They should look to their beloved west and see what real taxation systems look like. If
they want free this and free that, then they need to pay more taxes. The commie system is gone and they were the
ones who thought that it was not good enough in the first place!

The above distortion of perception is what NATO tries to leverage to stage a colour revolution in Russia. Supposedly
Russians will live the good western life and crawl out of their pit of poverty and corruption if they pucker up and start
to kiss NATO a**. The idiots in Pukeraine went for this BS and are now scrambling off their sinking ship. You even have
Lviv residents running off to Russia (the focus of their hate) for jobs.

There is no harm in increasing tax % by 2-3 % say from 13% flat to 16% , it wont do much harm but would be additional source of revenue ...In my own country the tax rate is 20-30 %

Agreed. Although I would say 15% is wide. SImple numbers. But hell, most Russians are waking up to the so called "west life is good life" thanks to Ukraine. Hence why I think the Ukraine issue is a good wake up call for average Russian. But its basic consumerism will still be a problem for some time.

miketheterrible wrote:Agreed. Although I would say 15% is wide. SImple numbers.  But hell, most Russians are waking up to the so called "west life is good life" thanks to Ukraine. .......

And this is why the Ukraine needs to be bled dry and sliced into pieces. Not just because of geopolitics but because of local politics as well.

Case in point: back in 99 when NATO was dropping bombs on us we had habit of saying:  "It sucks but at least we are not living in Russia"

And even then everyone knew that Ukraine was even bigger shithole than Russia. Serbian truck drivers were routinely driving to Russia via Belarus in order to avoid the Ukraine even before 2014.

2 decades later Russia gets it's shit together and starts doing​ things right while the Ukraine goes down the shitter even more.

How retarded average Russian has to be to think that the Ukraine can be any better than any other country in Europe?

The Spectator Index‏ @spectatorindex 24 hours ago

Trade balance, past 12 months. ($ billion)

US: -783
UK: -175
India: -132
France: -68

Russia: +102
Japan: +189
Germany: +268
China: +444

PapaDragon wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:Agreed. Although I would say 15% is wide. SImple numbers.  But hell, most Russians are waking up to the so called "west life is good life" thanks to Ukraine. .......

And this is why the Ukraine needs to be bled dry and sliced into pieces. Not just because of geopolitics but because of local politics as well.

Case in point: back in 99 when NATO was dropping bombs on us we had habit of saying:  "It sucks but at least we are not living in Russia"

And even then everyone knew that Ukraine was even bigger shithole than Russia. Serbian truck drivers were routinely driving to Russia via Belarus in order to avoid the Ukraine even before 2014.

2 decades later Russia gets it's shit together and starts doing​ things right while the Ukraine goes down the shitter even more.

How retarded average Russian has to be to think that the Ukraine can be any better than any other country in Europe?

average Russian doesn't, hence Putin's support and also the decreasing support for Ukrainians. The only ones who do, are the same useful idiot libtards (whom are also Nazi supporter, strange combination), who knows that they can get a cushy job, paid in USD, sitting in Ukraine and Bitching about Russia all day long. No one in their right mind likes Ukraine, not even Ukrainians. Why else is the population fleeing in numbers we haven't seen since 1993?

Its just Ukraine is a real world example of what would happen if you jump into arms of the west, like it was in the 90's in Russia. Things between Russia then and now are two different entities.

Siluanov spoke about the main directions of expenditures of the three-year budget

https://ria.ru/economy/20170918/1504988360.html

"The main volume of expenditures is envisaged for the direction to the social sphere - 36.4%, defense - 29%, we carry out plans for purchases of arms and military equipment, national economy - 14.7%." Here are the three structural directions of spending the federal budget, " Said Siluanov.


According to him, the general parameters of budget expenditures for the next two years are increased compared to those provided for in the law on the budget for 2017-2019, by 300 billion rubles in 2018 and by 200 billion rubles in 2019.

At the same time, the minister stressed that all previously accepted budget commitments are envisaged for implementation. "The presidential decrees of May 2012 are also provided for by the full ruble in the next year," the minister said.

"By the way, we support the subjects of the Russian Federation in the implementation of decrees, because a significant part of the workload, especially for the wages of state employees, will have to be done by the constituents, and in this regard, the regions are allocated in addition to the support norms of 100 billion rubles for the fulfillment of wage tasks," - said the head of the Ministry of Finance. Thus, he said, approximately 30% of the increase in public sector employees' wages in 2018 will fall on the shoulders of the federal budge

[quote="Austin"]Siluanov spoke about the main directions of expenditures of the three-year budget

https://ria.ru/economy/20170918/1504988360.html

"The main volume of expenditures is envisaged for the direction to the social sphere - 36.4%, defense - 29%, we carry out plans for purchases of arms and military equipment, national economy - 14.7%." Here are the three structural directions of spending the federal budget, " Said Siluanov.

