Russian special military operation in Ukraine #10

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

What a real Russian victory looks like, the Ukraine has forfeited its right to exist with their current borders.

It isn't mumbo jumbo when they want to keep what exists and limit casualties. In case of a war with NATO that is a different matter.

You people need to stop seeing this as black and white. Life isn't like that.

sepheronx wrote:It isn't mumbo jumbo when they want to keep what exists and limit casualties.  In case of a war with NATO that is a different matter.

You people need to stop seeing this as black and white.  Life isn't like that.

you are back

Well that's the thing, first I doubt there are 190,000 Russians in Ukraine

More like 50,000 to 60,000,

And it looks like a giant polygon

Not for a quick war, but in the anticipation of a NATO war, they got a smaller proxy war

The troops are recycled often, with 50,000 its easy to rotate and recycle

I doubt the leadership intends to build any administrative structure in Ukraine

They sought to keep NATO out, and it worked, although i think it was a surprise to Shoigu and Gerasimov as well as Putin. They also probably thought NATO would intervene as many analysts did in 2014

But this was the biggest shock of all

How NATO stayed put to the point our military fired at them with cruise missiles

Many things were not expected

We assumed the Americans and Polaks would grab Lvov and Galicia, but they did not, there was 0 political will to move in

So Russia perceived some intel that NATO would move in, and to their surprise NATO stayed put

To the point the US president reiterates every week that they won't go into Ukraine

So we anticipated that fight, instead we got a proxy war , and the Russian military adapted

And now it's like sever, vostok, zapad, tsentr, in Ukraine

The military with some BTGs moves to and fro

Now how to make this palpable to the public without occupying or digesting Ukraine?

Well denazification and demilitarization are vague open ended terms that can last a very long time

10 to 15 years is the horizon

Syria is 8 years now

Russia has learned to fight this kind of war , not Afghan style but Syrian style

The VSU will be destroyed, but like jabhat al nusra or isis the VKS and army and navy are in Syria exercising for 8 years now

Idlib for example remains to this day, 8 years later

In the same light, Donbass , and other Ukrainian regions can stay in such a situation 10+ years

Russia can move to Kiev like it did in Raqqah maybe in 2 or 3 years

But it will do this shit, rotate , rotate, rotate, and fight this at snails pace ,

It looks like a marathon, not a sprint

George1 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:It isn't mumbo jumbo when they want to keep what exists and limit casualties.  In case of a war with NATO that is a different matter.

You people need to stop seeing this as black and white.  Life isn't like that.

you are back

I would have missed severely my favorite Greek.

How are you and how is Greece these days? I wish to travel one day so we can at least catch a beer.

Arkanghelsk wrote:The VSU will be destroyed, but like jabhat al nusra or isis the VKS and army and navy are in Syria exercising for 8 years now

Idlib for example remains to this day, 8 years later

In the same light, Donbass , and other Ukrainian regions can stay in such a situation 10+ years

Russia can move to Kiev like it did in Raqqah maybe in 2 or 3 years

But it will do this shit, rotate , rotate, rotate, and fight this at snails pace ,

It looks like a marathon, not a sprint

This may very well be the case friend and would make sense. You need time and patience to clear out the scum. The west has already done what it can to harm Russia beyond starting a war and if that were to happen, nothing good will come out for them.

So now is the moment that Russia can take its time, and do things right. They have the resources and the manpower, Ukraine does not, and neither does NATO.

Well, I hope your positivism is a long-term one. I am scared to see Strelkov's most pessimistic predictions coming true by the letter. Not defeatism, just hate to see this become a long conflict.

I personally don't see a conflict with NATO, not after this. It's either nuclear war or no war.

Regular wrote:Well, I hope your positivism is a long-term one. I am scared to see Strelkov's most pessimistic predictions coming true by the letter. Not defeatism, just hate to see this become a long conflict.

I personally don't see a conflict with NATO, not after this. It's either nuclear war or no war.

Strelkov hasn't been right since he got removed from Novorussia. He has had a bitter and angry viewpoint and I do not blame him. His method may have worked but it would have also resulted in a lot of problems too for Russia. It wasn't like Russia didn't want to resolve this issue earlier, they just were not in the position to.

Regardless, it will take time. If Strelkov wants to help, he can go back and assist. But I do not see him doing it which leads me to believe he rather do things politically instead. It is up to him.

