No! It's between Russia and USA directly. So most likely a peace deal will be signed soon and the retreat of the right bank was part of some kind of precondition and goodwill. The basis of the deal is the Sullivan formula.
Or the US has taken Russia up on its promise to talk... they have talks before that led no where... if Russia is planning an attack in the near future it would give that away by refusing talks. If Putin is not going to the G20 and not even sending a video message like Zelensky then I don't think he is going to quietly negotiate peace with the US.
Where they are at now it is the US that is now desperate for peace because it is becoming obvious money going to Kiev is money lost that is not coming back... and it wil cost them the next election if it is still going by then.
Zelensky spoke out in favor of peace today after having vehemently opposed something like that days earlier.
His barking means nothing... he barks when he is ordered to bark and if he barks out of turn he goes back into his cage with no supper.
If Russia agreed to the deal, it would be a surrender. Ukraine would strengthen its position, officially switch to NATO standards, and military operations in the future will become many times more difficult....and by the way Russia will lose the entire ukranian population, they will be more hostile for centuries than the Poles ever were.
And if Russia also agrees to withdraw from Kaliningrad and the Kurile Islands it would also be a surrender, but there is no indication of that either.
The majority of the people of he Kerson region voted to join the Russian federation which the Russian federation accepted... Putin has already stated in regard to the Kurile islands that Russia will not give up Russian territory... so how could he give up Russian territory in this negotiation?
It can also be a diversion to reassure Ukraine and her masters in the US.
They said they were open to talks and they are. They didn't say they were desperate for an end to this conflict and will give up everything and anything for peace... the job isn't done yet and if it ends any time soon it is just going to be a problem further down the track. Better to sort it out now... properly.
Yeah I changed it before you replied, but the rumours of a looming peacedeal with the Kherson withdrawal being part of that was the first thing that instantly popped up in my mind as well.
Because you are a pessimist? And rumours from the west are not rumours... they are western propaganda... do you enjoy being Zelenskys tool?
Zelensky parades around Kherson.
Hahaha... don't remember the Russians doing such things, the orcs are only making themselves look bad.
I was too harsh with my statement. A deal would make sense...I think it's very likely (85 %).
Hahaha it would make sense if Russia was losing, but they are only losing in your head... internationally this is damaging the west more than it is damaging Russia or her allies and partners. This is the west over reacting and destroying its own power strings... Russian grain was exported by western ships through western ports and insured by western insurance companies... thanks to this conflict that has stopped but the grain deal will force them to back down and move some Russian grain and some Russian fertiliser if they want any for themselves (and they do)... but this situation can be used to boost production and create the need for pro Russian insurance companies and Russian shipping companies to be created... the ships could be made in China... no need for them to be Russian made, the Russian energy companies can use gas and oil sales to China to pay for them and then lease them to Russian export companies and make a steady income from their use... everybody wins... except the west...
Russia has currently lost a little over $300 billion in wealth in the west, even if they paid a reparation under the Sullivan formula of $50 billion, you would get back $250 billion and the oligarchs' assets would be released again.
Or they could continue the conflict and if the west does not release the under 300 billion that was frozen then Russia can seize the trillions of dollars of assets the west has in Russia and also in the Ukraine.... all that farmland own by massive western multinationals could be divided up and given to Ukrainian soldiers who fought the nazis to save the country from US occupation... New laws stating that Ukrainian and Russian land on former Ukrainian territory can only be owned by Russian citizens that do not have dual citizenship.
With sanctions lifted or relaxed, assets recovered and territorial gains, it's even a small win for Russia. And we know Putin acts absolutely rationally and this is very rational.
Not if you have the winning hand it isn't rational to fold.
Whether the conflict will be resolved in the long term is questionable, maybe it's just a kind of Minsk 3, a frozen conflict. If I were Putin, I'd sign the deal, get the money back, and pop it back on the battlefield in 2024!
Hahahaha... so the doomsayers should now pile on to you for being the pussy they claim Putin is being for not going all Stalin on the Orcs... should be interesting.
Already a dislike from Limb.
Hitler was in Smolensk in 1943 so what?
And seeing as how his best friend wife reacts to being told she is his best friend I don't think she will be taking that suicide tablet in the bunker with him as the Russian tanks approach the city...
Even if Russia gets that $300 billion back - so what? What it can it do with, if the sanctions all remain in place?
