Turkish Stream pipeline: News

A Color Revolution for Macedonia

Paul Craig Roberts

During the Cold War Washington was concerned about communists fomenting street protests that they could turn into revolutions, with groomed politicians waiting in the wings to take over the new government, thus expanding the Soviet empire. Today this is precisely what Washington does.
We recently witnessed this operation in Ukraine and now it seems to be underway in Macedonia.
The National Endowment for Democracy was established in 1983. The official purpose is to promote democracy abroad. The real purpose was to create dissension in Soviet Eastern Europe. Today the NED uses our tax money to overthrow governments not aligned with Washington.
The NED funds non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in countries targeted by Washington for political destabilization. These NGOs operate under such rubrics as “teaching democracy” and “human rights.” The NGOs develop cadres consisting of idealistic students and disgruntled politicians and set them against the existing government whose independence Washington wishes to curtail.
The idealistic students are simply dupes, and the disgruntled politicians simply desire power in office and will serve Washington in order to get it.
According to Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, Washington spent $5 billion in Ukraine grooming politicians and creating NGOs as Washington’s Fifth Columns. When Ukraine’s president Viktor Yanukovich refused to align Ukraine with Washington’s interests, Washington unleashed its Fifth Columns, and Yanukovich’s government was overthrown with violence. Despite Washington’s talk about democracy, the fact that Yanukovich’s government was democratically elected and a new election was only a few months away did not stop Washington from overthrowing Yanukovich.
Now the same fate seems in store for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgystan, and Macedonia. Most Americans don’t know where these places are. Armenia and Azerbaijan are east of the Caspian Sea and are former provinces of the Soviet Union. Kyrgystan is a former Soviet province that borders China. Macedonia, birthplace of Alexander the Great, is a part of northern Greece, but in the 20th century portions of Macedonia became parts of Bulgaria, Serbia, and Albania before becoming a province in Yugoslavia. When Washington destroyed Yugoslavia, Macedonia became an independent republic of two million people. Macedonia is landlocked and surrounded by Greece on the south, Bulgaria on the east, Albania on the west, and by Serbia and Washington-created Kosovo on the north.
Why is Washington interested in controlling Macedonia?
The Macedonian government refused to participate in Washington’s sanctions against Russia and supports the Russian Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline that will deliver Russian natural gas to Europe via Turkey to the Greek border.
Greece is being looted by the European Union, the IMF, and the German and Dutch banks. Consequently, Greece is being pushed into Russia’s arms as Russian support is Greece’s only alternative to the crippling austerity that the EU is forcing upon the Greek people. Macedonia sits between Greece and Serbia, a country with no love lost for Washington and the EU as a result of Serbia’s dismemberment by Washington and NATO aggression. Washington fears the flow of Russian energy, over which Washington would have no control, into its European vassal states via Russian allies in Europe.
If Washington can grab Macedonia, Washington can stand between Greece and Serbia and perhaps persuade Greece to align with a Washington-supported natural gas pipeline that would supply Europe from Azerbaijan, thus reducing Russia’s influence in Europe.
Macedonia has an Albanian minority population. Albania is a Washington vassal and NATO member. Washington has aligned with the dissident Albanians, demonstrators are in the streets, the Macedonian government is accused of corruption as was the Ukrainian government, and the US State Department is expressing its concerns about the Macedonian political crisis that Washington has orchestrated.
Washington is forever talking about democracy and human rights but has no respect for either. Washington uses these words as assertions of their absence in governments Washington intends to overthrow.
The Russian government understands the unfolding events. Whether the Russian government has learned its lesson from standing aside while the Ukrainian government was overthrown remains to be seen.
From an American perspective, as contrasted with Washington’s perspective, the question is whether the reckless pursuit of US hegemony is worth the risk of war with Russia and China. The neoconservatives, who have an iron grip on US foreign policy, believe that hegemony is worth any risk. But do Americans derive sufficient vicarious pleasure from a handful of neocons lording it over the world to accept the risk of nuclear war?
The naked aggression that Washington is displaying toward Russia should alarm not only the American people but also the entire world. War is in the making. War with Russia means war also with China. This is not a war that Washington and its vassals or human life can win.

A Color Revolution for Macedonia

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/05/22/color-revolution-macedonia-paul-craig-roberts/

July 17, 2015 Alexei Lossan, RBTH

Gazprom is halving capacity for its Turkish Stream pipeline, which extends from Russia to Turkey and then to southern Europe. The Russian natural gas monopoly has cancelled a deal with an Italian contractor to lay Black Sea pipelines. Experts believe that the Turkish Stream is now destined to be a local project.

