Abkhazia - S.Ossetia vs Georgia Situation

AFAIK the exercise was planned years before and had nothing to do with the tensions at the time.

They certainly benefited from them but AFAIK the exercise ended about 8 days before the conflict and equipment was returned and soldiers stood down.

I would think the whole purpose behind the Georgian attack was surprise and if the 58th Army was standing ready for action they never would have dared.

The speed of reaction by the Russian forces shocked and impressed the west and I would think it was western information the georgians used in their planning of the attack... like the west the georgians expected a much longer reaction time that would have allowed them more time to complete their operation and consolidate their position in South Ossetia and therefore take defacto control before Russia could react.

It further pours water on the claim by the Georgians that they detected Russian invasion units entering the tunnel into SO on the morning and were in the capital city the next day shelling it... how did they mobilise so fast?

And the obvious answer is that they had been planning this for months if not years.

What the western media ignore is that Georgian planning probably started because of the Russian reaction to the Kosovo declaration of independence.

Russia opened its borders to South Ossetia and Abkhazia when Kosovo declared independence so both regions were no longer completely dependent on Georgia to exist. Saakashvili clearly realised he could either watch them drift away and really become independent, or use force and sieze them back.

The only chance for that is with his new NATO trained army and surprise.

He was very wrong.

The problem is not Georgia... it is its current leader.

There were some units in North Ossetia just for the contingency, but most of the 58th was certainly not prepared to move at the minute.

Post Kavkaz 2008 they kept 2 reinforced motorized rifle battalions neat the South Ossetian border.
These were from the 693rd and 135th Motorized Rifle Regiments.

How Georgia miscalculated the Russian response is a mystery. And even if they didn't count on Russia to intervene- why bombard the Peacekeepers barracks then? That guaranteed response, even ignoring the rest of the situation.

Maybe, but that doesn't explain the scale of the Georgian miscalculation. It is obvious that at least in part they counted on Western support in some form to stop Russian intervention. Also they clearly thought they would sweep SO forces and take the area before Russians could come in. They failed badly in the latter...but....
my question is WHY bombard the peacekeepers? They knew 100% where they were. They knew Russia would have a great reason to come in, and would have to, given the Russian public reaction, to react to its men getting killed. So what does that leave us? The Georgian leadership is truly retarded? Or maybe their forces were acting on their own, which shows a critical lack in coordination.

Also Mcain was no administration, just a senator. Surely the Georgian leadership knew the limit of such promises of help. Saaaka does love to flaunt his Western education and all.

I think Saakashvili believed his own propaganda that the Russians would not be able to mobilise quickly enough and his new troops trained with NATO C4IR stuff and new western weapons would steamroller the South Ossetians.

It has been clear in the past that the South Ossetians were the weaker faction and that if the Georgians had a chance of taking either province back by force it was clearly the SO territory.

This was reinforced when the Abkhazians took the intiative and invaded Georgia and took back some contested territories while the Russian forces watched on.

Overall I think he over estimated the value of surprise, the skills and abilities of his forces and grossly underestimated the ability and resolve of the Russians.

And yes, this is all about oil... access to Caspian Sea oil from a source that bypasses Russia.

Russia Plans to Flatten Georgia if Israel Attacks Iran

TEHRAN (FNA)- Russia is building up forces in the Caucasus region, preparing to protect its interests in case Israel attacks Iran with the help of the United States, the western media said.

GenerationalDynamics.com said the Russian military believes that when the US goes to war with Iran, it may deploy forces in friendly Georgia and warships in the Caspian Sea with the possible help of Azerbaijan.

Hence, Russia is deploying guided anti-ship missiles on the Caspian shore in preparation, and is forming an offensive spearhead force, heavily armed with modern long-range weapons, it added.

In the case of an Iranian war, it's expected that the Russian spearhead will be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of US bases in the region, to link up with the troops in Armenia, and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and, other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets, the website added.

By one swift military strike Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states, for the first time since the Soviet Union dissolved, it said.

