Karl Haushofer wrote:Russia agrees to pay Naftogaz $3 billion and is willing to continue use Ukraine as a transit country.
WTF RUSSIA!!!!??????!!!!!?????
WTF yourself. Russia has accommodated Germany's requests. Keeping Germany onside at this critical moment is way more valuable than 3 billion dollars. Acting like a turd will achieve Russia only pain. Now Russia comes off looking pragmatic and cannot be accused of blackmailing Europe, etc.
Clearly there is no intention to keep paying Kiev the $3 billion every year. It is a one-time transition agreement. By consolidating Nord Stream II, dealing with the Bulgarian sabotage of Turk Stream, Russia avoids supply crises and makes sure that its agenda succeeds.
Imagine situation where US leadership managed to stopped North Stream 2 project, Turkish Stream and transit through Ukraine, Poland and Belarus would follow replacing them all with freedom molecules. Now none of that will happen and Ukraine and Russia can in the meantime negotiate as per EU need substantially greater volume of gas transit to their and EU benefit. US must have been thinking it holds destiny of Russia gas revenue in its hands and now all seems lost. In best case scenario Russia can double its gas export to EU in comparison with just a few years back. Still we will see what will happen.
The sad thing is that if the US had won they would still have lost... the US has nothing like the capacity to supply their own needs let alone take on the requirements of Europe, but the interrupted and unreliable supplies would play a fine game of Havoc with european industry which largely relies on natural gas for energy... such problematic energy supply would have a very negative effect on EU economic growth and ultimately the gas they will be buying will still be cheaper Russian LNG that would get there quicker and still be rather cheaper than US stuff.
Effectively the US just failed to sabotage their european rivals, but will the europeans thank Russia for saving their production competitiveness... don't be silly... they will renew sanctions again.
Now we see the US is leaning heavily on the ship company laying the last part of Nord Stream II with threats of US sanctions on workers and assets of the company in the US... perhaps the Russian company that supplies rocket engines should form a company to complete the job... lets see those ban their own use of Russian engines... how bad to they want to sell natural gas to Europe?
Don't swallow the BS in this article. Gazprom does have a pipe laying ship and stated several times it would complete the project by itself if needed.
Actually this is probably good news, because if the Russians want to be bastards they can effectively impose penalties for not fulfilling the contract to build the pipelines... that is going to seriously cost this company big time and the Russians can save a lot of money on the construction costs...
Something it shows is that Russia can negotiate deals with pretty much any fruit cake... compared with ultimatums by the US and EU, it is amusing.
BTW for those worried about Russia paying Ukraine transit fees... those fees are included in costs... Russia doesn't pay these fees or these fines out of their own money, this is the customer (EU) paying for all of this at the end of the day...
The pipe did not lay down How to complete the Nord Stream-2 in conditions of sanctions
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4205007?from=main_3
In this case, Gazprom will have to complete the gas pipeline on its own. The company has its own pipe layer, Academic Chersky, which can lay pipes up to 1.5 meters in diameter, that is, it can lay pipes for Nord Stream-2, whose maximum diameter with concrete coating reaches 1.4 meters. The problem is that the vessel is in Nakhodka and even if it leaves the port in the near future, it will be able to arrive in the Baltic in about a month.
In addition, the company Mezhregiontruboprovodstroy (MRTS) with the Fortuna pipe-laying barge has already taken part in the construction of Nord Stream-2. In 2018, this ship laid the first 13 km of both pipelines in the territorial waters of Russia. The barge as a whole is designed to work in coastal waters, it is flat-bottomed, that is, more sensitive to sea waves and weather than Allseas sea vessels. Nevertheless, it is technically capable of laying the Nord Stream-2 pipes to a depth of 200 meters, which would be enough to complete the project. Unlike the Academician Chersky, the Fortuna barge is a couple of days from the place of possible work - in the German port of Mukran. Gazprom declined to comment, MRTS representative was unavailable on Saturday, Kommersant sent a request to the company.
Austin wrote:The pipe did not lay down How to complete the Nord Stream-2 in conditions of sanctions
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4205007?from=main_3
In this case, Gazprom will have to complete the gas pipeline on its own. The company has its own pipe layer, Academic Chersky, which can lay pipes up to 1.5 meters in diameter, that is, it can lay pipes for Nord Stream-2, whose maximum diameter with concrete coating reaches 1.4 meters. The problem is that the vessel is in Nakhodka and even if it leaves the port in the near future, it will be able to arrive in the Baltic in about a month.
