Russian special military operation in Ukraine #37

I can't stand *any* military-related YouTube folks talking about current affairs. That unfortunately include channels that do provide pretty decent/good historical takes otherwise.

Why? Because it's now, it's hideously infected/propagandistic, lots of crucial facts aren't in yet, it's basically shite. You can't make a YouTube-palatable analysis with this.

God damn it, the tsunami of BS that came with 8/8/8 has been thoroughly debunked for 13-14 years, but it still ain't halal for these commentators to set it straight.

edit: Just let me elaborate a tiny bit... Okay, we have an ongoing conflict, which is extremely full of BS from all sides. We know that official UA and western assessments have been terribly off the mark (it is quite evident), but while it's evident that it's BS, we don't know the truth, ie to what exact extent it's BS. Without this, one cannot pretend to be an authority on the matter.

We also know that some ridiculous stuff that pertain to other recent conflicts, like Syria, Libya or Georgia (ie 8/8/8 ) has been debunked, but still not widely acknowledged as such. The sources are still kind of shit, because politically these things are still "hot" today (in the sense of being relevant to current geopolitical affairs) so an indy researcher will find him or herself in a bit of an epistemological quagmire. Any conclusions derived from what's available and permissible will be flawed by default.

It gets better the further back in history you go, the less "hot" it is. For instance, more honest assessments of the 2003 Iraqi War, the Gulf War, the Soviet Afghanistan war, the Vietnam war, the Korean War, WW2 are cropping up all the time *now*, sometimes new research completely debunks decades old and generally agreed-upon "facts" about these things.

So, it gets better over time. Until it's so far back that the material itself is lacking, of course. But when talking about 20th and 21st century conflicts, it's all shit for at least a decade. Usually several.

Cash flow baby, cash flow

This is a comment on the only 5 weeks of a normal 10 week course being offered to the Ukrainians. Quite how this will get them up to any kind of operational capability capable if facing the Russians is beyond me. More like how to drive to a point, stop, take aim and fire, then drive away.

AZ
@AZgeopolitics
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2h
🪖"The training of AFU soldiers on "Leopard" tanks will begin in the near future in German Munster, it will not be a full course, but only training in the most basic skills," - German Defense Minister

Pretty insulting and disrespectful to NATO tank drivers, gunners, commanders and loaders who spend years training on these systems that a 5 week course on a Leopard or Abrams is enough for the Ukronazis to push the Russians all the way back to Vladivostok.

Seems that McGregor proved that some Muricans can do the math much better than our local Battlefield supersoldier



Late considering my calculations provided for the last half a year, but whatever ...

Some +3:00, if you are inpatient.

@GeromanAT
well well
#BREAKING Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces are “fiercely attacking” in the Lyman direction.

@Hole,



Apparently the UK Challenger training will also be only 5 weeks.

Now imagine.
A Russkie crew that went the whole war, some of them for 9 years ...
With the stuff, they know and mastered it.
And ahead, those pore bodybags ready for toasting ...
Holly shit, the Russkie business should not reward the M1/L2/Ch2 toasted, but rather the distance the pats will fly ...

Some districts started to grant a luxury parcels for confirmed hits ...  

Holly fuk, just tell them that it applies the Ch2 only, they will walk there bottom of the sea

According to Ukraine source now it’s happening a huge Russian offensive in the Liman direction. Take it with a grain of salt anyway.

The number of Ukrainian refugees recorded in Europe surpassed 8 million for the first time, reaching 8,046,560 and climbing by 50,000 in the past week: https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine

Oof

@Alamo,

McGregor claims that 1 million out of 10 million total refugees have gone to Russia. This is a number pulled from some ass. It is around
3 million. He also claims that only 4 million people are in the Russian "occupied" parts. That would mean around 4 million disappeared
somewhere. I do not think that millions of Kiev regime sympathizers were in the Kherson and Zaporozhye.

The current population of Ukraine is not 37.5 - 10 = 27.5 million. It is under 20 million.

