Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

Vann7 wrote:The environment is ideal for a major FALSE flag event...

With Civilians Airliners planes , being shoot down.. by Israel or NATO.. and later Syria and Russia
blamed for it.. similar to the malasyan plane incident that crashed in DOnetsk. Israel airforce could even use
hot hide behind civilian airliners to attack syria..  or worse.. Israel and NATO could load a civilian plane
with lots of ISIS and Alqaeda terrorist ,and the plane filled with 50 tons of TNT ..then fly the plane over Russia
military base... So it will create a major issue for Russia .. of whether or not to shoot the plane..  They did this
with the Korean airliners ,that soviets were forced to shoot down.. because after half an hour ,refused to obey orders
to deviate from tis flight path... that was heading towards Russian military bases.. Is a dirty war ... and they can do
any thing.. it could be an old warship.. During Bush JR reign of terror.. it was told his vice president was planning
to sink an Old warship ,from any middle east country with their participation in the false flag. painted as an American warship ,and then blame it on IRAN.. and use the incident to do a nuclear attack on IRAN.. The same script could be now done ..but blame hezbolah or Syria for it.. So Russia will need to try to create a no Transit zone.. between Cyprus and Lebanon-Syria coast..  otherwise there will be Lots of False Flags.. with civilian airliners or Civilian ships , and then blame Syria or hezbolah for it.. allowing them to deploy their "rescue boats" and create a buffer zone ,near Russia base..for extracting anything..

Is surprising they haven't done this already.. Malasyan or Titanic like accidents. but all staged ,inside jobs..
to blame Syria ,Russia ,Hezbolah or IRAN.. and use it to justify bombing Syria..  

 Russia needs to create security zone ..near their base and enforce it.. not allow NATO or Israel to get anywhere close to their base. Because the closer they are ,the less time for interception Russian air defenses will have. specially in a saturated attack..

They kinda have by deploying S300, no one knows who's finger is on the trigger. No one can blame Russia, as they have made it 100% clear the Syrians have S300 and if they enter Syrian airspace or launch any sort of missile at Syria they may get shot down... they have created a whole lot of strategic ambiguity and risk.

Isos wrote:Babak Taghvaee
Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
·
39m
#BREAKING: My #Russia|n Military sources say 3 An-124-100s of #Russia Air Force were used to transfer a S-300V4 SAM battery of #Russia|n 77th independent anti-aircraft missile brigade to #Hmeimim, #Latakia to be handed over #Syria Air Defense Force! It is S-300V4 not S-300PMU-2!
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From wikipedia..

Different versions of the NPO Novator 9M82MD[35] S-300V4 missiles have a range of 400 km at Mach 7.5 or a range of 350 km at Mach 9 and can destroy maneuvering targets even at very high altitudes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system

if the information is correct from the source and from wikipedia too...
Which will not be surprising.. since the Russian military is in fumes with Israel.. they understand well
israel will continue targeting not only Syrian military bases but Russian positions too.. claiming that
"it was against IRAN" bla bla bla bla... So effectively if the information is confirmed.. the Syrian army
will have the capability to shoot down any plane in the Entire Israel Airspace.  
So Netanyahu own plane could be at risk of being shoot down by Syrian army...

Albeit this in theory , because any missile fired towards Israel airspace will be intercepted by their air defenses..
But this still complicate things ,because S-300v4 missiles are hypersonic mach 9.0 (for comparisons Patriot missiles fly at mach 5.0) , fly very fast.. Israel air defenses will have to fire way before the missiles get close to their planes
,otherwise risk of shooting down their own airplanes.. Still is good.. because Syria will have a way to shoot any formation of jets , preparing for a major scale attack ,in the Mediterranean sea ,anywhere in the coast of Israel ,lebanon ,Cyprus or Syria.. all the way to Turkey mediterranean coast.. also Hit any plane flying over Jordanian airspace and the mediterranean coast all the way to Cyprus and a bit beyond it..  If i was in Russia , will deploy the S-300s launchers in the rails ,they had their S-200.. that way will be always in motion .. very hard to hit. and the base surrounded by powerful Electronic warfare ,to jam kamikaze drones near.. S-300V4 ,should be good too against ballistic missiles ,launched from planes ,that israel have been practicing lately.. in their tactics..

