BUK SAM system Thread

Seems that the whole drone story develops so rapidly, that people sometimes mix the things altogether.

This war has started with Bayraktar overall masturbation, how about it is going to decimate the Russkie hordes with superior technology.
Sane voices of how it won't make any difference when used against an opponent like Russia were laughed.
And what happened? Well, the spin lasted for a few months, and ended up with all Bayraktars taken down and own Ukrainian opinions how it is just a hyped toy plane.

What really made a change on the battlefield are not sophisticated drones with long range and endurance,but tens of thousands of small, commercial grade toys that can be used in numbers.
This is a real game changer, as nobody considered them as a useful weapon system.
Till now.
The difference is, as we talk about extremely small and slow targets, it turned out that serious air defence systems have an issue with targeting them. Not only because of technological gaps, or algorithms that are not optimized for the task. But because of the extremely small reaction time.
You can't fight effectively a two hands sized drone that will sneak into an airfield, and torch a plane using a 100g of explosives.
There is hardly any military airfield that can be secured from it, and I have already told you what the situation looks like it three bases I know - Rammstein, Krzesiny and Balice. They have no chance against this threat.

There is one more aspect.
Ukrs get tons of drones. They have been using Switchblades, Warmates, and functionally any strike drone NATO could provide.
So why the difference is so huge?
Well ... it is the numbers that are talking.
And the general shaping of the battlefield.
Russkie can use any type of sophisticated ECM they have, because of being relatively safe. From both interception of the signals that could have compromise the systems too early, and physical destruction as they can operate with own forces full coverage.
They have a formidable air defence, that makes it possible to intercept most of the drones, and create entire areas of denial.
It all matters. You can give Lancets and FPV drones to Ukrs, even in numbers, and that won't make a big difference. Russkie will take them down, disrupt the communication, force them to land, or kill them in the air.

It´s the same story as with cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.
There is one side that can defeat 90 to 95% of the incoming targets, sometimes up to 100%, occasionaly only 85%.
So there will be some damage from time to time but nothing catastrophic or "gamechanging".
On the other hand there is NATO and her proxy that can manage a rate of 10% at best,
which leads to nearly desastrous losses any time the Russians attack them with something.

It is just like the latest case of Sevastopol.
Ukrs made a struggle and finally released 11 Storm Shadows, of which Russkie took down 8.
Considering the advance planning of this attack, multiple other targets, drones, other missiles, and decoys - 70% of the most advanced cruise missiles NATO has is a scary high figure.
I would say the number is relatively close to the commercials Russkie provided for years, about the PoK for this type of targets.
In a real war condition, all the planes coordinating the attack would have been taken down, making both target preselection and flight path corrections impossible.
And what was next?
Well, grilling the airfield where Su-24 were located, along with Storm Shadow tock and UK provided depleted uranium ammo.
This game can last like forever.

After the SMO the Russian Armed Forces will receive additional SHORAD systems.
So the gaps will be smaller or even closed.
Maybe Rosgvardija receives some AD systems to protect civilian infrastructure.
Or larger military installations will get their own AD units.