Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62

the video is about as questionable as the person who posted it of course.

But yeah, Russias about to collapse. For the 100th time since the war started

Looking at several Hazel vids, I am pretty convinced that Hazel is a version of Avangard on an IRBM. Watching videos of the glider skip across the stratosphere is downright FREAKY, its like being underwater and watching a boat go overhead. Its really a gamechanger. And that is why NATO has called an emergency code brown meeting.

It's not Avangard

Avangard is huge in comparison and it definitely doesn't dispense identical size submunitions

PapaDragon wrote:
It's not Avangard

Avangard is huge in comparison and it definitely doesn't dispense identical size submunitions

I said a version of avangard. How do you know how the size? The ionic wake it left in the stratosphere was like the effin northern lights. Just like avangard it deployed 6 warheads. But each warhead had 6 submunitions in this case.

Big_Gazza wrote:
Hilarious nonsense from the congenital inbreds of the Perfidious Albion ruling class and their empty-headed hoi-polloi peasants.  Read the "comments" for a good belly laugh...     These people are gonna fail so hard...

These are the same people who told us Hillary would be president, that Kamala would be president, that Russia was going to run out of missiles by the end march (2022), that Putin launched this thing unprovoked, that Putin has more diseases than Mr. Burns from the Simpsons, that Russia is in a civil war and insurrection, that Russia's economy will collapse, that Russia of all nations can't supply its troops with winter clothing, that Russia is running out of men, material and money, that every single fire anywhere in Russia is some sort of brilliant Ukrainian sabotage group, and on and on.  Yeah its worth a laugh, but its also quite sad.

I posted this , because it is important to know what they think . Especially in the face of latest " Hazel , " missile warning . The Duran also indicated the importance of the prevailing public attitude in the UK , and USA as regards the war . And why is it important ? Because any response or retaliation , short of war , with the aim of acting as a deterrence can have measurable social effects on the street . Will it make the public more or less pro- war ? What political impact does it bring ? Was the action useful and acted as an anti-war impetus ? Should further action of this type be taken ? Should a NOTAM be useful today ? I also remember thinking that hitting a civilian target in Jellyinsky home town temporarily , causing limited disruption , say to water supplies , will it bring enough discontent by the public against the war in Ukraine ? Could this situation be studied ? Will it be useful ? But the Orcs are a proxy force , not rooted in the public life . Nor are the Zionists in Israel . Therefore actions of this type , mobilising public discontent with the war , may not work . We know this analytically and empirically . That is why I said precise targeting . The MIC group . Actual loss of interests . Advise listening to podcasts like : Ukraine : The latest , too . Then we see the benefit of our attempts !

mnztr wrote:


Do these stock/production numbers look reasonable? I though the Kalibre production seems pretty low since its used on so many platforms. Also it does not mention Tsirkon which should be in full rate at this point .

https://x.com/SprinterFamily/status/1860112113794208158/photo/1

Well that means Russia can fire one a day without eating into its stock.

What the doctor recommends is a Kalibr a day to keep the orcs at bay

I still don't understand why they have let a defence facility untouched so close to the them and let them produce weapons there.

Obviously we don't know but there could be a dozen reasons... knowing they make rocket parts leaving the place operating means they could track the trucks leaving the factory and find where their rockets are being stored and where they are moved to to try to locate where their rocket artillery units are based, because destroying the launchers and the people operating the launchers can be more effective than blowing up their current store of rockets... which could come across their HATO borders in trucks and be almost impossible to find and track because they look like all the other trucks coming and going across the border.

Maybe that is where Reinmettal is building a tank factory... in the lower levels, or perhaps dinamit nobel are building a propellant production plant there in some basement level and that was the target.

Timing is everything, and often getting targets while they are in full operation does the best job of taking out their skilled workers in defence specialist areas.

But that requires Russia to capitulate.

