Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

Looks like the assault on Ugledar was defeated by the AFU, pushed back to pre-offensive lines.

This is outdated information from 2 hours ago, according to latest Ukro info the AFU has reached Krasnoyarsk

not defeated, RF forces are still working on it.
There is a lot of open ground to reach Ugledar,
You do not rush into that blindly.

RF Armor is paving the way at the moment.
Testing out the direct surroundings of Ugledar.

You have to count all of the west, since its entire economy is geared against russia's. wrote:

Thats nonsense, probably more of the total Western economy is geared towards producing F150 trucks for rednecks then is geared against Russia.

If Ukraine does not not retreat within a short timeframe from Bakhmut, they will be cut off.
Their route's of escape can be cut off at a moments notice if RF Forces want to.

I think Russia is trying to catch as many they can in an pincer movement.



Will Kiev act the same way as with Soledar when Bakhmut falls?  
Just ignore for a few weeks their forces got wiped out and act they still are fighting for it?.

Kiev:"No we are still fighting for Bakhmut!"

Meanwhile at Bakhmut:

Seems Russian south bakhmut is aiming Chasov Yar

Interesting comment from MoA

"While most modern wars have had a ratio of three to ten wounded to one killed (and this is a feature, not a bug. It costs far more to take care of the wounded than to bury the dead), this conflict is different, more like WW I and not just due to trench warfare and it's associated pathologies.

Wars during the last century have seen high levels of traumatic injuries due to bullets, mines, vehicle accidents and IEDs, combined with relatively rapid access to competent medical personnel to stabilize the wounded and extraction to extremely competent, well equipped, specialist treatment centers. While this is very costly, it saves lives.

In the Ukrainian civil war, the vast majority of deaths have been due to explosive compression and decompression caused by artillery, bombs and missiles. Primary blast effects vary with device, distance and victim orientation, but affect the pulmonary, cardiovascular, auditory, gastrointestinal, and central nervous systems. Where they do not kill immediately, they create extreme pain, internal bleeding, 'shock lung' or 'blast lung' and there is no battle field treatment that can stabilize such patients. Their prognosis is poor even if transferred to advanced medical facilities which Ukraine does not have, with most dying within 3 to 4 days (often of peritonitis due to rupture of the intestines).

Which is why I think that the Ukrainian mortality rate is massively understated (at a guess 75% of those wounded, including those who are not initially diagnosed as severely wounded, are dying within 4 days), but the numbers of wounded are likely overestimated.

So, with battlefield deaths, which we know are massively undereported, at around 150,000, I think that three times that number, or 450,000 may have died during transport or at medical facilities, leaving only 150,000 with moderate bariatric trauma and non-bariatric injuries as survivors. That suggests that effective losses may be as high as 600,000 or half of the Ukraine's manpower. This makes sense when we hear about repeatedly reconstituted battalions losing 80% or more of their complement."

There's no reason to speculate on situation in Ugledar too much. If Russians were really pushed back, Khodakovsky will say it first. Vostok is fighting there and, so far, he didn't say anything like that. Unless it happened in the last few hours, I don't buy it.

America, **** yeah!!!

This number is incorrect.
Most of those planes were made in Poland.

Tens of thousands were made, I didn't say it wasn't made in Poland and China too... the Soviet Union was a major user of the type and they used thousands...

The Soviet Union transferred the production to Poland in the early 60s, so the ones of Soviet origin are mostly spent.
Poland produced those until 1992 if I remember, so those are the "newest" if we can call it that way something that is 30+y/o anyway

So Poland made most of them and the Soviets didn't have any... what is Poland using these thousands and thousands of planes for?

They were made in Poland for the Warsaw pact market and were widely sold to Soviet customers.

Baikal and L-410 are both very high on the Russian civil aviation priorities list because of the serious lack of this class.

Only a lack when the An-2 is gone and they still have numbers of them.

Azeris were loading them with explosives and used them for a terror campaign, a thing that hardly interests the Russkie if you ask me...

An old expendable airframe with few hours left that can help them find enemy air defence units without risking a pilot is very much in the interests of the Russians.

I have always been very interested in this combat vehicle ever since its first images came to the 'net, if only because it is somewhat unique.