@billybats

is that chart, right? I thought the T-90M got a more powerful engine and the T-14 Armata cannon?

@RALee85
The first confirmed loss of a Russian Tor-M2DT air defense system designed for Arctic environments. Looks like at least one precision-guided artillery round was used.

The TorM2 itself seems to have survived not destroyed. Was probably not even 1min and already under fire.
If the drive module is gone, it is not mobile. Unfortunately a disadvantage.

Ispan wrote:
some soldiers claim that they would like a light belt fed machine gun in 5.45mm, similar to the SAW, they already have the RPK but it is crap. Old RPD is not available and the short 7.62 is too heavy.

The RPK-74 is a good weapon but the drums are too heavy. Essentially an RPK-74 with multiple drum magazines is not much lighter than a PKP with belted ammo which is rather more powerful and with better range and performance, and other members of the squad find it rather easier to carry lighter ammo belts than drums... which are heavy and noisy and bulky.

The RPL-20 seems to be the best compromise in terms of performance, the belts being the lightest way to carry large volumes of ammo in a weapon that is lighter than a PKP and its belted ammo. It has fabric bags for holding the belted ammo with 50 round continuous links for the ammo.

The RPK-74 was still in service BTW when I myself was serving, just about, some 12 years ago.. but I'll be surprised if they still use them by now.

There was footage of soldiers in built up areas using RPK-74s with night vision optics and drum magazines monitoring areas to cut off reinforcements. They were firing at 200m range or less and they seemed to be doing a very good job.

I remember testing in the 1990s of new armour piercing rounds where they used RPK-74s and a three shot group was 18mm centre to centre at 300m which is spectacular accuracy. It was on Valery Shilin (spelling) now defunct website...

Certainly shooting at targets at 500-600m range it is a very good light sniper weapon, but small calibre ammo like that is rather less effective at such range because of its lower velocity... a PKP is rather more effective.

They will not even be available until spring from the factory...at the earliest. Also as they are unpowered glide bombs they cannot fly low like cruise missiles as they have to preserve energy. My guess is easy meat for Pantsir.

To get to max range of 150km they would need to be launched on a ballistic path... much of which they would glide with minimal manouvering to reduce drag and maximise range and then they would steer and aim for their target which they would have been roughly aimed at in the first place.

Such a target should be fairly straight forward to engage with TOR and Pantsir and also BUK... the main issue will be the numbers being fired... HIMARS could launch 6 at a time and M270 12, but a battery of TOR or Pantsir should easily be able to deal with that.

The actual impact of this decision is that Russia is going to need a buffer zone of 150km around friendly territory which means they will need to push the Orcs back further. If Ukrainian civilians in those regions choose to join Russia or become neutral then the Orcs will need to be pushed even further out...

ugh binkov guy is a moron, I cannot watch his stuff due to how bad it is, armchair expert that dude is

He totally ignores the air power advantage and the air defence advantage and armour numbers advantage that Russia has... not to mention when they start sending large amounts of armour via train Russia can simply start destroying trains.

"The training of AFU soldiers on "Leopard" tanks will begin in the near future in German Munster, it will not be a full course, but only training in the most basic skills," - German Defense Minister

So cannon fodder getting cannon fodder levels of training... no real surprise...

Seems that McGregor proved that some Muricans can do the math much better than our local Battlefield supersoldier

He mentioned the new build Abrams will be built with 1970s armour... near the end of the video...

is that chart, right? I thought the T-90M got a more powerful engine and the T-14 Armata cannon?

15-20 tons lighter than those western tanks it does not really need a more powerful engine...

The Russians should get a copy of that to play to the west when it comes time to decide what to do with pro bandera ukrainians within Russias new borders at the end of this conflict.