Gazprom, the Russian gas monopolist, is halving the transit capacity of the Turkish Stream pipeline, which extends from Russia to Turkey and then to southern Europe, cutting to 32 billion cubic meters the volume of gas it can carry. Business daily Kommersant says the company has frozen its investments in the South Corridor project, which was supposed to take gas to the future pipeline. Market observers say that the Turkish Stream may turn into a local Russian-Turkish project, and that Gazprom will instead expand its North Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea.

The South Corridor project was planned to supply gas to the South Stream pipeline, which was supposed to run along the Black Sea seabed from Russia to Bulgaria, and after the South Stream was cancelled, to the Turkish Stream. Kommersant says Gazprom halted work on the eastern - the longest and most expensive - branch and now plans on finishing the western branch. The length of the western branch is 547 miles and the eastern - 1,010 miles. At the start of 2015 Gazprom invested almost 300 billion rubles (£3.3 billion/$5.2 billion). Gazprom has declined to comment.
Italian contractor Saipem says that it has received a notice from Gazprom stopping their collaboration. A vessel belonging to the Italian company had been moored in Russian waters, waiting to start laying the pipeline on the seabed of the Black Sea. Gazprom has agreed to pay all penalties associated with the six months it had kept Saipem waiting, which Kommersant says amounts $300 million.
The Russian government denies there is any relation between the annulment of the contract and the possible reduction of the Turkish Stream's capacity. "The cancellation of the contract between Gazprom and the Italian contractor Saipem will not influence the Turkish Stream project," Alexander Novak, Russia's energy minister, claims.

"The South Corridor project is a priority for Gazprom. It is actively being carried out and no one plans on 'freezing' it," Dmitri Baranov of consultants Finam Holding says. "Furthermore, a significant amount of work has already been done on the project." If the Turkish Stream project is cut back, it will be transformed into a local project that will supply gas only to Turkey, he adds. "As of today no agreements on gas transit through Turkish territory have been signed," Baranov says. "If the agreement on transit is signed, then it will be yet another direction for Russian gas supplies to Europe. But it will only add to the existing directions, not replace them."
In June 2015 Gazprom, Shell, OMV and E. On signed a memorandum on the construction of a second North Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea with an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. "The signed memorandum, in essence, is only an agreement of intent, it is not binding," says UFS IC chief analyst Ilya Balakirev. The existing two branches of the North Stream are only half loaded due to regulations of the EU's Third Energy Package, he says. EU anti-monopoly rules forbid one company from supplying gas and controlling its transit. Ideally, Gazprom would like to have both projects, but it is important for the company to show its partners that it can effectively renounce one project for the other, as it helps strengthen a company's negotiating position, Balakirev adds.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Lenta.ru reports that Russia and Turkey have put the Turkish Stream pipeline on hold because of disagreement of the discount for Turkey.

Turkey is a strong geopolitical player. They realize that Russia is in a tough spot now so they want to milk as much money from Russia as possible.

Project Canada wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:Lenta.ru reports that Russia and Turkey have put the Turkish Stream pipeline on hold because of disagreement of the discount for Turkey.

Turkey is a strong geopolitical player. They realize that Russia is in a tough spot now so they want to milk as much money from Russia as possible.

The Russian empire should have conquered the Ottomans as far as the Bosphorus strait and liberated Constantinople

Karl Haushofer wrote:Lenta.ru reports that Russia and Turkey have put the Turkish Stream pipeline on hold because of disagreement of the discount for Turkey.

Turkey is a strong geopolitical player. They realize that Russia is in a tough spot now so they want to milk as much money from Russia as possible.

(Reuters) - Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday there was a risk construction of an underwater pipeline to Turkey could be delayed if a related intergovernmental agreement was not signed soon, the Interfax news agency reported.

Russia's Gazprom is yet to start laying pipes beneath the Black Sea for the first line of the TurkStream pipeline, which was expected to start operations by 2017 and bring 15.75 billion cubic metres (bcm) to Turkey annually.

"If construction does not start, it is obvious that the schedule is moving," Novak was quoted as saying.

TurkStream is supposed to bring a total of 63 bcm of gas per year to Turkey and to southern Europe via Greece by 2020 -- a project aimed at bypassing Ukraine as a key transit country for Russian gas flowing to Europe.