I rather doubt that.

Just like the US was all talk during the Russian cleanup operations in SO and Abkhazia, I rather expect that Russia will stay out of any confrontation between Iran and the US.

Iran is not a huge Russian client like say India is, so I really don't think the Russians will risk too much in their defence directly.

If Iran declared that it wanted a complete overhaul of its air force and air defence network and wanted to buy significant amounts of Russian military equipment and produce in Iran Mig-35s and Su-30s and to locally produce TOR SAM systems I would think the Russians would take a more active approach, but for the sake of the sale of a few S-300 systems it really isn't worth it... not that Russia has any ill will towards Iran, it is just that unlike during the cold war they wont just defend a country just because they are anti US or because the US is anti them.

Syria on the other hand has strategic value to Russia with its port of Tartus and I think they will be happy to send ships there as a show of solidarity because the port is useful to them.

Regarding attacks on Georgia in case Israel attacks Iran... I think it is unlikely, though an S-400 system operating in North Ossetia could certainly deal with aircraft taking off from Georgia on their way to targets in Iran... I am sure the Iranian air force would not take kindly to Georgia allowing Israeli strikes to be based from their territory and I rather doubt that Russia would lift a finger to stop Iranian attacks on Georgia... Which I would guess would target both airfields and US owned pipelines....

Except the fly in the ointment... what the heck does Russia want with Georgia?

Russia is not an imperial power any more and part of the benefit of that is not having to carry screwed up neighbours kicking and screaming into the 21 st Century.

Georgia is currently a backwards shthole that needs a lot of investment and support to get on its feet... they are currently getting that from the west in return for oil and likely the added benefit of turning another country against Russia... divide and conquer after all.

A Russian invasion of Georgia however would have a very negative impact on Russias position in the world... it can't afford to be tarnished with the same brush the US is, because it doesn't have the global clout and money and power the US has. Having Americas reputation but none of its powers would be very devastating to the future of Russias growth.

Russia needs to appear to be a viable alternative to the West and the US... its drive to upgrade and update and become a centre for growth and technology offers non aligned countries... and even aligned countries disaffected with the western hierarchy an alternative. China will offer the same in a few years time too and Russia will survive even if it only gets a tiny fraction of that market, but the bigger its market share the better off it will be... and in my humble opinion the better off their clients will be too.

If I hated the US I would suggest the best thing they could do is attack Iran because there is almost no chance they will hit everything they need to hit and the results will range from bad to terrible for the West and excellent to incredible for the oil prices for Russia.

The real problem I see is that in the economic collapse created by expensive energy in the US they might do something stupid like try to take the world with them.

Chiefs,

Georgia would not be used as a base to lauch attacks against Iran because they would not want to antagonise Russia. If this occurs russia would pursue Regime change in tibilisi as Moscow will see Georgia as a threat to national secuirty as Nato could use it to strike within the russian federation and its allies.Additionally Georgia is not an ally and i dont think Suckas$vhilli would be will to "trust nato for protection." He is a tyrant and all his goal is like all tyrants before him is to stay in power. When they get power they cant have enough. Azeri bases will be more ployable as from georgia Armenian airspace will be an preventative factor also. They also have Turkey even though turkey opposes it. I'm sure if turkey gets rewards that outweigh the cost to a large extent will give in being a Nato member and all. Nato got lots of assests, Iraq, Saudi Arabia , carrier groups etc...Its Israel that lacks assests. Israeli use of georgian airspace is silly.

Now due to the volatility of the caspian, caucasus and middle east region russia have babied the troops in these regions with the newest equipment, gear , funding and training regiment. These brigades are seen as high priority and for rapid reaction and are man by contract soldiers. Eg the 31st separate brigade and the 76th. I dont see the armies ground forces deploying overseas. However VDV will be the most likely candidate for any overseas operations and will be supported by VDV trained regiments

Russia Is Massing Troops On Iran's Northern Border And Waiting For A Western Attack

Posted by truther on April 10, 2012 . The Russian military anticipates that an attack will occur on Iran by the summer and has developed an action plan to move Russian troops through neighboring Georgia to stage in Armenia, which borders on the Islamic republic, according to informed Russian sources.