In addition, the company Mezhregiontruboprovodstroy (MRTS) with the Fortuna pipe-laying barge has already taken part in the construction of Nord Stream-2. In 2018, this ship laid the first 13 km of both pipelines in the territorial waters of Russia. The barge as a whole is designed to work in coastal waters, it is flat-bottomed, that is, more sensitive to sea waves and weather than Allseas sea vessels. Nevertheless, it is technically capable of laying the Nord Stream-2 pipes to a depth of 200 meters, which would be enough to complete the project. Unlike the Academician Chersky, the Fortuna barge is a couple of days from the place of possible work - in the German port of Mukran. Gazprom declined to comment, MRTS representative was unavailable on Saturday, Kommersant sent a request to the company.
One month or three months makes no difference since Gazprom is signing a deal with Banderastan to extend gas transit.
So in other words, the company can actually get it done before sanctions take place so they wont be affected. Unless they cant get it done in a month.
American mafia tries to rule the world through coercion and terror. Scumbag losers. All their huffing and puffing will not stop Nord Stream II. And their Bulgarian buttlicks will not stop Turk Stream either.
Note how the US deciders are assuming that Russia needs natural gas exports to the EU to grow. That is the level of detachment from reality and why these losers keep trying new sanctions and failing to get what they want.
Note how the US deciders are assuming that Russia needs natural gas exports to the EU to grow. That is the level of detachment from reality and why these losers keep trying new sanctions and failing to get what they want.
I say this is good. They are incapable of thinking outside of the box or understanding Russia, that this will just allow them to concentrate on trying to hurt russia where it wont hurt them.
Anyway, they cant stop turkstream since turkstream is finished and second part of it is being worked on (southern Europe) and Nord Stream 2 is almost finished. With Power of Siberia finished too and major LNG plants already operational, Russia is in a very strong position for decades to come.
Last I also read, Russias domestic demand for gas is drastically increasing. Energy and heating in various regions is quite expensive and Putin has demanded countless of times that gasification of various Russian regions must be done. Only reason Gazprom hasn't done it yet is because they want to make their money for export. So instead I believe other companies like Novatek and smaller gas companies should take up the task so they can make their fortune in domestic consumption.
The construction of Nord Stream 2 (NS2) has been a rollercoaster of a project with many ups and downs for both its proponents and opponents. On Friday, Trump approved sanctions on companies involved in the construction of the project. The move by Washington has been strongly condemned by both Germany and Russia, who see the sanctions as evidence of the Trump administration interfering with their internal affairs.
The sanctions mean that the visas of employees can be revoked and assets can be frozen. Allseas, a Dutch-Swiss private company, is going to be significantly affected because it owns considerable assets in the U.S. and the specialized nature of its operations makes it essential for the project.
Washington’s risky game
The NS2 sanctions are one of the few topics about which both Democrats and Republicans can agree on. President Trump’s quick response regarding the signing into law of the sanctions bill shows his intention to be tough with Russia. That toughness is partly to do with the Democrats’ accusation of Moscow’s rigging of the 2016 Presidential Election with the collusion of Trump’s campaign team.
The current administration's 'America First' policy and tough stance regarding alleged trade disadvantages has put the U.S. on a collision course with trading partners. But Washington's newest sanctions on NS2 are arguably the most risky yet with the potential of upending its relationship with a crucial ally.
The losers
Allseas announced, shortly after the imposition of sanctions, that it is suspending construction activities and wait for further information on the U.S.' intentions. Although the administration has 60 days to identify the companies working on the pipeline before it imposes punitive restrictions, the Dutch-Swiss company decided to act preventively. This means that it is uncertain when NS2 will be completed. It is companies like Allseas who are currently set to suffer most from Friday’s sanctions.
According to Gazprom, costs have already ballooned due to Denmark’s foot-dragging concerning approval for activities in its territorial waters. The current suspension could increase the financial burden even more. To the detriment of Gazprom and customers in northwestern Europe who will now need to find alternative sources of natural gas on the international market to replace expected supply from Russia.
Another important loser, paradoxically, is the U.S. itself. Relations between the U.S. and the EU are at a historic low and a trade war between the two may soon be upon us. Washington’s aggressive policy towards Europe under the current regime has already led to a more assertive European foreign policy and even talks of a European army. Although unlikely in the short to medium term, the fact that it is being discussed at all shows how U.S.-European relations have deteriorated.
Even Brussels, which at the start of 2019 was trying to obstruct NS2’s construction, has joined the chorus of criticism being leveled at Washington. According to EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan, "Brussels opposes the imposition of sanctions against any EU companies conducting legitimate business."
The unexpected winner
Besides Ukraine, who risked being circumvented by NS2 and Turk Stream, an unlikely country stands to benefit from the sanctions. While it may sound confusing, Russia is a beneficiary of the suspended activities on the construction of Gazprom's most important project. While it costs Moscow hundreds of millions in lost income and additional investments, the country is benefitting on a geostrategic and political level.