Putin has said this situation can be sorted out with dialogue, but he has been saying that since 2014... in fact since 2000 if you include the common EuroAsian market from Portugal to Vladivostok. Which particular capitulation are you worried he will repeat?

BRICS will proceed but the wind will be taken out of its sails and the West will gradually be able to strong-arm the more vulnerable countries out of joining any alternative payment systems and so on.

They might think that but I would say Russia is as likely to capitulate like it did in Leningrad or Stalingrad... in other words not at all.

The west will try to bully countries of the world not to join the new payment systems... but if they want to get oil or gas or other materials from Russia or to trade with China who will be part of the new system they are going to need countries to join. I would say they are more likely to try to join themselves and then try to take control.

They are going to be pissed off when BRICS starts up markets for food and metals and energy where the supplier countries and the consumer countries get together and start setting prices for themselves that are fair and not affected by western speculators and investors and governments trying to damage countries and cause chaos.

Might as well go out with a bang. There is no plan C.

None of them are suicidal... many of them (the very rich) will start looking at Asian countries with a good standard of living and try to move their money and their families off the sinking ships... this will cause a bit of division and I suspect some politicians are going to start to suggest some of the super wealthy start handing over large chunks of their wealth to help out the rest of the population and reverse the trend... they have had affirmative action to get minorities into jobs and positions they are probably not qualified for, next could be the redistribution of wealth from the super rich 1% that own 70% of the property and material of the country and spread that around more fairly... a bit of socialism... would be hilarious to see how they justify it... the alternative is a zombie movie where the poor are the zombies and the super rich are trapped in a mall with zombies closing in from every direction... eat the rich.

How about a rich tax.... 50% tax on all earnings over $200K per year per person... a flat normal tax rate for everyone on earnings below that.

I know here in New Zealand it is a 33% tax rate on secondary income no matter how much you make in total so someone earning less than 60K per year might be paying as much actual tax as someone earning over 100K from a single income.

the economic rules of most countries stack the deck in favour of the rich and those that can afford accountant support.

Which is of course, no excuse for Russia to pull its punches and avoid responding to escalations. Russia has to do that, as there are also some sane-minded people in the West who may be able to seize the initiative if the circumstances are right.

Putin is a christian and has said as much already... if they want to commit suicide by using nukes then we will respond and we all die, but we will be going to heaven while they will go to another place.

There is zero evidence, that it was kinetic.

Travelling through the lowest part of earths atmosphere glowing white hot means it was no decoy and there was no nuclear explosion... there is no third option.

Well, it might only be a 150kg TNT equivalent, but the roof coming down over your head at a speed of Mach whatever will still kill you. For underground facilities, that's all you need to do.

Large machines in factories can often be long term disabled by punching a half metre hole directly through them from top to bottom... for example most ships and most ships engines cannot be patched up and running in no time with a 1 metre hole blown through them.

Ukraine is asking for US THAAD on Oreshnik.

They are likely demanding nukes too, but THAAD wont stop this missile or most other Russian systems... it was essentially designed to deal with improved SCUDs but anything actively trying to avoid interception like Kinzhal and Iskander and Zircon and Kh-32 and it would be bloody useless.

Hopefully the US will comply and send the THAAD so that Russia prove its utter inability to shoot down these missiles.

Agree, but they wont. THAAD missiles are something like 15 million US dollars each and they will have to launch a lot of them just to have a chance against Kinzhal or Iskander... they would be useless against this new Hazelnut...

Thinking you can intercept a Mach 10 weapon with a Mach 8 missile.

Even the SM-3 block II was no match for Iranian missiles.

To be fair these Russian and Iranian missiles were developed when the THAAD system was in service so they probably had a good idea of what it can and can't do and how to defeat it.

Honestly it is purely an ATBM or anti theatre ballistic missile system so it is supposed to shoot down short and medium range ballistic missiles that don't manouver to evade interception like most Russian missiles do.

