The Situation in the Ukraine. #31

kvs wrote:The propaganda spreader is simply ignoring that the vestige of the Ukrianian army collapsed in 2014.

First things first, if I'm a propagandist you're a helicopter and not a great type either, see Mil Mi-2 ( ). On topic, I don't ignore the Ukrainian defeat but that's the distant past now (is it 7 years?). They've rebuilt and still actually hold >50%  of Donbas region firmly. Their positions are a few km away from both cities of Donetsk and Lugansk and they can effectively put both urban centers under daily artillery control, whenever they please. Now, I don't regard highly those horrid nazi battalions or crowdfounded vulunteers or other assortment of imbecile Ukrainian irregulars or so-called national guard... and certainly don't consider them at all as a proper Army. Ukrainian Army itself is a bad joke. But let's be realistic here. The Russian forces in Donbas cannot go to war and fend for themselves like a real Army without supplies and cover (air or artillery) from 'you know who'. They can't sustain anything more than 1-2 months of operations. Their entire area of control (meaning both land of those republics) is effectivelly in-range for anything Ukraine can throw at them. Grads, artillery, mortars, UAVs, attack helicopters, etc. No place in both such republic is safe which makes the militias job tough in the long term. No safe place to hide as the strategic depth of their lands is too narrow and tiny and cities literally right on the frontline (see Sarajevo).



We can agree to disagree, moving on now.

Russia can't supply Pantsir 1s to the NAF until they are properly trained or have Russian crew those Turkish drones were taking them out in Libya to the glee of the Turkrat scum, i can't remember how the Pantsir crews did a workaround to take the Turkish drones down in Libya after the loss of several Pantsir units, Putin and Russia should not be selling weaponry of any kind to the Turks as they have close ties to Ukraine and several enemies of Russia, of all the muslim countries Iran and Syria are the most reliable

kvs wrote:The propaganda spreader is simply ignoring that the vestige of the Ukrianian army collapsed in 2014.

If I may say something, I think he just means LDNR has not the resources to tackle the ukies alone. This is a legit take IMHO, not necessarily wilful spreading of propaganda. Re. Mariupol, correct me if I am wrong but from what I found out, it was actually a lack of manpower that prevented to take it, risking to leave the front between Donetsk and Lugansk open for attacks. What he possible misses out is that they were not left alone back in the day and they would certainly not be left alone now, once Ukraine has given overabundant proof they don't give a damn about Minsk agreements and after Russia has no more sanctions to fear and some red lines to assert. Also I am pretty sure that those "irregulars", "civilians", taxi drivers & miners or whatever they are have been taking intensive training for the last 7 years and are more than ready to fight nazi scum fully integrated with the Russian military, advanced weapons included. Some toys can end up in their hands, some cousins from the other side of the border can come to help etc etc. And if the nazis do give Russia the excuse to blow them apart, then Russia will duly oblige, that is for sure.

As to the ukie army, I have seem enough proof of the level of degradation they have reached, that I am not so sure they are the modern, motivated, well paid and professional fighting force some may want to make them appear (Georgia was 10 years preparing for the events of 2008 and they were not the poorest shithole in Europe as Ukraine is). Confronted with Russian, the nazis MAY fight a bit longer, the rest will desert as soon as they have the opportunity.

Russia should warn America/NATZO/404 that it will halt all transit of gas via Ukraine immediately upon Ukrops attacking DonBas or more sanctions imposed on Russia, thus crippling the Gas market in Europe and ending of desperately needed transit fees for Ukraine economy as well as Poland, and Czech republic who also relies on Russian gas transit fees


for all America's bluster they can't replace Russian gas that arrives via Ukraine

Godric wrote:Russia can't supply Pantsir 1s to the NAF until they are properly trained or have Russian crew those Turkish drones were taking them out in Libya to the glee of the Turkrat scum, i can't remember how the Pantsir crews did a workaround to take the Turkish drones down in Libya after the loss of several Pantsir units, Putin and Russia should not be selling weaponry of any kind to the Turks as they have close ties to Ukraine and several enemies of Russia, of all the muslim countries Iran and Syria are the most reliable

I think Russia is not deluded about Erdogan. There was an incident after the S-400 sale where the Turks tried to pull some reverse engineering,
failed and wanted Russia to fix the scrap. Russia gave them the middle finger.

I know that it feels better not to deal with backstabbing scum, but for countries some level of engagement is better than outright hostility.
For example, antagonizing Turkey would result in the closure of the Bosphorus even if that violates conventions and whatnot. Throwing
Erdogan some crumbs but helping Syria and Kazakhstan to defeat Erdogan's irregulars and agents is the right policy.

Godric wrote:Russia should warn America/NATZO/404 that it will halt all transit of gas via Ukraine immediately upon Ukrops attacking DonBas or more sanctions imposed on Russia, thus crippling the Gas market in Europe and ending of desperately needed transit fees for Ukraine economy as well as Poland, and Czech republic who also relies on Russian gas transit fees


for all America's bluster they can't replace Russian gas that arrives via Ukraine

Would not go well for Russia if they weaponized the gas pipelines, that'd honestly be a pretty stupid thing to do.

AZ-5 wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Perhaps English isn't your first language. The way you are putting it is that the Ukrainians who were born in and live in the Donbas but who speak Russian are Russians???

Also re your last point, so how come, as just one example, the Confederate States Army in the US Civil War is an Army when it has no country?