Russian Security Council head Viktor Ozerov said that Russian General Military Headquarters has prepared an action plan in the event of an attack on Iran.

Dmitry Rogozin, who recently was the Russian ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, warned against an attack on Iran.

"Iran is our neighbor," Rogozin said. "If Iran is involved in any military action, it's a direct threat to our security." Rogozin now is the deputy Russian prime minister and is regarded as anti-Western. He oversees Russia's defense sector.

Russian Defense Ministry sources say that the Russian military doesn't believe that Israel has sufficient military assets to defeat Iranian defenses and further believes that U.S. military action will be necessary.

The implication of preparing to move Russian troops not only is to protect its own vital regional interests but possibly to assist Iran in the event of such an attack. Sources add that a Russian military buildup in the region could result in the Russian military potentially engaging Israeli forces, U.S. forces, or both.

Informed sources say that the Russians have warned of "unpredictable consequences" in the event Iran is attacked, with some Russians saying that the Russian military will take part in the possible war because it would threaten its vital interests in the region.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper has quoted a Russian military source as saying that the situation forming around Syria and Iran "causes Russia to expedite the course of improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions."

This latest information comes from a series of reports and leaks from official Russian spokesmen and government news agencies who say that an Israeli attack is all but certain by the summer.

Because of the impact on Russian vital interests in the region, sources say that Russian preparations for such an attack began two years ago when Russian Military Base 102 in Gyumri, Armenia, was modernized. It is said to occupy a major geopolitical position in the region.

Families of Russian servicemen from the Russian base at Gyumri in Armenia close to the borders of Georgia and Turkey already have been evacuated, Russian sources say.

"Military Base 102 is a key point, Russia's outpost in the South Caucasus," a Russian military source told the newspaper. "It occupies a very important geopolitical position, but the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this situation."

With Vladimir Putin returning to the Russian presidency, the prospect that he again would order an attack on Georgia as he did in August 2008 also has become a possibility, these informed sources say.

The Russians believe that Georgia would cooperate with the United States in blocking any supplies from reaching Military Base 102, which now is supplied primarily by air. Right now, Georgia blocks the only land transportation route through which Russian military supplies could travel.

Fuel for the Russian base in Armenia comes from Iran. Russian officials believe this border crossing may be closed in the event of a war.

"Possibly, it will be necessary to use military means to breach the Georgian transport blockade and establish transport corridors leading into Armenia," according to Yury Netkachev, former deputy commander of Russian forces in Transcaucasia. Geography of the region suggests that any such supply corridor would have to go through the middle of Georgia approaching Georgia's capital of Tbilisi given the roads and topography of the country.

In September, the Russian military plans to hold its annual military exercises called Kavkaz 2012. However, informed Russian sources say that preparations and deployments of military equipment and personnel already have begun in anticipation of a possible war with Iran.

These sources report that new command and control equipment has been deployed in the region capable of using the Russian GPS system, GLONASS for targeting information.

"The air force in the South Military District is reported to have been rearmed almost 100 percent with new jets and helicopters," according to regional expert Pavel Felgenhauer of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

In 2008, Felgenhauer pointed out, Kavkaz 2008 maneuvers allowed the Russian military to covertly deploy forces that successfully invaded Georgia in August of that year.

Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov already has announced that new Spetznaz, or Special Forces units, will be deployed in Stavropol and Kislovodsk, which are located in the North Caucasian regions.

Russian sources say that the Russian military believes that if the U.S. goes to war with Iran, it may deploy forces into Georgia and warships in the Caspian Sea with the possible help of Azerbaijan, which since has stated that it will not allow its territory to be used by Israel to launch an attack on neighboring Iran.