S-300sV4 combined with many Pantsirs and TORs defenses . Combined with strong radars and electronic warfare will be more than enough for the job.

How likely is TorM2? All of Russia will have a maximum of 30 systems of it.

The S-300/400 installations at Tartous/Hmeimin are at sea level so are limited in low level range. To see what kind of clear view it would have I thought I would check out the elevation of the RuAF S-400 site up in the Masyuf mountains.

Looks like they couldn't have chosen a much better spot, its 1310m/4297ft above sea level and seems to have a pretty clear view south to the Lebanese mountains. From that height there is visibility to sea level at 130km/80 miles, roughly to Beirut and unobstructed view down the Israeli coast past Haifa to Tel Aviv. Also, in the other direction, a clear view over eastern Syria. Its about 160 miles to Akrotiri.

Now that the RuAF is expected to adopt a more aggressive defensive role over Syria, this site, being Russian so verboten to attack without big consequences, is a critical feed into the overall Syrian air defence system. It makes an IAF sneak attack an interesting tactical challenge as once the Syrians get a S-300 into the Damascus area or east of it the Bekaa Valley is almost the only radar shadow area outside Israel itself left.

Submarine based attack next? Or just weapons release over Israel?

Guys, the exact details really do not matter in this case of Russia's asset's versus NATO/Israel. Russia said they would jam all GPS,Radar and Comms of any aircraft attacking Syria.

From my own experiences in Afghanistan, we endured a lot of issue's with sun-spots with our sattelites for example. it brings blind-spots where they simply have to shut down to prevent damage, or UHF communication's become impossible. Battlefield communication's are a pain in the ass the maintain even without jamming.

My point is that NATO needs full acces to it's sattelites and remote comms to be able to operate it's stand-off weapons. and be able to execute its operations. it has in not any shape or form ways to peform it's operations in an heavy electronic warfare enviroment, as it never had to deal with it.

For example, If a Tomahawk loses it's GPS signal. it no longer can check/match it's trajectory to its intended target. With signal loss, it follows its path its computer think's is the last correct path. but what the reason also was for so many Tomahawks missing their target, was that Russian Electronic warfare distorted the GPS signal while supressing any authentic U.S Signal from getting trough to the missiles. they could not even let them self-destruct if they wanted to. So the Tomahawks slammed into mountains or detonated harmlessly into empty deserts. Why do you think Moscow got fully intact missiles after the U.S strike?. or so many never reached their targets?.

I said it before and i repeat myself now, this is an 80's design and it's software has never been updated. in Afghanistan we had to send in ground-teams because Tomahawks are influenced by sattelite interferrence to recover their missiles. you do not think +/- 40 years later Russia has not figured it out how to screw the guidance of these missiles up?.


Outside of what i just mentioned. i saw so many people on various forums. pro-nato, pro-israeli and pro Russian trying to knit-pick about who would win and why.


The cold-hard truth is, Syria has been turned into an very hostile enviroment for any aircraft or airborne weapon by Russia's Electronic warfare that will jam everything. As a Pilot, you do not fly into area's that are dominated by ground and airforces containing multi-layered air defenses and electronic warfare dominance. Evasion just buy's you time, Fact is. as a living being, you can not match the G-forces an anti-air missile can pull that is operating out of pure homing-determination to detonate it's warhead at your aircraft.

If you want to execute strikes, it is going to cost you hardware and men to do it. not to mention the political rammifications of crossing the next red line of a nuclear superpower. Something Israel and NATO are not used to experience. and knowing their state and M.O not something they want to take their chances with in my opinon. NATO stands on it's last resources and personell as it is.