I'm Greek. Russians in Crimea, Donbas, Odessa, Vilnius and Kalingrad. Yup They do exist. I don't buy the ''speakers'' angle, sorry. On the Army issue, I called them irregulars because most of them kinda were-are. Not the end of the world, if you prefer militia so be it. My main point was something else tho. This ''Army'' can't get the Donbas region back on its own.

my opinion

You do have Russians in the Donbass yes, many that came from Russia proper in the empire years and then during the Soviet-era. You also have Greeks and Armenians there, settled by Catherine the Great from the Crimea along with other Christians which they fled due to Muslim prosecution.

Russians, Greeks, Armenians are the main minorities in the Donbass.
The mainstay of the population have always been the Ukrainians from central Ukraine that Moscowy settled in the Donbass during the 17th century when it secured this region from the Nogay Horde.
Although no-one really divides between all of them, the population is highly mixed, and has always had people coming and going to and from neighbouring Russian regions as well, with which there was never a border before 1991.

Since the territory itself was settled under Russia, all the cities built by Russia, of course the lingua franca has always been Russian. Same for the rest of the Novorussian part of the Ukraine (east and south Ukraine); it was conquered by Russia from the Crimean Khanate, the Ottomans, etc... and all the cities built by Russia, with a considerable amount of settlers from Russia as well; hence the dominance of the Russian language there. However most of the colonists were from other parts of the Ukraine, encouraged by the Tsars.
Russia in those times was a state of all 3 Slavic peoples. 'Russia' refers to Rus', and 'Russians' to the people of Rus'; i.e. Great Russians, Little Russians, and Belarussians.

It was only after 1917 that Great Russians were renamed to just Russians, and Russia came to mean just Great Russian lands; which was formed as the Russian Federal Soviet Socialist Republic. Accordingly, the Ukraine was formed as well, as a republic of the Little Russians. It's only fair that the Donbass should be considered part of the Ukraine, as well as the rest of the mainly Ukrainian-colonized regions during the Tsarist reign.

Airbornewolf wrote:

...

I edit my posts all the time kiddo. Literally all my posts have edits. I go back and expand on my thoughts so they're more clear to the readers. Complex issues sometimes leave a lot of ambiguity that clowns like to exploit to push their little narratives and propaganda. As as I see fit, I try to box these to avoid intellectually dishonest clowns from exploiting them.... Those edits are always in line with the original post, topic or whatever else I feel is related to help expand the points. You can't prove otherwise. Sometimes by the first edit someone responds to the original or the thread. I don't have a personal editor at my disposal. An edit doesn't stop anyone from replying to the edited post or thoughts.... unless you're the type I describe above, then it clearly bothers.

Ignoring me isn't working. You're so worked up over the poopy mess you did of yourself with those wikipedia history lessons and the rest that you're still clearly having PTSD. Watching too many Braveheart type movies can distort your knowledge of history. But do go ahead and screenshot all my posts, and all my edits, I'm sure it will prove that I'm "insecure" about myself. Matter of fact, it's guaranteed this one will have edits. Kids these days call it "stay mad" and "rent free".

As for respect for "mods". Your appeal to authority here is laughable. A mod is no different than anyone else. The fact that you put particular individuals on a hierarchal pedestal says a lot about your moral compass and how you see yourself amongst the crowd. No one is above reproach. Moreover respect is earned. If the user in question (in this case a mod) comes to me with the usual trite, and on top of it full of propagandistic hypocrisy I'll do what I always do to such simple babble, I'll turn the idiocy on itself, and embarrass the user in question. After all the goal of such babble, usually, is not to simply disagree, but to cast you out of the conversation in parlay (hence the treatment they receive). You don't need to type ****, to say ****. Other users here have received appropriate civilized responses when in disagreement. Way too many clowns however, who fancy themselves as regulars worthy of "respect" will not get that treatment, not with the cheap babble they write.

Simple as..

Stay licking your wounds junior. I'll be looking forward to your next appearance on another thread where I part take for those screenshot edits - along with the usual dimwits in tow who believe this is their own playhouse and get mad like a child when their stupidity and simple mindlessness is exposed. Throwing rocks at their conditioning is bad enough... embarrassing them makes them go overdrive. It's not like I go after posters.... posters come to me, aggressively, when I post something that bothers their worldview. Exhibit A. It ain't hard. Also congratulations on the thread derail.

d_taddei2 wrote:We have to remember that most Donbass troops were civilians, and yes over the years have gain training and some small equipment. But they are up against a national army which has been digging in for years, and has had time to prepare. This isn't 2014 when Donbass separatists had element of surprise. There was very little resistance and if you don't believe me fine but I was there in Donetsk when It was unfolding, pictures and videos to show it, very little resistance and police buckled quickly.

The donbass troops don't have the expertise or have access to sophisticated equipment such as S-300, iskander, aircraft etc, and if it did kick off and land was to be taken they would need full support this isn't protecting a frontline but actually advancing and taking ground, and this won't be a shock for Ukrainian troops. And for Russia for this to be a success it needs to rapid and hard hitting, and destroying Ukrainian capabilities will also be key. You also have to remember that taking land needs troops and your talking of large amount of land and taking key areas such as ports and cities this uses up manpower. And donbass troops can't afford to be bogged down. And desperate Ukraine will fly and fire whatever it can.

Although Russia will want to avoid this option at all costs, even a small number of special forces or advisor's can still take casualties it doesn't want to send home dead troops, nor have vast amount of dead in donbass troops ranks. I would imagine a cyberware, and intelligence network would be utilised initially, followed by airstrikes on decapitating Ukrainian key assets, followed by missile artillery iskander, tornado etc to target large concentration of troops and this would along with a naval attack on Odessa would hopefully be enough for Ukraine to surrender areas of land and back off to protect the capital etc. If they don't then donbass troops would push through using armour and ATGWs, with support from shell artillery. Meanwhile any aircraft still left flying around after the initial strikes from Russia would be targeted by AD or a additional attacks by aircraft. And this would hopefully be enough.  But like I said I doubt it will come to that Ukraine knows it can't win and USA and NATO won't get involved directly. They will just try to make things as difficult for Russia as possible on the ground and indirectly through sanctions..

