Syria situation after the fall of Baath regime #1

Nonsense. Syria is a major client state of Russia and now it GONE. They have invested decades in Syria and lost it in 1 effin week!!!  If you want to have global influence its expensive. If you don't then shaddap and take orders. This is a massive blow to everything Russia and  China were doing. Expect much more friction in BRICS and a massive reduction in Russian influence in the middle east and Africa in the next few years. A keystone has been taken out of Russias foreign policy. I would say the failure is on the same level as Libyas loss. I bet even Belarus and Georgia are now very worried and watch Georgia nationalism soften in the coming weeks. If Assad was too corrupt they should have found a replacement and deposed him. A great victory for the USA and Israel  at the full expense of Russia.
Last edited by mnztr on Sun Dec 08, 2024 3:46 pm; edited 1 time in total

I suspect that you are being far too pessimistic. The Russians have got a very good line to sell based on the case of Syria. That is if the country, its leadership, military and population are prepared to stand up for themselves they will get the full support of Russia, as per 2015. If they are not, then apart perhaps from token gestures then Russia won't either, as per 2024.

No doubt Gaza/W Bank and Lebanon will now be 'sorted' by the Israelis so the running sore of Israel being at risk locally will be gone, Iran's foreign policies will change (they already seemed to be) as the 'Resistance' will be no more and they can concentrate on themselves. This could change Israel and the US's stance as the risk form Iran is dramatically reduced if it has no remote proxies especially as its likely that Trump will want to maximise the 'glory of peace' in the ME in first 3 months of next year, potentially hiding in part the loss in Ukraine.

This could be beneficial to Russia as well as again that running sore affects them too even though they are standing back from it. There was no 'keystone' as you put it that depended on Assad's Syria. Indeed the incoming new regime have already said that they want to maintain good relations with Russia. Let alone those countries that can feel the warmth of the bear next to them where Ukraine is a much more important bellweather.

Assad was likely nowhere as corrupt as politicians in DC. let alone Ukraine. His problem was that Syria to this day is very tribal and his tribe, the Alawites, were only 15% of the population and no other tribe was big enough to get behind.

After this massive failure, Russian influence in the middle east and Africa that has taken the last 15 years to build will evaporate. Iran and Iraq are at risk and in fact BRICS is at risk. All the arab nations will realize Russia cannot protect them even from a rebels let alone the USA and Israel will get bolder. Its a cataclysmic event that will transform the middle east. Its partly due to Iranian weakness with so many empty threats. Russian intel being absolutely asleep at the switch. Now watch a wounded Russia have to take a shitty deal in Ukraine. Very sad day. No idea how they could be so unaware that massive forces were building in Idlib where the allowed them all to coalace. I am astounded. Another failure was just how long Russia allowed the Ukraine war to go on. If Ukraine can fight Russia for 2+ years it emboldens others. As I said before they needed to close the the border with Poland about 18m ago. I am not even sure Putin will serve out his term at this point. This event and its speed will have far reaching consequences.

There will be absolutely zero effect on the war in the Ukraine from all this. And the Ukraine and the West upon their defeat there will serve as a reminder of precisely why you don't take on Russia at the West's behest. If anything is even left of the Ukraine by then. Already we see the spread of Orbanism to Slovakia, Georgia, now Romania as well and this process will continue. Azerbaijan has pretty much taken Russia's side. Western influence is rolling back all around Russia's periphery.

About Russia's Middle Eastern influence sure it will take a hit. But it was always a secondary theatre for Russia.
About Syria it was betrayed from within. Russia can't prevent that, no-one can.

As for the consequences for the Middle East - dire. Palestinians and Hezbollah now cut off from Iran. And Israel will do what it wants. While Syria will, I hate to say this, but probably collapse back into civil war. Already today there were clashes in Manbij between the SNA and YPG - actual clashes, not whatever the spectacle we just saw play out over the last 10 days was. There will be very heavy fighting in the Kurdish-populated territories as the Turkish state establishes itself there, a whole wave of reprisals against 'regime loyalists', SAA officers, government officials all over Syria's core territory no matter what the government of the new Zelensky look-a-like promises, and probably some of the Islamist rebel groups will end up fighting each other and carving up their own fiefdoms once they're done looting and dividing between them Assad's wife's Dolce & Gabbana accessories.

