Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

The Ukraine guys are just puppets and by eliminating them new ones arise. The puppeteer is somewhere else.

Give it time. The US is doing a mighty fine job of destroying themselves. Like I said they are going all in from a proxy standpoint and nobody knows how much runway they have but it looks more and more like a decisive fight for them. Not sure what is needed to get to a default; which they could have done a decade ago when they still had a position of undeniable global dominance.

A reformed doomer wrote:To expound further:

A competent US leadership would have made sure that Erdogan was eliminated back in 2015 during the coup

They didn't count on Russian intelligence warning Erdo. So yup.

They would have also never antagonize China by allowing Trump into office,

They were so sure of their control over mass-media and their ability to manipulate the electoral process that they got blind-sided by him. So yup too.

And even after that mistake, they should have gone into North Korea before nuclear weapons appeared there - now they have a South Korea which they cannot even use as fodder at this point

Any war there will be a disaster, one that will ransack South Korea's economy which is of far greater value to the US on-side than any North Korea, conquered or unconquered.

They would also have escalated against Russia in Syria preventing a Russian presence in the Mediterranean ,

They did escalate against Russia over Syria, even before Russia actually turned up there in person. By orchestrating the Maidan in the Ukraine

and have let Israel annex beyond the Golan Heights

Wouldn't have ultimately made any difference, just given an extra diplomatic headache to the US

They would have not left Afghanistan and strengthened logistics to arm Kazakh and Uzbek insurgencies - removing Russian presence from there

If they hadn't left Afghanistan, Moscow would be providing the Taliban with satellite data and electronic intelligence by now, at the minimum, to take out as many NATO forces there as possible. Probably no weapons though.. Moscow will not want to set up future problems for itself and its allies in the region.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would have survived against any insurgency with Moscow's backing. All the US would have done with such decisions would be to push them into Moscow's embrace for good.

Going back to 08, Bush should have put those heavy sanctions on Russia since then, to allow the Obama administration to increase the economic pressure gradually, instead of allowing Russia to have substituted its imports, and strengthen its foreign reserves - unimpeded , then at least a color revolution would have been more plausible instead of Navalny ending up in prison, and essentially enabling an exodus of the pro US liberal base

Yup

Although how could they predicted the future development of relations. A lot of other things happened between then and now as well.

More realistically they could have put the heaviest sanctions on right in 2014. That's where they really dropped the ball. They were so sure that Russia is 'a gas station masquerading as a country' though, that they thought those measures were sufficient to ferment revolution or destabilization in Russia.

A competent US leadership would also have overthrown Lukashenko when they had the chance , and tightened a real noose around Russia

They tried, but he came out packin'

It was a good effort on their part though. Nearly worked. Just slipped up a bit near the finish line. So not gonna deduct them points for that.

What they now have is a cucked Finland which will not enter NATO , unless they boot Turkey (which is a much greater problem for the US),

You're probably right on this one

they have a Belarus which has over 100,000 Union State forces, they have Ukraine , essentially undergoing a slow russification/denazification process,

I wouldn't put all your Belarussian eggs in one basket, even if Lukashenko did survive. The fundamental problem there is the same as it was in pre-Maidan Ukraine. They have too many brainwashed youth. And this is the segment of the population that is most active. The anti-Russian forces in the country, while they may be a minority, are far more organized and motivated than the latent pro-Russian part of the population. There are also enough opportunists there who don't care either way. Fortunately they don't have an equivalent as such to Western Ukrainians.. rather Belarussians who work in Poland, Germany, etc.. who have more sympathy to their paymasters than to Russia. But it's a weaker relationship than what the Western Ukrainians have with Bandera.