What israel have been doing is taking advantage of Russia tolerance/Rules of combat.. allowing
israel airforce to get close to Syria and freely bomb in Syria. Syria was allowed to fire back at Israel..
but only after they fired first.. So Israel planes were attacking Syria with glide bombs from 20 km of distance of the
target.. this is how they destroyed many important warehouses of Syrian army. Because this attacks happens
in seconds.. and Syria had to wait.. for Israel airforce to shoot first and then retaliate.. ( Syria was not firing at Israel planes ,when they were just flying across the Lebanon border..) So this leave just less than 10seconds of time for Syria to intercept Israel bombs..

If Rules of Combat change.. and Israel planes are shoot as soon they show up ,100km++ away from Syria.. and then you use an Airforce to lock on their planes and shoot missiles.. it will interrupt their ground attack operations and force them to take more distance from Syria.. beyond the range of their Glide Bombs and most of their missiles. If Syria target Israel planes at ~150km from Syria coast.. thats going to let them know ,the rules of combat are very different and that no longer they can take by surprise Syria and that they will not be allowed to even try an attack.
Forcing Israel airforce to fire from Long Distances.. beyond 150km.. is the way to go.. that will force them to use very obsolete slow cruise missiles ,that Syria and Russia will have plenty of time to intercept.

They can use these, but I'm sure Russia will use counter strategy & techniques to minimize the impact:

RF losses so far: https://riafan.ru/1104931-eks-glavkom-vks-rf-rasskazal-o-poteryakh-rossii-za-vremya-operacii-v-sirii

So, what it is saying is that they have decoys that will pretend to be attacking the S-400 system from up to 800km away, but the actual kill mechanism to defeat the SAMs is HARM with a range of 150km...

What is to stop the Syrians ignoring anything that does not enter Syrian airspace, and rely on jamming systems to defeat the radar and communications of anything that tries to...

HARMs can be defeated with TOR and Pantsir... that is what they were designed for, but with a range of only 150km anything that launches those ARMs is likely to get shot at too.

It will be interesting if they send S-300V4... first of all because that is a Russian Army system that is not for export, and secondly because they already sold a few components of the S-300V to the US in the 1990s, which paid for the S-300VM upgrade, which was later used to further upgrade the system to S-300V4 which is the current state of the art system in that branch of the family.

I suspect this system is for Russians and that S-300PMU2 are much more likely to be sent for the Syrians to use instead of the S-300V4.

I should also mention the IADS means that even if the US sends in MALD-X, if it gets close enough the Syrians can still fire off S-200s at them if they want to.

GarryB wrote:

HARMs can be defeated with TOR and Pantsir... that is what they were designed for, but with a range of only 150km anything that launches those ARMs is likely to get shot at too.

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And this is what i have been trying to warn people ..but failing miserably to get the message..
Syria is not officially at war with US or NATO.. .(at least not yet). So All that US needs to do ,is take
advantage of the Rules of Engagement of Syria and Russia...  just like Israel have been doing for so long
and fire missiles just 30km of the target.. using the illegal buffer zones US created inside Syria..

So any system of air defense that Russia sends to Syria.. whether is S-300 or S-400 or S-500 of S-900 that shot
down planes 1 million km away.. will be Totally useless.. if they are not used ,the way they were intended..
to keep enemy  away of their combat range..

Is like the question of having a powerful sniper rifle in Syria that can kill an enemy 5km away...
If you allow enemy to get very close to you.. then the whole sniper rifle will be Pointless is NOT USED..
Understand?

