For me Vietnam would be a major potential buyer and also Venezuela and possibly Iran. Depending on the prevailing wind India could become a major customer. China would not because of their own projects - they may want to by one or two though
Isos wrote:Yeah sure but even at 20 million dollars unit price that wouldn't be more than 40 fighters for all of them.
They are all broken countries. Russia won't sell for free like USSR did.
Markets for Checkmate: China, UAE, Egypt, Algeria
China isn't. UAE is buying f-35 so US will firbid them russian hardware, Egypt may buy it to replace f-16 and Algeria may buy a douzen not more.
Egypt can be the only big buyer.
Then India also could buy a lot of them when they find out their tejas is a shitty program and western planes are too expensive to fly.
African countries can also buy some. I guess 6 here, 12 there, 10 here... will allow some 100 to be sold.
It has a big potential. I hope developement goes faster than they think and start it in 2024/2025.
I'll wager China will buy as many Checkmates as Su 35 that they had purchased.
India is purchasing French fighter so obviously they can afford to purchase western jets in the future as well. Serviceability rate of Russian fighter jets is poor around the world much below western fighter jets. Besides export version of Russian hardware is way below that of Western military hardware that is exported.
China bought su-35 for its engines. I doubt russia will give the izd 30 on checkmate. By that time they will buy a j-31 or something else.
India couldn't purchase what they needed with the rafale because of it price. They bought only 36 when they needed more than 100. And westerns block any ToT for them after they choose their jets. Tejas will be their prefered choice IMO since it is indian.
Isos wrote:China bought su-35 for its engines. I doubt russia will give the izd 30 on checkmate. By that time they will buy a j-31 or something else.
India couldn't purchase what they needed with the rafale because of it price. They bought only 36 when they needed more than 100. And westerns block any ToT for them after they choose their jets. Tejas will be their prefered choice IMO since it is indian.
Rafale is a very capable fighter, LCA is barely an improved Mig 21. Both are non stealthy and can be easily detected.
Chinese S-400 placed in Tibet have all but sealed the skies over Northern and Eastern India. So even with a stealth aircraft like Checkmate they won't be able to breach Chinese airspace.
Rafale is expensive for india but also old. France already refused ToT so it is unlikely they select it for another contract unless they buy only jets like for the first 36.
They are interested in gighters only if it comes with ToT for their own projects.
They have tejas but are also working on their own 5th gen fighters.
So if Russia wants to sell the checkmate they will need to give them the technologies with it.
So if Russia wants to sell the checkmate they will need to give them the technologies with it.
That might be a sticking point... this aircraft is to be very capable but also cheap to buy and cheap to operate, so giving it away to India is unlikely unless there is a clause that they do not export to other countries and only produce the aircraft for domestic use only.
Looking at MiGs single engined fighter model I would expect it is going to also be very cheap to buy and cheap to operate so there will likely be options.
The Rafale is a nice plane but India paid over 300 million per aircraft... that is ridiculous... unless they got full ToT, which they didn't.
Chinese S-400 placed in Tibet have all but sealed the skies over Northern and Eastern India. So even with a stealth aircraft like Checkmate they won't be able to breach Chinese airspace.
But then Indian S-400s placed in Northern and Eastern India are going to seal off airspace over an enormous volume of Chinese airspace too... and reports that Indian Flankers can detect and track Chinese stealth fighters are large distances suggests they are stealthy only in name anyway.
The checkmate customers will most likely be those who currently fly mig-21, mig-23, su-22, and those operating old mig-29. You could add to this J-7, and other light aircraft such as A4 Skyhawk, F-5, etc. U could also say countries who are also looking to build a decent air force who want to upgrade from turboprops or no air force at all. This would range from South and Central America all the way across the African continent, to parts of Asia. So apart from maybe Egypt and middle East countries placing larger orders, the rest will be placing small orders and this will secure parts and maintenance contracts for 15-20yrs at least. This is what helps keep defence companies going while building and designing new aircraft.
d_taddei2 wrote:The checkmate customers will most likely be those who currently fly mig-21, mig-23, su-22, and those operating old mig-29. You could add to this J-7, and other light aircraft such as A4 Skyhawk, F-5, etc. U could also say countries who are also looking to build a decent air force who want to upgrade from turboprops or no air force at all. This would range from South and Central America all the way across the African continent, to parts of Asia. So apart from maybe Egypt and middle East countries placing larger orders, the rest will be placing small orders and this will secure parts and maintenance contracts for 15-20yrs at least. This is what helps keep defence companies going while building and designing new aircraft.
