Russian-Armenian military cooperation

Meeting of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu and the head of the military department of Armenia Suren Papikyan

The decision of the Constitution Court of Armenia wasn't related to Putin. It was the request from government to implement court process against Azerbaijan according to Rome Statue of International court. So Armenia's Constitution Court reviewed and didn't find anything to object. Has nothing to do with Russia.

As for threatning Armenia, Russia singlehandedly allowed Azerbaijan attack sovereign Armenian territory after which Azerbaijan captured Armenian territories back in September 2022. Even though, Russia has agreement to protect Armenia, they just ignored the help requests of Armenia.

The overall view of Armenians against Russia shifted dramatically. Which was already troubled after the second NKR war. Understandably, Russia needs Turkish block during the war in Ukraine and because of the ongoing sanctions. They seem to be fine to sacrifice they only allied country in the region. Armenians were allied with Russia mainly because of security, now that neither Russia or CSTO don't bother to protect Armenians against Turks, I don't realistically see a reason for expecting Armenia to stay in Russian block.

Weather you like Pashinyan or no, governments comes and goes but the behavior of Russia against Armenian people and the harm it caused may become irreversible.

It's a complicated situation as the CSTO is not actually worth shit, Kazakhstan is sucking up to the Anglo-Saxons and now implementing demands to stop the re-export of sanctioned goods to Russia, the rest of the Central Asian states will have no enthusiasm for getting involved in Karabakh either. Remember these are all Muslim countries, Turkic as well with the exception of Tajikistan. If Russia attempts to mobilize the CSTO, it will be the end of it.

While the Azeris did attack Armenia proper, Armenian forces are effectively on Azeri territory too - so there isn't much for Russia or the CSTO to do there. If they threaten Azerbaijan or even just tell it to cut the provocations, then Azerbaijan will just point out that the Armenians have occupied its territory first, and they are acting in self-defense, and that the CSTO/Russia have no right to interfere as a defensive alliance. Furthermore, Pashinyan did not implement the agreement signed between him and Aliyev under Putin's mediation, at least according to the Azeris.

A claim which I can totally believe, as Pashinyan himself is a Soros-tool no less than Sandu in Moldova, and he has manipulated the situation to serve Western interests. Aliyev with Turkish encouragement took advantage of his election to attack Karabakh. Russia has been completely outmaneuvered and indeed is on its way out of the region, for which it can only blame its own arrogance and complacency. For another mistake that Russia made was selling weapons to Azerbaijan over the last 20 years. So I can completely understand Armenian sentiment - even though it is naive and self-defeating, it is basically correct; Russia did sacrifice Armenia to prioritize its own interests.
However Russia's loss in the South Caucasus is not Armenia's gain. the Azeris won't agree to extending the Russian peacekeeping contingent's presence in Karabakh either, and more than likely they will leave and EU forces will attempt to come in and serve as the new sponsor of Armenia and the Karabakh Armenians - at which point you would end up in a new war by 2025. Western sponsorship did not end well for the Syrian Kurds and won't end well for the Armenians, or at least, it will be up to the Armenians and nobody else to defend their land.

The best outcome would have been if the Armenian population did not gulp down the CIA cool aid and elect this cool-hip baseball cap wearing Pashinyan in the first place with all his typical anti-corruption slogans, and keep the Russia-loyal old guard in place. Then the Erdogan-Aliyev axis would not have sniffed an opportunity like the hyenas they are (Erdogan at least), and the war in 2020 would not have happened. But that's history now.

Main thing for Armenia is now not to lose never-mind Karabakh (which now hangs entirely on its ability to military defend it by itself), but Zangezur, because Azerbaijan and at least someone in the Turkic Union has already been making veiled claims towards it. Armenia keeping control of this territory will be a vital matter for both Russia and Iran too, so you can still count on their assistance in this question; it would be foolish to swap Russian/Iranian support in regards to Zangezur for EU/NATO guarantees. China will probably back Armenia too; because no-one in China wants to see some Islamist or Panturk shitstains running around knifing people in the Xinjiang province (Uighurstan) again, buoyed on by Erdogan's troublemaking there after he has secured a direct land-sea corridor to Central Asia.
So Armenian, stop complaining, we're stuck with each other no matter how double-dealing and clueless Moscow has proven to be.

The EU/NATO forces will get to Armenia through Georgia. Ultimately, NATO will be looking to expand to Azerbaijan as well through regime-change later on. In this case, Armenia might actually benefit, but it's unlikely the West will succeed in that, and no assurance they will attempt it either. They could decide to cut a deal with Azerbaijan ultimately at say Iran's and Armenia's expense.
The main thing to remember is that all this pan-Turkic shenanigance is not a security threat to the EU. It's a security threat to Russia, Iran, Armenia, China and other countries of the region. The West's main issue with Turkey and Azerbaijan, is that these countries are not under their control and not anti-Russian/anti-Chinese enough. That's what all their support of Kurds, Armenians, etc... is all ultimately about, trying to tame these nations by gaining levers of pressure over them, and by extension over the energy routes from the Caspian that go through Azerbaijan/Turkey too.

From Armenia's point of view, Moscow is unreliable, and building relations with the West is a good idea even without this Pashinyan schmuck. But the Armenians would be foolish to consider the West as permanent allies. It's enough to remember the Anglo-French, and then German patronage of Ottoman Turkey, or Hitler's formation of the Turkestan Legion. The permanent allies of the Armenians are the other countries that are historic rivals of Turkey. That's Russia & Iran.

Kazakhstan is not going to try anything openly. They are not going to be attacked by Russia and China either in any but the most dire situation, as that would open up a whole other can of worms. Kazakhstan is basically just going to continue maneuvering between Russia and the West, attempting to do so between Russia and China, and perhaps in the future between China and the West.