The Donbass forces were never really separatists. They were anti-Maidanists - this is the political sympathy that dominated the Donbass's population. In the most literal sense possible - they are rebels, and ones against an unconstitutional government.
And could have been the legitimate govt., if Yanukovich wasn't such a pussy and attempted to re-establish the government in the east of the country.

The demands for federalism took hold when it was clear that the oligarchs in Kiev and their nationalist allies had dominance in the Ukraine, thus federalism is an attempt of self-defense to protect them against Kiev's forces, and their policies of Ukrainization, Nazi glorification and so on.

Separatism did gain hold, but even during the referendum conducted during 2014, the question posed was vague, talking about 'sovereignty' of the DNR and LNR, rather than outright independence.
The overal aim was always to fight back and liberate more of the Ukraine from the hold of the oligarch-nationalist forces, rather than actually separate into a new country.

Now, 8 years on, I'm not sure what the popular mood is. Whether people just want to say fk it, and seperate, or join Russia or whatever.
But I hope that the drive for liberation of the Ukraine, or at least its southern and eastern half - has not gone away. This is ultimately what needs to happen, rather than disassociation with it.

Any op will include casualties. Just look at Syria. Plenty of mistakes bound to happen. Happens to everybody even with the best laid plans. It's war afterall. Considering how much support the Western side of Ukraine will be getting from the U.S and NATO for irregular, terrorist activity this will be costly on Russian personal anyway it's spun.

The best antidote was prevention. Putin and his cadre failed there by underestimating American intentions and not fully picturing the full extent of the anti-Russian project. Or, as is my view, being fearful of the consequences of a rapid forceful response which lead to inaction...... not because those in high seats of power at the Kremlin lacked the creativity to extrapolate American intentions and worse case scenarios aka "falling for deceit". Now the cancer, if to be excised will be bloody and worse than if it had received a strong, rapid, initial response. Excuses for failure can be aplenty for anything.

Also the propaganda that Ukraine would fall apart as a failed state and disintegrate since 2013 by Russian propagandist has proven to be obviously totally wrong. It's 2022 and Russians still haven't cracked the nut. Russians even tried playing the political game with political party assets only to have those assets neutralized and jailed. The CIA has done a really good job in that regard - clean up. States can operate like this in limbo for several decades, just look at Africa. You need an outside force that takes decisive action which in turn provides the extra push needed for internal forces/assets to make meaningful progress. The U.S does this all the time on their targets. The playbook is well written and it's not rocket science. The Kremlin and whomever has been advising Putin has simply dragged its feet with inaction, and wrong policies - first being to recognize Kiev. Second, to stop the Donbass forces when they had the upper hand by not getting directly involved etc for further land grabs etc... in a coordinated push with other regions for independence - a domino effect counter coup.

Now you're poised to do it anyway... in a worse off position in my opinion as the Ukrainian government enjoys international "legitimacy". The only thing that has changed is off course, that the air has cleared. I much prefer when the air is turbulent, easier to be opportunistic then and have the element of surprise. Let your enemies figure out their response and actions after facts on the ground.

Just like Russia has had plenty of time to prepare for an OP and think it over, so has the U.S and its allies have had time to device a response to any sort of Russian OP on Ukraine. Ukraine will be a stain mark on Putin's legacy if he doesn't solve it before he goes out - that much is certain. Even if he doesn't get the internal heat he should be getting for it. Historians are not subject to that.

Russia should just be flooding Luhansk and Donetsk with modern weaponry just to give NATZO and Ukrops a real shock

That is always an option...

and would certainly be a red line for the west that Russia could easily and very cheaply cross while making things easier for themselves... better armed these Ukrainians are less likely to need help or support in case Kiev does something stupid.

DPR and LPR already have everything they need to destroy UAF.

That is why it is nonsense to speak of a large russian invasion of ukraine.

Obvious to anyone paying attention, but an inconvenient truth for the US.

Trump bombed Syria while meeting with Xi Jinping. A false flag during the Olympics to kick it all off is highly probable.

To be fair the west invades and bombs and attacks countries all the time so often it could just be coincidence...

Any incident that sets off a conflict in Ukraine can be called a false flag because no matter what happens or who is to blame it will be Russia getting the blame for what they will call an unprovoked attack on poor innocent Kiev forces that did nothing wrong except shell civilians for half the last decade and call their victims terrorists.

The Germans are doing this consciously - there is always a choice. Germans made theirs. It's as simple as that.

But they haven't cancelled the deal either.... they are walking a tightrope and so it will be interesting how gas prices and storage levels effect their balance.

The pipelines are there if they want the gas and if they don't then that is fine they are selling to China now too and no doubt putting it on ships and selling it to countries in Asia should be quite profitable now too.

It's not acceptable after so much money, political capital and opportunity costs went down the drain on this project.

The Ukrainians have already admitted they are going to steal gas.... previously Russia had no other option, but now they do. If the EU refuses to accept gas that bypasses the Ukraine well I am sure Russia will not fold like they normally did and will either say if no one is paying for the gas kiev is stealing then we are not sending any more gas down that line. If you don't accept alternative gas routes then you are to blame for us not being able to deliver the gas you paid for and if you want to support the Ukraine why don't you pay their gas bill so they don't have to steal your gas?