There had been speculation that given the improved relations between Israel and Azerbaijan, the Jewish state may use bases from which to launch air attacks on neighboring Iran's nuclear sites. Israel recently agreed to sell Azerbaijan $1.6 billion in military equipment.

A further irritant to Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili is the prospect that Russian assault airborne troops, or VDV units, with helicopters could be moved into Georgia's two breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These two provinces were taken by the Russian military during the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war. Initially they were declared by Moscow to be independent countries, but now the Kremlin is indicating they may be annexed to Russia.

Similarly, Lt. General Vladimir Shamanov, commander of the VDV, has announced that Russian troops in Armenia will be reinforced by paratroopers, along with attack and transport helicopters.

"The Russian spearhead (from the Transcaucasia region) may be ordered to strike south to prevent the presumed deployment of U.S. bases in Transcaucasia, to link up with the troops in Armenia and take over the South Caucasus energy corridor along which Azeri, Turkmen and other Caspian natural gas and oil may reach European markets," Felgenhauer said.

"By one swift military strike, Russia may ensure control of all the Caucasus and the Caspian states that were its former realm, establishing a fiat accompli the West, too preoccupied with Iran, would not reverse," he said.

"At the same time, a small victorious war would unite the Russian nation behind the Kremlin, allowing it to crush the remnants of the prodemocracy movement 'for fair elections,' and as a final bonus, Russia's military action could perhaps finally destroy the Saakashvili regime."

Putin has made no secret that he despises Saakashvili and with his return to the presidency, he may consider taking out the Georgian president as unfinished business. Just as in 2008, Putin will not have much to worry about if he sends Russian troops into Georgia, since there was muted reaction from the U.S. and the European countries to the Russian invasion and subsequent occupation.

In 2008, Felgenhauer pointed out, Kavkaz 2008 maneuvers allowed the Russian military to covertly deploy forces that successfully invaded Georgia in August of that year.

Felgenhauer claimed before the conflict in 8 8 8 that the Georgian military with its NATO training and equipment would wipe the floor with a Russian force...

I have no respect for this person or anything he says.

according to regional expert Pavel Felgenhauer of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation.

The Jamestown foundation is an extreme right wing republican organisation that thinks Reagan was a bit soft on commies, that thinks all Russians are evil and stupid and supremely dangerous to the merican way of life.

I mean just read it... Putin might take the chance to finish the job to get rid of Saakashvili?

Sounds like regime change... which is clearly an American thing and not a Russian thing.

That is the amusing thing... they make their enemies look evil by projecting on their enemies their own actions they know are evil in the hopes that no one notices...

Good old Pasha, I havn't heard much about him lately, he has been so thoroughly discredited in Russia after the Georgia fiasco.

Kysusha wrote:

TR1 wrote:Good old Pasha, I havn't heard much about him lately, he has been so thoroughly discredited in Russia after the Georgia fiasco.

What crap about “discrediting” – this is the throwaway line of the Joos to silence informed discussion on their lies!

I don’t need to be told that one or other source is discredited – I can make up my own mind about such issues and do so by reading what people have to say and then considering the reality of their argument. It would appear that you have to be told what to read!

Following your rationale, I would never have ready any of David Irving’s great works. I suppose too, even the King James Version is in your opinion “discredited too” as there have been many attempts to label it so in the past.

Uh, I am not gonna lie, I have NO clue what this rant is about. Joos? what?

I am talking about Felgenhaur, and how even though everyone with half a set of brains knew he was an idiot with no credentials, pre 8-8-8 war he was referenced a lot in typical Russia critiquing pieces. Post war, and because of some embarrassing forum discussion that he was in, he largely dissapeared from being referenced. What are you rambling about?

Lets ignore the article and look at real history.

Putin has had plenty of opportunity to go for regime change in lots of places... the reality is that Putin doesn't want to add to Russias empire... because he recognises what a drag Georgia would be on Russia even if they did roll over and accept Russian occupation.

Most of the former Soviet 'stans have at one point or another asked to join Russia in some sort of federation or union because I suspect they prefer Russia rule to their own dictatorships and Russia has rejected them every time.