Provided the status quo reigns, they will remain stable as society at large has sobered up since 2020; when they weren't as much aware of the machinations going on behind the scenes, people of all stripes just wanted to get rid of Lukashenko.
However if they join the war in any capacity then expect these social divisions to rapidly start getting ramped up again and attempts at destabilization to become manifest.

they have allowed Russia to enter Nagornoh Karabakh and gain leverage over Armenia and Azeris, they abandoned Georgia to the point that Salome kisses Russian dick, they allowed Russia to put boots into Kazakhstan establishing a precedent for Russian intervention in central asia, and they have allowed Iran to straddle Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf by vacating the region

In Armenia Russia is gradually losing its positions. This is kind of inevitable, and through mostly its own mistakes.
The Armenians have elected Pashinyan twice in a row by now
Russia has sold arms to their enemies Azerbaijan in the inter-war years. And recently has failed to even make a protest when Azerbaijan launched some strikes on Armenian territory proper.
Meanwhile Azerbaijan's ally, Turkey, is slowly distancing itself from NATO, and the same NATO is increasingly condemning Azerbaijan. NATO is interested in surrounding Turkey. The French are offering the Armenians to come in there with their own forces.. and at this stage Moscow can either chose to sit still while its forces are spied on there and the agreements it brokered are undermined - or leave. And Azerbaijan is no friend of Russia either, it remains to be seen if it will do Russia any favors to keep it there on account of it preferring them over the French.

If I go further, Barkhane was a failure, instead of US elites shoring their positions in Libya and Africa, they turned it over to the Wagner group- and the only thing they did was bitch and moan labeling wagner a terror group

They destroyed Gaddaffi and any threat Libya can possibly pose.
They didn't have an after-action plan. But who says they cared enough for one anyway.
As for the Wagner presence in Africa, its a growing pain for France and by extension Europe, but it's still at the level of an inconvenience only.

Don't let me begin with China, losing Hong Kong has given them the upper hand in Taiwan -

Hong Kong still has plenty of Soros-educated retards loyal to the Crown, as China found out in recent years.
Britain gave it up back in 1997 or when was it, but they gained plenty of money from investments in China since. So I'd say it was the correct decision on their part.

But ineptitude and incompetence is what led to revival of Greater Russia and judging from what is happening in China now..

They have much bigger problems surfacing

I actually don't think they will get the opportunity to ever challenge China- the ship sailed February 2022 when they blinked

Pretty much

As much as they said they warned Zelensky , they only warned him about the presence of Russian units, but they never predicted that Russia would actually go in

Had they done so, they wouldn't have been scrambling to empty NATO stocks in 2023

It actually appears they were unprepared for war, despite all the MAXAR pictures

That's still unclear, but I'd say they planned for both eventualities. Russia going in, and Russia chickening out. Either way a win-win, as the former would end with Russia's economy collapsing.
Turns out their core assumptions were false though, Russia managed to spin the trap they laid back on them

The US, in regards to Russia over the last 10-15 years, has behaved like some generic action movie big baddie. Sending one goon after the next to deal with Russia, hatching some elaborate schemes against them, but with everything failing and then eventually deciding that they will have to deal with Russia themselves. By which time of course Russia would already have the necessary lessons learned and defenses set up.

@Billybats,

The French where already moving their armor trough Romania towards Ukraine.
Its logical the U.S and EU are shipping their hardware towards Ukraine as well.

Its going to be Calibr-Time soon in Ukraine, no way NATO and the Ukies are going to hide this amount of hardware from eyes in the sky.

Propably something like this:

Pretty sure Germany will authorize the Leopard 2 release, so Ukraine will be getting 100+ of those. The US has active production lines for the Abrams so they can send as many as they want. Looks like things are going to be a crapshow pretty soon.

It seems Germany and US have decided to sent their tank in Ukraine. How can this change the battlefied balance?

It seems Germany and US have decided to sent their tank in Ukraine. How can this change the battlefied balance?

NATO's goal is to defeat Russia and push them out of Ukraine entirely.

With this first batch of modern MBTs, they will probably train them until Spring. Then the goal will be to create a combined force, along with the IFVs, artillery, and missile systems they are sending (or have already sent) and US intelligence, that can break through and sever the land bridge to Crimea.

