Rafale wins India's MMRCA

AHAHAHAH, see what I am saying Pinto?

Oh well, lets see if it works out for India.  For some reason, I don't think it will.  IE: It will end up being way too costly for F-18's, Su-30MKI's, FGFA's.  For some reason, I have a feeling that India is going to skip FGFA entirely and just work with the F-18's and Su-30MKI's.  And it was offered for the make in India of the Su-30MKI's which in this case would be a step ahead than these F-18's(already having technicians trained on them, already pilots more than capable flying the birds, already having certain parts made in India, etc), but all ends up falling flat in their face as they would rather choose the F-18's over additional Su-30MKI's.  So instead, India will have a combat fleet that looks like some sort of wannabe Saudi style setup: Rafale's here, F-18's there and Su-30MKI's.

As well, since we also operate F-18's here in Canada, be warned that India will have to deal with service contracts where Indian mechanics will only be able to do "some things" while US contractors will have to come in and do the rest.  As well, really classified devices will not be made in India.  They won't even give South Korea certain basic stuff in fear it will be sold off.  So guarantee there will be blockings of sensitive technology.

Edit: I completely forgot that India also operates MiG-29's and some of the Tejas.  Jesus lord almighty, this nation is looking to be like Saudi Arabia?  And look how they are performing in Yemen.

when this govt came to power in India it was hoped that defence acquisitions will be made easier and simpler but what we are are seeing now is confusion n utter chaos under make in india, each n every manufacturer going to set up plant in India if there fighter is chosen. be it f 16, Rafale, f 18 and Gripen.

Nothing can be said with certainty whats going to be final decision, meanwhile IAF is fast loosing squadron strengths. It was delay in last govt time but its now utter chaos in this govt time

Til now only 3 deals of the time of UPA govt has been finalised so far of apache, chinook and kamov helis

I hope India is aware how quickly US impose sanction on someone and India is also a member of BRICS group and wont to become a member of SCO, so US sanctions could be imposed on India at any moment. Making Tejas with US and western equipment and buying new Rafales and maybe F-16 or F/A-18 could bring India in a hostage position, where US sanctions could ground half of Indian air force through the night. Only US sanctions proof fighters, which India have are Su-30MKI and MiG-29. India is one of the targets of US imperial policy as Russia and China are. Difference is, that Russia and China are self sufficient, India isn't. India should choose its allies more wisely than just jump in US arms, which is not Indian ally. Never was and never will be.

Well, yeah, it is. I don't think these F-18's will happen but if they do, it will make no sense at all. Way too much overlap in aircrafts and performances. They could always get more Su-30's and then try to build more Tejas, as they are trying to replace MiG-21's and Mirages. Well, adding in F-18's, Tejas, MiG-29UPG, some Rafales is not helping at all. F-18's will overlap with Su-30MKI an are deadly costly so this leads me to believe if such acquisition goes through, Russia won't have anymore major sales to India. Will India also phase out Su-30 for F-18's? FGFA will also probably go to the dustbin. We may see the last of Russian aircraft in Indian service and we will see a second Iran-Iraq war style, were US will supply both sides. But this time, it will be obvious.

Hope you Indians don't have a hissy fit next time if Russia decides to sell Pakistan fighter jets like Su-35. Cause if US can do it, so should Russia.

@sepheronx:

I strongly believe that the F-18 stuffs is just a feint from India, they will never buy F-18. Probably they just want to impose some stress on Russia, probably to ask Russia for sharing more benefit in the FGFA deal.

Remember the Rafale deal and the 2011-2015 rifle tenders ? And Jaitapur power plant ? All these ended in misery. India promised to buy something big from the West, but the contract became smaller and smaller, and finally almost nothing was bought.

Meanwhile, T-90 and Su-30 is becoming the backbone of Indian army. INSAS can also be considered as Indian AK.

India tasted both Russian and Western weapons, and they realized which is better. Russian influence in Indian weapons is irreversible.

Never underestimate the ineptitude and corrupt powers in India. Hence why INSAS (which was admitted is a POS) and Chinook helicopters exist in India. Kalashnikov is opening a plant in India so possible more AK sales, but this f-18 deal may go through, since Boeing has more money to bribe with. It makes sense for India to use and manufacture Russian, but not American. They though maybe shooting themselves in the foot.

All I am saying, is that if this deal goes through, then Russia has every right to sell Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh whatever they want. US and India can't have all the pie.

FGFA is must and a reality for India. the point is when the actually deal will be signed hopefully this year. no other country will offer to make FGFA in India except Russia.