Regular wrote:Well, I hope your positivism is a long-term one. I am scared to see Strelkov's most pessimistic predictions coming true by the letter. Not defeatism, just hate to see this become a long conflict.

I personally don't see a conflict with NATO, not after this. It's either nuclear war or no war.

Well we all expected a war with NATO, no fly zone was very close to being imposed

S400 was fired with kinzhal, we spooked them

But I expected F35 over Kaliningrad, B52s , and the MOD did too

We were prepared to run a vostok 18 or zapad type operation, but we waited for NATO,  they never came

And we had to switch to insurgency warfare

Strelkov wanted to see a fast victory like myself

But we saw what happened, and it dragged on, then the realization dawned that NATO wasn't coming

We expected to engage the 1st armored brigade from Poland, and well as the polish mechanized brigades

The war was supposed to be from baltic sea to Crimea, and the military settled in for a lightning war

When it became apparent that NATO blinked, all that momentum had to be conserved

If we prematurely blew our load like gulf War, we would be like the US

Capable to fight proxy wars, but unable to mount an intervention during a time of crisis

Just like that USA lost Ukraine, while Russia will stay in Ukraine for a long time

The Ukrainians aren't a factor to the leadership,  they are like Syrians. I apologize to syrian viewers here, I don't mean to sound cynical,

The leadership will help Ukrainians like we help Syrians, as much as we can without breaking the bank

We are involved with military, but with no real strings attached

It is like surkovs writings, a hybrid war with the most lucid after shocks

The Ukrainian landscape was transformed , and everyone on this planet had their consciousness warped by this conflict

Normalized

Arkanghelsk wrote:The VSU will be destroyed, but like jabhat al nusra or isis the VKS and army and navy are in Syria exercising for 8 years now

Idlib for example remains to this day, 8 years later

In the same light, Donbass , and other Ukrainian regions can stay in such a situation 10+ years

Russia can move to Kiev like it did in Raqqah maybe in 2 or 3 years

But it will do this shit, rotate , rotate, rotate, and fight this at snails pace ,

It looks like a marathon, not a sprint

VSU will be destroyed by letting VSU leave using humanitarian corridors while they are mobilizing? During multiple mil briefings, it is stated, that only troops who were engaged were threatening DNR/LNR, shelling Russian positions and etc. The rear of Ukraine is fairly safe. Hence why only a few barracks got flattened. Hence why due to Good Faith military actions stopped during the talks. (Ukrainians still continued theirs)

snails pace

Makes no sense, Russian army is not some pidar IDF force that fights at snail pace against rocks and molotovs and odd rpg-2.

Well, we will just have to see. I just hope after consolidation of forces from North military will have a reign over the things. Bucha changes everything.

Well we all expected a war with NATO, no fly zone was very close to being imposed

Let's not overestimate NATO Also, F-35 over Kaliningrad? Defection maybe...

Realistically NATO has no way to threaten Russia. Their cohession would fall apart as soon as they would start moving east. Not to mention Germans would start getting WW2 flashbacks, even now they are paying Russia. What could treaten Kaliningrad? 5 Brit tanks, 2 Baltic IFVs, 15 Polish Twardy tanks and Romanian with Dacia?

There was no sky over our village. That’s why we went to the city to watch the moon and birds, on the other side of the river. The people in the city were not thrilled to have us, but they did not try to stop us. On one of the hills, where the brick church stood, they even built an observation platform. Since for some reason they considered us drinkers, in addition to benches and a pay telescope, they built a small tavern by the observation deck, and a police post.

I could understand the city people. They had suffered greatly from the rage and envy of newcomers. And though it was insulting that they considered us - their closest neighbors, almost city people ourselves - intruders, still, we could understand them. And after all, they understood us. They didn’t drive us away. No matter what they wrote on their websites, they didn’t drive us away.

Everyone understood, if they were honest, that it was not our fault we were left with no sky. On the contrary, it was a great honor for us, in a way. The marshals of the four coalitions chose our sky for their decisive battle because the sky over our village was the best in the world: calm and cloudless. The sun flowed through our sky like a wide, peaceful river. I remember them well, the sun and the sky. The marshals found this place ideal for the final battle. It’s not surprising. This was when all armies were airborne, and here there were no clouds, no turbulence. It was perfect.