Russians could have, for example, cut off Ukraine a long time ago. We will never know what the Kremlin calculus would have been if the Germans didn't say Yes to NS2 at the very beginning.

The chances of the Germans saying no to direct gas deliveries that can't be intercepted and require no transit fees and is therefore faster and cheaper was pretty low, but if they did say no then Russia probably would have built more pipelines going to China instead, and invested that money in liquification plants to allow shipping of gas anywhere that wants it.

If the US loses its grip on the EU then Germany will drop the Ukraine like a rock and enjoy this new pipeline and the cheap gas it delivers...

It won't break Russia sure.... but it sure is a big **** off.

It is not ideal, but the pipes are now there... whether they pump gas now or hydrogen in 10 years time it is not hugely important... Russia can wait... even the expensive gas that goes through the Ukraine... Russia makes good money on.... in fact EU bullshit with spot prices means they are doing very very well at the moment... most infrastructure projects like this often take 10-20 years to become profitable... all the turmoil this has caused they will probably get the 10 billion it cost in 5 years...

Russians got fucked over if it really dies for good (and it's on pace to die). The Americans understand this extremely well and are playing this extremely well. That the Germans get hurt too should be of no consequence for a Russian analyst. Russian interest are what should matter, not Germany's "predicament".

This is hurting all of the EU... gas prices have gone mad and Gazprom is making good profits off this and so are US gas producers... how else can they afford to buy these US politicians pushing these stupid sanction ideas?

If anything is going to die it is commercial production in Germany... I would think quite a few German companies are thinking of moving to Russia to regions where electricity is cheap and doesn't get turned off because the wind isn't blowing...

We have to remember that most Donbass troops were civilians, and yes over the years have gain training and some small equipment. But they are up against a national army which has been digging in for years, and has had time to prepare.

Civilians in a country that has conscription are not the same as say civilians in the UK or US.

"This was a German project" (another propaganda talking point).

No. it's a joint German/Russian project.

Who put the other 51% of the money? Who supplies the gas?

But but... it was a German project.

How do you all type this crap and click the send button.

It was a german project... if they had said no then nothing would have happened.

If they don't use the pipes this next 6 months then it is not a big deal... the only party to suffer will be the EU not having enough gas this year and their steadfast refusal for contracts means the price is never going to go very low because if it does Russia just wont put up any gas supplies to sell.

If the wind doesn't blow and the sun is screened through clouds most of the time and they return to coal energy then they are going to find their ability to meet their quotas for greenhouse gas emissions is going to be tested and they wont go for nuke power so I am guessing they are largely screwing themselves... and will eventually have to say yes to Russian gas again... by then much of that gas might be headed to Asia so they might not be able to meet all of the EUs needs for energy but then if they are prepared to spend top dollar I am sure America can help them out...

Why should I hang around a hive mind that has verbatim similar opinions to my own?

To reinforce how smart you are without actually having to think anything through or be cynical.

The overal aim was always to fight back and liberate more of the Ukraine from the hold of the oligarch-nationalist forces, rather than actually separate into a new country.

Now, 8 years on, I'm not sure what the popular mood is. Whether people just want to say fk it, and seperate, or join Russia or whatever.
But I hope that the drive for liberation of the Ukraine, or at least its southern and eastern half - has not gone away. This is ultimately what needs to happen, rather than disassociation with it.

If some foreign power instigates a coup in your country and demands everyone stop speaking a particular language that you use... lets say a radical native American political party seizes power in the US and the police and army are too politically correct to kill indians on TV and so they hold power and a first rule they impose is that English is no longer to be spoken... you have to learn native american languages depending on which area you live in... now most people will rebel against being forced to speak a different language or be banned from speaking the language they use currently... that does not mean Americans want to become English, nor does it mean they want to split away from the US and become a separate English region of the country... they might not even like the English.

These regions just want a different government in Kiev... one that actually represents their interests and does not want to force them to stop speaking the language they speak.

It's war afterall. Considering how much support the Western side of Ukraine will be getting from the U.S and NATO for irregular, terrorist activity this will be costly on Russian personal anyway it's spun.

Like it was in Georgia in 2008.

The really funny thing is that Russia isn't going to invade... a broken Ukraine is not their problem. They have no obligations under the Minsk agreements.

Russia wont be sending troops into Ukraine they can support the locals from Russia... a no fly zone... a few cruise missile strikes on ammo storage areas and armour concentrations, a few more missiles hitting HQs and comms centres in Kiev... they know exactly what they are doing...

US and HATO trained the Syrians too... and the Georgians...

Almost like you think the Russians don't know what they are doing... or that the US and HATO does know what they are doing.

The best antidote was prevention. Putin and his cadre failed there by underestimating American intentions and not fully picturing the full extent of the anti-Russian project.

Honestly Putin can say Ukrainians are Russians but I think they are much better off without those losers.

Also the propaganda that Ukraine would fall apart as a failed state and disintegrate since 2013 by Russian propagandist has proven to be obviously totally wrong.

Hahahahaha... did you notice a part called the Crimea that is no longer a part of the Ukraine.... and a second part that we are discussing that is also not doing what Kiev says... I guess breaking up into three pieces is not falling apart... NOT.

And the best part is Russia didn't do anything... the Crimeans escaped captivity and ran to Russian arms, and the Donbass is being turned every day by Kievs violence towards them to realising their future lies elsewhere... either alone... or ...

Russia isn't poised to attack Kiev, it is poised to crush a bug like it did in Georgia... if the leader in kiev is as dumb as the one in Tiblisi then Putin can get exactly what he wants.... and excuse to kick the enemy forces back a good distance and then stabilise the situation in the occupied area and let them have a referendum to decide their own future and prove yet again how Russia respects democracy and peace and people, where the US just kills and destroys and enslaves people by coups and bribes.