Claiming Putin will step in and take Georgia when given the opportunity is bunk and holds no weight.

The Russians are not amassing forces anywhere... it is called an exercise and is quite normal.

We realise that US "exercises" in Georgia were all about planning their attack on South Ossetia but the Russians don't operate like that. They train to prepare to react to acts of aggression... not to perpetrate them.

Forget the vernacular in which it is written – consider the issues.

The issues are that Iran has not bought that much from Russia and is not an enormous client and friend.

Syria is rather more important to Russia because of Tartus, but as far as Russia is concerned Iran is a source of employment regarding perhaps a dozen or more nuclear power stations but in overall trade they are not indispensable,

Syria on the other hand is critical to Russian naval operations in the med and further afield.

Besides if the US and Europe or Israel do decide to attack Iran it will be so bad for the US and Europe and/or Israel that the Russians might find some way to benefit... for a start oil prices will rise, and countries around the world will buy more arms...

interesting developments in Abkhazia...

Up to 5,000 anti-government demonstrators have gathered in Sukhum, Abkhazia to demand reforms and the resignation of the president and government of the partially-recognized republic in the South Caucasus.
Tuesday's rally in the center of the republic’s capital was organized by a united opposition which claims the government's actions could ruin the country.
“The country is drifting as it leans only on external aid, having neither understanding nor a plan for future development,” said Vitaly Gabnia, chair of Arua veterans organization, as quoted by local news portal Nyzhnaya Gazeta.
“A country cannot be sovereign when two-thirds of its budget is formed by another state’s subsidies,” he added, referring to Russia’s financial assistance to the republic.

Not clear if this is a coup situation or what yet, it seems both sides are claiming to be in power... Possibly the opposition got President to agree to dismiss government?
I think regardless of who ends up in power, a coup situation like Ukraine should be avoided, Russia should be able to work with all sides there.

Certainly in Abkhazia as well as S Ossetia, alot of Russian aid has been squandered thru corruption...
That ultimately doesn't really benefit Russia, but these are "independent countries" so what is Russia supposed to do?
Changing leadership is one thing, but if they are serious about also moving away from Russia, going back to Georgia seems the only option.

Honestly, I don't see that being against Russia either, since it would be returning alot of most pro-Russian voters to Georgian body politic,
voters that even if many of them were jaded by how things turned out, would ultimately feel positive towards Russian support for their independence.
Similar for S Ossetia which is even less viable as an independent country (and I even read that most Ossetians in Georgia live outside S Ossetia).
Although returning to Georgia is not really popular at all, so simply a change of government that still works with Russia is just as likely.
This is all happening in a scenario in Georgia that seems to be moving mostly back towards Russia's camp and Eurasian Union, albeit I'm sure NATO is trying it's bestest.

Opposition and Abkhazian president fail to reach an agreement
News | 28.05.2014 | 00:03

Abkhazia’s opposition leaders and President Alexander Ankvab have failed to reach an agreement after more than an hour of talks, an opposition leader, Raul Khadzhimba, the head of the Forum of People’s Unity, said as he came out to meet his supporters.

Earlier on Tuesday, thousands of opposition representatives gathered outside the presidential administration building demanding the resignation of the Abkhazian president and government. They tried to storm the building without waiting for the end of talks with the Abkhazina president. Several protesters were injured.

“But that does not mean that we will continue seeking our requirements by force,” Khadzhimba said, demanding his supporters to be patient.

Late in April, representatives of the Coordination Council of Opposition Parties and public organizations of Abkhazia demanded that the president dismiss the Cabinet of Ministers and work out a package of amendments to the Constitution on transition of some presidential powers to the country’s parliament and government as well as to dismiss the chief prosecutor and the heads of administrations of several districts.

Alexander Ankvab considers such ultimatums to be unacceptable and unproductive.