Post  kvs Today at 12:03 am
@Alamo,
McGregor claims that 1 million out of 10 million total refugees have gone to Russia. This is a number pulled from some ass. It is around
3 million. He also claims that only 4 million people are in the Russian "occupied" parts. That would mean around 4 million disappeared
somewhere. I do not think that millions of Kiev regime sympathizers were in the Kherson and Zaporozhye.
The current population of Ukraine is not 37.5 - 10 = 27.5 million. It is under 20 million.

I haven't focused on his numbers for multiple reasons, but on a fact that someone has finally started to realize the perspective.
Till now, there was no such dialogue in English at all.
And it finally started, just take a look as the main prpagadna accounts here are doing their pathetic "best" to undermine the crushing demography.

What is the principal issue is the start number we take under consideration.
Nominally, pre-2014 population was claimed at 43mln.
Yet everyone who ever studied the matter knows that the number is already wrong. It includes people who liver and worked permanently abroad, only still registered in Ukraine.
Why? For multiple reasons. Taxation, families, relocation issues ... tons of them.
I can only apply a local filter.
In 2020 studies, Business Insider claimed that 4.5 mln Poles lives&works abroad. From other studies, up to 90% of them are spread among the European countries. That makes 13% of the population. Working age mostly.
Shall we apply the number to Ukraine ... well ... I guess we can. The situation was quite similar.
They had miserable local conditions and a wealthy neighboring country with a huge workforce absorption potential.
One of the points on the list of creating opinions about how Russia is bad was excluding the fact that Russian Federation was the biggest work destination in Europe. Much, much bigger than the peak of "Gastarbeitern" that flooded Germany in the wealthy 80s.
So yes, we can apply the numbers valid for Poland to Ukraine.
Let's be generous and adjust it down to 10% only!
That makes the 43mln already down to 39.
Now let's consider the emigration structure.
Data I have provided from our National Bank studies are correct, and I can confirm that due to my own observations.
Before 2014, most of the working migrants were women in 40's-50's. They worked in housekeeping, nursery, child care business mostly.
In cities like Warsaw, every wealthy family had an Ukrainian employee for household. "The Ukrainian" was an idiom for a house servant.
But this structure was different for the migration to Russia.
It was young population mostly that worked there, although split on equal among males and females.
Now, after the 2014, there is a whole reconstruction of this structure.
The average age of Ukrainian in Poland went down, and the number of males went up.
It gets similar to the overall stats for emigration to Russia.

Soooo ... we start with 39mln population in 2014, that is already drained of working age part of a population.

And we can start to do the math from this point.

It will be a devastating math, that can be covered d by a brutal and mass propaganda only.

This whole situation really reminds me the 3rd Reich, where people were shocked by seeing Russian tanks on the streets, because till yesterday they were told about the brilliant Wehrmacht victories. Only knowing the geography, one could conclude that those brilliant victories are getting closer and closer to his home each day...

@RALee85
The first confirmed loss of a Russian Tor-M2DT air defense system designed for Arctic environments. Looks like at least one precision-guided artillery round was used.

Oh oh oh, a twitter incel masturbation fiesta in 3...2...1...
They lacked the material lately, and have balls on fire

The consequences of the arrival at the Ukrainian airfield with Su-24 bombers and MiG-29 fighters. The vehicles were most likely in non-flying condition, but one way or another they are of interest as a source of spare parts for the MiG-29 and Su-24 remaining in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://t.me/intelslava/44008

Haha, classic

So much for PMC Mozart

https://t.me/intelslava/44009

PMC "Mozart" failed in Ukraine due to addiction to alcohol and Kiev strip clubs - The New York Times

The article reported that the founder of the company, Andrew Milburn, told his subordinates that "the group is dead." One of the reasons for the termination of activities was financial difficulties.

In the beginning, PMC "Mozart", which was conceived as a counterbalance to PMC "Wagner", was able to raise more than $ 1 million with donations. But then the funds began to run out and, as a result, people began to desert. Many fighters turned out to be very problematic people with experience in combat combined with mental disorders. According to the author of the article Jeffrey Gettleman, they were drawn to Kiev strip clubs, bars and online dating.