Iran will support even a pro-Western Armenia, well essentially Armenia is a cloaked pro-Western country already, simply because its in their security interests to do so. Iran can afford to do so as it cares little about relations with Azerbaijan who it views for the Israeli ally that it is, nor does it have many interests in Central Asia. But Iran itself is a country that is subject to sectarian and separatist pressures; including among the Azeri population of its northern provinces. It's all latent for now, but if it ever happens then it will be a nightmare scenario for Armenia.

Armenia is of vital importance to Russia as a means of preventing a land-corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

flamming_python wrote: Armenia is of vital importance to Russia as a means of preventing a land-corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Russia seems to favor Azerbaijan more than Armenia however

Zangizur is not under threat as yet, so the question is not on the table. Not openly at any rate.

Right now Russia is attempting to build influence over Azerbaijan and rip it away from its remaining ties with the West, by including it in the North-South transport corridor between Russia and India via Iran. Russia and Azerbaijan have reopened roads and railway crossings closed earlier, and there are plans for increasing rail transit and other things.

This would entail a warming in Azeri-Iranian relations. I'd remind you that aside from its gas transit significance and oil wealth, Azerbaijan's other chief value for the US in particular, is its location north of Iran. And now south of Russia too I suppose. Azerbaijan has a lot of tensions with Iran over the Karabakh issue and historically, but integrating it in such a massive infrastructure project over time could change its trajectory, as indeed the EU did for many European countries.
Thus in the quest for this achievement, among other developments, Russia is on its best behavior at the moment vis-a-vis Baku.

The economy is a good point. Indeed Russia's and China's leverage over Kazakhstan is huge at the moment. Also Kazakhstan is not openly hostile or doing things it can't find a justification for. If its acting against being used as a re-export hub for sanctioned goods to Russia, then it can always say to Russia that it's simply acting to avoid sanctions being placed on it itself, which is also true.

Due to the earthquake in Turkey, by various estimates they've gone from looking forward to 5% GDP growth this year, to now being lucky if they escape with less than a 4% contraction. The damage is that bad.
I'm not gloating or anything over it, a rich Turkey is no bad thing, just saying, this disaster will have its effect on geopolitics too.

I know Tokayev was indeed pushing hard to get Russia's assistance and they got it. We are unsure what the exact situation is happening in the country and it could be Tokayev vs half the government who is pro west.

One would think that these morons would catch the hint with the current Ukraine war that Russia is willing to go all in if it risks their interests. But you are right, they aren't doing anything that is considered hostile while still going around saying Russia is their key ally. So who knows.

The issue is that the EU has just threatened to sanction 3rd countries which allow the re-export of EU sanctioned goods to Russia.
Kazakhstan has already replied that its working on the problem, and now the other Central Asian states could (if they are so inclined) follow suit. And simply say to Moscow that they are not doing anything unfriendly, they just don't want to be sanctioned.
The West in this case will have succeeded in simultaneously issuing a threat and supplying an excuse for them.

Well it's still early days with this cheap tactic, so we'll have to see how it goes from here.

If Kazakhstan enacts EU sanctions on Russia they will likely be breaking the rules of the EAEU.

34% of Kazakhstan's imports come from Russia. They import more from Russia than the whole G7.

Exports of Kazakh oil go through a pipeline across Russian territory. 50% of Kazakhstan's exports are oil.
https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/pipeline-critical-to-kazakh-oil-exports-ordered-to-halt-operations-by-russian-court/

80% of Kazakh oil exports go through the port at Novorossiysk.

If Russia shuts down trade to and from Kazakhstan, they will be headed to the shitter simply put.

Kazakhstan is not going to enact EU sanctions on Russia, but ensure that sanctioned EU products do not make their way to Russia via them.

And yes after a certain point it switches from looking out for your own interests, to running after the coat-tails of the retreating from the world West pleading for them to take you along, because you are desperate for a partner to make Russophobic moves with.

Only question is whether this is the result of Tokayev's attempt at continuing Nazarbayev's 'multivector' foreign policy, or whether he just hasn't wrested enough power from the Western-loyal elites of Kazakhstan that were fostered for 20 years under Nazarbayev.
I'm guessing the later, as Tokayev is someone who worked for a long time in both Russia and China, he knows these countries very well, the importance of them to Kazakhstan, and the changes that are going on in the world right now; whereas searching for a 3rd partner to work with shouldn't be more trouble than it's worth.
While on the other hand, the process of legitimization and gathering support is still ongoing, Kazakhstan only just had its parliamentary elections this past week. There is other evidence too that certain people with power are sabotaging Russian-Kazakh relations, not necessarily related to any decisions of the president there.

The Azerbaijani TG channel Caliber, controlled by MI6, writes that intensive consultations took place between the United States and Armenia at the level of senior officials .

On them, the United States committed itself to fully support Armenia in the event of pressure from the Russian Federation or the introduction of a trade embargo and to apply the following measures:

• Provide the Armenian Armed Forces with military equipment, uniforms and weapons. Provide technical support to the country's security agencies.

• Ensure supplies of diesel fuel and energy resources to Armenia, as well as nuclear fuel for the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant.

• If necessary, put American satellite Internet at the disposal of Armenian Internet providers.

• Ensure supplies of wheat and wheat flour to Armenia, which the country currently imports from the Russian Federation.

• If Armenia faces a foreign currency shortage due to possible sanctions from the Russian Federation, Washington should cover it.

Everything has its own price tag : for these “cookies” Armenia pledged to withdraw Russian troops from the base in Gyumri and withdraw from the CSTO and the EAEU. It was these negotiations that became the reason for canceling Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to the CSTO meeting in Minsk on November 23.

Slavyangrad

https://twitter.com/dana916/status/1724637013507285356