ITAR-TASS

I am not familiar with Abkhazian history, but I suspect based on its name that South Ossetia was once part of North Ossetia... the latter being part of the Russian federation. How or why they split is unknown to me, but the speed to which the North Ossetians volunteered to assist them suggests some sort of kinship that is likely not also present with Georgia.

We need to keep in mind that Ossetia is the weakest region that Georgia attacked first likely in hope of a quick easy victory. AFAIK Abkhazia took territory they considered theirs largely on their own in the confusion and were much better able to fight and operate on their own than the South Ossetians.

As far as the future for both regions it sounds like this opposition group is trying to turn them in the correct direction as a more self sufficient region that can look after its own affairs.

Who is to say how big or how small a country should be... Lots of Australians think New Zealand should become part of Australia and use Australian money... we don't tend to see it that way even though Australia never attacked us... except on the Rugby fields and Cricket grounds of both countries...

From my readings, S Ossetia was never part of a unified kingdom/etc with N Ossetia, it IS the same people/ethnos,
but since they migrated south of the mountains into the Georgian Kingdom (starting in 17th C. and continuing),
they have never had independent political unity with N Ossetians, outside of Georgian sovereignty,
although I can't truly say how the area was ruled when the whole region was ruled under the Russian Empire...
Not that that changes the validity of S Ossetian response to post-Soviet Georgian repression (the USSR largely favoring Georgians anyways),
most peoples on Earth probably moved into the territory of some existing state and later achieved self-determination.

Abkhazia has more of an independent historical-sovereign identity, and also more size and coastline better suited to independence.
I hope you didn't take my comment as suggesting that Abkhazia COULDN'T be an independent country, I believe it can (and IS),
but real independence is pragmatic: the idea of independence while being hostile to Russia and Georgia is absurd.
Getting rid of corruption and pursuing economic development neutrally with any partners is a fine course for them to take.
To fully achieve their potential as independent nation, pragmatically, they do need to come to an agreement with Georgia (recognizing them).
(not only for ties with Georgia itself, although that helps, but because international recognition/investment would follow Georgia)
I mentioned federation scenarios just because that seems to most plausible thing Georgia would agree to,
in the lack of that, their "independence" recognized only by Russia (essentially) means they are not truly independent.
(although that status SHOULDN'T conflict with getting rid of local corruption, and developing themselves as best as they can)

The question with these developments is not only how they appear on the surface, but what other countries may be manipulating them.
That doesn't really change the fundamental issues though, self determination, resistance to corruption can't be ignored for any reason.

Counter to the implication of the previous quote I posted (re: dependence on foreign i.e. Russian subsidies), the opposition now says they are not against Russia, although who really knows...

http://www.ridus.ru/news/160941

One of the leaders in Abkhazia - poet Vladimir Zantaria explained the requirements of the authorities. "We are trying to bring order to our home, but want to emphasize that relations between Abkhazia and Russia are sacred to us," Zantaria said to "Interfax". "On the contrary, we blame, and it was discussed at a meeting today, the current authorities in Abkhazia's lack of integration with Russia," he stressed.

The Abkhaz Army does not interfere in the internal political situation in the country, said Minister of Defense Mirab Kishmariya.  "The army in nothing interferes. Talks with the opposition continues," said Kishmariya.  During the protests, there were clashes between opposition and government supporters, but there were no casualties. The situation is controlled, negotiations are continuing, clarifies "Interfax".

All law enforcement agencies of Abkhazia support the legitimately elected president of the republic Alexander Ankvab, Abkhaz Security Council secretary Nugzar Ashuba told "Interfax" on Wednesday night.  "All law enforcement agencies are loyal to Constitution and the president-elect. In Abkhazia there is attempted coup" said Shuba.

The Army there is not getting involved, which is a great thing, that was to their credit in Kiev, and (partial) Army backing of Junta hostilities vs. opponents is helping the conflict become much worse than anything under Yanu.

It sounds like the opposition is in defacto control of some administrative buildings now in Sukhum, hopefully there can be some political negotiated solution.