Russian special military operation in Ukraine #32
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SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Yeaaah that's not true.
.. and you know that, and denying that in front of us, because of ... ?
Hole wrote:
Support from Klingon arrived.
Oh shit, this is that new shit, that is quite similar to something called Ababail ...
And the Tadziks have a full scale factory running and producing that
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ALAMO wrote:Thanx bro, you have reminded me to change my tires
-4/-6 here for next few days.
It has started.
I just roll on winter tyres all year round
Last edited by PapaDragon on Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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ALAMO wrote:SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Yeaaah that's not true.
.. and you know that, and denying that in front of us, because of ... ?
US Think tank specialist have been saying such things for months TBH. The US DoD on the other hand has denied it multiple times.
Im pretty sure Seig isnt a member of either of those.
What is a fact is that production for certain types of weapons was "ramped up" to ensure that US Forces have what they need at their disposal, and that it is costing more money to the US taxpayers. Not my words but old man Bidens...
Speaking in general, i would not underestimate the US MIC capabilities.
Judging by some of the expiration dates on the equipments the Ukranians received, the stuff can hardly be considered war reserve either. Some of it was around when the Twin Towers where still standing.
On a side note, my own country supposedly sent over thousands of FNC rifles. Who knows where they ended up, but i have yet to see more than a handfull in use. Probably stockpiled and then destroyed by the Kalibr by now.
Last edited by 0nillie0 on Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:10 pm; edited 5 times in total
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These comments could explain the number of S-300 'going off piste'.
The S300 that we had in the Warsaw Pact and that I know myself because I was trained on it from 1978 to 1994 was my time. All had no self-destruct mechanism, but a safety circuit, this became active in anti-aircraft mode when the fuel was used up and no target was hit until then (detonation)!
Retrofitting with a "self-destructor" is NOT possible with the S300 types, it just falls down.
When we went to exercises, of course without a target... it always worked and pioneers then blew it up, we ALWAYS fired with live rockets because we didn't have blind warheads for one and it doesn't work without the weight !!! And because we had to destroy all the superimposed missiles anyway!
Regulation for S300 rockets "To be destroyed after 15 years of storage" After 10 years of storage approx. 35% failure, after 15 years already 75% failure!
How old are the delivered to Ukraine taken out of old mine shafts ????
I've seen a lot of these craters on an S300..... in defense mode, it doesn't explode...at least it shouldn't!
Posted by: mo3 | Nov 16 2022 15:17 utc | 113
Yes. Will also note that multiple sources are saying this variant of S300 was made from 1978 to 1982. Forty year old rockets are not likely to be useful for air defence. Ukraine is scraping bottom of the barrel and seeing the end in sight.
Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 16 2022 15:21 utc | 117
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mnrck wrote:Projekt 404 Ukraine is Russian made, Russia must take responsibility to accept Ukraine back to Russia. (According to Zelensky, S300 missiles that successfully destroyed Polish tractor/killed two people are Russian made)
Territory yes
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A Polish politician has blamed Ukraine for causing a “provocation” by falsely claiming its own missile that struck Przewodow had been fired by Russia.
Immediately after news broke of the incident, President Zelensky called on NATO to take action against Russia, accusing Moscow of firing the rocket.
However, within hours it became clear that the accident, which killed two people, was actually caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile.
That didn’t stop British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, NATO and other prominent officials blaming Russia for the incident anyway, despite it clearly being Kiev’s fault.
Now the former chairman of the city council of Lublin, the seat of the region where Przewodow is located, is calling for Poland to rethink its approach to the war in light of the incident.
Having up until now been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, Jaroslaw Pakula said the missile accident showed Warsaw needed to send a blunt message to Kiev rather than telling its own citizens “fairy tales.”
“Of course, this is a Ukrainian rocket. Of course, this is a provocation on the part of the Ukrainian authorities,” Pakula posted on his Facebook page.