For a mere $9.5 billion, NS2’s price tag, Moscow has unintentionally managed to drive another wedge between key Western allies. Berlin is furious about the sanctions and its already fraught relations with Washington are set to escalate even further. According to German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, the American sanctions amount to “interference in autonomous decisions taken in Europe.”
How the Nord Stream 2 saga will end
What is certain is that NS2 will be completed eventually. Most of the work on the 1,230 kilometer or 765 mile long pipeline has already been finished. Also, the vast majority of the $9.5 billion in investments have already been spent. The biggest problem is that Allseas is one of the few companies in the world with the specialized vessels to weld, test, and drop the pipes to the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
Technically, there are three possibilities for how this saga could develop. The first scenario would see construction activities delayed for an unspecified amount of time, before a breakthrough allows NS2 to be finished. The deadlock could be breached by political means or technical assistance from different suppliers.
In the second scenario, NS2's completion is made impossible after which construction is abandoned entirely. This is the most unlikely scenario.
The final scenario would see Trump start a trade war with the EU and use NS2 as a bargaining chip. Washington may offer a potential sanctions waiver to Allseas to extract more concessions from the EU and Germany. In this scenario, NS2’s competition would only come after the EU-U.S. trade war is brought to an end.
Uncertainty ahead
The next step in this saga is for Brussels and Berlin to send a diplomatic mission to Washington to find ways out of the current crisis. Whoever wins in the ongoing battle concerning NS2, the situation is a win-win for Moscow.
Russia will finnish NS2 with its own ship Fortuna, which was laying NS2 pipe in Russian waters and is already in region. Anyway, Allseas will have to pay penalties to Gasprom, because they didn't do their obligations from contract as well as extra costs.
Ultimately the costs will be paid by the users of the gas, though I would rewrite the contract to reduce the fees Denmark receives to honour their attempt to delay the pipeline, just to cover the extra costs incurred.
The EU customers especially German have been the least effective and telling the US where to go, while benefiting most from the pipeline that they desperately need to cover future growth in gas requirements for German industry now that they are dropping nuclear and coal...
I know that there are at least 2 or 3 russian ships that can lay pipes but... there is a subsidiary of Gazprom that owns a few satellites and earns money from selling services to other companies working in the Arctic so why does Gazprom not own a company that has the capacity to build a pipeline like Nord Stream II on it´s own? Should be a useful asset for the largest gas company in the world.
Hole wrote:I know that there are at least 2 or 3 russian ships that can lay pipes but... there is a subsidiary of Gazprom that owns a few satellites and earns money from selling services to other companies working in the Arctic so why does Gazprom not own a company that has the capacity to build a pipeline like Nord Stream II on it´s own? Should be a useful asset for the largest gas company in the world.
Russia needs to form a domestic company that will rival Allseas in building undersea pipelines across developing countries and put them out of business. I used the term developing because most countries with the “Developed” designation are US lackeys that will not hesitate to double cross their business partners to please the Yanks.
Trump's signing the 2020 NDAA into law on Friday, and with it, sanctions targeting European and Russian companies laying the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, had the immediate impact of forcing a work stoppage over the weekend as Allseas, the Swiss company that is Nord Stream’s main contractor, confirmed its workers, as well as partner contractors, have laid down their tools.
The new US punitive measures specifically target companies and their executives assembling the pipeline, including the very ships laying the pipeline on the controversial 760-mile project that would allow Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany and is expected to come online within the next year. Despite Allseas set to pull out its fleet of pipe-laying ships, Russia and Germany are vowing to move forward unimpeded, per the WSJ:
Its ships Solitaire and Pioneering Spirit, the largest construction vessel in the world, will remain in the area but are no longer laying the pipes, a spokesman for Allseas said. He added that as of Thursday, when work ceased, the project was about one month from being completed.
Jens D. Mueller, a spokesman for Nord Stream 2’s parent company, said that the pipeline would be finished despite Allseas pulling out its fleet.
And Russia is now hitting back, first by promising Washington will not impede the project, and further with reports that Moscow is drawing up retaliatory sanctions against the US, while not citing specifics.
Majority stakeholder Gazprom has indicated it's already taken measures to complete the project while circumventing the US measures. The WSJ continues:
In preparation for the sanctions, Gazprom has retrofitted its own ships as well as ships belonging to Russian contractors that don’t do business outside Russia and would therefore be immune to American sanctions, according to one official of the company who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
One contractor already involved in the project is the Russian subsea-pipeline construction firm MRTS JSC, a company that operates ships which could be used to complete the pipeline, according to Gazprom.
A Russian Foreign Ministry statement described what it claims is in part an attempt by Washington to force its pricey liquefied gas on Europe: “As a result, Europeans will lose on all fronts.”
The statement added: “Washington decided that it shouldn’t spare anyone, even its closest allies in NATO, for the sake of its geopolitical ambitions and commercial profit.”