Although the fact that Iran seems to be chill about this whole thing and that Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire against Israel not long before this Syria debacle tells me that they might have their own contingencies in play.

Nonsense. Syria is a major client state of Russia and now it GONE. They have invested decades in Syria and lost it in 1 effin week!!!  If you want to have global influence its expensive. If you don't then shaddap and take orders. This is a massive blow to everything Russia and  China were doing. Expect much more friction in BRICS and a massive reduction in Russian influence in the middle east and Africa in the next few years. A keystone has been taken out of Russias foreign policy. I would say the failure is on the same level as Libyas loss. I bet even Belarus and Georgia are now very worried and watch Georgia nationalism soften in the coming weeks. If Assad was too corrupt they should have found a replacement and deposed him. A great victory for the USA and Israel  at the full expense of Russia.

It's a blow but no it's not going to have any major effect on BRICS expansion, de-dollarization, the Ukraine war, or the loss of Western unipolarity. All that stuff is driven by far more fundamental processes than Erdogan's deals with whoever.

No shit! That was clear when Aleppo fell in a day. You trying to rationalize every Russian or allied blunder, clouds your logic too much. You're not a stupid guy. Just have to be able to accept that mistakes are made and start from there.

No I just didn't want to rush to conclusions, nor did I experience the sort of climax-euphoria that you social darwinists seem to be every time that someone who is weaker or fails to defend themselves gets pummeled and brutalized by a bully and millions of people have to suffer; no matter what individuals turned out as traitors, or as cowards, or whatever else. It's still a massive tragedy.
So yes I was optimistic to a fault and assumed the best. It's not often that the very worst scenario you imagine in your head is the one that comes to pass. Sadly it was so in this particular case. It still disgusts me to see that fugly green Syrian flag, from the era of the French colonial administration, being hoisted at Syrian embassies as we speak. It's very fitting for the sort of regime that is taking power there, mind you. I just feel sorry for all the people there. And I feel sorry for the SAA. They were all sold and many have spent years fighting for nothing.

In return for safe evacuation of your bases. There are reports that some Russian units are currently stuck at their forward deployment points, but nobody is shooting at them. That alone gives you enough clues that deal is in place.

Turkey and Russia have enough dialogue that this wouldn't have taken place regardless of whether Russia accepted Assad's downfall or not.
There wasn't some global deal or whatever. Russia simply saw the writing on the wall in the last few days and decided to play along with whatever Erdogan's plans are.
I think we're basically in agreement. I was talking about some grand agreement in advance such as the claim that Russia swapped Syria for the Ukraine and betrayed its ally completely.

Chances for creation of Alawite republic as pro-Russian enclave are gone. They were suppose to prepare that before Damascus fell and have locals on the ground ready to fight and rule over it and also Russian units to back them up. Evacuation of Hmeimim and Tartus will take weeks, if not months if they decide not to leave anything behind. Positive result will be if no manpower is lost (which looks like it will be the case) and you don't leave anything of value behind. THat equipment will be needed in Ukraine

Again Turkey and Russia have good enough relations that all these questions will be decided without issue.

This will come to appearances and final results. And i'm sure that there's enough material for Russia's enemies to claim exactly that. You can bet your ass they will use this and it will be a pretty popular thesis. Regardless, if you or your government like it or not.

Russia's enemies can claim it but only a fool will believe it.
Again, what would Russia gain from betraying Assad, and why did Assad's own people and Iran betray him in that case as well? Because they wanted Ukraine too?

Assume this is an IAF drone filming.

The russians cannot afford any degree of failure in Ukraine now, they need that win very bad to reassure those around them.

They still a major player

Does it look like Russia is failing in the Ukraine? To even the slightest degree?
Who do we need to reassure that we're still a major player? The West seems to have gotten the hint after the Oreshnik strike. At least for now. So too can everyone else be reassured.

As for who's around us they best keep their eye on the ball. They might be the ones next targeted by intrigues and defections and moderate rebels. They better not trust the West, or try to rebuild relations with their former enemies and opt for their proposals over the proposals of those who have always stood by them. They better have trustworthy people in their counter-intelligence. They better make sure that they're not being spied on, or that any of their government members have been to Epstein island or have anything that they can be blackmailed with.
They better. Or else. Because Russia can help if they're attacked from the outside, but not if they're betrayed from the inside.