They should reverse the trend and spend 36 % on National Economy , 29 % on Defence and 15 % on Social Sphere.

Spending 36 % on Social Sphere is just too high and drain on the economy .....Looks like Nanny State

The Ministry of Finance plans in 2018-2020. to place Eurobonds for $ 7 billion a year

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4570537

MOSCOW, September 18. / TASS /. The Ministry of Finance of Russia plans in 2018-2020 state external borrowing in the form of sovereign eurobonds in the amount of $ 7 billion annually for up to 30 years, the draft federal budget for 2018 and for the planning period 2019-2020 says.

Simultaneously, the Ministry of Finance in 2018-2020 can exchange old issues of Eurobonds for up to $ 4 billion a year in order to reduce the volume of the state external debt of the Russian Federation, reduce the cost of its servicing and reduce the total amount of payments on external debt.

The upper limit of the state external debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2019 is planned at the level of $ 71 billion, follows from the draft budget.

As of January 1, 2020, the upper limit of the national debt is set at $ 72 billion, as of January 1, 2021, $ 70.2 billion.

In 2017, the Ministry of Finance also planned to place Eurobonds at $ 7 billion, of which new issues - only $ 3 billion, another $ 4 billion - is the exchange of operating securities for new ones. In June, the Finance Ministry placed two issues of Eurobonds with redemption in 2027 and 2047 for $ 3 billion. This week, the Ministry of Finance conducts the exchange of Eurobonds with redemption in 2018 and 2030 just for issues placed in June. Exchange requests are collected by VTB Capital, Sberbank CIB and Gazprombank, and the results of the tender should be announced on September 20.

Подробнее на ТАСС:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/4570537

Medvedev estimated the average annual growth of Russia's GDP in 2018-2020, above 2%

https://rns.online/economy/Medvedev-otsenil-srednegodovoi-rost-VVP-Rossii-v-2018-2020-godah-vishe-2--2017-09-18/

2 % growth is just too low , What can Russia do to have a sustained growth of 4-5 % for the next 10 years or so.

Any thing specific can any one point out the steps they should take ?

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3414499?from=hotnews

The forecasted deficit of the federal budget in 2018 will be 1.332 trillion rubles. In 2019 this indicator should be reduced to 867 billion rubles, and in 2020 - to grow up to 960 billion rubles.

According to the estimates of the Ministry of Finance, thus, the budget deficit in shares of GDP will be 1.37% in 2018, 0.84% ​​in 2019, and 0.87% in 2020.

The draft document fixes the proposal of the Ministry of Finance to cut spending on security and defense in 2018-2020. Now it is planned to allocate 1.021 trillion rubles for this area. The Ministry insists on the figure of 943.6 billion rubles.

To ensure the obligations it is planned to attract substantial external borrowings. The Ministry of Finance intends in 2018-2020 to issue Eurobonds for $ 7 billion annually. These bonds will be urgent - their full repayment should occur within 30 years. At the same time, the agency retains the possibility of exchanging eurobonds of previous issues to new ones. Their cost, however, is proposed to limit $ 4 billion a year.

Will Finance Ministry win an Nobel In Economic if they keep Budget Defict at 0.8 % at cost of strangulating the Russian Economy ?

Russian can easily sustain a 2-3 % budget deficit for a long time and money can be used to fund National Economy

Austin wrote:2 % growth is just too low , What can Russia do to have a sustained growth of 4-5 % for the next 10 years or so.

Any thing specific can any one point out the steps they should take ?

Sure..

The first step is Putin to Resign , and replace him with someone that
understand the western capitalist industry ,how they influence the world.

Russia needs to modernize its economy.. and stop the development
of Russia economy as if was a third world nation of africa. that depends on Oil
,Mining and agriculture.. just like Russia. only modern business Russia have its
its military and space program which they not taking seriously the last one anyway.