This was the first non-linear war. In the primitive wars of the nineteenth, twentieth, and other middle centuries, the fight was usually between two sides: two nations or two temporary alliances. But now, four coalitions collided, and it wasn’t two against two, or three against one. It was all against all.

And what coalitions they were! Not like the earlier ones. It was a rare state that entered the coalition intact. What happened was some provinces took one side, some took the other, and some individual city, or generation, or sex, or professional society of the same state - took a third side. And then they could switch places, cross into any camp you like, sometimes during battle.

The goals of those in conflict were quite varied. Each had his own, so to speak: the seizing of disputed pieces of territory; the forced establishment of a new religion; higher ratings or rates; the testing of new military rays and airships; the final ban on separating people into male and female, since sexual differentiation undermines the unity of the nation; and so forth.

The simple-hearted commanders of the past strove for victory. Now they did not act so stupidly. That is, some, of course, still clung to the old habits and tried to exhume from the archives old slogans of the type: victory will be ours. It worked in some places, but basically, war was now understood as a process, more exactly, part of a process, its acute phase, but maybe not the most important.

Some peoples joined the war specifically to be defeated. They were inspired by the flowering of Germany and France after being routed in the second World War. It turned out that to achieve such a defeat was no simpler than achieving victory. Determination, sacrifice, and the extraordinary exertion of all forces were required, and, in addition, flexibility, cold-bloodedness, and the ability to profitably administer one’s own cowardice and dullness.

But all of this was realized and analyzed later by historians and economists. Then, it was just war, World War V, and rather horrifying. I was six. We were all six or younger, all who today enter the Society, who are thirty years old now. We remember how, from the four corners of our sky, the four great armadas swooped down. These were not roaring, screeching and howling airborne apparatus of the old kind, as we had become used to seeing in the video-archives. For the first time, the newest, absolutely silent technology was employed, with some kind of invisible systems of complete noise reduction.

Hundreds of thousands of airplanes, helicopters, and rockets destroyed each other throughout a day in the silence of the tomb. Even falling, they were silent. Sometimes dying pilots screamed out, but rarely, because almost all of the machines were pilotless.

At that time, automatic machinery was being hurriedly brought into general use, and not only in the field of transportation. They introduced hotels without staff, stores without sales people, homes without masters, financial and industrial firms without directors. Even a couple of “pilotless” governments were organized as a result of democratic revolutions, so airplanes were nothing to speak of.

As a result, there was no one to scream while crashing onto roofs, bridges and monuments. The only sound was the cracking and crackling of our homes as they were destroyed beneath the rain of falling debris. And it wasn’t loud. The systems of sound reduction were effective across almost the complete depth of the battlefield.

Our parents tried to shelter us in the city. Above the city, the sky was clear, but the city people closed the city. Our parents cried for help from our side of the river. They begged them to at least take the children, at least those younger than ten, or seven, or three. Or younger than one year old. Or only the girls. And so forth. The city people did not open the city, and we children could understand them. We understood our parents, too, of course, including my own.

My father said: they won’t let us in. We have to dig down. We burrowed into the riverbank sand, in a minute’s time, it seemed. Everyone did, even the fattest and oldest of us. People don’t know themselves well. It might seem strange, but we are, in fact, much more nimble and intelligent than worms. One detail: it was winter. Freezing. The sand was hard.

Mama and Papa burrowed in together with me. They were warm and soft. Papa, a brave and clever man, brought some of my favorite candy from the house with him, a full pocket. And Mama bought my handheld game player. With it, I was happy and not bored in our burrow, so my time passed splendidly. The tail of an airplane fell on us, towards evening.

The fighter aircraft of the Northern Coalition were super-light, made of almost weightless materials. Even if an entire one of these fighters fell on us, the whole airplane, it would not have caused us serious harm. And Papa had dug us in pretty deep.

The place where we were hidden attracted the tail of another airplane. Unfortunately, it was an attack aircraft of the Southeastern League, an older plane, relatively silent, but heavy. Our burrow was deep, but not as deep as the tail of the attack fighter was heavy. The sand above us was frozen solid, but all the same, it was sand, not concrete, not steel, not the shawl of Our Lady: sand. And sand is not steel. I learned this well then, once and for all. And to this day, wake me up in the middle of the night and ask me: Is sand steel or not? I will answer: No! On the run, not pausing for a minute to think, not doubting. No.

