Evolution of Eastern Ukraine War: Options and Outcomes

It is time for Russia to say enough is enough, as America organized coup against a legal and elected gouvernement why should russian population living in Ukraine be submitted to nazis ?
Isn't the Moscow rights to forbide any US or nato aircraf above the Baltic states, or above Poland ? Indee, what would be the US reaction if Russia or China  send troops, fighters/bombers in Cuba or Mexico ?
US are unable to confront either Russia, or China, it is time to say stop!  Russian people, and many around the world are asking Russia to help them.

http://defensetech.org/2014/04/10/russia-masses-troops-weapons-near-ukraine/#more-22693

Take a look of this dramatic photo.
It shows in Odessa, russian -or russophons ?- corpses burned alive by barbaric terrorists ukrainian nazis. These groups -as Femen- who represents near nothing are strongly supported by US north american regim of Washington.
I don't know if we are not on the verge of third world war, however, if it does not happen, we will be very very lucky.

We are not in the verge of ww3. Not at all. This is a PR game USA plays since 1945 because they are cowards. No way for Americans to risk total extinction for the sake of UK or France or Israel let alone Ukraine! lol
Like Russia didn't risk anything to save Serbia. This is pure crap. Russia can act uncontested in Europe, with the exception of France and UK and this is the reality.
US empire of puppet nations partially build due to this notion but it is pure fallacy. In the era of weapons of mass destruction the guys who own them are equally uncontested to each other.

Hannibal Barca wrote:We are not in the verge of ww3. Not at all. This is a  PR game USA plays since 1945 because they are cowards. No way for Americans to risk total extinction for the sake of UK or France or Israel let alone Ukraine! lol
Like Russia didn't risk anything to save Serbia. This is pure crap. Russia can act uncontested in Europe, with the exception of France and UK and this is the reality.
US empire of puppet nations partially build due to this notion but it is pure fallacy. In the era of weapons of mass destruction the guys who own them are equally uncontested to each other.

Seeing these corps I became completly crazy.
I wish if Russia intervene, if russian army save their brothers. Russia can afford, whatever russians do, they are the evil as the north american terrorist regime of Washington. Whatever will do Russia, western nations will sanction -economic- Russia.
Russian leaders did what they could to avoid sanctions, but finally they western countries will dare sanctions.
It rest for Russia to help its brothers, and to turn toward China, and India. All the european who followed US and Israel will loose heavilly.
These darks images recall me the tragedy of serbian people.

This is not Russia, this is the Ukraine.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would make things much much worse... it would create a trap like Afghanistan.

The west would love to see a war between Russia and Ukraine... just like it would love to see a war between Russia and China or India and China, because it will be costly in terms of human life and money for all parties concerned while the west can sit on the side line and feed the fire.

When all is done these Maiden nutters are a minority so when a real election takes place most will flee to the EU to avoid justice... those dumb enough to stay will pay for their actions.

Unfortunetly, I did not find any other Map in english. If someone among you have an english version please post.

Hello there
Please let me know why MR Putin and MR Lavrov are letting these people (from S-E Ukraine) die after they have encouraged them to fight for New Russia.....
What I see is that Russia is sending volunteers to Ukraine just to die from air strikes and tanks. Are they not acting because of fear of loosing their business with the west ? I'm very confused. Russia must secure the south-east of Ukraine (witch is Novorossia) in order to protect the Russian speaking people and to force the Kiev junta to negotiate with them. I'm afraid I'm loosing my respect for Mr. Putin.
I urge you, people from Russia, to force MR Putin to send military in Donetsk/Luhansk in order to prevent more casualties. If you not then you are a weak country which are letting their brothers to die because of immediate dirty financial interest

I'm from Romania, NATO member....but i'm not blind...I can see that it's an american move in order to achieve the first strike to Russia.

AdrianB wrote:Hello there
Please let me know why MR Putin and MR Lavrov are letting these people (from S-E Ukraine) die after they have encouraged them to fight for New Russia.....
What I see is that Russia is sending volunteers to Ukraine just to die from air strikes and tanks. Are they not acting because of fear of loosing their business with the west ? I'm very confused. Russia must secure the south-east of Ukraine (witch is Novorossia) in order to protect the Russian speaking people and to force the Kiev junta to negotiate with them. I'm afraid I'm loosing my respect for Mr. Putin.
I urge you, people from Russia, to force MR Putin to send military in Donetsk/Luhansk in order to prevent more casualties. If you not then you are a weak country which are letting their brothers to die because of immediate dirty financial interest

I'm from Romania, NATO member....but i'm not blind...I can see that it's an american move in order to achieve the first strike to Russia.

