State Armaments Program 2011-2020

That's why its called procurement plan. Lets not forget that Russian military spending itself is within 900B Rubles a year, while Rosvardi gets 1.2T

Kimppis wrote:LOL.

I know I was mostly repeating myself, but I'm really confused right now...

So has the media been full of shit (as usual) all this time? So that "600 billion" (old exchange rate) was actually never the whole (well, most of the) budget? Then what was the real amount? How is the new armaments program any different?

Also, the military wanted 55 trillion originally, or something like that. So are you people saying that 55 trillion, so over 5 trillion only for procurement was ever ever seriously considered by anyone!? Can Franco clear things up?

But I'll repeat one last time that my main issue was not the current spending per se, a little over 2 trillion makes sense currently. Which is indeed something like $80 billion in 2013's exchange rate... so it's certainly the whole budget (just realized that). The issue was that it makes no sense in the long term, by the early 2020s, as the economy grows, not to mention inflation, etc.. Especially when it's seems to be slightly less than that (1.9 trillion per year, or so).

24 trillion would've actually made much more sense, but that should've been the lowest realistic amount, and even then, only for the next 5 years (I mean 2.4t a year), not 10. Anything below that for the next 10 years is utter BS.

I'll stop here for now, don't worry.  

 

Kimppis wrote:Thanks. So the actual (official) spending is closer to 3 trillion? Yeah, now it's starting to make sense. The way media is reporting about these things is not helping at all...

But even then, I think they will increase budget by the early 2020s anyway, because even 3 trillion won't be a lot by then, possibly. It simply doesn't make sense to keep the budget at the same level as the economy will most probably be much larger in 2025 than in 2018. These massive, decade long programs don't make much sense to me from that perspective... But I think Franco wrote earlier that they will "review" the program every 5 years, so there's that.  

And as you said, it's obvious that their maintenance costs are ridiculously low compared to the west and the US in particular. Russia has been massively improving the social aspects as well as professionalizing the military with basically nothing (in dollar terms).

Yes, very conservative plans indeed. I just find it problematic from "messaging" point of view... Some people will take those numbers too seriously. And also it can be used as a major part of anti-Russian propaganda. "Look at their pathetic economy, it's in tatters, that spending is so low (in dollar terms, of course), and it's not going to improve in all that time, blah blah..." Of course they're going to spin everything somehow, we have seen that, but still...

franco wrote:That's why its called procurement plan. Lets not forget that Russian military spending itself is within 900B Rubles a year, while Rosvardi gets 1.2T


Where did this come from?

- Last years the annual defense spending did not exceed 2.9 trillion rubles. But last year the Ministry of Finance paid 800 billion rubles of state guarantees for loans to enterprises of the defense industry complex. Then the department paid an extra 200 billion rubles for these needs. It was this trillion rubles that led to an increase in spending on national defense in 2016 to 3.9 trillion rubles, "he explained.

According to the expert, this year the expenses will return to the usual 2.9 trillion rubles and this amount will not change much in the next three years. According to the expert, because of Russia's growing geopolitical situation, it is necessary to increase defense spending - their reduction will lead to the disruption of the rearmament program.

Kimppis wrote:Thanks. So the actual (official) spending is closer to 3 trillion? Yeah, now it's starting to make sense. The way media is reporting about these things is not helping at all...
.

Kimppis wrote:
But even then, I think they will increase budget by the early 2020s anyway, because even 3 trillion won't be a lot by then, possibly. It simply doesn't make sense to keep the budget at the same level as the economy will most probably be much larger in 2025 than in 2018..

At two large Volgograd industrial enterprises connected with the execution of the defense order - the metallurgical combine Krasny Oktyabr and the metallurgical plant of the same name, an emergency situation developed. Under threat of failure of the state order on manufacturing of special products for the Russian Navy submarine fleet. Experts consider it necessary to intervene in the situation of the federal center and introduce temporary crisis management at enterprises.

As NG sources told factory managers, in 2013 the plant and Krasny Oktyabr plant, long-standing partners of the Defense Ministry, received a state defense order for the manufacture of eight special buildings for nuclear reactors of nuclear submarines: "The project also involved an association Sevmash, the leading institute of metallurgy Prometheus and the Afrikantov OKBM. The execution of the state order was calculated for five years, the term of its implementation expires in May 2018. Volgograd enterprises immediately received an advance payment of 2.5 billion rubles. However, as of today, only three out of eight products are ready. The process of working on the remaining five is actually frozen. The defense order on the verge of failure, in time to fulfill it in the remaining time, according to experts, is almost unrealistic. "

The critical situation at the plant and the Krasny Oktyabr plant was already of interest to law enforcement agencies, as well as the federal Center. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin was informed about the threat of disruption of the state defense order. "Now there is a search for options for responding to the current state of emergency," a source in the regional administration told NG. "The situation is complicated by the fact that Dmitry Gerasimenko, the main shareholder of both metallurgical enterprises engaged in the defense order, is not available for communication and is rumored to be either in Cyprus, whether in Italy, or in Ukraine."