I lay between Mama and Papa and didn’t hear the blow. It’s possible that Papa made some funny quacking sound when the excessive weight crushed him, or he swore coarsely. One time he had yelled out something of the sort in front of me and frightened me.

It’s possible that my mother also let out some kind of sound, but not necessarily. I’m not sure she even had time for a guilty smile, like the one she always had when something unpleasant happened to Papa or me. I hope it wasn’t painful.

They were killed. I wasn’t. Death wound round their bodies but didn’t reach mine. My brain was just touched by its black and stifling presence. Something boiled out of my brain and evaporated: the third dimension, height.

When they dug me out in the morning, chilled to the bone because my parents had quickly grown cold and become like the sand, I saw a two-dimensional world, endless in length and width, but without height. Without sky. Where is it, I asked? It’s right there, they answered. I don’t see it, don’t see it! I became frightened.

They gave me treatment, but didn’t cure me. This kind of contusion, severe, can’t be cured. The tail of the attack fighter crushed my consciousness into a pancake. It became flat and simple. What do I see in place of the sky above our village? Nothing. What does it look like? What does it resemble? It looks like nothing, resembles nothing. It’s not that this is incommunicable, inexpressible. There’s nothing of that. There’s just nothing.

After the war there were about fifty other cripples like me. All of us, the two-dimensionals, turned out to be the same age. Why? No one knew. The city scientists dug around in our consciousness for a while. They wrote a few treatises. They dragged us around to symposiums and talk-shows. Several foundations were organized on our behalf. Laughing at us was forbidden by a special law. They built an observation platform for us and a charitable institution. Then we went out of fashion and they forgot all about us.

If it was only that we didn’t see the sky above our village, that would be nothing, but our very thoughts lost the concept of height. We became two-dimensional. We understood only “yes” and “no,” only “black” and “white.” There was no ambiguity, no half-tones, no saving graces. We did not know how to lie.

We understood everything literally, and that meant we were absolutely unsuited for life, helpless. We required constant care, but they abandoned us. They wouldn’t let us work. They wouldn’t pay us a disability pension. Many of us deteriorated, fell and perished. The rest of us organized ourselves to stay afloat, to save ourselves together or perish together.

We founded the Society and prepared a revolt of the simple, two-dimensionals against the complex and sly, against those who do not answer “yes” or “no,” who do not say “white” or “black,” who know some third word, many, many third words, empty, deceptive, confusing the way, obscuring the truth. In these shadows and spider webs, in these false complexities, hide and multiply all the villainies of the world. They are the House of Satan. That’s where they make bombs and money, saying: “Here’s money for the good of the honest; here are bombs for the defense of love.”

We will come tomorrow. We will conquer or perish. There is no third way.

we are living already in the time of no sky,

The world consciousness was flattened by this info war

The Kremlin is testing out this concept, noone knows what the **** they are doing

But they know it themselves

What is victory or defeat? Well it turns out you can be nuked and become the 3rd largest economy in the world

Or divided in two, reunited, and manage an economic union

Sometimes defeat can be as simple as victory

And yes for many there is no sky...

There is no perception of depth or height, only length and width

Coalitions fight , the US fights Europe, Russia fights The US, China fights the US , but not Europe

Russia trades with Europe but fights Ukraine

It is the war of many coalitions, and there is no victory, the war itself is a process

Sides switch intermittently

Arkanghelsk wrote:The VSU will be destroyed, but like jabhat al nusra or isis the VKS and army and navy are in Syria exercising for 8 years now

Idlib for example remains to this day, 8 years later

In the same light, Donbass , and other Ukrainian regions can stay in such a situation 10+ years

Russia can move to Kiev like it did in Raqqah maybe in 2 or 3 years

But it will do this shit, rotate , rotate, rotate, and fight this at snails pace ,

It looks like a marathon, not a sprint

I disagree. Russia's strategy has been a quick war from the beginning. Because whose isn't?

The incursion around Kiev and move into Kharkov, then advance towards Krivoy Rog
Either scare Kiev into a new agreement, or destabilise the elites, force defection of military, oligarchs, cities, etc..

It all failed. Maximum it got was Kherson region and part of Zaporozhie region, as well as some settlements in the Kharkov region.

However Russia has not fundamentally given up on ending this war ASAP. Some war of attrition or Syria decade-long shitfest is not on the cards - it would mean a complete failure of Russia anything in Europe and against Washington/London

Russia missed it's chance to essentially win the conflict in a month and have some of the Ukrainian army do it's fighting for it.