You're a good man Adrian.
My greetings! Salutări!
I think you know that it's a tad more complicated than just sending in the Russian army in Ukraine.
We've been discussing that forward and back many-a-times...we all feel as frustrated about it as you do.
We all hope for the best for the Russians in the SE of Ukraine though.
There's a thread on it BTW here.

Putin didn't really tell them to fight the Ukrainian Army, he said the Russian Army would reserve the right to intervene if the coup leaders in Kiev started a genocide on ethically Russian Ukrainians.

Putins problem is that if he sends in the troops it will look like an invasion with Russia taking territory in Europe the way Nazi Germany did last Century.... NATO would claim it is justified to react and things could get real bad real fast... which would suit the US... I am sure they would love another war in Europe that reduces the military and economic power of Russia.

What Putin should do is step back... let these Ukrainians sort their own sht out... preferably by the ballot box and negotiations.

Most of these people the west is calling rebels and terrorists don't want to be part of Russia... they just dont want to be ruled by the nazis in Kiev... which is not the same thing.

The illegitimate government in Kiev is being heavy handed and is committing crimes against its own people... it is up to its own people to sort that out themselves... I am sure they will in the future.

If Kiev forces attack Russia then Russia will intervene like when Georgian forces attacks Russian Peace Keepers in South Ossetia. Otherwise it is up to Ukrainians.

Lets suppose the Russian troops enter in S-E and stabilize the zone. Do you think that NATO will start a war with Russia ? I'm sure it will not. Russia is not Yugoslavia or Syria. Russia alone is capable of annihilate the planet several times.
NATO means mainly the US and a little UK. All other countries are nothing but lands where US is deploying its missiles.
The most possible scenario would be that Ukraine regime will finally understand that only by negotiations the crisis can be resolved.

Anyway the Russian next generations hardly will understand that the mother Russia is standing and watching how near it's border the Russians are murdered in cold blood.

Yes, that Russia is cooperating in things like gas negotiations while the fascist junta is escalating it's civil war is madness.  
Cut them off until peace is achieved.  What right does an illegitimate regime have to be negotiating gas deals anyways?

Perhaps Russia does not need to send in ground troops right now... Enforce a No Fly Zone and destroy heavy weapons the junta is using.
Obviously it's "preferable" to resolve differences by negotiation, but the junta decided it prefers force, even after publicly committing to negotiation.
Hardly a surprise, what with the junta parties having previously abandoned the Feb 21 agreement because "their" brownshirts were getting impatient.
What does the junta's CHOICE to reject negotiation mean?  Kramatorsk.  Slavyansk.  Lugansk.  Donetsk.  Shall Russia wait to see where their appetite stops?
Russia has so far up till now deferred to that "preference" i.e. the idea of negotiations, but that dialogue is simply ignored and mocked,
while real bloody facts on the ground are studiously ignored or poo-poo'd by "Human Rights Defenders".

The NATO-Atlanticist project is not seeking a sustainable consensual solution, they are seeking the isolation and weakening of Russia,
parallel with the neutering/subjugation of the EU to the US... I mean, they freaking write books about it, it's not a secret or something.
Rather than continue with the sham of negotiations which are promptly ignored insofar as they would constrain the fascist junta,
Russia should free itself from NATO's controlled disaster in motion, and create a real solution irregardless of NATO or junta protestation.
Actions speak louder than words, and the junta has already "spoken", so Russia may now respond along with Novorussians.
NATO goons will protest, but at this point post-Odessa/Lugansk/Slavyansk/etc, an independent Novorussia is the most viable solution,
and any "partners" Russia actually has in EU will be willing to accept that solution and pick up the pieces from there to move on.

Russia has already publicized legitimate President Yanukovych's request of them to protect citizens vs. junta's imposition of power.
They have 100% the legitimacy to do so in mainland Ukraine just as in Crimea.  This does not mean annexing to Russia.
I believe Novorus will not now want to continue as part of Kievan Ukraine, but as it's own country it can live just as well.
How the rest of Novorus and Ukraine develop is a major part of the story, I believe there will be further "defections" of UKR military and police.
Even in West and Central Ukraine there seems significant opposition to the "ATO"/civil war, and I believe even a "rump" Kievan Ukraine
will have it's own reckoning with the people dealing with the criminal oligarch-NATO-fascist nexus that brought ruin on their country.
The Maidan regime will likely collapse on it's self.  Russia can recognize and negotiate with the revolutionary regime that follows.