1)Privatize its energy business ,. Sell it to the 5th column billionaires in Russia.
2)Promote clean Energy revolution,solar energy ,hydrongen and electric cars.. magnetic trains transportation. and continue as they doing in their nuclear energy. Russia needs to be
independent of OIL , and promote an alternative.. and this also will collapse the US petrodollar
System. will end the Kurds ambitions of kurdistan and will end the wars for pipelines. it will
also destroy Americans energy industry.
3)Instead of Agriculture.. Russia should promote Intellectual business. Promote the IT industry
and electronic/digital and software entertainment industry..thats were the money is.
That is to promote a competition to American top electronic IT giants like Microsoft ,Intel ,Apple. etc.. and produce high quality software with Russia own operating System to replace windows ,and its own gaming industry.
4)Creation of a new internet globally with CHina.
5)Fully develop an international banking system away of American control.
6)Stay away from sports and invest the money Russia use for olympics in its space program.
  Develop a Space tourism industry before Americans. Moon orbit travels services.. etc
.create its own space station for tourist.. Billionaires will form long lines to get a ticket for traveling to space as tourist.
7)Lastly Russia needs to stop wasting Russia budget soviet parades or charity to veterans that not even live in Russia. Replace the victory parades with their civilian march of celebrating family members lost in the war.

So Russia needs an modern innovative industrial revolution. and stop developing Russia economy as if it was a banana republic.. relying on energy and food and mining.


Integration between BRICS will not work ever because of cultural differences. it helps
minimize the sanctions of the west on Russia ,but doesn't solve the problem.
Russia needs to isolate United States ,from its European and Asian industrial giants allies.
and it will not do it by building bigger nukes , or by making better tanks or by gas discounts.
Instead Russia needs to proof the west , that it doesn't need to follow United States at all.
that Russia and China in combination with Europe can create a much better alternative.

As long Russia does not address the issue of the Hostilities of Americans on Russia economy..
it will continue experiencing Economic problems or very limited progress. Right now Americans are helping Ukraine and eastern europe to develop its wheat industry to damage Russia agriculture.. and targeting Oil value ,but pumping oil in the market like there is no tomorrow..
so this attacks are only possible because Russia economic model is very outdated and not innovative.   If Russia sells potatos and chicken ,then Americans will sell potatos and chicken ,just to damage Russia economy.. and this is the whole core of Russian problems. that is in the middle of an economic war.. and by just lowering interest or selling more bananas is not going to fix the volatility of the Russia economy.  Tomorrow Americans provokes a war in transnistria
and Russia will need to send another Syria like mission there,, and waste 600 millions a year in defending an ally.. then Serbia or Venezuela attacked and the same.. more money Russia will need to spend defending allies.

So this is why Putin Economic Strategy is so Wrong at so many levels..
it does not deal with the real core of the issue that is Americans attacks and sabotage on Russia economy. Many claim it doesn't work.. but thats not true. Russia was forced to reduce is space and military budgets by a lot ,consequences of Americans pressure on Russia economy. By Putin Ignoring Americans war on Russia economy.. and just focusing in
its "pivot to Asia"  then Putin is basically doing this to their american partners..



Is avoiding to look at its problems. but by looking to the sides you don't solve problems.
instead you encourage enemies to continue attacking you ,because they will see you are weak and there will be no consequences for your actions. So as long Putin continue being weak ,
and turning the other cheek whenever slapped in the face ,he will only encourage americans
to hit Russia harder the next time. because they know Russia will do nothing ,even if a plane shutdown.

So Russia have no option but to fight back.. or allow Americans to collapse Russia as they
did to the soviet union. Russia will not collapse United States by just replacing the dollar..
the over value of the dollar comes as consequences of American HUGE business influence
in the west. American leadership in business are needed by Europe and Japan and all NATO nations..and they will not abandon the American business world for Russia Sochi and St petersburg museums . or for Russia discount in gas and powerful nukes.  

So Russia economic problems is directly connected with Russia lack of business
influence in the world. If Russia announced tomorrow with CHina is landing with humans in the moon and building now a base and announced a new internet and Computers ,you will see
all Europe is total awe , and starting to wonder if it is time to abandon the American world and join Russia and China instead.

and one way to fight back is a military fight.. force americans to peace by using force.. or the other is by collapsing American business influence in the world ,and attracting Europe to the Russian orbit with modern business superior to the American ones.. Russia in a business alliance with China and India can do that.. an alternative to american internet, alternative to Microsoft spy windows ,alternative to American IT industry and entertainment .  Russia to fix
its economy needs to create modern and innovative technology driven business.  and defeat
American top IT business , that are stealing the show with their NATO allies.

