ASW Aircrafts for Russian Navy:

Garry, I understand your point, but they are already making an airliner in that category and size with increased composite content...the Irkut MC-21 (possibly later called yak-242).

I do not see the point in a heavy modernisation of the
Tu-204 with more composite content....if at the end they want a similar product than the MC-21... they are already developing import substitution parts for the MC-21, so a fully Russian MC-21 will be ready before than a heavily upgraded Tu-204.

They can base the maritime patrols and AWACS on the existing tu204/ tu214, but if they want in 5/10 years something different and more modern it would make more sense to base a future version on the MC-21...

And of course at that point they could modernise the existing tu204 for military use with new engines and avionics...

The advantage of using a civilian plane is that such plane is flown everyday and all the bugs are corrected. The maintenance and exploitation costs are well known and there is no surprise.

With an all new plane you can have bad surprises.

Tu-204 is a safe choice over MS-21 which still doesn't exist.

Tu-204 should be used in stock configuration, that's it's main advantage for military use

Leave composites for MS-21 and civilian segment

Isos wrote:The advantage of using a civilian plane is that such plane is flown everyday and all the bugs are corrected. The maintenance and exploitation costs are well known and there is no surprise.

With an all new plane you can have bad surprises.

Tu-204 is a safe choice over MS-21 which still doesn't exist.

I agree with that and I believe it is a sensible choice. But if you want to do a deep modernisation of the Tu204, changing also part of the structures and the wing, than it is not anymore a known platform.

What I mean is to produce the existing tu204 for military roles without big changes (possibly with modernised avionics and mayne, but that is not fundamental, introducing new engines when they will be available).

And if after 2030 you want something more modern, than they could base the new generation version on the MC-21 (that at that point will be a well known and reliable platform.

I am just against investing money for a deep modernisation, with also serious structural changes of the tu204, when there is already a new airliner in the same class and size that will be certified next year)...

In the first five years, at least, all of the production of the MS-21 will go to the civilian sector. There will be no room for military versions, that´s why the Tu-204/-214 will be used.

It is the same procedure as in the army. There the chassis of the BMP-3 is used in new roles until the Kurganets-25 is ready and can slowly take over.

Garry, I understand your point, but they are already making an airliner in that category and size with increased composite content...the Irkut MC-21 (possibly later called yak-242).

If they are going to have to modify the design to suit their needs and lets agree that the design from 30 odd years ago might not need a huge amount of modification to improve performance... I suspect there will be more modification to allow the equipment they want to install be fitted than to improve the design... why would they limit improvements... as you mention this is in a different weight class from the other products being put together.

If a customer only wants a plane in this weight class they might choose the Tupolev or an upgrade of it... Tupolev would be happy with that, and the Russian military would likely be indifferent because it does not matter to them either way.

For the makers of MC-21 or Superjet then they need to make their products competitive with foreign and domestic competition... one way they could do that is excellent support and a selection of related aircraft that can serve different weight ranges and different flight profiles... so it makes sense for the customer to buy their full range instead of picking from different suppliers.

I do not see the point in a heavy modernisation of the
Tu-204 with more composite content....if at the end they want a similar product than the MC-21... they are already developing import substitution parts for the MC-21, so a fully Russian MC-21 will be ready before than a heavily upgraded Tu-204.

I am not suggesting upgrading the Tupolev with technology that does not exist yet... it is an old design that will need some modification to make it an MPA to begin with... so why not replace some components and parts with contemporary materials and designs... during its operational life it will get periodic upgrades anyway and this sort of upgrade will mean subcontractors in Russia making material and parts for Superjet and MC-21 can also make parts for this and other upgraded designs too meaning they make more money and get more work too... and for the aircraft themselves they get lighter and more experience with new materials.. I would think with its work with the PAK DA and Tu-160M2 upgrade they would have some experience with new materials and want to apply those skills in everything they make anyway.

Also be careful... Papa don't like it when you use Cyrillic spelling like I do when I put HATO... so you should really be calling it MS-21 or you might get told off.