It is not totally unique, in the 1980s when the Bradley was new the Americans experimented with a firepower support Bradley... I think they called the original BMP the M2 Bradley and this fire power model was called the M3 Bradley... it had the same armament as the troop transport model but it had 50% more ammo for the cannon and missile launcher and the coaxial machine guns... all stored in the troop compartment.

Of course it didn't have tank level armour so it was a fire power support vehicle rather than a proper BMPT.

(yes, I have seen Armata-based BMPT design. Although I am not sure on one thing - is it going to be 30mm main gun again or will it be 57mm gun?).

The situation is odd with the Armata family because by definition the BMPT has the fire power of a BMP or more... up to or approaching that of an SPAAG, but with the armour of a tank.

Well the armata family have the armour of a tank so the BMP and the SPAAG in the Armata family risk a lot of overlap...

The best way to describe it is a compliment to a tank, so it is intended to hit all the targets a tank is not suited to hit using high rate of fire cannon and missiles etc.

The 57mm grenade launcher with Kornet and Bulat ATGMs would be a rather potent combination IMHO.

I am quite surprised Iran has not sent a large contingent of troops. They are constantly under attack from Israel and USA so you'd think any chance to fight a proxy war with the USA would be something they would embrace. After all Russia did lead them to victory in Syria.

They would want to kill western infidels... not their Ukrainian lackies.

BTW so now we know why the US wants Ukraine...

Why We Fight: US Openly Salivates Over Ukraine's Vast Untapped Titanium Reserves

The US and its allies set the stage for the Ukraine crisis by sponsoring the Maidan coup in 2014, which sparked a conflict in Donbass and escalated into a full-blown confrontation involving Moscow last February. One heavily underreported facet of the West’s Ukraine policy revolves around Kiev’s immense mineral wealth.
Ukraine could provide the United States and its allies with the titanium they need to build the fighter jets, warships, tanks, missiles, and other weapons required to confront Russia and China, sources on Capitol Hill with ties to the military-industrial complex have told US media.
“Ukraine has really significant deposits of rare earth minerals, and if we play our cards right could actually be a really attractive alternative to Russian and Chinese sources, which is where a lot of dependency currently is,” one anonymous congressional staffer said. “As there are increasing debates throughout the West about why it’s in our interest to keep supporting Ukraine, I think this is one of the arguments that you’re going to start hearing more,” the person said.
Titanium is also a “key vulnerability” for the US, a source with knowledge of the US defense sector said. “We’re talking about our ability to produce more planes, we’re talking about our ability to produce munitions. They all rely on titanium, and we’ve allowed ourselves to grow reliant on foreign suppliers for these things. Russia has previously been one of those primary suppliers,” they added.
The US depends on imports for over 90 percent of its iron ore, and does not maintain titanium in its National Defense Stockpile.

the rest here: https://sputniknews.com/20230129/why-we-fight-us-openly-salivates-over-ukraines-vast-untapped-titanium-reserves-1106799343.html

Afghanistan for 20 years and Ukraine is plan B... wonder what plan C will be.

But the the US RAND thinktank thinks this conflict needs to end sooner or later... presumably because if Russia keeps pushing the Orc forces back and occupying more territory they will take control of more and more rare earth minerals and resources before the west can claim them....

As the Pentagon's favorite think tank calls for a swift end to the Ukraine conflict, is the mood shifting in Washington?

https://www.rt.com/news/570618-rand-came-up-with-solution/

"There is a lot of open ground to reach Ugledar,
You do not rush into that blindly." Yeah that's why encirclements are a thing.

I wasn't trying to make anyone mad about Ugledar. That was from my reading of the Rybar. Apologies if it hurt any raw butts.

Seem to be showing a bit of raw butt yourself there buddy.

Making a post and not having it embraced as the gospel truth should be expected with all the bullshit lies coming from Kiev and spread by a few here... when you don't give a source why expect any reaction at all?

I wasn't trying to make anyone mad about Ugledar. That was from my reading of the Rybar. Apologies if it hurt any raw butts.

Rybar says nothing of the kind, just that the AFU is pouring reinforcements in yet another Festung idiocy. Marines are fighting at unequal odds but holding on.

The AFU is fighting for time, at any cost.

It is not totally unique, in the 1980s when the Bradley was new the Americans experimented with a firepower support Bradley... I think they called the original BMP the M2 Bradley and this fire power model was called the M3 Bradley... it had the same armament as the troop transport model but it had 50% more ammo for the cannon and missile launcher and the coaxial machine guns... all stored in the troop compartment.