The media is going go ga-ga over localized production of f 16 and f 18 and it do not makes sense at all. Most probably more rafale after 36 if at all deal materialized and su 30mki will come along with faster movement on Tejas mark 2

All the rumor mills ahead of the visit of US defense secretary to India from 10th-12th april. Indian policy makers are fully aware of sanctions prone US systems. Rest assured for the belligerent china in indian ocean india will continue to look for advanced US weapons for Indian NAVY but monopoly will remain with Russia

You and I both know, due to recent activities, that US will come to India with a bag full of cash a India will lick it up. If I was Indian, I would be insulted. US has shown it's color multitude of times to India, yet your people and government gargle it up. Would be like hugging the guy who screwed your wife.

And no. India cannot afford financially both FGFA and these other jets. After US money, India will cancel FGFA or Su-30 in order to afford a basic airforce. The cost of maintaining all these different jets will cripple your defense budget. They don't share many or any parts.

Modi was barred from US. Yet he has no problem sucking up to them like a dog.

I wrote previously on the need to revisit the decision to procure 126 units of the Rafale at Rs 1,000 crore a piece for India’s multi-role combat aircraft requirement and was happy to see that this was done by the Defence Ministry led ably by Manohar Parrikar.

Instead of that large acquisition, Prime Minister Modi announced on his recent visit to France that a smaller number of aircraft (36) would be purchased, at a significantly lower price. Unfortunately, resulting negotiations appear to be stuck with the French asking for $8 billion for the 36 aircraft deal, and GOI not willing to spend more than $7 billion (Rs. 47,000 crore).

This still translates to an outrageous price per aircraft of Rs 1,300 – Rs 1,700 crore. This amount is large enough to be meaningfully quantified on a per capita basis – god forbid, if a single IAF Rafale were to crash, it would cost each and every Indian Rs 13. The Rafale purchase just doesn’t make financial or strategic sense, since 36 aircraft are unlikely to swing the outcome of a war, or to meaningfully address India’s dwindling squadron strength. There is thus no dishonour in cancelling the Rafale purchase, regardless of our previous intent, since the French have been unable or unwilling to help make this a commercially viable acquisition.

A better option may be the proven mainstay of the US Navy – Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet (SH). There are several compelling arguments in favor of this aircraft:

An operational AESA radar

Wide range of effective missiles and munitions

Excellent GE F414 engines, which will also be used in India’s own Light Combat Aircraft (Tejas MkII), and potentially in the upcoming Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. Such commonality would streamline inventory and maintenance. And in EPE spec, would enable SH to operate effectively from India’s Himalayan bases

Potential for synergy with Indian navy since SH could be used on India’s upcoming indigenous aircraft carriers

Formidable electronic warfare capability in the EA-18G variant (Growler)
Significantly lower cost

Boeing’s offer to transfer the production line to India aligns well with the Make in India initiative

Potential for Indian industry to participate in Boeing’s lucrative commercial aircraft supply chain

Manufacturing the Super Hornet in India, as Defence Secretary Ashton Carter may propose on his upcoming trip to India, would solve India’s dual quest for improving squadron strength, and achieving a higher level of self sufficiency. He will likely encourage India to sign three pivotal agreements to facilitate this – the EULA, CISMOA, and BECA. Each comes with its caveats, but it would be possible to address these through negotiation and an implicit high-level understanding.

Of concern are America’s continued arms sales to Pakistan (although these are lower spec F-16s, etc), which India may want to negotiate hard to suspend. But what may be of greater concern is the perception (not intent) that India has chosen the US as its alliance partner for the 21st century – which would disappoint Russia and alarm China.

But it is also important to note that Russia already supplies some of its best military hardware, such as the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter and S-400 air defence system, to China. Apart from a credible nuclear second strike capability, the best way to counter China’s growing arsenal and assertiveness, as well as Pakistani adventurism, is cutting edge hardware, combined with comprehensive real-time operational intelligence, both of which the US may be uniquely able to supply, until India achieves self-sufficiency.

What the defence minister and the PM need to ascertain is whether these are, or will remain, available even if India pursues an independent foreign policy, as is our right to do.

Lol it seems like no deal is going to be signed with any one or perhaps India will make do with its old friend Russia but which fighter plane ?

I like how they mention AESA radar like it's the new fad, when Su-35 Pesa outdoes it.

Anyway, reason why Russia moved closer to China was really the fact India was moving closer to US. Russia was put in the corner. As well, China has not received any S-400 nor a concrete deal. Only Su-35 an that is because no one else is buying it. Not like Russia offered China ToT. Anyway, India can purchase whatever they like, but they also need to understand that the gloves come off and Russia can sell to whomever.