So unless Russia and Syria creates a no fly zone for NATO and Israel.. and tells them.. that their planes will be shot beyond the horizon , (50km++) if armed with bombs ,flying in the direction of Syria.. then NATO and Israel will be allowed to try , and try and try and keep trying and fire bombs at Syria , as close as ~20km of distance of the target. as Israel did in the last attack in latakkia...  So it will be impossible for Russia military air defenses to properly defend Syria , if their air defenses are used in a totally retarded way.. as a short air defense.. instead of very long range one.. So unless Russia don't plan to change the rules of engagement and warn NATO and Israel ,that they will return the fire at their planes if attack Syria again.. then Putin should not bother at all sending any air defense.. if will allow Syrian enemies to keep playing skirmish games.. instead of stopping them at any distance.as soon they in range of the missiles.. But for such policy ,Russia will have to create a very large no fly zone for NATO and Israel military planes ,that goes beyond far from Syrian borders..

So my prediction is NATO/Israel will use hundreds of kamikazi drones to test them.. with internal Artificial intelligence.. so they automatically can identify the target. or they will continue to use short range glide bombs..
taking advantage of Putin's tolerance to NATO and Israel attacks. Only a major war , or a clear no fly zone , or a return fire policy ,if you shoot ,we return the fire policy.. only that could help.. but if Russia don't shoot back , then their enemies will continue killing Russians..

WHat i think will happen?
Putin will ordern to shoot back.. but not before they destroy a couple of S-300 or kill more Russian soldiers..
Instead of not allowing them to even try..and shoot at hostile planes before they get in combat range of their
weapons. So S-300s performance in Syria will depend 95% on Russia military and Putin rules of combat ,of when they will fire missiles at israel or NATO and when not.. Ifthey allow their enemies to fly close to S-300s positions or Russian base ,then the system will have very short time to intercept anything..

Putin options..
1)No fly zone for military planes anywhere in Syria and shoot any military plane 100km to 200km away from Syria.
This is how S-300s are suppose to be used.. to keep the enemy away of their precision combat range ,this will force Syria enemies to use slow cruise missiles. easy to intercept. and very inaccurate. Will be very hard if not impossible for them to defeat S-300s
2)Or at very least Putin should warn ,that Russia will return fire at Israel or NATO if bomb again Syria..
This will make the S-300s vulnerable ,because they will be allowed to try from closer distance.. but they will have
to more farther if want to have a chance to escape the counter attack..

NATO and Israel are capable of training ISIS fighters ,into flying a combat plane.. and ask them to use an old F-15 as a suicide missile.. similar to WTC.. that planes were used as missiles.. and defacto allowing them to defeat an S-300 and kill Russian soldiers.. So Politics /Rules of Combat ,that Russia will allow or not ,will make as much difference if not more than technology and capabilities of any air defenses they deploy..

None of so called "experts videos".. about what S-300s can do or not.. or what can S-400s do..
take into account the Rules of Combat.  Because the rules in a real full scale war.. are very very different
from the rules of combat , in times ,war is not yet declared and enemies allowed to get very close to your borders..for spying on your defenses.

In a real war with Israel.. Russia will use S-400s and shoot Israeli planes as soon they take off from their bases..
and then with Iskander missiles deployed in Syria and Cruise missiles from Caspian sea and mediterranean sea ,
flattern israel military bases and destroy their planes.. Also Russia use their airforce to keep Israel airforce away from their positions..   In a real full scale war.. is when only Russia will be able to show the real performance
of S-300 and -400s. which both were designed for Very Long range combat.. to keep the enemy away of their combat range. So they not allowed to even try an attack .

Russia can also help in the defense ,with very strong Counter Electronics and Decoys (fake S-300s) deployed across all Syria. but a zero tolerance policy could stop the attacks , completely if Russia warns Israel of a major war if attack again Syria..

Its from a week ago the claim is a bit simplistic and optimistic but it shows the coverage.

SMM Syria
‏ @smmsyria
Sep 25

????That's how #Syrian airspace will possibly look like in two weeks according to updated info on deploying of #Russian S-300 Air Defense Systems. All the coastal part, borders with #Jordan, #Israel, #Lebanon and #Iraq are covered.

JohninMK wrote:Its from a week ago the claim is a bit simplistic and optimistic but it shows the coverage.