I still consider BMPT unique because of its stated mission objective during its design - to be, more or less, a dedicated "tank bodyguard". And instead of just taking a BMP based chassis and up-armor it, the designer take a tank chassis, rig it with protection package befitting that of a tank, and give no provision for troop carrying capacity, except for those willing to sit on top of it. The M3, in contrast, is billed as reconnaissance vehicle. It also still maintains troop carrying capacity - although miniscule (only 2 or 3, iirc) - which are meant to support the vehicle's recon mission. Given the difference in the two vehicle's mission objectives, I assume that there will be difference in their employment doctrine, as well.

Well the armata family have the armour of a tank so the BMP and the SPAAG in the Armata family risk a lot of overlap...

I used to think the this won't be a case since I had assumed that Russia is set on gun/missile combo platform for their dedicated short- and very short range air defense system...

And then 2S38 Derivatsiya happened, and, as far as I know, this is a gun-only platform (although it is unknown if sometime down the line someone will propose about sticking short-range SAM onto it)...

So, yeah. Now I think role overlap - with the development of 57mm gun - is a possibility. Though, not necessarily a bad thing?

I wonder if the use of TOS plays a big part in those injuries. Its the first time such a weapon has been used on a large scale. If you look at the shockwaves from TOS rocket explosions they are powerful and seem to carry a much larger distance then convention explosives. They are slower moving then HE shock waves. I can see that lower speed shockwave causing massive internal injuries. While a HE explosion will disintegrate the body the TOS explosion flings the entire body into the air.

U know things are getting desperate for zelensky when he's asking for for the following. It's also Hippocratic for him to say such, and Ukraine won't have any athletes to attend as they will all be dead so he's defacto boycotted on his own doing.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says that allowing Russia to compete at the 2024 Olympics in Paris would amount to showing that "terror is somehow acceptable".

He said he had raised the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Moscow must not be allowed to use the Olympics for propaganda, he added.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has said Russian and Belarusian athletes could compete as neutrals at the Olympics.

But Ukraine has threatened to boycott Paris 2024 if Russian and Belarusian athletes are allowed to compete.

But Mr Zelensky says there can be no neutrality in sport while his country's athletes are dying on the battlefield.

He also drew comparison with the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin when the Nazis were in power.

"There was a major Olympic mistake," he said. "The Olympic movement and terrorist states definitely should not cross paths

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64448808

KH 47 can probably receive updates from the A-50. In any case, just like ZOKA said, death kneel for Patriot and S-300

I still consider BMPT unique because of its stated mission objective during its design - to be, more or less, a dedicated "tank bodyguard".

I absolutely agree... the Soviets used their self propelled AA guns in the ground to ground role quite regularly but while they offered staggering fire power that forced the enemy to duck for cover, they were fragile and not really suited to operating that close to the front line.

In Vietnam the Americans found the Duster with twin 40mm guns and the M163 with a single Vulcan 20mm gatling were not amazing for air defence but were very impressive in ground to ground suppressive fire support for convoys etc.

The use of the Bradley as a fire support vehicle made sense because really it is just a normal Bradley with the troops replaced by extra ammo so barely justifying a new designation... really just a secondary use for a BMP.

In fact the west believed the Soviets were going to exploit the heavy fire power of the BMP-3 by using them to deliver troops in the field but when the troops were disembarked one or two BMP-3s would stay and support the disembarked troops while the remaining BMP-3s effectively became a mobile force of vehicles similar to light tanks that could be used as a separate force.

Don't know if that was the case or just active western imaginations regarding Soviet kit they didn't really understand.

The BMPT is a fire power support tank with tank level protections so it can operate with tanks, when disembarked troops would be slaughtered, or together with BMPs and troops to boost fire power against enemy infantry and various threats on the battlefield.

And then 2S38 Derivatsiya happened, and, as far as I know, this is a gun-only platform (although it is unknown if sometime down the line someone will propose about sticking short-range SAM onto it)...

Ironically I think the T-15 with the 57mm grenade launcher would probably be better suited for engaging soft and medium armoured targets... the HE bombs of the 57mm grenade launcher are huge and the APFSDS rounds means it can take on fortified structures and light armoured vehicles too with the efficiency of a gun.

It also carries Kornet missiles in a quad launcher and Bulat missiles in a launcher holding 8 missiles ready to fire.