With all this said, it would be nice if Russia and India can continue its good partnership, but I doubt it will work out. India is choosing the path of a western vessel than an independent state (evident by so far the sham the make in India doctrine is so far). Maybe there will be an FGFA. But after witnessing India and it's recent questionable purchases, give me the idea that they may aim for F-35 with near no tech transfer, like the Apaches and Chinooks.

Yes, F/A-18E/F have AESA radar, but I don't think India will get them with AESA radar. As I read US already block Israel to export their EL/M-2052 AESA radar, so I don't think Tejas Mk2 will get them. I think only way for India to get AESA radar is to develop it themselves or buy it from Russia. I don't think US will give India any ToT, but only send planes in parts, so India will put them together and than those planes will be "produced in India".

medo wrote:Yes, F/A-18E/F have AESA radar, but I don't think India will get them with AESA radar. As I read US already block Israel to export their EL/M-2052 AESA radar, so I don't think Tejas Mk2 will get them. I think only way for India to get AESA radar is to develop it themselves or buy it from Russia. I don't think US will give India any ToT, but only send planes in parts, so India will put them together and than those planes will be "produced in India".

US has never blocked any Israeli aesa radar sales to India. India and Isreal are going to install aesa in Tejas and other aircrafts too, if you have anly reliable link kindly share

regarding F 18 this aircraft wont come to india as for transfer m access of high end technology from US, india needs to sign three agreements namely the LSA, Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA) which no indian govt will sign if its in right frame of mind

As India identifies the next supplier to IAF, the aircraft deal has become the mother of all deals. The eventual supplier will not only enhance its influence but also reap rich financial rewards. In terms of number of aircraft, this is perhaps the single largest contract ever. India is spoilt for choices.

Who is who of the major combat jet manufacturers are lining up to sell jets to India. Americans, a UK-German European consortium, French, Swedes, and Russians are all working hard to woo the Indian government. However for India it will be a thin line between creating indigenous capability and new dependency on a foreign supplier.

Combat aircraft selection starts with foreign policy. Only friendly and reliable countries are selected as eventual suppliers, and even after negotiations and aircraft delivery the job is not done. The combat jet deal ends with foreign policy.

The country’s foreign office has the explicit task of remaining in the good graces of the supplier. The supplying country controls the parts supply and with exercising a quasi-veto over the country’s war making ability, greatly enhancing the selling country’s prestige and influence. For a buying country it’s a dependence on another country. No wonder fighter jet deals are often more about geo politics than pure commerce.

Decisions by Indian policy makers thus will not only impact the make-up of IAF but could also reshape foreign policy. Part of that change is visible. Continued decline of Russia at the global stage has caught up on a reluctant India. In a first, Russia lost out in the last aircraft MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) tender, despite the lowest bid. Never before have the Russians not been awarded the biggest IAF contracts.

Although India purchased British and French jets in the past these were small numbers. The core of the IAF are Russian jets. First time in four decades the Indian Air Force will see a non-Russian jet alongside forming the backbone of the fighter strength. India’s ties with Russia will remain strategic as substantial defense hardware will continue to be Russian for a very long. However, Russia’s monopoly in the Indian skies has undoubtedly ended.

Who is replacing Russia? In the fray are the Americans, the UK and German led consortium, the French and the Swedes. Not only are the hardware offered by each very different, so are the political and strategic ramifications. From India’s vantage point, the Swedish offer is predominantly commercial being the weakest country in terms of political and strategic value.

Sweden is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council neither an economic heavyweight. Gripen jets are powered by GE engines thus not free of the sanction-prone impulses of Americans. A partnership with Sweden will bring India little at the UNSC or other international fora.

To make the Swedish offer compelling, there needs to be substantial compensation elsewhere. Like a generous offer with complete technology transfer and unprecedented buildup of Indian aviation industry. Given SAAB has declared a desire to become an Indian company, one assumes Swedes are fully aware of their options.

The French Rafael offer and the UK-German led consortium with Eurofighter are better positioned as UNSC members and economic heavy weights. These countries place commercial interest’s almost equally with international politics which adds to the reliability of the historically dependable relationship. As a consequence the offers are less generous. Failing one of the key Indian criteria of development of an Indian industry.

The French have already dragged their feet on producing in India or transferring significant technology. The UK and Germany offer nothing very different. If any of these were the eventual winners, the Indian aviation industry will remain underdeveloped.