They can base the maritime patrols and AWACS on the existing tu204/ tu214, but if they want in 5/10 years something different and more modern it would make more sense to base a future version on the MC-21...

Their last batch of MPAs operated for more than 40 years... and got multiple upgrades over the time.... you want the next generation to be obsolete in 10?

Be aware that if Russia does modify the Tu-214 into a May and Bear replacement there are a few potential export customers for which the P-8 is not really an option that would be interested in buying them too... some could not wait, but then some might buy some Tupolevs as well...

Of course MPAs are not cheap so they wont be sold in their thousands...

And of course at that point they could modernise the existing tu204 for military use with new engines and avionics...

Wouldn't it make sense to do that now while you are redesigning them for their new roles anyway?

And if after 2030 you want something more modern, than they could base the new generation version on the MC-21 (that at that point will be a well known and reliable platform.

I am just against investing money for a deep modernisation, with also serious structural changes of the tu204, when there is already a new airliner in the same class and size that will be certified next year)...

First of all didn't you say it is not in the same class and size and that only a stretched version of the MC-21 is similar.

Second... modifying an old plane just with MPA stuff to make it cheaper so you can use it for 10 years and then replace it will something that is still very new right now I would think is more wasteful than anything I have suggested.

They are not going to convert it into a biplane... it was designed and built 30 years ago and turning it into an MPA is going to be a significant change... but if you want to restrict the change basically what you are saying is that the newest technology can't be used and you might as well fit a local domestic version of Sea Dragon into it because a 30 year old design would not be ideal for newer equipment.

Modernising it complete before any have been built is the best time to modernise. Sure problems might occur but they are not guessing.... they do design new planes for a living... they have been upgrading the Tu-160 for the past few years and are laying down the hull of the first PAK DA right now so they probably have some experience in improving designs without breaking them...

This is Tupolev...

It is an MPA... there is nothing you can do to make it cheap except make it ineffective... spending money to make it better is a good investment.

It is the same procedure as in the army. There the chassis of the BMP-3 is used in new roles until the Kurganets-25 is ready and can slowly take over.

Except the job of MPA is specific and demanding but having the latest airliner doing the job is not critical... the Il-38 has not been a state of the art airliner for 95% of its career as an MPA... maybe in 10-15 years they might promote a superjet or MC-21 as military potential platforms, for export and domestic use...

Yeah the tu204 is larger than a 737 but a bit smaller than a 757.

The MC-21-400 is anyway planned to be produced.

I just mentioned that since you suggested about a possible future civilian use of the tu204.

As far as the tu 204, I agree on modernising hydraulics,  electronics, navigation and internal systems, and eventually also the engines, once PD-16 or PD18  will be available.

I do not understand what is wrong with the airframe and wings of the Tu204. They already include the use of composites (making about 14% of the weights of the structures according to what available on internet).

And there was an improved wing planned for the tu204sm, but it is not clear if it was developed and tested.

If you want to do more than that it will be much more expensive, and in addition old airframes will not be able to be used.

Back to the engines... often for military projects (cargo, transport, patrol, etc) they do not need the latest model. They just want something good and reliable. Efficiency and consumption is important, but less than for an airline.

As an example the new embraer transport plane uses the old CFM56 engines (as in the first generation A320), and not the CFM leap used in the A320 Neo...

The MC-21-400 is anyway planned to be produced.

Well any customer that will seriously consider buying a Russian plane is more likely to buy this newer design than an upgraded older design... especially if they need a few different sized version in the same range... the commonality would be worth the choice.

I just mentioned that since you suggested about a possible future civilian use of the tu204.

With an updated design and new engines.... why not create civilian models...

I do not understand what is wrong with the airframe and wings of the Tu204. They already include the use of composites (making about 14% of the weights of the structures according to what available on internet).

There is nothing wrong per se... but now is the best time to make improvements and design changes because as shown by the F-35 if you don't bother making changes and fixes at the start it becomes more expensive and unlikely to get fixed later after production starts...