“The rocket could not be fired 100km in the opposite direction by mistake,” he added, asserting that the incident was an attempt to scare the EU into sending more money to Ukraine.
Demanding that Warsaw should “no longer put up with this behavior” from Ukraine, Pakula remarked, “I urge you to rethink Poland’s position [regarding] this war in the event that the red line is crossed again!”
Despite all evidence indicating the missile was fired by Ukraine, Zelensky has doubled down, denying that Kiev was involved and asking for his country to be at the forefront of an investigation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/polish-politician-blasts-ukraine-missile-provocation
Rather than an out of control AD missile, did Ukraine fire it intentionally into an underpopulated part of Poland to increase NATO support? Would they have got away with it if those missile pictures hadn’t been published on Twitter?
Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 17 2022 16:17 utc | 20
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JohninMK wrote: ......
We are no longer brothers, and it's quite a waste of time parroting the opposite. Too much blood is spilled to pretend that nothing happened. But at the same time, we can't allow them to freeze or starve to death. We are not barbarians, although, im pretty certain that they wouldn't have that dilemma. Maybe im wrong here. I wish. So, in this scenario, we would need to take care of millions of people, which will as a result impede our attack.
....................
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20747
This bullshit thinking is the sole reason why we lost the wars here
No f*cking mercy, do it right or don't do it at all
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Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Does it benefit Russia?
Yes
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The former Ukrainian president is directly responsible for the over eight-year-old conflict in Donbass, backtracking on his election pledge to stem growing violence in the country’s east in the spring of 2014, and instead ramping up the war.
The Minsk Peace Accords were just a ploy for time, designed to give Ukraine’s Army a breather and allow it to be built up with NATO assistance following a series of defeats against the Donbass militias, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has revealed.
“I needed these Minsk Accords to get at least four years to form the Ukrainian Armed Forces, build up the Ukrainian economy and train the Ukrainian military together with NATO to create the best armed forces in Eastern Europe, created according to NATO standards,” Poroshenko told infamous Russian pranksters Vladimir "Vovan" Kuznetsov and Alexei "Lexus" Stolyarov.
Poroshenko told the pranksters, who posed as former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, that Kiev doesn’t have the resources to win the present conflict against Russia, and suggested that the key to victory lies in Washington, not Kiev.
“[Vladimir] Putin feels like a macho right now, and he still has significant resources to achieve victory…Our successes on the battlefield are not enough; this is enough to save Ukraine, but this is not enough to weaken Putin,” Poroshenko said, urging the US to ramp up the weapons aid and think up new ways to sanction Moscow.
Russia has “10 times more artillery…30 times more ammunition,” and “significant superiority” in the air, according to the former president. “We need to do everything in our power to supply Ukraine with air defense systems, F-16 and A-10 aircraft, in order to at least balance the offensive potential of Russia, now we have nothing to protect our troops from air strikes,” he said.
Poroshenko praised US military assistance to Kiev, particularly the Western-caliber US artillery, HIMARS, radio-electronic warfare systems, and counterbattery radar, suggesting “not everyone understands that all this success of course would have been impossible without the role, support and aid of the US.” Poroshenko also singled out the UK-delivered Spartan armored personnel carriers, and MLS Shield vehicles from Italy as weapons systems which have proven critical.
Poroshenko, who made a name for himself after February by doing photo ops riding around in the streets of Kiev in a truck dubbed "Banderamobile" – a reference to Ukrainian World War II Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera, said he expects the crisis to continue until at least the spring of 2023, and that the situation “depends much less on Ukraine and Ukrainians, and much more on the wisdom of the American people.”
The politician, who is also one of Ukraine’s richest men, expressed confidence in continued bipartisan support for the conflict from Washington, dismissing threats by Trump Republicans to limit or halt aid.
Poroshenko also revealed that in January of 2022, he sent President Zelensky a letter calling for measures to prepare a defense of Ukraine from Russia's Crimea to the Belarusian border, increase defense spending, conscript 60,000 Ukrainians, and create a special military reserve. Poroshenko said he did not get a response.