Iran's saying that Assad basically became a Yanukovich, and stopped listening to them in favour of listening to those Arab states that had earlier tried to overthrow him. Would explain a lot.

FP
Russia's enemies can claim it but only a fool will believe it.
Again, what would Russia gain from betraying Assad, and why did Assad's own people and Iran betray him in that case as well? Because they wanted Ukraine too?

Again, you're overthinking it. Your average person will not write doctoral theses about this. And most people are either fools or they don't care enough to truly analyze. And this is on a superficial level very viable and meme-able  theory. And that's all it needs to be. Political discourse for the masses is always run on a very superficially and with emotions involved. And more pictures and memes, the better.

Everything else you said is what i expect you would (rationalization included) and there's no reason to go further into details. It's how you're wired or your crisis mode, if you will. HAND

Russians With Attitude
@RWApodcast
FIVE LESSONS FOR RUSSIA

Doom and gloom are somewhat appropriate, but it is more important to think about the future now. What does the fall of Syria tell us?

1. False Peace is Death. A bad faith ceasefire is a recipe for disaster and after Minsk and Astana should never be repeated. False peace is worse than war, because false peace means you still have to fight the war later, but at a disadvantage. No green busses or green corridors for the enemy, no deescalation zones, no freezing of any lines. The enemy has to be defeated completely: victory is a prerequisite for mercy. Until that is achieved, no ceasefires, only death under FABs.

2. Collapse is always sudden. The Assad regime resisted NATO-Israeli aggression for 13 years. And then it fell in a week. Mistakes, systemic errors and structural attrition accumulate until a critical mass is reached, and at that point the smallest impact will bring down the entire house of cards. Likewise, our current enemy in the main theater will resist stubbornly, until he will not be able to anymore, and then we will see Big Arrows. All our efforts should be focused on damaging the enemy's war-waging capabilities to reach that critical point.

3. Infantry is King. A single full-sized, dependable Russian infantry brigade (or a Ukrainian one, for that matter) would have been able to defeat the Jihadi advance for good. They were completely overstretched and to a large degree their offensive was a bluff that only worked because the SAA didn't even try to resist, they just ran. We had our own experience with a lack of infantry in the SMO -- it led to the Kharkov oblast debacle in fall '22. No matter what anyone says, no matter what technological advances there are, the infantry unit was and remains the central actor of history, upon which all else depends.

4. Empire is secondary to the Nation. There was a loud public debate among patriotic circles in Russia when the intervention in Syria began in 2015. Personally, I was opposed to the intervention because it seemed absurd to me to send Russian men to die in a foreign desert while Russian people are suffering under the yoke of Banderite occupation just across the border. We were told by Kremlin propagandists that "Palmyra is a symbol for all mankind" and the Donbass is just, eh, the Donbass. Whatever. Now, Jihadi dogs will get to loot and destroy all that archaeological treasure of all mankind, and we have to fight for the Donbass, anyway. Was it worth it? I have always been staunchly pro-Assad, but a single square mile of Russian land in Novorossiya means more to me than the entire Middle East. A nation should have its priorities in order.

5. You can't change nature. Some peoples and countries are just unreliable. They will never have stable polities unless compelled by overwhelming force or foreign occupation. They will never build working institutions on their own. You can't just offer them a comprehensive reform package and then shrug when they refuse to implement it. They will always be shitty client states if you work with them within a civilized framework. We know how to work around local particularities in other parts of the world, so we should let Middle East policy also be guided by this knowledge. They are not Warsaw Era-pact allies you can let do things on their own.
9:58 AM · Dec 8, 2024
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John
Assume this is an IAF drone filming.

Most likely. It shows what Israel really thinks about these goatfuckers and they are being proactive. They knew Assad was rational, and with that, a predictable player. Russia should learn from them, when it comes to action. Stop being so reactive all the time.

Nonsense. Syria is a major client state of Russia

This is complete bullshit. Syria is a major client of Iran, not Russia.

and now it GONE.