Why would they not want the plane they use to be the best it can be and from a Tupolev perspective it will be paid for by the military orders so it is essentially free...

And there was an improved wing planned for the tu204sm, but it is not clear if it was developed and tested.

Well if the wing for the MC-21-400 will fit and do a better job why not fit that to it instead?

If you want to do more than that it will be much more expensive, and in addition old airframes will not be able to be used.

The old production stuff was being used wasn't it... it never really got into mass production and the few that were made were used so these planes will have to be new builds which makes them more useful because it means factory production work...

Back to the engines... often for military projects (cargo, transport, patrol, etc) they do not need the latest model. They just want something good and reliable. Efficiency and consumption is important, but less than for an airline.

That is very true, but efficient engines also mean endurance and low operational costs which does enter into their calculations... no point in keeping old engines in service on new aircraft when new engines are being designed and developed at great cost...

As an example the new embraer transport plane uses the old CFM56 engines (as in the first generation A320), and not the CFM leap used in the A320 Neo...

Of course, and for the Russians their first generation upgrades for their D-30 engines for their Il-76s cost 6 million dollars each because of all the exotic materials the new engines were made from. The original engines cost 800K each but probably would operate for a very long time before the difference in fuel consumption made them actually cheaper than the new engines... the original Il-76 has 3.2 million dollars worth of jet engines on it while the upgraded model with the new engines cost 24 million in engines alone... 20 million dollars buys a lot of fuel... so early on it simply was not worth it. For the civilian models they had to comply with noise and pollution regulations but the military models are exempt.

Eventually however the price of the new engines will come down and their reliability and servicability will improve to the point when it becomes time to upgrade...

Group search for a simulated enemy nuclear submarine by Il-38 aircraft in Kamchatka

GarryB wrote:
Of course, and for the Russians their first generation upgrades for their D-30 engines for their Il-76s cost 6 million dollars each because of all the exotic materials the new engines were made from. The original engines cost 800K each but probably would operate for a very long time before the difference in fuel consumption made them actually cheaper than the new engines... the original Il-76 has 3.2 million dollars worth of jet engines on it while the upgraded model with the new engines cost 24 million in engines alone... 20 million dollars buys a lot of fuel... so early on it simply was not worth it. For the civilian models they had to comply with noise and pollution regulations but the military models are exempt.

Eventually however the price of the new engines will come down and their reliability and servicability will improve to the point when it becomes time to upgrade...

n

I doubt those old engines could be purchased for 800K today. Yes the utilization rate of military transports is much lower then airliners, but newer engines also will often have much longer overhaul intervals. Range/payload are also highly desirable traits for military so if you have an IL-76 tanker, how do new engines change its capability to deliver fuel further and in higher volume vs the old engines.

I doubt those old engines could be purchased for 800K today.

Probably not, but for operators that currently have them on their aircraft they will still be able to get spare parts and servicing and even upgrades to improve performance, while the cost of upgrading to new engines will not be cheap.

Yes the utilization rate of military transports is much lower then airliners, but newer engines also will often have much longer overhaul intervals.

The fact is that civilian users will be forced to upgrade to meet noise and emission regulations in the west, but military users are exempt.

Range/payload are also highly desirable traits for military so if you have an IL-76 tanker, how do new engines change its capability to deliver fuel further and in higher volume vs the old engines.

The newer engines will have better fuel efficiency and will likely be more powerful, but the cost of new engines will mean you would have to get a lot of flying done before you notice any savings in lower fuel use and cheaper servicing.

When they have PD-14 engines ready then I suspect they will move to those engines as quickly as they can because the standardisation of parts and modular design should allow significant savings moving forward... and of course there are a lot of aircraft projects that are frozen waiting for suitable engines to get into production...

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

Isos wrote:The advantage of using a civilian plane is that such plane is flown everyday and all the bugs are corrected. The maintenance and exploitation costs are well known and there is no surprise.

With an all new plane you can have bad surprises.

Tu-204 is a safe choice over MS-21 which still doesn't exist.