But it can still achieve victory over another 2-3 months.
What's being played for now is a collapse in Ukrainian morale
Hence the insistence on a costly assault on Mariupol, and the hopes of provoking a surrender of the remaining defenders.

But moreover the Donbass grouping, which is the main prize. If Russia can successfully surround them, cut off new supplies, then tighten the cauldron while progressively heating it up with artillery - the hope is that it can provoke a mass-surrender of tens of thousands.
And it has to do that without suffering too many casualties itself, else that can again convince Ukrainian troops that Russia is weak.
At that point, it can provoke the same sort of surrender in Nikolayev and Odessa. The dominoes would promptly fall. At least, that seems to be the calculation

Rosgvardiya medic is being awarded a medal for his actions saving injured comrades

Very interesting example behind him. Am I seeing era blocks on the bonnet?

I think the "calculation" is varied and there are many

For the Kremlin, it's to keep NATO out and keep tense hostility vis a vis the US, but trade with Europe and force them into rubles

For the military it's to manage an Insurgency and the testing of hypersonic weapons, concepts and tactics, and managing the polygon of Ukraine in a coat effective way

For the economists, it is to mitigate the transition from globalization to multipolarity and the takeover of the domestic market from exiting corporations

The victories are multi layered, for some there is no victory at all, for others some ulterior motive or goal is achieved

Ratings are lifted to astronomic heights

Many things go on here, and yes the way this goes can be sold/spun anyway you want

It is in fact nonlinear and there is no black or white in the words of surkov who engineered this whole thing anyway

For some 100,000 Russians died, for others 2000 died, for some there was a genocide in bucha, for others it was a staged movie

For some Russia wins, for others Russia loses

In the end, it doesn't really matter in the terms of nonlinearity

Ask Japan or Germany about winning or losing

It's not entirely military-related, but it paints the picture of a divide that exists and the way some people behave.

Ukrainian military man is mocking an old woman who thinks they are Russian soldiers and asks the couple to thank Putin and the Russian army for food etc.

When they say take the Soviet flag and step on it they say - Slava Ukraini and the woman refuses the food.



I will refrain from further comments.

Russia hoped for a quick capitulation of the orc army but 100% planned for a longer engagement. Once the orc cauldron in the donbass is annihilated, they'll methodically clean up the rest of the Ukraine, one region at a time, until thorough demilitarization and denazification is achieved. This is an existential problem that isn't going to be resolved in a few weeks like the clueless optimists hope for, but Russia has had 8 years of practice in Syria for this type of war. 

I predict that at some point in the near future, after the Donbass operation, Ukrainian and foreign volunteer groups will be formed to fight alongside Russian forces against the Neonazi battalions in central and western Ukraine as there's still a lot of people that want their pound of flesh from those guys. It would also allow Russia to drawdown their own forces substantially and provide air coverage for these groups, just like they do in Syria.

JohninMK wrote:Interesting take on what next but bear in mind that it is VT

The UK and allies also promised to supply more heavy weapons, long-range artillery, ammunition and air defence systems. Arms were sent to Ukraine by Germany, Sweden, Denmark and other countries.

Amid this backdrop, European Commission and the German leadership has announced an extension of anti-Russian sanctions. The decision was made following reports from Kiev about an alleged massacre in the town of Bucha. Any international investigation of the events in the Kiev region is yet to be launched.

Sanctions are expected to be imposed in the following areas:

   A ban on imports of coal from Russia.
   A ban on exports to Russia of semiconductors, computers, technology for LNG gas, and other electrical and transport equipment.
   Bans on importing wood, cement, rubber and chemicals from Russia
   Russian vessels and trucks would be prevented from accessing the EU with
   A ban on Russian companies participating in public procurement in EU member states.
   A ban on all transactions with VTB and three other Russian banks which have already been excluded from the SWIFT system

Formally, the sanctions are aimed at reducing trade between the EU and Russia.

However, an analysis of the substance of the sanctions indicates that they are not aimed at Russia but rather at the people of the European Union. A ban on coal imports, combined with a shrinking market for machinery, equipment and high-tech goods, will inevitably lead to a reduction in production in EU countries and, consequently, to jobs cut, along with a rise of inflation.