The people of the Donbass are not separatists and never were till they started getting bombed and shelled by Kiev with western support for the language they preferred to speak.

GarryB wrote:

Any incident that sets off a conflict in Ukraine can be called a false flag because no matter what happens or who is to blame it will be Russia getting the blame for what they will call an unprovoked attack on poor innocent Kiev forces that did nothing wrong except shell civilians for half the last decade and call their victims terrorists.

Russia will of course get the blame.... as they should. Geopolitical rivals don't play nice. Just so happens Russia's geopolitical rivals control world opinion to a much greater degree than Russia can. Russia adjudicated similar power when it dissolved the USSR. Now it can't cry wolf. "Suck it up".

What are the Americans supposed to say? "We did it"  

But they haven't cancelled the deal either.... they are walking a tightrope and so it will be interesting how gas prices and storage levels effect their balance.

The Germans are holding the project hostage for the sake of the anti-Russian project in Ukraine. That should tell you all you need to know about German intentions, German geopolitical designs and German priorities if you didn't knew it already cause of ignorance of geopolitics. The Germans see the Eurasian Economic Union, the CSTO, and the Union State as mortal threats to their European Union construct. There can ONLY be one dominant power and suprastate structure in Europe. The Germans have fought 2 world wars over it only to finally achieve their aims in peace time on the corpse of the Russian empire (Soviet Union) through deceit, the vacuum left by the Soviets, and a few bloody cadavers (Yugoslavia). Look up at the map of former Yugoslavia (how many EU member states?) The Germans won't give it up without a fight nor run away from a fight. So when it came time for action, a pre-emptive strike on Ukraine happened (the coup), and the Germans, with the EU membership plan was there for it. When they "lost" on the money side, the coup happened. It's dirty, hard nosed realpolitik. The counter answer should have been hard nosed action by Russia as well... since it was an unconstitutional coup but Putin chickened out and settled for little pieces in Crimea and the Donbass to show his displeasure. Weak shit.

The Germans will fight Russia for European primacy again, and again. That's why they find common ground with the Americans, who honestly share a lot with them culturally, and genetically, much more than with Russia (Anglo saxons after all - not to mention Germans migrations to the U.S early on, and post WW2).

The message from the Germans to Russia is simple: Strategically immolate yourself on Ukraine by doing nothing and taking it up the ass.... thus effectively dropping your dreams of expansion Westward (nipping the Eurasian Union in the bud) or you won't get our Gas money. The Germans obviously figure, sooner or later in their transition towards a "green energy mix" that the pipeline will be worthless geopolitically speaking. "We are the dominant power in Europe and the EU is the dominant suprastate" - very simple.

If today the Germans can take the hit, tomorrow the hit will be even less in their own calculus. The EU project however, it has to be there tomorrow - 10/20/30 years from now for them. Priorities are clear. There should be no illusions to this in the Kremlin or elsewhere.

With so much propaganda written on the matter by both sides the commentariat is obviously garbage as to German's play since they keep it quiet.... smartly..... and let the U.S take the Russian propaganda heat. Russia does a massive disservice in their propaganda to picture Germany as a country held hostage by U.S diktats. It's anything but a self-serving state.

The Ukrainians have already admitted they are going to steal gas.... previously Russia had no other option, but now they do. If the EU refuses to accept gas that bypasses the Ukraine well I am sure Russia will not fold like they normally did and will either say if no one is paying for the gas kiev is stealing then we are not sending any more gas down that line. If you don't accept alternative gas routes then you are to blame for us not being able to deliver the gas you paid for and if you want to support the Ukraine why don't you pay their gas bill so they don't have to steal your gas?

Russia always had options, including the option of taking the hit on the coffers and fucking the EU and Ukraine over, and not indirectly financing its own enemies. But clearly the Gazprom lobby won that battle by promising that this deal (NS2) would fix it. Well I got news for you. NS2 hasn't fixed shit. Not only that, the Germans are holding it hostage and laughing at your face while they do it. Deceit complete. Failed policy metastasized. Time wasted, precious time. If Russia wants it badly, they know what is expected of them to do...

The chances of the Germans saying no to direct gas deliveries that can't be intercepted and require no transit fees and is therefore faster and cheaper was pretty low, but if they did say no then Russia probably would have built more pipelines going to China instead, and invested that money in liquification plants to allow shipping of gas anywhere that wants it.

The Americans don't play these games. Their LNG is going to China. **** the EU. Putin and his cadre are simply fools in this regard, no other word to describe their little self-important games of "courting" Germany backfiring on them. And the Germans making the most of it obviously. You don't say no to a begging dog.

If the US loses its grip on the EU then Germany will drop the Ukraine like a rock and enjoy this new pipeline and the cheap gas it delivers...

Lol you can dream of it, as can the Kremlin. "From Lisbon to Vladivostok".

That grip is only giving away once the empire collapses. Then it's just historical inertia. And Germany will for sure challenge Russia on European primacy. They'll just have to take a more hands on role with the U.S missing as the Germans have done previously in history, including a military build up and a sort of EU army with the French and others.

Some folks don't just get it. Others refuse to get it due to mental conditioning. Others get it but the need to propagandize and play fool is what's expedient for them.

It is not ideal, but the pipes are now there... whether they pump gas now or hydrogen in 10 years time it is not hugely important... Russia can wait... even the expensive gas that goes through the Ukraine... Russia makes good money on.... in fact EU bullshit with spot prices means they are doing very very well at the moment... most infrastructure projects like this often take 10-20 years to become profitable... all the turmoil this has caused they will probably get the 10 billion it cost in 5 years...