In this conference DR micho kaku warned latin america. about the obsolete models of economy.. and the new era of Intelectual business.

who will be rich? and who will poor? ask MIchio kaku
Commodities based economies will be the poorest..


and Nations which business are focused in Information technology , arts , entertainment,computers will be the richest.

Apple alone have a bigger GDP than Russia. imagine that.
this is because Apple business is more influential than all Business of Russia combined.
If you asked the planet in a poll if they had to choose between Apple and all Russian business
majority will choose apple instead. This is real power. when your business are seen as very valuable by society ,then you own them.

Russia need a total transformation of its economy from Commodities and energy to Intellectual
innovative technology of the 21 century. that everyone wants. US economic problems is not
consecuence of its Top business .but of its Military over spending and endless wars. but their business are very prosperous ,is the government and politicians that RUins american economy.

^^ I dont agree with what all you say and Putin vision of economic is very conservative even if that means low growth but he prefers low debt and stability within Russian Economy over any thing else

Russia is blessed with Energy Product so there is no need to dump it just because others say or do because the so called others dont have any natural resources and all they do is print fiat currency increase debt .....they cant print oil or gas.

Energy is core russian strength and they have to use to strategically and economically for the well being of the nation.

The three-year budget does not include revenues from the privatization of large state-owned companies' packages Interfax

https://www.vedomosti.ru/newsline/economics/news/2017/09/18/734291-trehletnii-byudzhet-privatizatsii

The three-year budget, the project of which was approved by the government on September 18, laid the proceeds of privatization in the amount of less than 10 billion rubles. in year. According to Interfax, this was after the government meeting, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov told journalists. Thus, he said, the proceeds are not pawned by large sales.

Maxim Oreshkin, the Minister of Economic Development, in his turn, said that this does not mean that there will be no privatization of large assets, "a conservative scenario is simply laid", but the vector "to reduce the state share in the economy remains."

The draft federal budget for 2018 and the planning period 2019-2020. calculated on the basis of inflation at 4% per year. The budget deficit for 2018 is planned at 1.37% of GDP (1.332 trillion rubles). The projected volume of budget revenues is 15 trillion 182.14 billion rubles, expenditures - 16 trillion 514.6 billion rubles. The upper limit of the state domestic debt as of January 1, 2019 is set at 10 trillion 586.5 billion rubles, external - $ 71 billion, or 60.2 billion euros. The volume of GDP for 2018-2020. is projected at a rate of 97.46 trillion, 103.23 trillion rubles and 110.24 trillion rubles. respectively.

Income to the budget from dividends of state-owned companies and state-owned banks in the amount envisaged in the amount of just over 400 billion rubles. a year, Silouananov also reported. According to him, it is expected that key companies will allocate 50% of IFRS net profit for dividends. "We also envisage the payment of dividends on banks with state participation, which will be calculated, including taking into account the fulfillment of the capital adequacy ratio. Therefore, the total amount of dividends for the three-year period is taken into account slightly more than 400 billion rubles annually, "the minister said and added that the decisions on the size of dividends of specific companies and banks will be made by the government when preparing voting directives on the boards of directors.

The projected volume of budget revenues is 15 trillion 182.14 billion rubles, expenditures - 16 trillion 514.6 billion rubles. The upper limit of the state domestic debt as of January 1, 2019 is set at 10 trillion 586.5 billion rubles, external - $ 71 billion, or 60.2 billion euros. The volume of GDP for 2018-2020. is projected at a rate of 97.46 trillion, 103.23 trillion rubles and 110.24 trillion rubles. respectively.

Just doing some back of paper calculation for Public debt based on the offical figure as of Jan 1 2019 , The GDP is at say 97.46 Trillion Rouble.

Debt Local 10 Trillion 586 and $71 Billion as of Jan 1 2019 , $71 Billion assuming 1 Trillion Rouble is $16 Billion  4.4 Trilion

Total Debt [ Internal + External ] = ~ 15 Trillion , GDP @ 97.46 Trillion :  Debt ~ 16 %  by 1st Jan 2019

Russia increased investment in US government bonds to $ 103.1 billion

Russia increased investment in US government bonds to $ 103.1 billion Photo: www.globallookpress.com/CHROMORANGE / Bilderbox
Russia in July 2017 compared with the previous month increased investment in US government bonds by $ 200 million - up to $ 103.1 billion, according to data from the US Treasury.

Compared with July 2016, Russia increased its US Treasury bonds portfolio by $ 14.9 billion. Russia ranks 14th among foreign holders of US government bonds.