The EU will shortly be forming a new power structure, the new group is not likely to swallow whole all the mistakes of their predecessor.
The EU is facing a shit-storm of their own making, a black hole catastrophe in Ukraine and collapse of Russian relations would be catastrophe.
The only solution the US offers is escalation and submition to them, with TTIP being much more beneficial to US than the EU.
Accepting the failure of the Atlanticist project in Ukraine, and reaching out to a new sustainable future with Russia is the EU's best bet.

It's perfect logical but the facts on the ground are alarming :
           1. The junta is using war planes, artillery and tanks
           2. They are indefinitely backed by the US (financial and as a new military)
           3. Self defense forces is fighting an asymmetric war...it's look like a collective suicide (see the Airport massacre)

I think MR Putin is playing a very dangerous game for himself. All the world-wide respect and support he achieved in the last months can very quickly turn into opposite side. Especially  in Russia. Seeing women and children dying it's a major sentimental strike for many.
The general perception is that the Russian inactivity is because of some kind of occult agreement with US or the fear of inner circle of MR Putin of loosing money because of sanctions.
Maybe MR Putin has a more complicated and elaborated plan of action but at least at the immediate impression Russia is not acting like a real power capable of swift and decisive actions in order to protect it's own Russian native people from S-E along with transmitting a very strong message to the US that the expansion of NATO to the Russian border it's not possible any more.

If MR Putin has decided that this is the right way at leas he could help the fighters with advanced weaponry, especially anti-aircraft and anti-tank

What Russian public opinion is doing? Now Moscow should be stunned by massive protests to support Russians in Ukraine.
Russia must fight her inferiority syndrome to confront directly US and Putin and his fellows know this very well.
Sometimes taking the beating is the best way to gain confidence. This is just a guess from an amateur psychologist.

Hannibal Barca wrote:What Russian public opinion is doing? Now Moscow should be stunned by massive protests to support Russians in Ukraine.
Russia must fight her inferiority syndrome to confront directly US and Putin and his fellows know this very well.
Sometimes taking the beating is the best way to gain confidence. This is just a guess from an amateur psychologist.

I agree with every word. Russians are too passive IMHO.

Georgia was out of the way and difficult for the US to get to.

They have plenty of land access to Ukraine and if Russia sent in troops it would be very easy to give direct military assistance to Ukraine and start a bloody civil war there that could easily spiral out of control.

Russia has no right to send troops into the Ukraine... and I suspect no interest either.

Russia didn't send troops to one of the 'stans when it was having problems and wanted Russian troops to keep the peace, why should it send troops into the Ukraine?

Russia has tried to be a good neighbour but all it gets from the Ukraine is pain.

The Ukraine needs to decide what it wants to do and Russia sending in troops wont solve anything.

Then Russia is using the insurrection in order to get as much as possible on a future Russia-Ukraine negotiations.... Sounds clever but when a 8 year old child was killed in recent Slavyansk shelling along with many other civilians then  it seems a cynical calculation. There are ethnical Russians  killed systematically by Ukrainian army. Imagine how would react USA if American citizens would be killed in a neighbor country.
And I repeat myself once again : in this scenario the rebels need more advanced support (weaponry) and the civilians immediately evacuated.

And I repeat myself once again : in this scenario the rebels need more advanced support (weaponry) and the civilians immediately evacuated.

Heavy weapons like MANPADS and ATGMs will escalate the situation to an all out civil war... if the area has civilians removed then you might as well just burn down everything now and save Kiev the trouble... Kiev wants these regions for economic reasons... but cares little for the people currently living there.

The best solution for the people of these regions is for them to adopt a scorched earth policy... destroy absolutely everything and move east and live in Russia or west in western Ukraine and let Russia or the EU deal with their new situation.

equally heavy weapons are of little use against artillery fire, but lots of new heavy weapons will be able to be used by Kiev to justify their war crimes... ie they have to use artillery because the rebels have armour/heavy weapons.

Then Russia is using the insurrection in order to get as much as possible on a future Russia-Ukraine negotiations....

Russia is not using anyone. The Ukrainian government is doing this to its own people, and the west is supporting them because as usual they are acting against ethnically Russian people and the west will support anyone who acts against Russia.

Remember all that NATO is not Russias enemy BS? Especially when they were planning components of an ABM system in Europe...

Weeks ago I had a vision of a great ruler who is able  to oppose and repeal American expansionism. After hundred of fighters and civilians died in a name of this dream mr putin is moving back and he announced indirect that Russia is no longer interested by Donbas and novorossya people. I'm Romanian and I don't know why I felt very proud by initial Putin actions in Crimea as a solid signal of anti global and anti American leadership. All what I see now is a cowardly move back. Ukraine will become UE member. This is not the main issue : Ukraine will become a nato member and I I'll be very 'pleased' to see how will react mr putin with dozens of missiles installed just next to his border. Anyway, the game was won by America once again. Hundreds of brave fighters and civilians died for nothing. My feeling is Russia just lost a big history chance and who knows if there will be a next one.