You say Russia can wait as if time and tolerance for poor policies are still the answer to the problem. History isn't kind to this sort of thinking. It never is.

This is hurting all of the EU... gas prices have gone mad and Gazprom is making good profits off this and so are US gas producers... how else can they afford to buy these US politicians pushing these stupid sanction ideas?

If anything is going to die it is commercial production in Germany... I would think quite a few German companies are thinking of moving to Russia to regions where electricity is cheap and doesn't get turned off because the wind isn't blowing...

No one should care about what hit the EU is taking. What matters is what Russia is losing in opportunity cost and how much geopolitical restraint they've exercised to see this project succeed. Restraint that should have never taken place if the project wasn't given so much importance.

It was a german project... if they had said no then nothing would have happened.

You're factually wrong. Just cause you repeat the propaganda talking point over and over, and damage control saying "it's not a big deal" "everything will be okay" "it's not ideal but but but..." won't make you correct.

It's was/is a joint Russian/German project from the very beginning where extensive Russian political capital has been spent and geopolitics is playing a massive role. The BS meter is at an all time high on that little nugget.

To reinforce how smart you are without actually having to think anything through or be cynical.

Ego boosts fix can be had anywhere.

Like it was in Georgia in 2008.

The really funny thing is that Russia isn't going to invade... a broken Ukraine is not their problem. They have no obligations under the Minsk agreements.

You don't know what Russia is going to do or how Russia will respond to a provocation in the Donbass. A Georgia 2.0 OP is an invasion, although limited. There is no technical semantical wiggle room.

I've been on record saying that it better not be the expected response by Russian enemies, aka a Georgia 2.0 operation. Russia's enemies will happily live with that result. These states have made their calculus already on that sort of response. The enemy, that is the U.S and the EU poodles have fully prepared for it, and studied the Georgian OP to completely neutralize any potential strategic benefit for Russia of doing it. Such an op won't shake the chessboard, just like Georgia hasn't become a friendly state to Russia with a friendly elite. It does not solve the problem, it merely freezes it and creates dividing lines that the enemy is happy to live with.

It better be something else with a surprise factor at the very least. You don't keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result....

In Georgia, Russia had losses too... not sure what the response to that angle is.

Russia wont be sending troops into Ukraine they can support the locals from Russia... a no fly zone... a few cruise missile strikes on ammo storage areas and armour concentrations, a few more missiles hitting HQs and comms centres in Kiev... they know exactly what they are doing...

US and HATO trained the Syrians too... and the Georgians...

Almost like you think the Russians don't know what they are doing... or that the US and HATO does know what they are doing.

NATO knows what it's doing. Syria is in taters and effectively divided with almost 2/3s of the country outside Damascus control, completely neutralized in the geopolitical chessboard as a functioning piece. Ukraine has been prevented from falling into the Russian orbit, and into the Eurasian Economic Union, CSTO and as a potential Union State candidate, as well as providing destabilizing and and Anti-Russian activity on its Western periphery. Not to mention serving as  fuel for anti-Russian sentiment in NATOland as well as an excuse to use it as a weapon for economic war (by design).

NATO knows exactly what they're doing. They knew exactly what they were doing when they said "Fvck NO" to Putin's security proposals. All the propaganda from Russia that these people are incompetent compared to their Russian counterparts, foolish etc only mask the fact that it's Russia who's fighting to straighten out what they claim is their own sphere of influence, it's Russia that's backed up against the wall, and it's Russia that is unable to deal with this decisively. So who are the real incompetents?

And moreover they know exactly what the Russians may try to do. Including gaming a full invasion of Ukraine, and responses to it by the NATO block. That's what folks are paid to do. Just like there are plans to nuke all of Russia, well archived.

Honestly Putin can say Ukrainians are Russians but I think they are much better off without those losers.

Putin should say it, and often enough, as part of the war for minds on the public space. Not just because the majority of Ukranians are Russians, with a minority of quasi Poles, Hugarians or Romanians. God knows Russia needs people for such a vast untapped territory. One of the Putin's administration greatest shortcomings in my opinion has been his "demographics policies". Economic prosperity can flatten and reverse negative indicators from the USSR debacle but it can not fuel growth just by itself. There are millions upon millions of Russians abroad, and with direct descendants under different nationalities. A Russian passport should at the very least be much easier for those people to acquire, MUCH MUCH easier. Localized programs like those in the Donbass should be universal across the board, to include the Baltics, and all post-Soviet states including diaspora in the EU, U.S and elsewhere since the majority are economic migrants, not ideological stalwarts of the American/EU oligarchic class. Will some bad come along with it.... absolutely, but big picture, it should be a positive overall. A comprehensive strategy and plan to populate the Fart East and Central Russia needs to be crafted, and obviously very complicated since it has to involve businesses foremost, but also cultural internal propaganda etc. The Americans got it done. It can be done.

Hahahahaha... did you notice a part called the Crimea that is no longer a part of the Ukraine.... and a second part that we are discussing that is also not doing what Kiev says... I guess breaking up into three pieces is not falling apart... NOT.

Crimea was carefully wrestled away from Ukraine with active Russian participation and cooperative locals - planned and gamed. Likewise for the Donbass - where do supplies come from? thin air? Those regions would have been brought under Kiev control had the Russian hand not been involved at all. So no hahahahahahhahahha. It was clear in Odessa what happens when the Russian hand is missing - compliance to Kiev through force.

And the best part is Russia didn't do anything... the Crimeans escaped captivity alone... or ...