They will free Russian frozen money the same way they freed Iranian money... it is unfrozen but you can only buy US and western stuff with it...
The irony is that even now with western companies leaving the Russian market there are far more western assets in Russia worth rather more than 300 billion that they could seize in response so even if they do it Russia will be fine... they might even make on the deal.
Seizing certain western assets and wiping respect for copyright laws regarding western products and IP would make things much easier for them looking forward to their future without the west...
You want Kherson? Good, walk around Z man, if you don't accept this deal you aren't ever walking here again. You scrap this deal, well keep in mind we took 1/3 of your country with 100,000. We will soon have 400,000. Thats enough to take Odessa, everything east of the Dniepr, and make your life hell. Ball is in your court. I admit, I could be way off but I think that is where we are at regarding this war.
The point is that Z is an idiot and the act of actually taking Odessa or Kiev would likely result in the destruction of all the forces he sends to stop the Russians, so the act of attacking these areas would expose more orcs to artillery and air power and drones and actually speed up Kievs demise... but not till the conditions are suitable...
Nor a 'frozen conflict' over the Donbass, Crimea and other lands. It's either accepted they are not part of the Ukraine, or it's assumed that the Ukraine will rearm again just like they did after Minsk-2; and so the war will go on as nobody is stupid enough for fall for that.
Poroshenko already admitted that the Minsk agreements were a con to build up their forces for this conflict that was always going to happen... further agreements only make sense if it is the unconditional surrender of Kiev and they are not at that point yet, so talk but don't sign anything... Putin knows...
The west smells weakness. I ask: what is the actual russian red line for declaring war?
They do, but they also see thinking about problems and coming up with solutions that don't bite you in the arse as being a weakness... hense they are currently paying what they are paying for energy and they think Putin is weak and a fool... and at the same time are so desperate for him to step down and let someone else take over... anyone else... please pretty please...
Why is russia afraid of destroying global hawks or US satellites? Thats a sign of weakness.
Destroying satellites is a bit extreme... and watching directly how they use drones and what their capabilities are has probably been rather invaluable... plus learning to operate while being monitored is important... camouflage discipline is important too...
Why haven't they shot down US aircraft and drones and satellites over Syria too?
PEOPLE... entire conversations are being reposted against the rules... do I have to start giving people bans?
The power infrastructure was good, but theres still bridges on the dniepr. Ukraine is still mobile and sendinf reserves.
I know deception is valuable in a conflict, but the russian armed forces haven't decieved at all. Fool me once, fool me twice, etc
As the Russians show, bridges can be repaired, so why take them down a month before you want them to not be able to use them and have no alternative built nearby?
Whether propaganda or not but if Russia wants to succeed, they need to win the hearts and minds of the people to gain their support. If not, you will just end up with local resistance.
Rescue the friendly civilians first and they can help deal with the enemies within... for the last 8 years they saw these bastards purge the pro russians from power and then from the population.... soon it will be their turn to return the favour.
Simple reason...if they don't cheer they will die! You are not dealing with normal people and soldiers here... these are Nazis and wild animals!
Or tied to a pole and then quietly disposed of later out of the cameras view.
And I don't know how many people were evacuated or self-evacuated from Kherson to Russian territories over the past months
The Russians claim 115K... which they said was everyone who wanted to go.
Still waiting for that offensice.
Hope moscow doesn't fall for the "we are willing to negotiate" delay tactic from washington again.
Negotiations are a good time filler while waiting for the cold to arrive... the US and Russia talking over prisoner swaps sounds more realistic than Putin surrendering unconditionally to Kiev.
Zelensky has been talking peace because the US told him to talk peace in public.
It has nothing to do with him actually wanting peace, it is all about making foreign donors think their might be an end to this war so donations wont be an endless bottomless money sink that corruption often is.
Maybe, just maybe, you can entertain a thought that some people here are very unhappy with the way Russia is handling this whole thing.
Yeah, that would be OK if it didn't come with accusations that anyone who disagrees with them are on drugs and that Putin and the Russian military must be incompetent or guilty of treason because you don't understand what is happening right now when Kiev states something on its propaganda Telegram channels.
Statements that turn out to be false or incomplete without the actual explanation that reveals them to be sensible and logical moves in the situation.