I agree with that and I believe it is a sensible choice.  But if you want to do a deep modernisation of the Tu204, changing also part of the structures and the wing, than it is not anymore a known platform.

What I mean is to produce the existing tu204 for military roles without big changes (possibly with modernised avionics and mayne, but that is not fundamental, introducing new engines when they will be available).

And if after 2030 you want something more modern, than they could base the new generation version on the MC-21 (that at that point will be a well known and reliable platform.

I am just against investing money for a deep modernisation,  with also serious structural changes of the tu204, when there is already a new airliner in the same class and size that will be certified next year)...

The question is whether the MS-21 has the size and characteristics necessary to replace not only the Il-38, but the Tu-142.

For example, the combat radius, according to wikipedia data, is similar in the Il-38 and the P-8, but in the Tu-142 it is double or more.
The MS-21 does not seem to be enough, although a military version could load a little more fuel

Tu-142
Wingspan: 50m , Length: 51,5m
MTOW:  185t  Fuel: 84t

Il-38
Wingspan: 37,5m , Length: 40m
MTOW:  68t  Fuel: 26,6t

P-8
Wingspan: 37,5m , Length: 39,5m
MTOW:  86t  Fuel: 34t

MS-21-300
Wingspan: 36m , Length: 42m
MTOW: 79 t  Fuel:20,5t

Tu-204-200  (Tu-214)
Wingspan: 41m , Length: 46m
MTOW:  110t  Fuel: 36t

on the contrary, the Tu-204 seems to have a radius clearly greater than the P-8 although, of course, less than the Tu-142

Another important factor is that there are dozens of Tu-204s parked out of order that could be bought second-hand very cheaply and put up for ASW quickly, as a bridge until there is a final model in a few years.

If they need a replacement for the Tu-142 any time soon a lot of Tu-95 airframes will be freed up as Tu-160s and then PAK DAs go into production, though in a longer term the PAK DA could be used for MPA as well... potentially... in just the same way that a B-52 could be used as an MPA but wasn't.

GarryB wrote:If they need a replacement for the Tu-142 any time soon a lot of Tu-95 airframes will be freed up as Tu-160s and then PAK DAs go into production, though in a longer term the PAK DA could be used for MPA as well... potentially... in just the same way that a B-52 could be used as an MPA but wasn't.

Not necesary, but half of the Tu-142s are in reserve, they only use about 20 at most, there are so many other planes without use for 15 years or more.
In the case of the Il-38, they also have half of the planes seen in the satellite images stored in reserve.
Therefore, in the short term, the Tu-142 resource can continue to operate, the problem is that it is obsolete.

Also with modern technology of detection, satellite communications, GPS positioning, etc ... perhaps such a large plane than Tu--142 is not necessary.
Due to its size and characteristics, the Tu-204/214 seems optimal, and a couple of squadrons of "second-hand" machines can be in flight in the short term and very economic price, waiting for a definitive specific model.

It must also be taken into account that Tu-204/214 is a model that is already operated both in the VKS, the Ministry of Interior and in the government squad "SLO Rossiya", in total about 25 units are those that the Russian State has in operation

AMCXXL wrote:

GarryB wrote:If they need a replacement for the Tu-142 any time soon a lot of Tu-95 airframes will be freed up as Tu-160s and then PAK DAs go into production, though in a longer term the PAK DA could be used for MPA as well... potentially... in just the same way that a B-52 could be used as an MPA but wasn't.

Not necesary, but half of the Tu-142s are in reserve, they only use about 20 at most, there are so many other planes without use for 15 years or more.
In the case of the Il-38, they also have half of the planes seen in the satellite images stored in reserve.
Therefore, in the short term, the Tu-142 resource can continue to operate, the problem is that it is obsolete.

Also with modern technology of detection, satellite communications, GPS positioning, etc ... perhaps such a large plane than Tu--142 is not necessary.
Due to its size and characteristics, the Tu-204/214 seems optimal, and a couple of squadrons of "second-hand" machines can be in flight in the short term and very economic price, waiting for a definitive specific model.