Regarding air defence for Armata divisions the 2S38 turret could be fitted to Armata, but I think that 30mm guns are still useful against air targets too and against light cheap drones using command detonated air burst rounds it could be effective, but both would lack range to protect a division so an Armata based TOR vehicle and an Armata based Pantsir is likely... whether the latter has 30mm guns on it or no guns and a 2S38 is needed is to be seen.

They had a missile regiment and a gun/missile regiment in support of their divisions... earlier the missile regiment actually was 57mm towed guns, but was replaced by OSA and then TOR, while the Gun/Missile regiment had Shilkas and SA-9s and later SA-13s and the Tunguska gun/missile systems.

An early Pantsir had two single barrel 2A72 cannon for the AD role but they were replaced with the 2A38 twin barrel cannon with a much higher rate of fire.

With command detonated rounds engaging very small targets is no longer about rate of fire and more about accuracy and precision of detonation of the round for best effect.

So, yeah. Now I think role overlap - with the development of 57mm gun - is a possibility. Though, not necessarily a bad thing?

Some of the BMPT prototypes were just BMP-3 like turrets with 100mm HE and 30mm cannon, but the arrangement shown is better.

The 2A42 has a dual feed gun and despite many saying they can't use their dual feed and they can't fire at once... well videos in action show they can and they do.

Without the dual feed capacity it would be rather less capable.

Suffice to say having four ammo tanks for the two guns, where both guns have one tank each of HEI-T rounds for effect on target. Both guns firing with the same round selected means you point both guns at a target and all your rounds go on target. For an anti armour role the APFSDS rounds would be most potent but enormous rate of fire is not important for such rounds so one gun can have their other ammo tank filled with APFSDS rounds to hit armoured targets. The last ammo tank for the other gun would be command detonated HE rounds... which like the APFSDS rounds don't need a high rate of fire to be effective and single shots could be used to shower the target with fragments so small targets can be engaged without having to fire hundreds or thousands of rounds.

There are BMPT threads to continue this discussion...

About 18 000 An-2 were made, worldwide. EIGHTEEN THOUSAND. Not TENS OF THOUSANDS.

Almost Two tens of thousands... they are redundant and urgently need replacement... using them up to kill Nazis makes sense and will force the introduction and production of their replacements to go faster which is another bonus.

Did Russkie use to operate thousands of those? Sure. But the producer was in Świdnik.

In the same way, the SU operated thousands of L-29 and L-39 trainers, yet the producer was in Vodochody. It is Czechia.

Who made them doesn't matter they have significant numbers of them and it would be very useful to get rid of them in a useful way.

Killing Nazis would be an excellent application of their destruction.

But Mr Zelensky says there can be no neutrality in sport while his country's athletes are dying on the battlefield.

He also drew comparison with the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin when the Nazis were in power.

"There was a major Olympic mistake," he said. "The Olympic movement and terrorist states definitely should not cross paths

As the resources of the Ukraine disappear into Russian territory Kiev is going to become less and less relevant... and when the US leadership starts to realise all the resources of the Ukraine are disappearing more and more into Russian territory they will realise that peace is urgent and necessary if they want to stop Russian progress into Ukrainian territory.

Zelensky will have outlived his usefulness and will probably be eliminated for some other US drone to sue for peace to save those resources that can be saved for US and western exploitation.

Will Russia comply though... there would be no value in half doing this job and being back to square one in 10 years time.

https://de.rt.com/meinung/161323-kampf-ums-titan-usa-vernichten-ukraine/

RT DE gives an interesting explanation about Nato's motives in this war. The most important Ukrainian Titanium source is in Dnjepropetrowsk oblast, and Nato members cannot afford to loose their Titanium supplies, which is required for their aviation and military industry.
There is probably a big reason, why the US is eager to play chicken with Russia despite the risk of a nuclear war.

I thought that it had already done so. Maybe this is the Law catching up.

Dagny Taggart
@DagnyTaggart963
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The Russian Ministry of Defense will take over the provision of volunteer units with weapons, equipment and medical assistance - draft order

RF marines break Ukrainian defensive perimeter, reach Ugledar


From the source:

Russian Armed Forces went on the offensive, breaking through the nationalists' defenses along the front by 4 km and 2 km deep in the area of Ugledar. The brigade ensured the passage of the Marines to the southern outskirts of the city.