The checkmate customers i think must have money to pay above all
d_taddei2 wrote:The checkmate customers will most likely be those who currently fly mig-21, mig-23, su-22, and those operating old mig-29. You could add to this J-7, and other light aircraft such as A4 Skyhawk, F-5, etc. U could also say countries who are also looking to build a decent air force who want to upgrade from turboprops or no air force at all. This would range from South and Central America all the way across the African continent, to parts of Asia. So apart from maybe Egypt and middle East countries placing larger orders, the rest will be placing small orders and this will secure parts and maintenance contracts for 15-20yrs at least. This is what helps keep defence companies going while building and designing new aircraft.
The checkmate customers i think must have money to pay above all
Well of course u think Russia giving them out for free?
If a country wants fixed wing decent aircraft they have to pay, but there isn't much on market with s price tag and capabilities as checkmate which will be it's unique selling point. And poorer countries will most likely either borrow credit from Russia, tap into its reserves like Uganda did for Su-30, or do a trade deal. Either way of they want them they will find a way. On the other hand USA won't be able to even compete on price even secondhand aircraft sales and even if USA did decide to offer secondhand aircraft slightly cheaper, who would want old secondhand aircraft when u can get better and new aircraft, with no red tape. Lol
I wonder for how long will the US ban on Russian weapon sales hold on. Once the S-400 gets exported to Saudi Arabia perhaps the floodgates will open.
With regards to comparisons of the Su-30MKI to the J-16. Several decades difference comparison. Compare with the current products like the Su-35. The Su-35 also uses composites. It also has pretty much all the gizmos on that list except the AESA radar. Still we don't know how good Chinese radar is and to be honest I have my doubts.
The Sukhoi LTS will preempt a lot of weapon sales which would have gone on otherwise and now the Middle Eastern countries have an alternative to the JSF they can point at. This is also Sukhoi flying under the Chinese since not offering the single engine stealth airplane would mean more sales to the Chinese lightweights be it the JF-17, FC-31, or whatever. A lot of countries cannot or will not purchase US weapons anyway, so those markets will be open.
lancelot wrote:I wonder for how long will the US ban on Russian weapon sales hold on. Once the S-400 gets exported to Saudi Arabia perhaps the floodgates will open.
For a very long time. They need every obstacle to their potential customers buying anything Russian that they can dig out and enforce. Plus its difficult to roll back any Congress decision, CATSA, when potential votes are at stake.
lancelot wrote:The Sukhoi LTS will preempt a lot of weapon sales which would have gone on otherwise and now the Middle Eastern countries have an alternative to the JSF they can point at. This is also Sukhoi flying under the Chinese since not offering the single engine stealth airplane would mean more sales to the Chinese lightweights be it the JF-17, FC-31, or whatever. A lot of countries cannot or will not purchase US weapons anyway, so those markets will be open.
This was the West's fighter manufacturer's worst nightmare, an advanced aircraft at a price they can't match. It will even impact those of their opportunities they can count on as those potential customers will be much tougher on pricing.
This has probably been commented on before but looking at these photos, from the Su-57 thread, has the whole, or large chunks, of the front fuselage been cut and pasted across?
The Ministry of Defense may consider the purchase of Checkmate fighters within the framework of the GPV
Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov pointed out that foreign customers are always interested in whether the native armed forces take the equipment that they offer for export
TYUMEN, September 17. /TASS/. The Ministry of Defense may consider the purchase of Checkmate single-engine fighters as part of the future state armament program. This was announced to journalists by Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Yuri Borisov on the sidelines of the Tyumen Oil and Gas Forum.