Making your enemy appear illogical or flaky is normal propaganda along with blaming the enemy for your own crimes so when or if you own crimes are revealed you can claim they were doing it too to justify your own criminal actions... or my favourite... say the release of the evidence of war crimes risks the lives of operatives and so the person releasing evidence of war crimes should be prosecuted instead of these war crimes properly investigated and guilty parties punished.... eh Julian and Edward?
However, even vehicles damaged by the Lancets are temporarily unable to perform combat missions due to the need for repairs.
It has already been mentioned that most foreign vehicles did not come with spare parts so even losing a tire can mean an armoured vehicle is rendered useless by fragments of bombs or weapons slashing the tires.
The diesel and time and people and effort to recover the vehicle and then to try to fix it will be far greater than for other vehicles and their might not be a part that can fix it...
It is an emotional response to a highly emotion driven event, such is war.
A counterproductive response that causes division and conflict when unity and cooperation should be the goal.
Wars are terrible... even necessary ones... lots of good people die and terrible things happen that scar everyone involved... Putin could have started this war 8 years ago and if the US was in Russias position they likely would have started the conflict 8 years ago and leveled the place. You might argue that would be better but look at western conflicts and conflicts Russia got involved with and tell me which knows what they are doing?
So now we know that the Kherson retreat was part of some deal lol....pathetic.
The might be discussing a prison swap for that basketball chick who smuggled drugs into Russia.
They have no reason to stop the conflict in the Ukraine any time soon... otherwise that 300K man mobilisation would be a big fat waste of time and money.
Ukraine just keeps advancing though...
War Monitor...
lol, doesn't matter what this mouthpiece says. If America wants to offer a Minsk 3 type of deal to Russia, then it will go that way. Stoltenberg doesn't have actual real power or sway to continue something that America doesn't want to continue, if America chooses to actually go down that route.
Doesn't really matter what you say or think... America can offer anything they please... even if they offered Alaska back it is not worth consideration because their promises and agreements are worthless.
Nope. You think they're gonna have some talks just over some stupid WNBA player lol? Perfect timing to retreat from Kherson and all of a sudden have "talks" with Americans a few days later. Put the two and two together and what do you get? This is not hard to figure out.
You are adding up completely unrelated things... how about December 7th rapidly approaching... a traditional date for countries heavily under economic sanctions by the west to attack the US... maybe on December the 7th 2022 Russia is going to nuke Hawaii?
That is adding two and two together... perfectly logical... but not really supported by the facts or common sense.
Making a deal would be bad for the russians not only does that make them appear weak, which hey if you got forced into an agreement by Ukraine....one has to wonder but it completely ruins the army's rep and makes countries less worried about Russia and willing to ally with them and frankly far to much to even mention.
Which is why only trolls are suggesting it could be a deal. Minsk 3 would be enough to say it wont be signed by Russia, but it would actually be Ankara 2 after the Grain deal... and how was that honoured let alone either of the Minsk agreements?
US general Milley is suggesting "peace talks" and now Macron is about to call Putin.
That is evidence they know they can't win on the battlefield and that if it doesn't end soon a catastrophic collapse would be very embarrassing for the west, but why would Putin care about that?
And the Russians are so desperate to end this war, they might actually take it. Now, some sort of deal could fall apart still but chances are good that Russia would accept a very poor deal just to end the war. That's my reading at least.
FP is Russian, do you think he is desperate to end this conflict at any cost?
Ending this conflict at any cost would be to piss on all the Russians that have died fighting these nazis...
They lost in Afghanistan in embarrassing fashion and the 1st Chechen war. This has happened in the recent past. It's not out of the realm of possibility that Russia would give up on this war, with how it's going and how much it's costing them in so many ways.
Afghanistan is not worth fighting over, and the oligarchs in charge of the Chechen war were an important reason they had problems... the Chechens quickly learned which pro Russian oligarch owned what so if you didn't want to shelled... hide in their buildings on their property...
Didn't work in the second conflict.
Wont work now.
Well that's your view, but maybe Russian leadership doesn't believe that them ending this war would lead to the end of Russia itself. Maybe they believe that the cost of continuing it is untenable for Russia.
You know that all those maybes and ifs are in your head.
I have done and do my country's dirty work, so I knew full well what's really at stake here, I know the play book, I know the goals and if the russian leadership cannot see that then I feel bad for the Russian people because soon or later they going to get fucked way harder then anyone here can imagine.
Of course... the russian leadership and military are all idiots and don't know what they are doing, which is why they are a third world gas station on the brink of collapse... all they need to save them is to get rid of that weakling Putin and install Navalny as leader forever...