Germany, meanwhile, is also standing strongly against what its leaders have called Trump's "meddling" in Europe's energy independence. Over the weekend German finance minister Olaf Scholz slammed the US legislation as marking “serious interference in Germany and Europe’s internal affairs and our own sovereignty”.
“We object to them in the strongest terms,” he told a German television broadcaster, and added that the measures were “incomprehensible and improper for friends that are also linked by our common membership of NATO.”
This in the face of the US ambassador to Berlin, Richard Grenell, provocatively touting the sanctions as “extremely pro-European” in comments made in the wake of Trump's signing them into law on Friday. He cited anecdotal evidence to say he had “hearing from European diplomats all day today thanking me for taking such action.”
“The US policy is for European diversification and making sure that there are multiple sources [of energy],” he added. And invoking the US position that it is Moscow that seeks to stymie European energy independence, he warned against a scenario in which “one country or source has the ability to create undue leverage over Europe” — in reference to the nearly $10BN Nord Stream 2 project.
By all accounts, however, even reportedly by some within Trump's own administration, it is indeed "too little too late" — as a Bloomberg report recently made clear, citing anonymous administration officials.
Don't know about you guys, but I am quite looking forward to see what the Russian counter sanctions will be.... this is almost fun...
A Russian company gets some experience and real work laying gas pipelines instead of a non-Russian company doing the work... so tick for Russia there... likely other european companies will lose their bottle and pull out of the deal because they are cowards with no spines, but Germany still needs the gas so they will miss out of the profits there too... so a big cross for EU companies, but not for Russia...
The US ends up looking like the bully it is... and even if somehow they won... they don't have the capacity to supply Europes current needs let alone its future needs, so Russia is going to be selling them gas anyway... they will just have to pay more for it... the extra costs for the customer cover the extra costs for Russia to liquify and ship the stuff, so it really does not hurt Russia... what it does mean in the short term is that they need to make some more gas tanker ships and liquification plants, but low temperatures actually make that easier and cheaper, so a few liquifaction plants in the far north near a port would be ideal for them... they can pump the gas there and the liquify it and put it directly on ships... it can go to Germany... but it could equally go anywhere else on the planet now if they want so they can sell to all of Americas customers because they can do it cheaper... the EU pays more for gas, which increases their production costs to make them less competitive than Russia, the US burns relations with the EU and creates a Russian capability to service their existing customers too and undercut them world wide, Russia misses out on cheap gas piped direct to europe but gets to sell the gas anyway and can now send to any country around the world by ship and still offer prices less than the US...
Given the ludicrous sanctions imposed by the self-declared "exceptional" yanquis, Russia needs to hit them hard. The following companies should be told to take a hike out of Russia within one month:
Johnson and Johnson Boeing Ford PepsiCo Phillip Morris McDonald's Apple Cisco Alcoa Bristol-Myers Squibb Citibank Dell Corning John Deere Kimberly-Clark Pfizer Walt Disney Mastercard Visa Rand Otis
I'm not sure if forum members will agree with me or not but US society is broken. Broken families, individuals, pathological relationships, lonely people, etc., in the middle of all that extreme hedonism.
An analysis of the potential counter-sanctions by Russia against the USA in the wake of its "sanctions from Hell" attack on Nord Stream II. The important part is that the US leadership and elites are full bore delusional idiots (my words) since they actually proceed from the notion that the US can pimp its LNG to the EU after pushing Russia out of the market. This is pure delusion since the US has nowhere near 150+ billion cubic meters of natural gas excess for such exports. In 2018 the USA imported 80 bcm from Canada and export a few bcm to Mexico since Mexico is experiencing natural decline (i.e. its demand for imports will increase with time). The US is a net importer of natural gas.
Some idiots will claim that the US has vast untapped natural gas capacity. Where? All of the non-conventional plays such as the Marcellus are being exploited with fracking at full bore. There is no equivalent of the Bazhenov formation that is yet to be developed that would allow the USA to bring on stream 150 bcm/year of new export capacity (it has none now and I will assume that it continues to import Canadian gas even if for re-export).
Forecasters predicting gluts of tight gas are smoking crack.
There is a rank amateur mistake in the forecasts: they assume conventional production dynamics from fracked wells. But tight gas is fundamentally distinct from conventional gas. Due to the much lower rock pore volume (hence the need for fracking) there is actually much less gas resource in a given volume of source rock. That's why it is called tight, duh. Unlike conventional gas wells, tight gas wells lack the fat tail distributions in production. Hence the mismatch between the red actual production line and the forecast slower decline in the figure above. Tight gas wells have to be drilled (fracked) with much higher frequency than conventional gas wells. That adds cost to the extraction and reflects the short life of tight gas wells. There ain't no free lunch.
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ban their own use of Russian engines... how bad to they want to sell natural gas to Europe?
PhSt