If Assad's forces have not decided to fight, this is their problem. Russia does not care who rules Syria, as long as these people comply with the necessary agreements with Russia. As I said, it is impossible to help someone if they decide to give up the fight.
At the moment, what is happening is that the pro-Iranian forces in Syria have been pushed back by the pro-Turkish ones.
Each of these parties may be a party to the agreements that Russia needs in the region. The following months will show the rest.

As always, there are too many drama queens here who are desperate to name absolutely any event as a CATASTROPHIC DEFEAT OF RUSSIA!!!!111111
It's quite tedious.

Flamming python

Does it look like Russia is failing in the Ukraine? To even the slightest degree?

It is still too early to say. We will have to wait till the end. What it can be said that you're paying a great price for it. Which is to be expected after so many mistakes.

With that media stunt a year ago Hamas managed to deliver Gaza Strip to Israel, take down Syria and put Iran on the chopping block

I hope the TikToks were worth it Cool

Some might argue that it's better to die on your feet than live on your knees. Or in a cage while the rest of your people's land are being steadily colonized and the people pushed into ever smaller reservations, as it were.

In fact they were giving a good account of themselves. The Houthis and Hezbollah, even better. But any chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and their enemies found it.

I don't ultimately have a dog in this fight, between the Arabs and Israel. But there are definitely lessons to draw from it, for everybody.

Everyone is laughing at the SAA, but I am willing to bet my life savings that if Russia wanted to take Europe every country west of Poland would fold like that to.

It is still too early to say. We will have to wait till the end. What it can be said that you're paying a great price for it. Which is to be expected after so many mistakes.

Russia's mistake was to trust the West back in the 90s and 2000s and then sleep on the job while the color revolutions took place and Western influence crept into the Ukraine.

But apart from that there weren't any serious mistakes. Tactical ones sure, but nothing that would lengthen or shorten the war substantially either way, nor anything that could avert the war.

The biggest mistakes were made by the West. Telling Russia that there is no NATO there on the eve of the start of the SMO. And thinking that they can then defeat Russia, with the state of their own military-industries, their shock & awe financial instruments, their diplomatic isolation of Russia at the world stage, and so on. These were very big mistakes but they were all made by the West.
Russia just made a go of trying to destabilize Zelensky and then negotiating some agreements with him when that didn't work - but it lost little from trying and failing anyway. And the rest is just the unenviable but inevitable job of grinding down the nationalist-brainwashed Ukrainian army and systematically destroying all the war materials NATO floods in there from their own stocks.

Again, you're overthinking it. Your average person will not write doctoral theses about this. And most people are either fools or they don't care enough to truly analyze. And this is on a superficial level very viable and meme-able Very Happy  theory. And that's all it needs to be. Political discourse for the masses is always run on a very superficially and with emotions involved. And more pictures and memes, the better.

Everything else you said is what i expect you would (rationalization included) and there's no reason to go further into details. It's how you're wired or your crisis mode, if you will. HAND

I'm not in crisis mode. Chump
My life is not in danger and I have no stake in Syria personally.

I just happen to have some free time this evening and am writing down my thoughts. We're trying to get to the bottom of things here, not engage in some petty social rivalry or 'rationalisation'.

The civil war will just keep going. Russia probably has secured its air base and will keep Tartus for its ships as the Assad replacement will not trust Turkey/Israeli at all.

This and Hezbollah not being able to inflict a strategical defeat on the inside of Israel makes Iran quite weak.

This will push Iran to get nuks for sure.

FP

Russia's mistake was to trust the West back in the 90s and 2000s and then sleep on the job while the color revolutions took place and Western influence crept into the Ukraine.

But apart from that there weren't any serious mistakes. Tactical ones sure, but nothing that would lengthen or shorten the war substantially either way, nor anything that could avert the war.

And, he is back at it. Gift that keeps on giving.
I would say these are were very serious on their own.

Does anyone believe the moderate terrorists will turn against Israel and become a bigger problem than Assad?

Or now Israel will be able to take a chunk of Syria and Lebanon for good?

Leaders of the Syrian armed opposition have guaranteed the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic facilities on Syrian territory, a source in the Kremlin told TASS

Assad is in Moscow

Seems Russia will keep its bases and Assad is safe