The Americans are offering the greatest amount of technology transfer and manufacturing in India with either the F18 or the F16. India will achieve a longstanding goal of enhancing its ability to design combat jets and develop an indigenous manufacturing capability. The Americans seem to have the best offer and the winning hand. However this is not all.

There cannot be the slightest doubt that American defense sales are just commercial. These sales are an in veritable part of American geopolitical strategy, and deals have clear political objectives. The subsequent supply of spare parts is brazenly a bona fide instrument of continued control. India developed Tejas aircraft already depends on GE engines. Selecting another American jet will dramatically reroute IAF’s lifeline from Washington effectively giving Americans a veto. Given the sanction-prone history of relations, Uncle Sam is seen as unreliable in India and is facing political opposition.

This is unchartered territory which no Indian government has ever dared to navigate. The cold math of real politics rather than platitudes should drive the future.

One mitigating argument against unreliability of American policy is China. China is increasingly asserting itself as a rival to US power in Asia and beyond which is a common concern for both countries. The US needs a military counterweight, and India simply needs to upgrade to not get overwhelmed by China. After investing trillions in China over the decades, the US needs newer investment destinations.

The IAF deal with jets manufactured in India not only meets but jumpstarts all the above objectives in one stroke. This is where the objectives of the two countries appear to align for the long term. It is this long term alignment of objectives that argues for reliability of American policy with India.

However, while China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse is a foregone conclusion, the future of the US-China relationship is not. While Chinese dispute islands and borders, they are not exporting ideology and changing regimes. Unlike the Soviet Union, the US is not containing China either. US continues to be one of the largest foreign investors and trading partner of China. McDonalds and KFCs dot the landscapes of Chinese cities. Early in his first term President Obama did announce an exclusive G2 club with China leaving out all other powers in the cold. Both countries benefit from globalization and a capitalist economy.

Chinese form the largest contingent of foreign students in American universities. Both countries cooperate on climate change, Iran, and North Korea.
All this hardly qualifies as rivalry, at least not a black and white one. With mature leadership they can be less than rivals or keep oscillating between competition and cooperation. America’s economic interests with China are significant and several times bigger than with India. Despite best intentions there can be no guarantee that geo political expediency will not force Americans to engage with China at the expense of India. In face of such facts, constructing India-US security cooperation on assumptions of US-China rivalry would be akin to building on shifting sand. Indian reservations on becoming a de facto American pawn in the revolving US-Chinese relationship have merit.

How does India solve the dilemma of having US fighter jets without becoming a tool between America and China? Technology transfer for the jets to be manufactured in India is the answer. Technology transfer and manufacturing in India limits ongoing dependence on US for spare parts. Anything less than building genuine India capability will be a one sided deal that increases American leverage over China but leaves India vulnerable to the much more dynamic US-Chinese relationship.

Technology transfer would signal a commitment towards building India as a balancing power in Asia. It would generate confidence that India - US defense cooperation could be insulated from succumbing to short term US interests in China. Indian policy makers will do well to see the opportunity, while avoiding the traps and deliver a deal that will increase indigenous capability rather than increase countries’ dependency.

http://swarajyamag.com/ideas/indias-geo-political-compulsions-will-play-a-major-role-in-iafs-jet-deal

India is giving the US strings to pull by buying US hardware... unless Congress disappears any US congressperson could capsize the whole boat... but of course no US congressperson would support Pakistan over India right?

First they will try to push India and Russia apart and then they will likely use India against China and hope for conflict because while these two great powers are fighting the US can sit on the sidelines eating popcorn and feeding fuel into the fire.

Really don't think Russia would even consider doing the same, but then Russia is not really afraid of a powerful India or a powerful China like the US is.

The US sees the world as something to be controlled with money or force and it will not accept any other power above it... NATO or EU or UN...

The point of increasing engagement with US is fraught with uncertainty for sure with some obvious risks but gains too will be there.

Indian govt offered olive branch to Pakistan by sudden visit of PM to Lahore and that was met with attack on air base in india. Indian govt again took gamble and invited pak tieam to investigate which too resulted in strong rebuff from them and ultimately they called off peace process

India again raised olive branch this time to china by asking to support the banning of Masson Azhar the leader of attack on Indian air base but china vetoed the move in UN and instead are heckling India with string of pearls. in Indian ocean trying to squeeze India from all sides. what happens in SCS is not Indian provocation or concern as of now but china has certainly raised stakes in Indian ocean


Pak,china are one now and now Russia too joining pakistan (there old adversary n reason of there fall in Afghanistan) with oil pipe lines on softer loans. so we are seeing realignment of some relations in every major country of world