These consequences are inevitable even if Russia does not impose retaliatory sanctions.

If the sanctions war continues to unfold at this rate, it will have catastrophic consequences for EU citizens, up to food shortages. Living standards and disposable income in the EU have already fallen significantly since the Corona crisis broke out.

A question arises, why the European bureaucracy continues actions that will predictably worsen the economic and social situation in the region in the very near future. It seems that the aim is to put EU populations in a desperate situation, where the only way out is an aggressive war for Russian resources, i.e. another “Crusade to the East “. How a big war will be justified publicly is already evident from the current anti-Russian hysteria, fuelled in every possible way by the Brussels bureaucracy and the MSM.

All the EU’s problems will be blamed on Russians, who have inadvertently been given such rich territory and do not share European liberal values. The U.S. and the British Commonwealth will watch with enthusiasm for the great European butchery, which is, in all likelihood, inevitable.

https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/04/06/672821/

Poland has been bitching at Germany about banning Russian gas, Ursula is German, Poland gets 45% of its energy from coal. So who do you really think the coal ban is aimed at ? Germany produces most of its coal and can increase this. Poland is FUCKED. Maybe the stupid Poles will STFU now and understand their place. Their coal increased in price by 6.5% today alone. Its pretty clear to me the UK is trying to use this crisis to break up the EU.

Broski wrote:Russia hoped for a quick capitulation of the orc army but 100% planned for a longer engagement. Once the orc cauldron in the donbass is annihilated, they'll methodically clean up the rest of the Ukraine, one region at a time, until thorough demilitarization and denazification is achieved. This is an existential problem that isn't going to be resolved in a few weeks like the clueless optimists hope for, but Russia has had 8 years of practice in Syria for this type of war. 

I predict that at some point in the near future, after the Donbass operation, Ukrainian and foreign volunteer groups will be formed to fight alongside Russian forces against the Neonazi battalions in central and western Ukraine as there's still a lot of people that want their pound of flesh from those guys. It would also allow Russia to drawdown their own forces substantially and provide air coverage for these groups, just like they do in Syria.

I think once about half the Ukraine military is wiped out in the Donbass things will unwind quite quickly. Ukraine supply chains and stockpiles have been wiped out. Large scale resupply is not possible. So the UAF is dying on the vine as we speak.

Ukraine won't die so easy
look at hayat tahrir al sham

It operates with only turkish and US support

Ukraine in the same vein operates this way

Not killing zelensky now makes sense, as much as not liquidating HTS from idlib , Ukraine survived 8 years with this government, and idlib also survived 8 years under terrorist rule

Certain resources are allocated, goals must be achieved with those resources and opportunism

In this case Russia did not cross the euphrates for 4 or 5 years

The dnieper also could be this way,

Russia will do what's possible with resources allocated and the leadership will force the military to make due with what it perceives as the goal

Mariupol is the example of this, a battle that rages daily, but hasn't ended yet

Just like Aleppo which took a lot of time to liberate

And the VSU which fights in the donetsk pocket

Russia will take a methodical process which will go back and forth

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Agreed. #2 is probably the best possible outcome based on current events, but we might get stuck with #3.

Also in the battle of Aleppo, we know there were around 30,000 assad forces, vs 20,000 terrorists

So that's why I believe Russia has around 60,000 men in all Ukraine

Mariupol probably has about 10,000 or 15000 Russians and now 3000 VSU forces

zorobabel wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Agreed. #2 is probably the best possible outcome based on current events, but we might get stuck with #3.

Nothing is stuck in place forever





Russia will take Kiev, but Palmyra came before Qamishli

The thing is the US did not intervene in Syria until ISIS was rebuffed from the west Bank of the euphrates

The US and NATO could enter Ukraine once Russian operations in the east Bank of the Dnieper solidify

Just like they did in AL Tanf

But the MOD did learn , and that's why Belarus remains there to block US and Poland, we won't let them do a Jordanian intervention in Ukraine like they did at al tanf

Or a sort of Euphrates Shield op

Arkanghelsk wrote:

zorobabel wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:

3 4 5 6 are disasters

Agreed. #2 is probably the best possible outcome based on current events, but we might get stuck with #3.

Nothing is stuck in place forever





Russia will take Kiev, but Palmyra came before Qamishli

I hope so. Borders in Syria seem to have been stuck for a couple of years now.