SMM Syria
‏ @smmsyria
Sep 25

????That's how #Syrian airspace will possibly look like in two weeks according to updated info on deploying of #Russian S-300 Air Defense Systems. All the coastal part, borders with #Jordan, #Israel, #Lebanon and #Iraq are covered.

S-300 and others will be more than 80km from the border for maximum self-protection response time. Exception possibly West Syria.

The S-300 systems come from Murmansk? From the 531 AD RGT?
You still have S-300PM? Was there an upgrade to PMU? At least yesterday with the sixth An-124.

Do you know what TorM1 or 2 is?
It would also have to be Russian units that are relocated.

Is like the question of having a powerful sniper rifle in Syria that can kill an enemy 5km away...
If you allow enemy to get very close to you.. then the whole sniper rifle will be Pointless is NOT USED..
Understand?

But the point is that now the Syrians will see any forces and if a plane comes into Syrian territory they can give it a warning and if it ignores the warning it can open fire and shoot it down before it gets too close.

The systems defending the S-300 probably wont shoot down enemy missiles until they are less than 10km from the S-300 systems anyway, so if a US or Israeli aircraft flys to 30km away from an S-300 system and launches HARM missiles to try to take down the S-300 the S-300 system would detect the launch and shoot down the aircraft, while Pantsir or TOR will shoot down the HARMs.

Vann7 wrote:

GarryB wrote:

HARMs can be defeated with TOR and Pantsir... that is what they were designed for, but with a range of only 150km anything that launches those ARMs is likely to get shot at too.

.

And this is what i have been trying to warn people ..but failing miserably to get the message..
Syria is not officially at war with US or NATO.. .(at least not yet). So All that US needs to do ,is take
advantage of the Rules of Engagement of Syria and Russia...  just like Israel have been doing for so long
and fire missiles just 30km of the target.. using the illegal buffer zones US created inside Syria..

So any system of air defense that Russia sends to Syria.. whether is S-300 or S-400 or S-500 of S-900 that shot
down planes 1 million km away.. will be Totally useless.. if they are not used ,the way they were intended..
to keep enemy  away of their combat range..

Is like the question of having a powerful sniper rifle in Syria that can kill an enemy 5km away...
If you allow enemy to get very close to you.. then the whole sniper rifle will be Pointless is NOT USED..
Understand?

So unless Russia and Syria creates a no fly zone for NATO and Israel.. and tells them.. that their planes will be shot beyond the horizon , (50km++) if armed with bombs ,flying in the direction of Syria.. then NATO and Israel will be allowed to try , and try and try and keep trying and fire bombs at Syria , as close as ~20km of distance of the target. as Israel did in the last attack in latakkia...  So it will be impossible for Russia military air defenses to properly defend Syria , if their air defenses are used in a totally retarded way.. as a short air defense.. instead of very long range one.. So unless Russia don't plan to change the rules of engagement and warn NATO and Israel ,that they will return the fire at their planes if attack Syria again.. then Putin should not bother at all sending any air defense.. if will allow Syrian enemies to keep playing skirmish games.. instead of stopping them at any distance.as soon they in range of the missiles.. But for such policy ,Russia will have to create a very large no fly zone for NATO and Israel military planes ,that goes beyond far from Syrian borders..

So my prediction is NATO/Israel will use hundreds of kamikazi drones to test them.. with internal Artificial intelligence.. so they automatically can identify the target. or they will continue to use short range glide bombs..
taking advantage of Putin's tolerance to NATO and Israel attacks. Only a major war , or a clear no fly zone , or a return fire policy ,if you shoot ,we return the fire policy.. only that could help.. but if Russia don't shoot back , then their enemies will continue killing Russians..