The politician also pointed to fissures inside Ukraine’s domestic political elite, and accused “useful idiots” in charge of undermining unity in the country by attacking “democratic institutions” and “politicizing” the rule of law. Poroshenko accused “useful idiots” in the presidential administration of stripping him of the ability to leave the country to attend the NATO parliamentary assembly earlier this year.
Poroshenko was Ukraine’s president from 2014-2019, and came to power in an unconstitutional snap election boycotted by pro-Russian parties after the February 2014 Euromaidan coup, which ousted the country’s democratically elected government and president. After leaving power, Poroshenko was slapped with over a dozen criminal charges, including tax evasion, abuse of office, and “high treason” for the signing of the Minsk Agreements.
Like Poroshenko before him in 2014, Zelensky came to power in 2019 on the back of promises to the electorate that he would end the conflict in Donbass. Instead, he gave up on the idea in 2019, after thousands of ultranationalist fighters and pro-EU political forces, including Poroshenko’s allies, took to the streets of Kiev and threatened to overthrow him. Donbass was subsequently turned into a frozen conflict. The Minsk Accords were declared “dead” in early 2022 in the wake of shelling, sabotage, and sniper attacks against Donbass. Moscow launched a special military operation in Ukraine to preempt what the Russian MoD later said was a large-scale planned Ukrainian offensive against the fledgling republics.
https://sputniknews.com/20221117/kiev-joined-minsk-peace-process-only-to-build-up-army-with-natos-help-poroshenko-tells-pranksters-1104344599.html
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flamming_python wrote:Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Pro Ukrainian sources report a precision strike at a Russian HQ in Melitopol with 100 Russian casualties.
As reported by the Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol - who of course is nowhere near Melitopol.
There is nothing to discuss unless some other sources confirm it and provide photos and so on.
Any form of corroboration yet?
The supposed attack on Dzhankoy (Crimea) yesterday that was widely reported by pro-UA sources and picked up by many western outlets turned out to be made-up, right?
ed: and yes, this "the mayor of blablabla says"-phenomenon has been pretty tiring all throughout. Many news outlets have reported on these statements and made it sound like it came from people on site and not some random guy at a desk 100s of kms away from the place in question.
ed2: unrelated, but rumors say loitering munitions of Chinese manufacture have been spotted. Huge if true.
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In a climate with cold winters, loosing power for extended times causes enormous property damage. While outdoor sprinkler lines are air filled or protected somehow, interior lines are often full of water. If they freeze, the pipes burst.
If water is still being pumped, then movement in the lines will keep it from freezing. If the water stops - e.g. the central water plants aren't pumping, then service entrances will freeze and valves will be broken. I assume most old pipes are copper - not modern PEX.
High rise buildings without pumped water are ugly. Are you going to walk chamber pots / buckets up and down the stairs or just throw the mess out a window? Are you going to harvest yellow snow from the streets and boil it? Can you light a fire in an apartment building? Can you get propane at all? Presumably you are also unemployed and your money is almost worthless.
In the 1950s, there were many places in rural north America that were still using community diesel generators, outhouses, kerosene lamps, chamber pots at night, wood stoves for cooking, gravity fed wells. They also bought the winter vegetables in the Fall and stored them in a cool area. Most of that generation, a generation that lived through the great depression, is gone now - and I think the younger crowed will just mass migrate, especially those in big cities. Modern youth is lost without a cell phone and internet access. I can't imagine them crapping in pots and sliding it under the bed until morning.
Rural dwellers will adapt and support each other -- although even that will be difficult if all the able bodied men have been rounded up for cannon fodder. Dense cities will be an absolute nightmare without water, heat and electricity.
What a mess. I fully expect the migration of millions of desperate people.
