Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32

Picture of Moscow from yesterday, everything "smells" of snow.
The current temperature is -4 Celsius.
As for a major offensive by Russia, if the Russians are planning it at all (because they might be comfortable with this kind of systematic killing of Ukroshitstans), it does not necessarily mean that they will start even at the end of November or December. It could be January or February. We from the forum do not decide anything, we are just observers of the event.
And the city in Ukroshitstan that will CERTAINLY succumb to low temperatures is Kharkov.
From Friday onwards, the temperature in that city will not exceed +1 and TOMORROW it will SNOW in Kharkov.

I'm still wondering what Russia is hoping to gain from the pretenses of any negotiation process with the West. As we can safely establish that a Minsk-3 or some sort of end to the war on terms acceptable to Russia is not under consideration.

There is nothing to lose... Zelensky has already made it clear he wants all the land back including the Crimea, so talking about that there is no chance of an agreement... let them talk and then you talk and continue to slaughter their forces...

Any peacemaker goodwill it's hoping to generate in the rest of the world will be cancelled out by the bad optics its retreat from Kherson has caused.

What bad optics? They said they couldn't protect and support those troops where they were so they withdrew them... any offensive they might launch over the next month or two or three will result in all that territory and more being recaptured or at least encircled...

Time is not an issue for Russia like it is for the west who need results now for all the money and weapons and rhetoric they are expending day after day after day...

In which case the West has found Russia predictable and is taking advantage to make it look weak.

The west has been giving an inaccurate impression of Russia for hundreds of years... the west pretty much already believes Russia is weak and about to collapse and freeze and beg for forgiveness... the rest of the world knows better and wont be impressed by any cheap tricks from the west... the west lies at the best of times and is currently at war.

Russia needs to take better care of its image, both to its domestic audience and to the outside. To some extent its Hollwood, but past a certain point it has a real effect on both morale and international relations.
If that requires overriding military considerations with political ones sometimes then so be it. I'm still on the fence about the Kherson withdrawal but I'm perfectly aware that there are factors I'm simply not aware of.

The Russian military essentially said they were withdrawing for military reasons... political reasons only would have led them to stay and probably resulted in dams being destroyed and enormous areas flooded and Russian soldiers killed or captured... and for what... because withdrawing looks bad... **** OFF.

What I do find funny is that you don't understand them offering to talk... despite it being of no cost whatsoever... agreeing to talk does not mean ready to agree to any offer from the enemy side... yet a withdrawal to protect soldiers lives and prevent wide scale uncontrolled flooding from a dam being destroyed you think is the end of the world.

If the West knows that they can get Russia to negotiate every time they say they want to - then for them Russia has become predictable. Being predictable in war is a very bad thing, it will be taken advantage of.

Being ready to talk at any time is a good thing.

Being unpredictable is being unreliable... the reason Russia will not actually agree to any peace deal any time soon is that the west is unpredictable and can't be trusted anyway... but no harm in agreeing to talk.

I don't know if the Kherson retreat was related to the talks, but the West is sparing no effort to make it appear that it is, and that some sort of 'deal' is on the table

Bullshit. Official statements from the US were that the use of nuclear weapons and prisoner exchanges were the subject of their talks and no other negotiations were made with the US. Any talks with Kiev DIDN'T happen.

Propaganda on Twitter and telegram might suggest otherwise but that is just propaganda being propaganda.

So if these talks end up as a nothing-burger, I really do hope that Russia will publish the contents of the negotiations and offers in full, explain to their own people and others why they aren't acceptable, and why the West is simply trying to at most buy some 'ceasefire time' until Spring for the Ukraine to re-arm it, if not outright attempting to sow doubt in Russia's population through an insencere desire to discuss peace on the background of a proposed capitulation.

There is no ceasefire... that is all in your head... the only sources suggesting Putin might fold and give up are coming from western trolls... Ukraine is trying to rearm and will do so no matter what. Russia is also rearming and assembling forces that Kiev cannot hope to assemble because they don't have tanks and artillery and aircraft and drones in the numbers Russia has them.

Brimstone is a dual-mode missile, can be used by laser-guidance or fire and forget. It has a tandem warhead, like javelin.

No, it is a MMW radar guided missile with a reduced sized warhead and extra slower burning fuel which reduces flight speed but extends range.

The latest version of the missile is being tested to be used in a swarm.

It is an expensive missile... having to launch it in very large numbers to allow it to defeat enemy air defences is very bad news for any operators.