I'm deeply hope that it's just a hidden strategic game and not a unforgivable  history mistake.

The fear of sanctions shows us how little are the actual rulers of Russia. Accounting the immediate financial interests above a next generations strategic interests shows us that the actual Russian leadership is not up to the historical events.

Kindly read THIS.
And perhaps you'll understand that it's a bit more complicated than that.
Not claiming that it's right, but it's a good analysis, and what's even more important, has been published May 2014.

Of course the things are more complex... but the great achievements  are made with simple people. I am part  of simple people and what I see is a infamous betrayal. If mr putin had no intention to create novorossya why he encouraged it ?  It seems that mr putin views people and their lifes just as simple objects good for exchange. In this case the responsibility of hundreds died it's not a Ukr ATO but MR putin.

What exactly were you expecting Putin to do?

Invade?

These regions are not 100% Russian populated and of those ethnically Russian people in these regions it is not clear they want to be part of Russia or to have Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.

the US and EU hold most of the cards.

Russia has learned its lesson and is adapting east... it will likely continue to trade with the EU but its focus will be moved elsewhere for essential ties and close commitments.

Russia doesn't need more hangars on... if the EU wants to sink money into the Ukraine then let them.

Trade with the Ukraine and Russia will be dramatically reduced and limited... mostly by the Ukraine itself.

The only solution is via the ballot box and talks.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ro/2014/07/window-on-eurasia-putins-russia-now-in.html
 
Yes. Russia must invade right now Ukraine. It's vital for Russia. If not then the next maidan will be right in Moscow and the last bastion against American hegemony will be lost. Russia as well. It seems that Mr Putin is coward [yes it is]. A superpower with more than 12000 nuclear warheads its afraid to protect it's own interests!!!
In hard times ... steel will is needed. Any compromises means looses for Russia. Perhaps. The game is at Russia border!!! Russia must install nuclear weapons in Cuba again in order to balance the situation.
Millions of people died in the past for Russia and it's security.  If Putin does nothing then Russia already lost.
A lighting-strike on Ukraine, a purge on all neo-Nazis and an assurance of a neutral status of Ukraine is immediately needed.
Again...Mr Putin is a weak man. If he is compromising then he's lost. and Russia too. ... in few years [it's clear the American plan to contain Russia and destroy it as a last obstacle in it's plan to global dominance]

Russia still has the largest territory and has all chances to become a great power again. Accepting a dirty compromises is not the way to do that. Ukraine MUST become a neutral state if not an allay.
If Russia abandon Novorossya then Ukraine will become an enemy state stronger and stronger and Russia will have to face the Crimea claim as well as Transnistria blockade. If I where MR Putin I would attack immediately and after that I would negotiate an acceptable compromise


Viva le gays and nato.

Putin has betrayed Novorossyia

The answer is probably yes. Is it because Putin is surrounded by weak, greedy and corrupt individuals who are terrified of further sanctions because this will affect freedom of travel for them (and their children some of them studying abroad), will freeze their assets etc?

If so, the Iranians had far more 'cojones'!

Ok. Lets compare the possible alternatives:
[All premises must start from the idea that Ukraine will be for many years from now on a slave American state.]

1. Putin indeed betrayed Novorossya
               in this case Putin will not face the economic sanctions from US and Eu ... but he will must face a sharp lost of he's image as a brave leader...especially at home . All his adversaries will speculate his cowardice preferring economic advantages instead patriotic ones. Besides this, the rest of the world will see him as a weak leader.

2. Putin has not betrayed Novorossya
              waiting so long in order to take actions means hundreds of civilian life lost.... If Ukrainian gov can be blamed of genocide then the Russians then Russia can be blamed for allowing it.
If, from the first time, Russia would denounced the attempt by the US to encircle it and, therefore, as a urgent necessary national security measure it secured S_E Ukraine and Crimea I think it would been a more appropriate action. But now, hundreds of civilians are dying
and Mother Russia is doing nothing. This is the main problem I think. Russia had a huge image capital months ago. Now all of it has gone.

My friends, please let me understand what are waiting Putin for ? Militia is loosing, Russian ethnics die daily, EU and US already have posted sanctions over Russia....etc etc....

   What is waiting Putin for ??? This is my big question.... If he would secured Donbas from the beginning all this mess never happened!!

   Hey...Russians...call Putin to send troops into Donbas and to end this mess once and for all !!!