I have been in hurricane disasters where we were told that every day, that power would be back soon. A week went by and we resented the lies -- deep freezes from food were wasted. If we told it was going to be at least a week, there could have been huge community BBQs. If we hand been told months or years without power and that we might be conscripted and/or have to battle street gangs -- we'd be hitting the road like the "walking dead" series.
I think that once people realize that electricity will be gone for months or even years in some area, they will set their sights on migration.
Posted by: PP | Nov 17 2022 18:07 utc | 59
Just wanted to throw this out there: In North America, there has been a continuous shortage of electrical equipment like circuit breakers and panels. You can literally wait a year to get a small electrical panel, and some brands of breakers (like Siemens) can be missing for months.
Even when times were good, major switch gear and autotransformers had long lead times because it was custom made. Now it is ridiculous. The lead time on a Cisco router can be a year. An IP phone like Poly might take 8 months.
Russia has now reluctantly destroyed switch gear and transformers. Ukraine doesn't have replacements, and there is no way Europe does either.
You don't just drop in replacement switch gear. You have to do coordination studies to size all the components correctly and ensure that the protection circuits work. This requires engineering services. Then it has to be manufactured, and paid for. Then you've got to find crews to install and commission it.
Loosing your national power infrastructure is a disaster in today's world. Everything needs electricity.
Posted by: PP | Nov 17 2022 18:21 utc | 60
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JohninMK wrote:Another couple of MoA posts. Although referring mainly to the US they are pretty relevant to the civilian situation unfolding in Ukraine. The comment he makes re 'able bodied men' is spot on, the cannon fodder may well include the plumbers/electricians etc that will be needed this winter.
High rise buildings without pumped water are ugly. Are you going to walk chamber pots / buckets up and down the stairs or just throw the mess out a window? .......
I know which option will be more popular
To quote Blackadder:
Mrs. Pants:
But what about the privies?
Blackadder:
Um, well, what we are talking about in privy terms is the latest in front wall fresh air orifices combined with a wide capacity gutter installation below.
Mrs. Pants:
You mean you crap out the window?
Blackadder:
Yes.
Mrs. Pants:
Well in that case we'll definitely take it. I can't stand those dirty indoor things.
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Saw a few reports on Twitter about that. Some claim russian partisans for the incident.
Lugansk
Kiev
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Since Western air defense is not effective, the West would be better off sending them blankets - they would benefit more from that.
GARRY, I would suggest you make some cold weather emoticon for our "dear" Ukroshitstans..
Werewolf, I accept the suggestion for the video I posted and in the future I will indicate that the scenes are disturbing if I already submit such a video.
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Small image from RT.
Scott Ritter thinks that the S-300 operator would have had to deliberately paint the sky with radar to make the missile go from east to west to hit Poland.
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Erk wrote:The missile hit site in Poland.
Small image from RT.
Scott Ritter thinks that the S-300 operator would have had to deliberately paint the sky with radar to make the missile go from east to west to hit Poland.
too bad they covered the crater. Otherwise one can try estimate the amount of things exploded there. By comparing the dimension of that tipped tractor trailer and the crater.
Wild S-300 missiles can actually hit ground with speed of Mach 3-4 or maybe less and that will produce crater as you are dealing with a 7m long and 51 cm diameter behemoth packed with at least 727 Kg of mass. If we assume Mach 4 Impact. We can calculate the kinetic energy and use TNT Equivalence to find the yield.
Then one can use simple equation to predict crater diameter on the ground level : 0.8 * M^(1/3) Where M is mass of the TNT. One can find equivalence of 160 Kg of TNT.. and therefore produces crater with diameter of about 4.34 m. That assumes Kinetic impact alone, how about if the 180 Kg warhead also exploded ? Adding that to 160 Kg TNT equivalence will bring one to 5.04 m.
If the impact was made by 500 Kg Kh-101 Warhead, then you will have about 6.34 m.