Where does this leave india ? has closer Russian relation with china and india has ever benefited India ? perhaps no

India will continue to grow defense ties with US seeing whats happening in our backyard. now this policy backfires or not is not clear bit this is the only policy left now to oursue or else  give china free run in indian ocean

Russia will continue to be our major arms supplier but US too will beg many high tech bigger contracts alongside because china posses every weapon we get from Russia if they do not buy from Russia they will reverse engineer it

“21st Century” Aerial warfare is no longer based on the lethality of a combat aircraft like it always have been in the past nor can it be judged on basic criteria like speed,agility, and firepower of the combat jet. Next generation Aerial warfare not only demands cutting edge firepower but also Smarter jets which can take up a host of new roles while in air and switch between several different missions in the same sortie.

Rafale Omnirole Combat Aircraft selected by India under MMRCA Contract was not only most advanced fighter jet but also smartest aircraft by far which was equipped with array of sophisticated electronics systems and equipment which let it beat its competition with ease and American legacy fighter jets like F-16 and F-18 currently been offered to India under ” Make in India ” lost the race by a mile .

Rafale provides its pilots unprecedented level of data fusion which combines information from all the different systems and sensors and allows the pilot to gather high-resolution imagery and allows him to target guided weapons with pinpoint accuracy and also defend aircraft from hostile actions in a combat zone .

8 Equipment which plays a crucial role in making Rafale Smarter but also makes it 25 % of the plane value are explained below

1 ) Spectra Electronic Warfare suite : Spectra is the first line of defence for Rafale aircraft . identifying,locating and jamming electromagnetic,infrared and laser threats . the system incorporates radar warning receiver, laser warning and Missile Approach Warning for threat detection plus a phased array radar jammer and a decoy dispenser for threat countering It also includes a dedicated management unit for data fusion and reaction decision. Spectra also has ELINT functions, for recording and analyzing the characteristics of hostile emitters and their locations.SPECTRA is a major contributor to the low observability concept of Rafale which reduces aircraft’s apparent radar signature. SPECTRA system consists of two infrared missile warning sensors which provide 360-degree coverage and ensure detection/warning of incoming threats.

2 ) AREOS: (Airborne Recce Observation System) is a stand-off reconnaissance system, from Thales, which provides rapid day/night imagery intelligence for reconnaissance and identification in any weather conditions . AREOS gathers HD imagery at long range and across a wide area with information transmitted from air to ground via a high capacity data link . Composed of an airborne pod and a ground/shipboard station, AREOS combines state-of-the-art imaging technologies with high-performance data-links. These advanced functions save precious time in the sensor-to-shooter loop to quickly meet evolving mission demands, including the new requirements of peace-keeping operations.

3) Communication Navigation identification suite : Secure State of the art communication, navigation and identification capabilities of Rafale fighter jet including ECCM and IFF and tactical data links provide an ultimate edge to Rafale fighter jet.

4) Damocles Multifunction Targeting Pod and TALIOS : Damocles is a third generation laser designation pod which provides weapons guidance and a full suite of sensors for navigation and air-to-air target identification . As per F3R standard will see adoption TALIOS Multifunction Targeting Pod for Rafale fighter jets, India likely will get TALIOS next-gen laser designation pod which provides imaging and engagement capabilities under day and night conditions . TALIOS is the first optronic pod to cover the entire critical decision chain from intelligence gathering to weapon delivery. Capabilities range from the deep strike with long-range missiles and bombs to air-to-air target identification and close air support and include the rapidly emerging requirement of Non-Traditional Information, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (NTISR). TALIOS can be equipped also with upgraded Mirage-2000 of Indian Air force .

5) AESA RBE2 : Active Electronic Scanning in the RBE2 radar represents a major step in the evolution of radar technology. All radar functions are performed in the same flight. RBE2 radar makes it possible to switch radar modes quickly, thereby enabling operational functions to run simultaneously. RBE2 is automatic and highly versatile, sorting and ranking tracked targets allowing the pilot to track multiple targets while scanning and is also first operational European active radar antenna which will allow India to integrate its own Indigenous Astra BVRAAM and as per F3R standard Rafale fighter jets will also see the integration of European Meteor long-range air-to-air missiles .

6) Frontal Sector optronics (FSO) : FSO is a Multisensor suite ( IR, TV, Laser Range Finder ) which can Simultaneous carry out functions like Tracking and Identification in Air-to-Air & Air-to-Surface capabilities . FSO allows the pilot to spot enemy aircraft without been detected and is also immune to radar jamming because it operates in optical wavelengths .