The Russian equivalent would be also a HIMARS equivalent... the HERMES... 6 missiles to a launch vehicle,  but it has a 100km range and a 30kg warhead and IIR and MMW radar guidance to hit point moving and stationary targets.

They already use LMUR with IIR terminal homing and two way datalink allowing the operator to select targets in real time during attacks.

A video released on this forum showed a video of a LMUR flying towards a pontoon bridge but as it approached it was clear there was a vehicle crossing the bridge at the time so the operator selected the vehicle as the target and hit it... a follow up missile is immediately launched and it targets the bridge in front of the new burning vehicle so both targets are hit when with any other weapon the bridge would be hit... the vehicle looked like a BMP and was only crossing on the pontoon bridge because it was available.

Was supposed to be a "modified" Hellfire but by the time it entered service it had evolved into a new missile altogether.

It is still just a hellfire... slightly longer range and just the same as a MMW radar homing Hellfire model but with a few extra capabilities like loitering looking for targets... the TOR and Pantsir and new SOSNA missiles should all be able to defeat it rather easily... hense they talk about swarms.

Don't think I would liken Poland to a savage pit-bull. More like a common garden-variety mutt.

A very small dog that was all noise would be more accurate...

The sort that run away yelping after getting a couple of good hard kicks in its ribs or a good hard pounch on the end of its snout.

More like runs away yelping at the threat of violence...

Still, it didn't stop them from performing moronic acts with painted red refugees on the streets of Europe for months.
It is show for moronic audience. Nothing else

It also shows the potential power of a real free press... the truth came out despite the best efforts of western controlled media.

As for a major offensive by Russia, if the Russians are planning it at all (because they might be comfortable with this kind of systematic killing of Ukroshitstans), it does not necessarily mean that they will start even at the end of November or December. It could be January or February. We from the forum do not decide anything, we are just observers of the event.

An offensive is a huge thing and if you start it the first day you get a frost, the next week might be mild enough for the ground to soften again and for mud to be a real problem... give it a week of frosts or more and use that time to prepare the enemy positions...



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From Rules

People leave Kiev, and go to the West
It is only the beginning, all the banderites must leave the primarily Russian lands

AMCXXL has already started making plans to capture Kiev and create a new-old Russian city.
I appreciate your spirit brother, maybe it will be like that - God will !

Podlodka77 wrote:AMCXXL has already started making plans to capture Kiev and create a new-old Russian city.  
I appreciate your spirit brother, maybe it will be like that - God will !  

Kiev must be taken and everybody knows that. Question is when and under which amount of losses.
Key is, the more time passes and more Geranization and Calibration of Kiev the fewer civilians are willing to stay there. Drain the city from civilians first, besiege for half a year and then take it. Right now it's no option.

The funny thing is, you have no idea how many Ukrops here in Germany came with their fancy SUV's and all of them speak exclusively Russian. In all these months whenever you hear anyone speaking Russian it was always someone from Ukraine who arrived in early March/April. So far I have heard only two mothers with kids speak Ukrainian.
The vast majority in the Kokaina are speaking Russian as their mother tongue. All these fake maps of language distribution are fake as ****. Even Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk the centers of Ukorpia have enough russian speakers there to make you wonder who the **** speaks Ukrainian. The numbers are just fake as the people and country. Only after 2014 the government, people and western parts started speaking Ukropian, before that everyone always spoke in Russian.

Hell the movie Lord of War is just a big dumb on Kokaina, because they speak Russian.

Ukrainian is as fake as Belorussian. Nobody speaks it except in some small towns and villages close to the borders of Poland and Pre-baltics. Both are dialects.


PS: Question to the more SAM enthusiastic people. Which S-300 missiles have Surface-to-Surface capability?

Kharkov the second largest city in Ukroshitstan should be liberated first.
As for everything else; Odessa, Nikolaev or Kiev, it is now the other bank of the Dnieper and currently out of reach.
If this continues, Kiev will very likely be destroyed. If the Russians go to the right bank, I don't believe that they will go across the Dnieper but through Kiev. A snake is only killed when its head is cut off.

Kharkov is another story, I would not sleep peacefully in it.


Inscriptions in English in a Russian-speaking city - disgusting..

What I found interesting in that photo of traffic leaving Kiev was the number of commercial vehicles, tankers especially.

A side effect of all the cars will be delaying resupply due to congestion.