Nvm there is one exposing the crater from above and tractor nearby it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11438419/Doubts-raised-NATO-claim-missile-hit-Poland-Ukrainian.html
The diameter of the crater seems to match the length of the tractor minus the rear attachment. Typical length of agricultural tractor is about 4.5-5 meter. Guess it's a confirmation bias but.. i think some maths actually better than BSing about "Substantial crater diameter" etc.
----
It is unfortunate that this incident got so much milked out from it from conspiracy of Ukrainian false flag till "It's Russian S-300's". While the explanation could be simply malfunctioning 5V55's from Ukrainian PVO.
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PapaDragon wrote:AMCXXL wrote:......
People leave Kiev, and go to the West
It is only the beginning, all the banderites must leave the primarily Russian lands
https://twitter.com/Navsteva/status/1592583281392123904?s=20&t=3czQCQhaozpiqGRaSjtd8A
And fastest way to get it done is to permanently cut the water and electricity
So they should get to it already, even now Kiev still has water and even some electricity
But Russia does not want to cause a humanitarian tragedy, it is better to do it progressively, gradually increasing the amount of pain caused to the Ukrainian economy.
First the most bourgeois will leave, then the banderites and prowestern, in the cities must stay pro-Russian people who wait to see the tanks parade through the avenues
Werewolf wrote:Podlodka77 wrote:AMCXXL has already started making plans to capture Kiev and create a new-old Russian city.
I appreciate your spirit brother, maybe it will be like that - God will !
Kiev must be taken and everybody knows that. Question is when and under which amount of losses.
Key is, the more time passes and more Geranization and Calibration of Kiev the fewer civilians are willing to stay there. Drain the city from civilians first, besiege for half a year and then take it. Right now it's no option.
Russia's goal is to destroy the Ukrainian army and state, not take cities by siege
The case of Mariupol was special, in addition, the Kiev regime has already been in charge for 8 years of creating a fortification there and garrisoning an army of fanatics willing to kill and to die. It was too costly in the lives of both civilians and soldiers. That won't happen again
The NATO army will be destroyed in the Donbass, then everything will be much easier
Kiev, Kharkov and above all Odessa must be captured without a fight once the Ukrainian state and its army collapse.
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JohninMK wrote:Rather than an out of control AD missile, did Ukraine fire it intentionally into an underpopulated part of Poland to increase NATO support? Would they have got away with it if those missile pictures hadn’t been published on Twitter?
I think we all know the answer to that. Russia would have been blamed, and this false-flag (?) would have been the excuse to indulge in more hysterical Russia-hating.
BTW this is not an "out of control AD missile" but an out of control Kiev regime that knows it is losing and that a sharp painful exercise in personal accountability is on the way, for both the 404 nation and the little jack-booted bastards who have been mismanaging the fake nation since their little Maidan party.
FWIW I'm not yet convinced one way or the other if this was a false flag, ie a deliberate attack, but I'm tending to think it was indeed deliberate. White-Powder Zellie is doubling down in a frenzied bid to escape blame (why would he do that if it was simply an errant missile?) and if some Poles are starting to have second thoughts then that might indicate they have intel to suggest that the attack was on purpose.
If it was an errant SAM, why would it travel in 180 degrees the wrong direction yet fly true? Out of control missiles would tend to corkscrew around or fly erratically? In addition, what is the chance that it would directly hit a target on a rural farm?
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Because can you imagine the converse - of someone actually aiming a S-300 from 70km away at some tractors parked on a farm, and it actually hitting with any accuracy?
Yeah, me neither
But that doesn't rule out of course the missile being sent this direction intentionally.
No reason to assume that, but for the Ukraine's weird behavior and continued insistence on Russian missiles having struck Polish territory which does raise an eyebrow.
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Whatever outcome occured is the fault and responsibility of ukraine military and government. Regardless of intent.
They took a risk and got 2 people killed in their attempt to do a false flag.
Responsibiliry is responsibility
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