7) Advanced Man Machine Interface (MMI) : Rafale fighter jet boasts of best Man-Machine Interface which helps in creating instant situational awareness for the pilot. A Well informed pilot also gets first mover’s advantage to make tactical decisions which can change the outcome of each mission and even a war.

Modular Data Processing Unit : Various sensors onboard also requires powerful mission control computer which can create perfect data fusion for the pilot and enable him to carry out multiple missions in the same sortie or reconfigure his aircraft for next mission in the shortest span of time .


http://idrw.org/8-things-which-makes-rafale-by-far-the-smartest-combat-aircraft-india-could-ever-have/#more-91983

Your tone has changed Pinto. While you said the deals may not go through, now you are saying it will be good for India? You Indian Patriots are the worst. If you caught your wife with a US guy plowing her, you would say it was good for her, right? India is getting railed by US. Look at max post in US India ties thread, how Ashton Carter plans to get India against Russia and China. And ou Indians were dumb enough to fall for it like British times, and you blame Pakistan? The nation who is supported militarily by the very people you guys sold yourselves to? I mean, how stupid you think we are? Stop trying to convince yourself that your authorities are helping India. Recent agreement with US and India pretty much destroyed India's sovereignty and non-allignment.

Way to go geniuses. Now India will be isolated in this region just to suck up US favor. Iran, Pakistan, Russia, China, Sri Lanka will be more hostile towards India.

By the way, with your pathetic form of mental gymnastics, Russia sells NOTHING to Pakistan compared to US. To China? Dear God, I didn't think you were illiterate in mill technology. You guys don't have Su-35, Su-30M2 or such equipment.

You know those terrorists from Pakistan that killed so many of your people? Where do you think they initially got their supplies and training from? US. F-16's are way more of a threat to India than a couple of Mi-24's.

Stop cherry picking excuses for your nations recent form of high treason.

Dear sepheronx

there is no need to go personal against any member/country/community. we are just ordinary members here and we express our opinion here what we gather from various news sources

my personal opinions have not changed, we are not getting isolated at all


http://thewire.in/2016/04/13/with-chabahar-text-finalised-indias-dream-of-a-road-to-afghanistan-gathers-speed-29174/

As India identifies the next supplier to IAF, the aircraft deal has become the mother of all deals. The eventual supplier will not only enhance its influence but also reap rich financial rewards. In terms of number of aircraft, this is perhaps the single largest contract ever. India is spoilt for choices.

Who is who of the major combat jet manufacturers are lining up to sell jets to India. Americans, a UK-German European consortium, French, Swedes, and Russians are all working hard to woo the Indian government. However for India it will be a thin line between creating indigenous capability and new dependency on a foreign supplier.

Combat aircraft selection starts with foreign policy. Only friendly and reliable countries are selected as eventual suppliers, and even after negotiations and aircraft delivery the job is not done. The combat jet deal ends with foreign policy.

The country’s foreign office has the explicit task of remaining in the good graces of the supplier. The supplying country controls the parts supply and with exercising a quasi-veto over the country’s war making ability, greatly enhancing the selling country’s prestige and influence. For a buying country it’s a dependence on another country. No wonder fighter jet deals are often more about geo politics than pure commerce.

Decisions by Indian policy makers thus will not only impact the make-up of IAF but could also reshape foreign policy. Part of that change is visible. Continued decline of Russia at the global stage has caught up on a reluctant India. In a first, Russia lost out in the last aircraft MMRCA (Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft) tender, despite the lowest bid. Never before have the Russians not been awarded the biggest IAF contracts.

Although India purchased British and French jets in the past these were small numbers. The core of the IAF are Russian jets. First time in four decades the Indian Air Force will see a non-Russian jet alongside forming the backbone of the fighter strength. India’s ties with Russia will remain strategic as substantial defense hardware will continue to be Russian for a very long time to come. However, Russia’s monopoly in the Indian skies has undoubtedly ended.

Who is replacing Russia? In the fray are the Americans, the UK and German led consortium, the French and the Swedes. Not only are the hardware offered by each very different, so are the political and strategic ramifications. From India’s vantage point, the Swedish offer is predominantly commercial being the weakest country in terms of political and strategic value.

Sweden is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council neither an economic heavyweight. Gripen jets are powered by GE engines thus not free of the sanction-prone impulses of Americans. A partnership with Sweden will bring India little at the UNSC or other international fora.

To make the Swedish offer compelling, there needs to be substantial compensation elsewhere. Like a generous offer with complete technology transfer and unprecedented buildup of Indian aviation industry. Given SAAB has declared a desire to become an Indian company, one assumes Swedes are fully aware of their options.