Werewolf wrote:The funny thing is, you have no idea how many Ukrops here in Germany came with their fancy SUV's and all of them speak exclusively Russian. In all these months whenever you hear anyone speaking Russian it was always someone from Ukraine who arrived in early March/April. So far I have heard only two mothers with kids speak Ukrainian.
The vast majority in the Kokaina are speaking Russian as their mother tongue. All these fake maps of language distribution are fake as ****. Even Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk the centers of Ukorpia have enough russian speakers there to make you wonder who the **** speaks Ukrainian. The numbers are just fake as the people and country. Only after 2014 the government, people and western parts started speaking Ukropian, before that everyone always spoke in Russian.

Hell the movie Lord of War is just a big dumb on Kokaina, because they speak Russian.

Ukrainian is as fake as Belorussian. Nobody speaks it except in some small towns and villages close to the borders of Poland and Pre-baltics. Both are dialects.

Actually now I can see a trend in the younger generation of Ukrainians, even those that grew up in a Russian speaking family ... many now refuse to speak it, especially among the students or young professional living abroad since many years.

My former language tandem partner from Odessa and an acquaintance from dnepropetrovsk, both of them in the late 20s, last time I spoke to them only replied in English (at that point I switched to German because at least it was the language of the country where we are living)..

But yes I hear quite often Russian also in the bus and in the parks, but unlike what I did until last year, I avoid starting a conversation.

Werewolf wrote:


PS: Question to the more SAM enthusiastic people. Which S-300 missiles have Surface-to-Surface capability?

In the case of the Ukrainian air defense forces... all of them What goes up, must come down Basic physics my friend

ALAMO wrote:
In theory all of them.
All Soviet naval-grade anti-air systems had this optional usage, which applies to Volna, Shtorm and Rif. Shrorm had actually very devastating warhead size and was considered to take out a frigate size ship with one missile.
The difference is, that the older ones had to get a radar contact with the target that limited their range to the line of the radar horizon, making it a rapid response systems.
Rif is another animal, as it is TVM type of command - track via missile. It is the missile that sees the target and transfers the data back to the carrier, responsible to make course corrections. So in theory, it can be used over the horizon.
But the thing is utterly stupid in the land warfare. A2A missiles are quite expensive, much more than the tier up to the strategic cruise pieces or dedicated AD breakers like Iskanders.
I was thinking about that yesterday. Tons of supposed reports how russkie are using those, but not a single solid evidence. On the other hand, we have multiple proofs how the Ukro AD is failing miserably, destroying tons of civilian infrastructure. Those reports can't be contested, we just see the results.
I would put all that rumor to the propaganda attempt to cover up own failures as a deliberate Russian strikes.

TVM that used by Patriots and SAGG which used by S-300/400's tho are all derived from Semi-Active Radar Homing guidance which means they need external source of illumination. The Only Russian SAM's with a realistic guidance for surface attack against say a ship is Buk as the 9S35 radar does have such mode and largely in good place on the vehicle (not too high) and Buk M3 which even better as it has Active Radar Homing missile.

If S-300 were to be used in land attack mode it will work like a ballistic missile. Using its own INS to guide itself to target. The question then become whether that mode allows standoff attacks. the Mach 6 Speed (about 1.5 km/s) For 5V55 missile if it were to get trajectory optimization to work as ballistic missile, can allow 277 km. 48N6 family even longer with speed of some 2 Km/s it can reach 544 Km. But whether such optimization work or even presence of such modes ever carried out is unknown.

I myself have no doubt that Russians wont bother using S-300/400's for land attack purpose when much better dedicated tools like Iskanders exist. The Ukrainians in other hand have a lot to answer on their inventory of 5V55 missiles particularly their age. I do heard that Vizar plant does have the capability to refurbish them and Ukraine does produce new rocket motor for the missile. But whether they can source the Russian made component for them is unknown.

AZ
@AZgeopolitics
·
2h
Russian Defense Ministry: On November 15, the Russian armed forces inflicted a massive strike with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons on the military command system of Ukraine.

All missiles hit exactly the designated targets, all objects are hit.


And just to confirm

War Monitor
@WarMonitors
·
2h
#BREAKING: U.S. President Biden has informed G7 and NATO partners that Poland blast was caused by Ukrainian air defence missile, NATO source says - Reuters

Also

Ukraine Battle Map
@ukraine_map
·
4h
Croatia will provide Ukraine with 14 Mi-8 helicopters to get US Blackhawk helicopters in return reports a Croatian Newspaper

Podlodka77 wrote:Kharkov the second largest city in Ukroshitstan should be liberated first.

I disagree, Donetsk, Lugansk, Keherson, Zaporizhzhia should all be liberated before that.