The system is horribly expensive and could be defeated by attacking it with Gerans... Russian or Iranian.

Needless to say when Iran threatened US troops with ballistic missile attack the US response was to withdraw the THAAD system, so they know it isn't any good... but someone is making huge money selling it to the US military...

that den of villiany would be perfect for some sort of gas leak and some guy smoking by the furnace

Could they be ready to test another prototype missile in time?

actually you can - sending like 500, on one Oreskhin Oreshnik you got a pretty good chance.

You are right but also not right... launching 500 would be logistically impossible... they don't have 500 available I would suggest.

But you are right in the sense that the interceptor does not need to catch up with the target to defeat it... if your interceptor missiles are based around the likely target of the attack then the threats are coming to you... you just need to use your speed to get into the path of the incoming threats, but the incoming threats will manouver and you can't launch enough interceptors to completely fill the airspace around the target so nothing can get through.

More importantly if the incoming threat is a 150kg hardened heat treated steel penetrator, perhaps with a heat shield layer then an explosive and a few grammes of fragments are not even going to scratch it let alone destroy it completely.

The problem of intercepting asteroids is the same... a lump of rock the size of a mountain comes towards earth even a nuke will vapourise a small chunk, but the rest of the mountain continues on its way to hit earth with a small part super hot and radioactive. If you detect it months or even years out you can do a few things to make it change course slightly so it misses...

I am wondering how that strike with a prototype missile may have developed. Perhaps the Russians do want the IRBM back, and they may see an opportunity wiith Trump, so they had this test scheduled, and what better test then a live target.

The US tore up the INF treaty so they could fill the gap and make land based weapons they could base all round China and Russia... the US already announced they are basing missiles in Germany pointed at Russia. Of course Russia is going to fill the gap too, and with the guidance and navigation precision they are showing conventional warheads are practical which is ground breaking because it greatly lowers the threshold at which they can be used... making them more useful...

Consider being able to hit targets in Syria in a few minutes from getting the order with this missile?

An anti carrier version with kinetic penetrators... 5,000km range...

Also it shows the idiotic Europeans what they will be facing if they host US IRBMs in the future.

A chance to test a new weapon and also a chance for EU countries to look at what will be pointed their way when the US starts sending missiles to Germany... and nothing to stop them... but more importantly being a non nuclear payload means easier to justify and how do you respond?

Can you see similarities to Russia ? The numerous red lines being crossed ?

Only two red lines I remember... Ukraine joining HATO and US/HATO long range missile strikes into Russia... and attacks on the Crimean bridge. This conflict is the result of Kiev trying to join HATO... so killing a million Ukrainian men is a real response, this missile response seems to have had an effect... and attacks on the Crimean bridge led to their electricity grid being seriously damaged... other red lines like western tanks and excalibre and himars and F-16s are all made up by western media... all they said was sending such things would prolong the war and they were right.

They had everything they needed to win and they lost because they were pussies

They were rational adults, and the west played them on that... Putin has said if it is nuclear war then he and Russians will go to heaven and the west will go to hell... sounds like he is ready to call their bluff...

Like I said before don't be butthurt just because USA planned this better than you did

Their plans were a quick victory on the battlefield along with international isolation and collapse of the Russian economy.

Drawn out conflict, international isolation of the west, and a few western economies doing it a bit hard and the rising menace of BRICS to allow even smaller countries to resist their international colonial powers of subjugation...

Sounds like a total fail... keep turning that meat grinder handle... we got nazi sausages to make...

Surely there was a target closer to Kiev to demonstrate this weapon. Something anyone in Kiev, including the MOD , govt and embassies would have heard with their own ears.

They have said if future attacks are required where innocent civilians or civilians from friendly countries might be in danger that they will give warning... which suggests if they start attacking government buildings in Kiev that they will likely be empty because the warning to civilians will need to be made.