It must also be taken into account that Tu-204/214 is a model that is already operated both in the VKS, the Ministry of Interior and in the government squad "SLO Rossiya", in total about 25 units are those that the Russian State has in operation

Understood your point that Tu-204/214 is quite good plane for ASW platform and many 2nd hand airframes are already available at dirt cheap price at both the plants (Aviastar and Kazan).
So why isn't Ru MOD already gone down that path and signed a contract for a ASW aircraft based on this plane? What's the holdup?

Little exercise

Dropping of sonar buoys

Where is it ? They have all nato submarines around their bases. I doubt it is hust an exercice, more likely live intel collection. Would be dumb to exercice against their own subs when they can hunt actual enemy subs.

Pacific.

My comments about the Tu-204 and Tu-214 being used for military aircraft instead of the brand new civil airline planes is based on the fact that when the Il-38 entered service it was nothing amazing in terms of performance in terms of civil airliners... the role of replacing MPAs and Elint aircraft and recon and jamming and other aircraft types in the Russian military does not demand brand new super state of the art aircraft designs.

Right now with western aircraft being a problem for Russian airlines then the need for replacments is greatest so by all means increase production of superjet and MS-21 to fill that gap, but the Tu-204 and Tu-214 have been in low rate production for the military for a while so in the short term making a few extra of those for civilian use makes sense because they are in production and production could be increased for a short period without being expensive.

These aircraft could be leased to Russian airlines until there are newer Superjet and MS-21 versions are available to replace them.

When they do replace them you can use the Tu-204/214s in the military with overhauls to replace any old Tu-134s or Tu-154Ms still being used and of course the Il-38/20/22 and other types that are now obsolete... even a medium tanker aircraft could be developed with the excess planes.

Once the Russian airlines have their new planes Russia will need to start working on support and ugrade facilities around the world for their planes and they could use that to sell further aircraft to other friendly countries to keep production going... and the Tupolev production could keep going for military use and also as mentioned several times the Tu-330 is based on the Tu-204 design and replacement of the An-12 is becoming rather important now too... making Tu-330s would take the pressure off the Il-476 and Il-276... and more importantly boosting production of the Ilyusions will free up production for export which would be where they make enough money to make a good profit... having the 276 as well that can replace C-130 and An-12 class transports would be a huge bonus to most customers too... many are traditional Soviet customers and many are independent and bought C-130s because that was all that was available... the Il-276 is bound to be better performing and with a larger brother option with existing Il-76s and new 476s it should be even better... but we wait on the engines and production to ramp up.

Developing a new aircraft? Why they don't use the Tu-204 for this purpose? Several airframes are available at Aviastar which can be quickly made flightworthy again and equipped with the ASW suite and weapons.

Owais.ousmani wrote:
Developing a new aircraft? Why they don't use the Tu-204 for this purpose? Several airframes are available at Aviastar which can be quickly made flightworthy again and equipped with the ASW suite and weapons.

You're right, and actually in the 90s the Tu-204 was already selected as replacement for the il-38.

As far as the existing tu-204 airframes in Ulyanovsk,  can't those   be used for airlines (there is quite the needs now)?

Maybe the Navy wants an aircraft capable to loiter for a longer time and with slower cruise speed than the Tu-204, and for that reason they want a 4 engine turboprop.

By the way, the il 38 used the same engines as the An-12. The tv7-117 is a bit short in power compared to those (unless they can wait for the new PDV4000).

Furthermore the development could make sense if they were doing in parallel also a new military transport plane to replace the An-12 (or even something slightly smaller (e.g. around 15 tons of payload instead of 20 tons)).

The Tu-204/214 could instead be used for a new AEW&C aircraft (like the American Boeing 737 AEW&C).

Anyway possibly Ilyushin resources have been relocated to this new project and moved away from il-112v (which could be replaced by a military transport derivative of the TVRS-44) and il-276 (which niche can be covered by a parallel transport development to the new ASW aircraft (+ the Tu-330).