Among the largest holders of US Treasury bonds are countries such as China, Japan, Ireland, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The largest holders of US Treasury bonds were China, which last month surpassed Japan in terms of investments in the US national debt. So, China has the obligations of the US Treasury at $ 1.16 trillion, and Japan - $ 1.11 trillion.

China ceased to be the largest creditor of the US, reducing the amount of investment in US Treasury bonds and losing first place to Japan in October 2016.

^^ One of the most Stupidist thing CBR can do is to invest in US T Bills

Why not remove all the money from T Bills and invest in Russian Economy , provide Cheap Credit at 5 % interest for Small Medium Business and for other aspect of economy ?

T Bills usually pay very low interest and its a way of subsidising US Government for Sanctioning Russia

https://www.rt.com/business/403804-russian-sea-ports-ruble-settlements/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

Putin orders to end trade in US dollars at Russian seaports

To protect the interests of stevedoring companies with foreign currency obligations, the government was instructed to set a transition period before switching to ruble settlements.

According to the head of Russian antitrust watchdog FAS Igor Artemyev, many services in Russian seaports are still priced in US dollars, even though such ports are state-owned.

The proposal to switch port tariffs to rubles was first proposed by the president a year and a half ago. The idea was not embraced by large transport companies, which would like to keep revenues in dollars and other foreign currencies because of fluctuations in the ruble.

Artemyev said the decision will force foreigners to buy Russian currency, which is good for the ruble.

In 2016, his agency filed several lawsuits against the largest Russian port group NMTP. According to FAS, the group of companies set tariffs for transshipment in dollars and raised tariffs from January 2015 "without objective grounds."

The watchdog ruled that NMTP abused its dominant position in the market and imposed a 9.74 billion rubles fine, or about $165 million at the current exchange rate. The decision was overturned by a court in Moscow in July this year.

Austin wrote:2 % growth is just too low , What can Russia do to have a sustained growth of 4-5 % for the next 10 years or so.

Any thing specific can any one point out the steps they should take ?

This figure is not credible and is designed to pacify the NATO hyenas. As I posted there was a surge of growth in 2015 and 2016
which offset the massive dollar debt paydown. Yet somehow it has totally disappeared as of 2017. That smells really badly of
figure manipulation. The import substitution growth which clearly occurred in 2015-16 cannot disappear in a year, it is a structural
adjustment that will last years and is actually still ongoing and is not saturated. So unless there is a massive and secret flight of
dollars that is happening now (2017 and in the coming years) then I estimate the GDP growth rate should be about 5%. This is
consistent with the observed increase in capital investment. A 2% growth figure is basically pseudo-stagnation and there is just
too much active development in Russia (see sdelanounas.ru) for such a measly figure to be real.

kvs wrote:

Austin wrote:2 % growth is just too low , What can Russia do to have a sustained growth of 4-5 % for the next 10 years or so.

Any thing specific can any one point out the steps they should take ?

This figure is not credible and is designed to pacify the NATO hyenas.   As I posted there was a surge of growth in 2015 and 2016
which offset the massive dollar debt paydown.   Yet somehow it has totally disappeared as of 2017.   That smells really badly of
figure manipulation.   The import substitution growth which clearly occurred in 2015-16 cannot disappear in a year, it is a structural
adjustment that will last years and is actually still ongoing and is not saturated.     So unless there is a massive and secret flight of
dollars that is happening now (2017 and in the coming years) then I estimate the GDP growth rate should be about 5%.   This is
consistent with the observed increase in capital investment.   A 2% growth figure is basically pseudo-stagnation and there is just
too much active development in Russia (see sdelanounas.ru) for such a measly figure to be real.

I Don't take to heart the GDP number schemes. When we hear of Ukraine growing by over 2% this year, you know the numbers are bullshit. Reality is on the ground, not on a piece of paper.

miketheterrible wrote:Check this out:

http://ren.tv/novosti/2017-09-17/smi-rossii-grozit-nehvatka-smartfonov-iphone-x

Essentially, providers in Russia fear that there are not enough iPhoneX's to be released in Russia to meet the demand, as online pre-orders have been huge.  So there will be a slump till more stock comes in.

This is a good example of how Russian's are far from "poor".

I just wish that Russians would stop supporting Apple, they are closely associated with western intelligence agencies. Buy from Russian phone makers or from Chinese companies like Huawei or other Chinese manufacturers. Support/buy Russian and than buy from countries that are allies of Russia.