Of course such attacks if they happen often enough will cause people in Kiev to consider moving on a more permanent basis after seeing the sort of thing you have to watch a Terminator movie to see.

GARRY isn't wrong, it's not mandated but most countries will do it out of goodwill

I only knew it because in one news report where it was mentioned that warning was given, they said unlike ICBM and SLBM tests which are covered by new START and require notification, the shorter ranged missiles do not require the same notification be given.

The fact that this was a conventional attack is even more frightening for them.

Wait for it... accusations that Russia has developed supercavitating kinetic penetrators to cut cables and pipes in deep water by IRBM.... hahaha.

They have rifle calibre rounds that supercavitate and can be fired effectively under water through special rifles.

Rubezh is the two stage version of Yars.
Oreshnik has a larger payload and thus shorter range.

Which means it is actually in serial production and could be used in fairly large numbers if required...  

And what - in detail - US is supposed to report?
A test of 50 y/o technology checking if it will fall apart at the usual ratio?
Geee! That will surely impress everyone out there

Launches from Europe based AEGIS AShore SM-2 variant missiles converted to ballistic flight paths with a nuclear warhead fitted probably.

Or Tomahawks.

This is a relatively small bang with a vast debris cloud as unknown amounts of coal dust and soot take to the air.

Interesting.... glide kit fitted dumb bombs throwing up lots of coal dust... in the right mix coal dust in the air can be explosive itself. Of course if they hit the furnace it might just be soot, rather than hitting the coal bunkerage and it being coal dust.

That Gallup poll is interesting Hig... I wonder do the four in ten who think they should continue fighting until victory understand the victory is going to be Russian?

Do these stock/production numbers look reasonable?

No. BTW Dagger is Kinzhal.

Would like to see them use up more Kh-22s... good sized payload and should get reasonable accuracy...

In this case they were just mass simulators or "dummies" given this was a "test flight" but in reality these could each be nukes or conventional warheads, including bunker busters.

This is an IRBM and one of the requirements of its design will likely be to have a conventional payload option for use in situations when you want to intimidate and destroy but not nuke.

If they were dummy warheads that didn't do anything then it is a waste of time hitting a real target.

Hilarious nonsense from the congenital inbreds

Just the title is funny... it is clearly not Putins government that is unstable...

I am pretty convinced that Hazel is a version of Avangard on an IRBM.

I don't think Russia is ready to hand over fragments of their new glider... to anyone...

It would be totally unnecessary... like hitting a fishing boat with Onyx...

I posted this , because it is important to know what they think .

Public opinion means nothing in the US till January 20 2025, and these videos are for western audiences so also zero impact.

The only public that matters are the Ukrainian public and while 4 out of 10 are deluded, the nazis didn't have a 6 out of 10 majority when they took over the ship and steered it towards the Sirens.

What the doctor recommends is a Kalibr a day to keep the orcs at bay

Main problem for the orcs is that these are suppositories... and it does not include the main meal courses of FAB-500 and FAB-1500 and FAB-1000 attached to glide kits three times a day... and no lube.

ucmvulcan wrote:
  Yeah its worth a laugh, but its also quite sad.

Being English I find it especially sad.

BBC report for whatever that is worth.

    On Thursday, the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was hit by a Russian air strike which eyewitnesses described as unusual, triggering explosions that went on for three hours.

    The attack included a strike by a missile so powerful that in the aftermath Ukrainian officials said it bore the characteristics of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

    Western officials were quick to deny this, saying that such a strike would have triggered a nuclear alert in the US.

    Hours after the strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a TV address, said that Russia had launched a "new conventional intermediate-range" missile with the codename Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree in Russian.

Secondary explosions continuing for three hours. Seems like US/UK had quite an ammo dump/missile fuel store under that missile plant. Fire and explosions in underground tunnels has a tendency to run for days, months and sometimes even years (in mine shafts). It has to do something with relative low oxygen levels and slow but inexorable fire propagation in all tunnels.