Not by much, as they would need to send massive amounts of tanks, hundreds not just a few dozen

Anyone else think this will trigger a general mobilization in Russia? If not this then what will? The west just keeps escalating the situation further and further, looking to steal Russia's land in its backyard for its own greedy purposes.

Without closing border with poland it seems the war will never stop, west will always pour weapons in ukraine.

It'll just prolong the conflict a bit, ie more things that have to be destroyed for Russia to attain its "demilitarization" goals. Quite unnecessary to be fair, more lives to be lost for no other purpose but to prop up a corrupt regime and annoy Russia a bit longer.

Mind you, Russia's only peeve with it all is the fact of a heavily armed, hostile regime just nextdoors. They wouldn't have done anything at all a year ago if it wasnt armed or hostile.

One of these factors, Nazi-Bandera-fanboying Ukraine being all hostile and utterly useless, the Russians could technically live with. They have a bunch of such neighbors already, but don't bother with them.

In their attempts to mitigate the other factor, namely it also being armed to the teeth, well it just keeps getting reinforced.  

Pray tell, what happened to openly hostile Saakashvilian Georgia (US puppet) that was armed by the west and eventually got militarily bold (culminating in attacking Ossetia) once its military was defanged by Russia? Nothing. It's still hostile, but no direct threat, Russia doesn't give a damn about barking chihuahuas.

That Ukraine and its western backers (still pretty much openly operating by the principle "to the last Ukrainian!") would be doubling down on their idiocy was entirely predictable though.

The question is if the obvious is as obvious to the Russian military leadership. Make no mistake, they could rather easily neutralize everything in no time. Russia has the proper weapons to deal with any tank, western or not, but to put the proper weapons in the proper place at the proper time is a whole other thing.

They will defeat it anyway, but the question is how easily. Prigozhin and Rogozin probably know exactly what to do, but the somewhat gerontocratic and obsolete-minded rest outrank them in every way and will have the last word. Perhaps to the detriment of actual combat efficency. I think we have seen this already. Take the whole beard thing as a seemingly innocent but indicative example, like come on.

@billybats
Anyone else think this will trigger a general mobilization in Russia? If not this then what will? The west just keeps escalating the situation further and further, looking to steal Russia's land in its backyard for its own greedy purposes.

Before going for general mobilization you would have to put whole economy under wartime rules. Otherwise, there will not be enough equipment for 2+ million people. Second thing is what benefit would that bring?
Maybe calling up another 100k people or so would be better solution.

Unlikely Putin would have done so by now otherwise, but an unwillingness to deploy more troops in large numbers does suggest, Russia had no plans to take all of Ukraine which would be a massive mistake but hey, that's their call.

With their current numbers they will not be able to reach Odessa for example and if you fail to take Odessa then you wasted a golden opportunity you will not get a second chance at and it would be a massive mistake

You know I keep hearing this "Running out" but its not true one bit, Ukraine has shown it has no problem getting men.

This your guys versions of the old "Running out of missiles" Bit

I see and so tell me then, where are you getting these census reports on Ukraine's population age percentages?

First off 20m? Naw bud a census back in 2001 and 2022 showed over 40m.

Now you can say "X amount of people left according to this report"

But that's just hearsay.

Your numbers frankly speaking aren't even accurate and are built of mere assumptions that you agree with and I;ve made it clear. I do not give a rat's ass what a "source" claims show me the proof or don't peddle your assumptions as facts.so before you say I cannot do math. Get your numbers right

Germany is only sending one company of Leopards. It's more of a token gesture meant to encourage other states to do the same, as well as allowing those who were already waiting to do so. I would assume eventually Ukraine will get 100-200 modernized Leopard tanks out of the deal.

Edit: The number of people who have left Ukraine is about 9 million, with 8 million recorded by the UN in Europe. 80% of those are women. The population under Keivan control is about 33 million, with about 20 million males.