"In the plans of the future GPV, [the Ministry of Defense and the Aerospace Forces] will consider the possibility of acquiring it [the fighter]," the Deputy Prime Minister said. Foreign customers are always interested in whether the native armed forces take the equipment that they offer for export." According to Borisov, the Ministry of Defense and the Aerospace Forces have historically been "cautious" about single-engine fighters, preferring "twin-engine aircraft for reliability". Nevertheless, single-engine fighters are quite widespread in the world military aviation.
"As far as I remember, the start of flight tests is in 2023, the organization of mass production in the presence of demand, I think that 2025-2026 is quite realistic," Borisov believes. - Otherwise, we simply will not enter this market, where there are already American and Chinese [single-engine] models. According to its potential characteristics, this aircraft has a very good potential, it has all the prospects to occupy a certain niche and it already has potential buyers. Two criteria: its quick launch on the market and a reasonable price are its characteristics that will allow it to occupy an appropriate niche, " he said.
Borisov added that the aircraft has a number of characteristics corresponding to fifth-generation fighters, in particular, the internal fuselage suspension of all aircraft weapons
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/12427691
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Thinking about the new state armaments program as Borisov says, it immediately makes sense that UAC named 2027 as the year when the plane should be ready for deliveries. So, it seems they want to be considered from the beginning in the ongoing planing and guarantee they are one of the main items the new program.
And how in detail would Argentina - a country balancing on the edge of economic collapse for years and having no significant industry in any sphere, yet aviation - benefit from licensing the most expensive jet out there?
Mindstorm wrote:Yes Матрешка is an automated logistic support system, fundamentally very similar to ODIN, major differences with the F-35 system are the extension of the monitoring sensor suit and the presence on-board of a true AI (that will also allow complete robotization of the aurcraft) capable to process all the status data and promote variations to flight's dynamics without the need of theirs transference and remote processing.
I realize you never find anything positive about U.S weapons, however the U.S is also keeping track of the developments being made in Russia.
To make missile detection and avoidance more complicated for the Su-57, Su-75, Su-35 and SU 30SM we will soon arm our F-35s with two stage long range Air-To-Air Missile. The combination of throttleable “multi-pulse solid rocket motors” and novel “propellants, grain configurations, cases, and liners” will allow this missile to deliver greater speeds, as well as ranges, compared to existing weapons, such as the AIM-120.
RTN wrote:I realize you never find anything positive about U.S weapons, however the U.S is also keeping track of the developments being made in Russia.
To make missile detection and avoidance more complicated for the Su-57, Su-75, Su-35 and SU 30SM we will soon arm our F-35s with two stage long range Air-To-Air Missile. The combination of throttleable “multi-pulse solid rocket motors” and novel “propellants, grain configurations, cases, and liners” will allow this missile to deliver greater speeds, as well as ranges, compared to existing weapons, such as the AIM-120.
Cool, now all you need to do is get the F-35 to fly properly in less than perfect weather conditions, not shoot itself with its own gun, not have its stealth coating peel off in supersonic flight, increase its range so it can actually fly far enough to attack something useful, increase its speed so it doesn't get left in the dust by the Tu-160 and also stop asphyxiating its pilots like a BDSM session gone wrong.
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RTN i don't think anyone is denying the US can make impressive and technologically advanced weapons, but the F*** ups they have accumulated in the last 20 years is astonishing.
The problem for the US is that the Russians don't rely on AWACS to detect and track enemy targets, they use OTH radar with much greater range and much better performance to detect and track targets very early on.
And the Russians already have the R-37M in service that greatly outranges AMRAAM and are in the process of introducing its replacement, the Izd 810 which will have even better performance and be carried by all their new and upgraded aircraft... including their new bombers...
They are also working on new long range missiles with multiple mini missiles to engage groups of targets at great distances too.
The datalink and IIR guidance for their new LMUR missile could be applied to air to air missiles too where the missile could fly deep into enemy airspace looking at every potential target it comes across where it can use an onboard database of IR 3d shapes to identify enemy targets and attack the most dangerous ones first while sending back information about the aircraft types it comes across on its flight.
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