According to media reports, in August of last year Gerasimenko was arrested in absentia by the Tverskoi District Court of Moscow at the request of the Moscow Main Investigation Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and is suspected of involvement in the theft of a loan of $ 65 million allocated by VTB to replenish the working capital of the Krasny Oktyabr plant. Sources close to the management of the Volgograd metallurgical enterprises do not exclude that the disruption of the defense contract could turn out to be a kind of revenge on the part of Gerasimenko for his persecution by Russian law enforcers.

The former head of the Red October enterprises Valery Yavetsky said in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "if the situation does not change very quickly, soon there will be no one to carry out the state defense order at the metallurgical enterprises": "At present, the plants are dismantling and cutting for scrap metal machine tools, directly involved in the production of special steels. At the same time, there are dismissals of workers of enterprises, and the remaining ones are reduced by wages. So, if in December 2016 the number of employees at the Red October factory was about 5200 people, in October 2017 it is already less than 4 thousand people. At the Krasny Oktyabr plant, the number of employees decreased from 1100 people to less than 800. The average salary for the same period fell by 20-30%, from 32.5 thousand to less than 27 thousand rubles. "

Volgograd enterprises of the Red October, according to military experts, play a significant role in providing the Russian Army with artillery and tank guns. At the enterprises there are three unique machines of centrifugal casting, with the help of which artillery trunks of different calibres are made. However, in a few months it will not be possible to do so, as the plant management plans to carry the machines. Against this were the specialists of the profile CNIITMASH who believe that in this case the quality of military products will inevitably deteriorate and the percentage of marriage in production will grow.

The threat of disruption of the state order for the Russian Navy's submarine fleet Valery Yavetsky links with the termination of repair of equipment in the workshop for the production of nuclear energy products: "Since April 2017, all types of repair work have been stopped to maintain hazardous production facilities in an efficient condition. The reason for this is the lack of funding and the dismissal of qualified specialists. "

In history, with the disruption of the defense order, local observers familiar with the situation started talking about the "Ukrainian trace" as well. Sources of "NG" in the "Red October" companies have reported that in the absence of Dmitri Gerasimenko financial and economic issues of companies engaged in the mother Svetlana Gerasimenko owners who not only has the Ukrainian nationality, but supposedly resides in Dnepropetrovsk: "Svetlana Borisovna provides for telephone instructions, what figures to write in the reports, including those related to the execution of the defense order, manage the economy of both enterprises. " According to some employees of the plant "Red October", "the real management of enterprises today is in the hands of individuals with Ukrainian citizenship."

"Of course, in itself the presence of Ukrainian passports from real leaders of Volgograd metallurgical enterprises is not compromising," political expert Yevgeniy Kalinin commented on the situation. "However, given the complicated relationship between Moscow and Kiev, as well as the threat of disrupting the state defense order at the plant and the Krasny Oktyabr plant, we can assume that all this will interest not only the supporters of the conspiracy theory, but also the practically practical Russian security forces."

Valery Yavetsky, however, believes that today we should not look for the "hand of Kiev" in a crisis situation at Volgograd enterprises, but by mobilizing all the resources and opportunities that can correct it as soon as possible: "I see no other way than intervention by the federal government and the introduction of temporary crisis management at the plant and the plant "Red October" - they need to be saved together, they are closed in a single technological chain. Without this, it is not necessary to count on the further successful work of the metallurgical enterprises in fulfilling the defense order. "

Moscow. November 28. INTERFAX.RU - Nearly 6.8 trillion rubles in the next three years will be allocated from the budget for spending in the field of national defense, said Deputy Finance Minister Leonid Gornin.

"The project of the federal budget in 2018-2020 cost in the field of national defense and national security, law enforcement activities recorded in the amount of 2 trillion 271 billion rubles, in 2019 - 2 trillion 228 billion rubles and 2020 - 2 trillion 295 billion rubles," - said Gornin during a meeting of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security.

"The current maintenance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, including food, transportation, infrastructure maintenance in 2018, we adjusted to the amount of more than 62 billion rubles, the implementation by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of certain measures in 2018 to the amount of more than 14 billion rubles, to pay for utilities and the provision of fuel and fuel, as well as food in 2018, was additionally provided for 23 billion rubles, "Gornin said. The Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security approved the draft budget.

The State Duma last week adopted in the third and final reading the law on the federal budget for 2018-2020. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, commenting on the adoption of the budget in the third reading, said that its main indicator, "where we see development, is the growth of the gross domestic product."

The budget revenues in 2018 will be 15.258 trillion rubles, expenditures - 16.529 trillion rubles, deficit - 1.3% of GDP. Revenues in 2019 are planned in the amount of 15.555 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.374 trillion rubles, deficit - 0.8% of GDP. In 2020, revenues are laid at 16.285 trillion rubles, expenditures - 17.155 trillion rubles, a deficit - 0.8% of GDP.

According to the document, the base oil and gas revenues in 2018 will amount to 5.480 trillion rubles, in 2019 - 5.247 trillion rubles, in 2020 - 5.440 trillion rubles. In this case, non-oil revenues in 2018 will be equal to 9.779 trillion rubles, in 2019 - 10.307 trillion rubles, in 2020 - 10.845 trillion rubles.