The French Rafael offer and the UK-German led consortium with Eurofighter are better positioned as UNSC members and economic heavy weights. These countries place commercial interest’s almost equally with international politics which adds to the reliability of the historically dependable relationship. As a consequence the offers are less generous. Failing one of the key Indian criteria of development of an Indian industry.

The French have already dragged their feet on producing in India or transferring significant technology. The UK and Germany offer nothing very different. If any of these were the eventual winners, the Indian aviation industry will remain underdeveloped.

The Americans are offering the greatest amount of technology transfer and manufacturing in India with either the F18 or the F16. India will achieve a longstanding goal of enhancing its ability to design combat jets and develop an indigenous manufacturing capability. The Americans seem to have the best offer and the winning hand. However this is not all.

There cannot be the slightest doubt that American defense sales are just commercial. These sales are an in veritable part of American geopolitical strategy, and deals have clear political objectives. The subsequent supply of spare parts is brazenly a bona fide instrument of continued control. India developed Tejas aircraft already depends on GE engines. Selecting another American jet will dramatically reroute IAF’s lifeline from Washington effectively giving Americans a veto. Given the sanction-prone history of relations, Uncle Sam is seen as unreliable in India and is facing political opposition.

This is unchartered territory which no Indian government has ever dared to navigate. The cold math of real politics rather than platitudes should drive the future

. One mitigating argument against unreliability of American policy is China. China is increasingly asserting itself as a rival to US power in Asia and beyond which is a common concern for both countries. The US needs a military counterweight, and India simply needs to upgrade to not get overwhelmed by China. After investing trillions in China over the decades, the US needs newer investment destinations.

The IAF deal with jets manufactured in India not only meets but jumpstarts all the above objectives in one stroke. This is where the objectives of the two countries appear to align for the long term. It is this long term alignment of objectives that argues for reliability of American policy with India.

However, while China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse is a foregone conclusion, the future of the US-China relationship is not. While Chinese dispute islands and borders, they are not exporting ideology and changing regimes. Unlike the Soviet Union, the US is not containing China either. US continues to be one of the largest foreign investors and trading partner of China. McDonalds and KFCs dot the landscapes of Chinese cities. Early in his first term President Obama did announce an exclusive G2 club with China leaving out all other powers in the cold. Both countries benefit from globalization and a capitalist economy.

Chinese form the largest contingent of foreign students in American universities. Both countries cooperate on climate change, Iran, and North Korea.

All this hardly qualifies as rivalry, at least not a black and white one. With mature leadership they can be less than rivals or keep oscillating between competition and cooperation. America’s economic interests with China are significant and several times bigger than with India. Despite best intentions there can be no guarantee that geo political expediency will not force Americans to engage with China at the expense of India. In face of such facts, constructing India-US security cooperation on assumptions of US-China rivalry would be akin to building on shifting sand. Indian reservations on becoming a de facto American pawn in the revolving US-Chinese relationship have merit.

How does India solve the dilemma of having US fighter jets without becoming a tool between America and China? Technology transfer for the jets to be manufactured in India is the answer. Technology transfer and manufacturing in India limits ongoing dependence on US for spare parts. Anything less than building genuine India capability will be a one sided deal that increases American leverage over China but leaves India vulnerable to the much more dynamic US-Chinese relationship.

Technology transfer would signal a commitment towards building India as a balancing power in Asia. It would generate confidence that India – US defense cooperation could be insulated from succumbing to short term US interests in China. Indian policy makers will do well to see the opportunity, while avoiding the traps and deliver a deal that will increase indigenous capability rather than increase countries’ dependency.

Pinto wrote:Dear sepheronx

there is no need to go personal against any member/country/community. we are just ordinary members here and we express our opinion here what we gather from various news sources

my personal opinions have not changed, we are not getting isolated at all


http://thewire.in/2016/04/13/with-chabahar-text-finalised-indias-dream-of-a-road-to-afghanistan-gathers-speed-29174/

Afghanistan is a failed state and Pakistan still holds a lot over it. As well, recent agreement with Ashton Carter would piss off Russia, China and Iran a this is the countries the deal aims at. If you think otherwise, you are fooling yourself. Afghanistan is not a prize. China will influence both Pakistan and Sri Lanka against India and eventually Bangladesh too. India shot itself in the foot. And it is evident by your change of tone a how you just did a 180. By the way, I thought you said India isn't replacing Russia for weapons? Your last article says otherwise.