WHat i think will happen?
Putin will ordern to shoot back.. but not before they destroy a couple of S-300 or kill more Russian soldiers..
Instead of not allowing them to even try..and shoot at hostile planes before they get in combat range of their
weapons. So S-300s performance in Syria will depend 95% on Russia military and Putin rules of combat ,of when they will fire missiles at israel or NATO and when not.. Ifthey allow their enemies to fly close to S-300s positions or Russian base ,then the system will have very short time to intercept anything..

Putin options..
1)No fly zone for military planes anywhere in Syria and shoot any military plane 100km to 200km away from Syria.
This is how S-300s are suppose to be used.. to keep the enemy away of their precision combat range ,this will force Syria enemies to use slow cruise missiles. easy to intercept. and very inaccurate. Will be very hard if not impossible for them to defeat S-300s
2)Or at very least Putin should warn ,that Russia will return fire at Israel or NATO if bomb again Syria..
This will make the S-300s vulnerable ,because they will be allowed to try from closer distance.. but they will have
to more farther if want to have a chance to escape the counter attack..

NATO and Israel are capable of training ISIS fighters ,into flying a combat plane.. and ask them to use an old F-15 as a suicide missile.. similar to WTC.. that planes were used as missiles.. and defacto allowing them to defeat an S-300 and kill Russian soldiers.. So Politics /Rules of Combat ,that Russia will allow or not ,will make as much difference if not more than technology and capabilities of any air defenses they deploy..

None of so called "experts videos".. about what S-300s can do or not.. or what can S-400s do..
take into account the Rules of Combat.  Because the rules in a real full scale war.. are very very different
from the rules of combat , in times ,war is not yet declared and enemies allowed to get very close to your borders..for spying on your defenses.

In a real war with Israel.. Russia will use S-400s and shoot Israeli planes as soon they take off from their bases..
and then with Iskander missiles deployed in Syria and Cruise missiles from Caspian sea and mediterranean sea ,
flattern israel military bases and destroy their planes.. Also Russia use their airforce to keep Israel airforce away from their positions..   In a real full scale war.. is when only Russia will be able to show the real performance
of S-300 and -400s. which both were designed for Very Long range combat.. to keep the enemy away of their combat range. So they not allowed to even try an attack .

Russia can also help in the defense ,with very strong Counter Electronics and Decoys (fake S-300s)  deployed across all Syria. but a zero tolerance policy could stop the attacks , completely if Russia warns Israel of a major war if attack again Syria..

Syria has has NO such rules of engagement. They simply have not had any weapons that can effectively protect and secure their air space. if a US/Israeli plane fires a missile from 30 km outside syrian airspace into Syria, Syria is justified in shoot said plane down even if it has landed in Israel or on a US carrier if they *can* reach it. Deterrence is part of defence, if a plane has fired a weapon at Syria, Syria can shoot it down anywhere.

And if an Israeli or a 3rd country passenger plane is shot down by mistake in Israeli or intl. airspace, or derbies kill civilians on the ground, those countries would then be justified to bomb Syrian AD sites.
Thus, they won't be chasing them into Israeli airspace for their own good.

'49 PIECES OF HARDWARE’: SYRIA GETS S-300 MISSILE SYSTEM & MORE FROM RUSSIA IN WAKE OF IL-20 DOWNING

Published time: 2 Oct, 2018 17:44

The S-300 air defense system and dozens of additional hardware pieces have been delivered to the Syrian military to boost security of Russian personnel there, Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigu, told President Vladimir Putin.

“We have completed the delivery of the S-300 system,” Shoigu said Tuesday. The hardware supplied to Syria consisted of 49 pieces of military equipment, including radars, control vehicles and four launchers, he added.

A unified air defense control system in Syria will be completed by October 20, Shoigu told the Security Council. Russia will “prepare and train” the Syrian crews to operate the S-300 within three months.

DETAILS TO FOLLOW

https://www.rt.com/news/440152-russia-delivers-s300-syria/

chances are the RuAF is active as well near Lebanese airspace.

Good news, time for more deterrence.

These S-300V systems however need high ground to maximize its coverage. Still bit worried on low altitude penetration.