Pretty sure that's categorically false. You don't organize a referendum on independence and joining Russia without knowing exactly the outcome beforehand. There was coordination. Not to mention the little green man. Make believe propaganda that it all happened expontaneously is as much bullshit as the Kiev Maidan being an spontaneous people's coup, and not an American/German color revolution. That the people in Crimea had a natural yearning to become Russian citizens and become part of Russia again is another thing entirely.

Russia isn't poised to attack Kiev, it is poised to crush a bug like it did in Georgia... if the leader in kiev is as dumb as the one in Tiblisi then Putin can get exactly what he wants.... and excuse to kick the enemy forces back a good distance and then stabilise the situation in the occupied area and let them have a referendum to decide their own future and prove yet again how Russia respects democracy and peace and people, where the US just kills and destroys and enslaves people by coups and bribes.

War is war. In Georgia there were casualties. Ukraine is a much bigger territory that will require more resources and a more comprehensive approach. Ukraine is being groomed for a sacrificial act by those who have had time to study the Russian response in Georgia fully. Boastful propaganda about how easy and simple it will be is just more make-believe feel good fairy tales. The fact that Russia has avoided like a plague doing anything tells you all you need to know, no matter the poker face they present to their sheep, the spin and the narratives that flow from the Kremlin toilet down to the thought leaders for dissemination to plebs.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Godric wrote:Russia should warn America/NATZO/404 that it will halt all transit of gas via Ukraine immediately upon Ukrops attacking DonBas or more sanctions imposed on Russia, thus crippling the Gas market in Europe and ending of desperately needed transit fees for Ukraine economy as well as Poland, and Czech republic who also relies on Russian gas transit fees


for all America's bluster they can't replace Russian gas that arrives via Ukraine

Would not go well for Russia if they weaponized the gas pipelines, that'd honestly be a pretty stupid thing to do.

that was America and it's allies in Eastern Europe who started the weaponizing of Gas and not Russia

So, who do you believe?


Newsweek
@Newsweek
· 14 Jan
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that the U.S. has intelligence that suggests Russia is “fabricating a pretext for invasion” in Ukraine. This comes as the U.S. and Russia sustain diplomatic talks over the future of Ukraine and Russia’s aggression toward its neighbor.

Russian Embassy, UK
@RussianEmbassy
·
14 Jan
Russia government organization
Deputy FM #Ryabkov: #Russia has no plans or intentions to "attack" #Ukraine. All measures to boost Russian troops’ combat readiness are conducted on our own national territory and there are no grounds whatsoever to be afraid of any escalation scenario.

Dmitry Polyanskiy
@Dpol_un
·
14 Jan
Russia government official
I just wonder: is it the same #Russia I have the honor to represent in the #UN? If so, then we have no such instructions and no Russian politician spoke about invading #Ukraine. Only US, Ukraine and Western colleagues float this idea. Looks like a classic false-flag operation

NATO is now threatening to expand to the Ukraine and saying they're ready to let them in

Let me be clear. Russia was never invited to the Ukraine except to the Donbass. That's the one place where Russian volunteers and arms went. And for self-defence. No-one spread the war to other regions or cities.

I don't agree with the people of Kharkov, Kherson, Odessa and so on "oh let's just stay quiet and take it up the ass, and we'll sort the political problems out in time". They didn't understand what was in store for them back in 2014.

But I do fundamentally agree, that it should be their choice. They're simple, working people, who above all don't want war. Their wish should be respected, and I'm glad that it was.




However, here's the thing - no-one has invited NATO to the Ukraine either. Apart from its clown president, the oligarchical elite behind him and the Nazis used to enforce their power over territories and control any dissent.

If NATO takes the step of taking the country in, and the Kiev elite ignores the public mood that's against it - that means that the Ukraine as some sort of independent state, even a pretend one - doesn't exist. That the elites rely on the militaries of outside forces for control. At that point NATO will begin to deploy its forces to the Ukraine as well, and they will not be received with bouquets of flowers.

The situation in the Ukraine was the same during the 17th century, when a mass rebellion broke out against Poland-Lithuania and received support from Moscow.

So I say let NATO come in if they really feel they're brave enough. No need for some Russian invasion or whatever.

Godric wrote:Russia can't supply Pantsir 1s to the NAF until they are properly trained or have Russian crew those Turkish drones were taking them out in Libya to the glee of the Turkrat scum, i can't remember how the Pantsir crews did a workaround to take the Turkish drones down in Libya after the loss of several Pantsir units, Putin and Russia should not be selling weaponry of any kind to the Turks as they have close ties to Ukraine and several enemies of Russia, of all the muslim countries Iran and Syria are the most reliable

It is not a problem to send LDNR army crews to Russia for training, specially now, when they have Russian passports. It is not hard to hide a Russian between Russians. LDNR already have trained crews for Osa-AKM systems, so it is not hard for experienced Osa crew to train for Pantsir, it could be done quite quickly. LDNR is a real regular state army and no more militias from 2014 and 2015. They are building their own IADS and C³I. LDNR army have radars, at least OSCE show Kasta-2E1 radar, they have electronic warfare equipment, command posts, etc. More interesting question is Buk complex. There were some info, that last year LDNR receive Buk complex from Abhazia. LDNR and Abhazia recognize each other as independent states, so Abhazia could sell or give them Buks.

A lot of us are feeling this way about the neocon/neolib western elites. Sold off to "free trade" style globalism. Many of us feel like America is dead and it is simply the north American economic zone ran by trans nationalists with visas in other countries, with their money and ideas in other countries, and their foreign and domestic policy formed by NGOs and think tanks in other countries.