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/04/10/the-geopolitics-of-ash-carters-india-visit-i/

Call this proposed alliance system “network” or by any other name, what is on the anvil is an “Asian NATO” to contain China (and Russia).
In fact, at the very outset of his speech, Carter spelt out in black and white the “five evolving, major immediate challenges” to the US’ security interests. They are, ad seriatim:
“countering the prospect of Russian aggression and coercion”;
managing historic change in the vital Asia-Pacific region, including China’s rise;
strengthening US’ deterrent and defense forces against North Korea;
“checking Iranian aggression and malign influence in the Gulf”; and,
accelerating the defeat of the Islamic State.
Strategic congruence with a superpower with global interests is indivisible. Put differently, the US intends to break up India’s strategic partnership with Russia and to continue to interfere in Indian-Iranian relations, apart from inserting itself into the Sino-Indian bilateral discourses.

If you are going to try and make us look stupid, please dont make it obvious.

well bro why are you always seeing US-india relations to be against china-russia always ? China has always been our enemy despite Russia been common friend of both. this looked strange to me too but this is reality

India will never ever join any alliance or country against the interests of Russia, this you will see in next 1-2 yrs. Majority of Indians are against US-India agreements. lets see how future unfolds

India has enough foothold in Afghanistan to keep an eye on Pakistan, our sole aim there is to see no taliban like govt comes back there again

Like I said before, wish I could share your optimism. But recent deal with Ashton Carter actually puts India in somewhat a defacto alliance with US, and will lead to damages with actual worthy partners (not Afghanistan hotbead of terrorism). Iran will definitely see this as a major threat since US can use Indian territory for its terrorist needs, and it will definitely put India hard on China's crosshairs and give China and Pakistan more incentive to screw India. China, even with border issue with India, was also looking to settle this overall for business reasons. But turning t the country that threatened to nuke you not long ago and insulted your people on numerous occasions, mixed with actually arming your enemy to the teeth, wasn't smart. China gave incentives to Russia, India gave nothing. Even head of Tupovlev commented on dealing with Indian business.....

The development came nearly four months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Francois Hollande signed a memorandum of agreement (MoU) to purchase 36 Rafale combat jets.



The negotiations over the purchase of 36 Rafale fighter jets have entered the “final stages” as both India and France have managed to narrow down their differences over the pricing. Government sources said that the deal has not been concluded yet but it is in “final stages”.

The development came nearly four months after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Francois Hollande signed a memorandum of agreement (MoU) to purchase 36 Rafale combat jets. The Indian side has been negotiating hard to bring down the price of the Rafale deal.

Sources said the price for 36 Rafales, as per the UPA tender, keeping the cost escalation and dollar rate in mind, comes to a little over Rs 65,000 crore. This includes the cost involved in making changes India has sought in the aircraft, including Israeli helmet mounted display and some specific weaponry, among others.

- See more at: http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/negotiations-over-36-rafale-fighter-jets-enter-final-stage-2755390/#sthash.NeGdLh7R.dpuf

India's much-negotiated deal with France for 36 fighter jets is final - it will buy the French-made Rafale planes for 8.8 billion dollars, said sources to NDTV. The agreement is to be signed within three weeks and it will take at least 18 months for India to get the first lot of aircraft.

France initially sought nearly 12 billion dollars for the sale of 36 fighters complete with weapon systems. India has closed the deal nearly 3 billion dollars below France's asking price.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a visit to Paris last year confirmed India's order of 36 read-to-fly jets. Before that, the Defence Ministry had sanctioned the purchase of 120 planes, but the deal was scaled down dramatically after both sides were unable for years to agree on the unit price and the assembling of the planes in India.

The Rafales are made by manufacturer Dassault Aviation. During PM Modi's visit, the countries agreed that the deal would be handled between their governments.

The Air Force has stressed it needs to start replacing its ageing jet fleet from 2017 to effectively check the capabilities of Pakistan and China.

As the negotiations stretched - and a deal was not reached during French President Francois Hollande's visit to India in January, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said he is "a tough negotiator" and needed time to ensure a good bargain. The Air Force has repeatedly been asking for its ageing warplane fleet to be urgently modernised.

Sources say that as part of the government's push to develop and support military manufacturing at home, in exchange for selling India off-the-shelf Rafales, French companies including Dassault will have to invest three billion dollars in India to help firms here with stealth-capability and radar technologies. France had initially agreed to a 30 per cent offset obligation to be invested in India, while India had sought a minimum of 50 per cent. France has now agreed for 50 per cent offset obligation.

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rafale-jet-deal-finalised-by-india-and-france-for-7-8-billion-euros-1395958