I live in Russia. The war is not popular and never will be, no-one wants the war, but it's very much a case of out of sight, out of mind.
Russia seems to be the opposite of the west... the US loves wars... they get off on wars... very very rich people in the US make lots more money from wars and because they own hollywood and they own all the media outlets the people of the US know that US wars are good, they spread peace and democracy and the American way to the entire world... except wars started by other countries like the current conflict in the Ukraine which require the US to support anyone fighting Russia or Serbia or Iran or North Korea etc etc etc, and such wars are also good because those rich bastards make even more money from those wars...
Russia has a better understanding and experience of war and know the damage they cause.
So you're saying that America's highest ranking general is contradicting himself and his own country and we should listen and believe every word of Stoltenberg, a stupid mouthpiece who was supposed to relinquish his post at NATO by now and go run a bank in Norway, but whatever the US general says is BS huh?
That dickhead says what he is allowed to say, and of course he is pleased by a Russian withdrawal back to easier to defend lines, but his comments about any peace agreement are irrelevant because he is the highest ranking US general and would have ZERO part in negotiating any peace treaties with Russia or Kiev.
He is a war fighter, not a diplomat... like that cock sucker stoltenberg.
America is the #1 supplier of weapons and money to Ukraine, they run NATO and whatever they say goes.
Very true so they wont want peace any time soon either except to loosen the sanctions that are damaging the west at the moment.
Milley is in constant contact with Biden
Biden is on record saying he has nothing to say to Putin regarding what is happening in the Ukraine and if they spoke at the G20 it would only be about other things like that basketball player in Russian jail. (that comment was made before it became public Putin was not attending the G20).
He just said, if you read the post above, that the withdrawal of Russians from Kherson opens up the possibility to a dialogue and eventual peace deal. Stoltenberg just contradicted him. So you're wrong. And Milley has more of a say on what should happen then that goofball from Norway with no real power.
He said it opens up the Possibility... Putin said they will talk, he didn't say they would accept any offer that the US puts forward.
Yet they're giving every indication that they are willing to negotiate a bad peace deal for themselves.
They said they were willing to talk.... they have never said any deal offered would be accepted.
Its one thing to make a deal its another to accept and any deal we the US propose will be highly unfavorable to Russia and there is no way they will accept that...unless they are traitors I guess or wanna be shot by their own people....
Being open to talk and being desperate for any deal the other side might offer are two very very different things.
Russia is open to talks... and if anything it is the US that is desperate to get some sort of deal because this conflict is damaging them and their allies.
I won't be going back and forth anymore. No point. I made my thoughts known and you made yours. I actually hope your thoughts are the ones that come true. I don't want to make it sound like I'm hoping or praying that Russia takes some crap deal and this leads to the downfall. I just have my doubts with this leadership currently in the Kremlin, it does sound like something they COULD do.
Putin has no history of selling Russia down the river... there are sanctions on Russia because they wouldn't bend to western will so why start now that the separation of Russia and the west is continuing and bearing fruit as countries line up to join BRICS... countries you would not normally expect to want to work together...
Now, if we get this winter counter-offensive and other positive signs in the days/weeks ahead, I could change my mind and be more optimistic. As of right now, I'm very pessimistic, especially after the suspicious withdrawal from Kherson.
Waking up to your delusions now would be better for your mental health, but even if you never change your mind it does not matter.
But nevertheless the question for me is what the video doesn't address - what does Russia hope to achieve at said pseudo-negotiations in turn? If an agreement according to its own terms, then is that honestly realistic at this stage?
Maybe Biden is panicking and he wants to sign an appeasement like the west signed with Germany before WWII... maybe when it becomes public knowledge it will be Biden that loses power and Trump enters office which starts a civil war and the US collapses, while EU countries collapse because of a lack of energy and no one will take Euros in case the west freezes their accounts to save money.
Although arguments like this are petty, they do have an effect. How can the Russian leadership make the proper decisions to fight and win this battle against Ukraine and the West but yet not even be willing to do the little things like at least boycott their products?
How do you know they are not Chinese ripoffs?
“He is not discussing settlement of the war in Ukraine,” spokesperson says. “He is conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the risks of escalation to strategic stability. He will also raise the cases of unjustly detained US citizens."
That basketball player is the one they claim is unjustly detained...
Apology from Billy?
Not holding my breath.