Maybe America needs some good old "democratic values" spread. But no the only hard line nationalists America supports are those in nations our elites deem as enemies. It is a sorry state of affairs. I remember when Biden became president our MSM said Biden was not just president of America but of the "free world". I guess Americs will support neonazis overseas while suppressing patriot groups here in America, calling them "traitors". My question is this. How can these people be traitors to a globalist economic zone?

Sorry for off topic but damn its infuriating.

The number was actually inflated in a matter of seconds, by adding and substracting a dot on multiple back to back edits (..).

You're obviously such a dimwit you picked on it as a talking point instead of thinking whether it was a trap by design, specially with such an inflated number.  

Like wrestling a candy from a kid... the embarrassment is now complete. You even went to photoshop for the highlight. My god...

flamming_python wrote:NATO is now threatening to expand to the Ukraine and saying they're ready to let them in

Let me be clear. Russia was never invited to the Ukraine except to the Donbass. That's the one place where Russian volunteers and arms went. And for self-defence. No-one spread the war to other regions or cities.

I don't agree with the people of Kharkov, Kherson, Odessa and so on "oh let's just stay quiet and take it up the ass, and we'll sort the political problems out in time". They didn't understand what was in store for them back in 2014.

But I do fundamentally agree, that it should be their choice. They're simple, working people, who above all don't want war. Their wish should be respected, and I'm glad that it was.




However, here's the thing - no-one has invited NATO to the Ukraine either. Apart from its clown president, the oligarchical elite behind him and the Nazis used to enforce their power over territories and control any dissent.

If NATO takes the step of taking the country in, and the Kiev elite ignores the public mood that's against it - that means that the Ukraine as some sort of independent state, even a pretend one - doesn't exist. That the elites rely on the militaries of outside forces for control. At that point NATO will begin to deploy its forces to the Ukraine as well, and they will not be received with bouquets of flowers.

The situation in the Ukraine was the same during the 17th century, when a mass rebellion broke out against Poland-Lithuania and received support from Moscow.

So I say let NATO come in if they really feel they're brave enough. No need for some Russian invasion or whatever.

They say but let's be clear, there is already a lot of discontent among nato states and many to most are not interested in Ukraine joining NATO. US ultimately doesn't either on grounds that they know they can neither defend or enforce Ukraine. And if they did do something that forced Russia to react in a manner that was aggressive, US would retreat, same with UK (they both more or less said this outright). Maybe cannon fodder from worthless stages like Germany, France, Denmark etc would stay to die but otherwise NATO would be destroyed by internal strife after the conflict and it would show that the organization was one big bluff.

They aren't willing to risk it. Talk of wanting Ukraine in NATO would be to try and use it as leverage against Russia, and also try and earn extra revenue with sales of weapons.

If it was this simple, they would have added them in already, back when Russia allowed DNR/LNR recieve Russian citizenship.

But rest is correct, NATO really has no idea what they are getting involved in.

flamming_python wrote:NATO is now threatening to expand to the Ukraine and saying they're ready to let them in

Let me be clear. Russia was never invited to the Ukraine except to the Donbass. That's the one place where Russian volunteers and arms went. And for self-defence. No-one spread the war to other regions or cities.

I don't agree with the people of Kharkov, Kherson, Odessa and so on "oh let's just stay quiet and take it up the ass, and we'll sort the political problems out in time". They didn't understand what was in store for them back in 2014.

But I do fundamentally agree, that it should be their choice. They're simple, working people, who above all don't want war. Their wish should be respected, and I'm glad that it was.




However, here's the thing - no-one has invited NATO to the Ukraine either. Apart from its clown president, the oligarchical elite behind him and the Nazis used to enforce their power over territories and control any dissent.

If NATO takes the step of taking the country in, and the Kiev elite ignores the public mood that's against it - that means that the Ukraine as some sort of independent state, even a pretend one - doesn't exist. That the elites rely on the militaries of outside forces for control. At that point NATO will begin to deploy its forces to the Ukraine as well, and they will not be received with bouquets of flowers.

The situation in the Ukraine was the same during the 17th century, when a mass rebellion broke out against Poland-Lithuania and received support from Moscow.

So I say let NATO come in if they really feel they're brave enough. No need for some Russian invasion or whatever.

The problem with that logic is, the majority of Ukraine wants to join NATO the ones who don't are the small minority you are being dishonest by suggesting the masses of Ukraine don't, this public mood you speak of only exists in the heavy russian populated areas.

So I have no idea why you are being disingenuous by trying to state the Ukrainian people are against it, the West and Central areas of Ukraine and some of the eastern sections not that close to the Russian border are anti-russian, to be clear they hate the russians.

If Russia doesn't want Ukraine in NATO there is only one way to prevent that, invasion. At this stage sooner or later Ukraine is getting into NATO.

The question is will russia seize the entire country or only the areas on the east side of the river, I get Putin doesn't WANT to do this but he is aware its going to come down to that.

Godric wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Godric wrote:Russia should warn America/NATZO/404 that it will halt all transit of gas via Ukraine immediately upon Ukrops attacking DonBas or more sanctions imposed on Russia, thus crippling the Gas market in Europe and ending of desperately needed transit fees for Ukraine economy as well as Poland, and Czech republic who also relies on Russian gas transit fees


for all America's bluster they can't replace Russian gas that arrives via Ukraine

Would not go well for Russia if they weaponized the gas pipelines, that'd honestly be a pretty stupid thing to do.

that was America and it's allies in Eastern Europe who started the weaponizing of Gas and not Russia

We aren't talking about that, You suggested they weaponize the gas and I stated for them that would be a stupid idea.