Earlier in July, Gazprom cancelled a contract with Italy's Saipem to build a link to Turkey but Russian officials have said Moscow was continuing to work on the project.

On Tuesday, a Russian Energy Ministry official said Moscow had offered to sign an intergovernmental agreement on the first line only and Ankara was yet to reply.

Turkey wanted a bigger gas discount before agreeing to sign an intergovernmental deal, sources previously told Reuters.

Separately, Novak said on Wednesday Moscow had no plans to discuss oil production cuts with OPEC during Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri's visit to Moscow on Thursday. (Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, Katya Golubkova and Denis Pinchuk, Editing by Jason Bush and Mark Potter)

JohninMK wrote:Looks like the gloves are now well and truly off on the potential gas routes through Turkey. Clearly Russia does not want to be left with a licence for one new pipe, only for supply to Turkey, if gas from the Gulf pipes are sorted and kill TurkStream. So Moscow is playing hardball now they have the prospect of doubling NordStream capacity. It also helps emphasise to the EU that they really need to start seriously thinking about the southern route for gas into Europe that someone, other than Gazprom, is going to have to organise, fund and build once it crosses the EU border. Below is part of the link in the post above.

Negotiations between Russia and Turkey over the TurkStream natural gas pipeline project have been put on hold after Moscow refused to sign off on a key gas price discount agreement, media reports said Friday. Ankara obtained a 10.25 percent price discount on the 28-30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas it buys from Russia, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said in February, but the discount, which should have been in effect as of January 2015, still needs a final signature.

The deputy head of Russia’s Gazprom Company, Alexander Medvedev, earlier said that the deal was scheduled to be finalized before the end of this month, along with an intergovernmental agreement on the implementation of the TurkStream project. Turkish officials have said another sticking point in the talks has been Russia's insistence that Ankara grant permits for the construction work on four planned lines in the project. Turkey has so far only given licenses for the first line.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150731/1025243632.html#ixzz3hSmB4Bfl

Viktor wrote:Interesting article  

Novak: "Gazprom" has agreed with Turkey discount

Россия изначально предлагала Турции скидку в 6%, но турки ожидали скидку в 15%.
Затем Botas потребовал скидку в 10,25% к базовой цене без привязки к меняющейся цене нефти, которая сейчас низка, но вырастет в будущем.

sepheronx wrote:Gazprom is well known for inflating prices and giving prices of all types to various customers.

sepheronx wrote:At least Ukraine won't be getting anymore discounts.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said that Turkey and Russia disagree on a variety of political issues, but the construction of a joint pipeline under the Black Sea to bring gas to Europe has not been affected.

ANKARA (Sputnik) — Turkish companies will participate in the construction of the surface portion of the Turkish stream gas pipeline, Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said Tuesday.

Moscow and Ankara are currently discussing construction of the pipeline's first leg. After media reports in late July suggested that pipeline talks had been suspended due to a disagreement on price discounts, Turkish Ambassador to Russia Umit Yardim said that gas prices remained one of the key points in negotiations.

"Turkish companies will take part in the construction of the Turkish Stream in Thrace [the region on borders of Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey]. Russian colleagues know that we have solid experience in pipelines construction, as well as modern technologies. I hope, we will use it," Yildiz told Anadolu news agency.
The minister said that Turkey will not take part in the construction of the underwater sections of the pipeline in the Black Sea.

The Turkish Stream pipeline will run from Russia to Turkey underneath the Black Sea with an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters of gas. The pipeline will run to a hub on the Turkish-Greek border, from where it could be extended to southern Europe.

Yildiz underscored that Turkey was Russia’s second largest gas importer and a major trade partner.
He admitted that Moscow and Ankara had differences over the Syrian conflict. Another sticking point is whether to use the word "genocide" when describing the 1915 massacre of 800,000 to 1.5 million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, a UN definition that Ankara refuses to recognize.

The energy minister stressed that joint projects, like the natural gas pipeline from Russia across the Black Sea to Turkey, are "isolated from politics."

The pipeline, dubbed Turkish Stream, was announced late last year after Russia scrapped a South Stream pipeline following a deadlock with Brussels over its anti-monopoly legislation.

Turkey will build the sections of the pipeline that run across its territory and receive a 10.25-percent discount on Russian gas purchases, the agency said. An inter-governmental agreement on the gas transit pipeline remains to be ratified by the Turkish parliament.

TurkStream will reduce its reliance on Ukraine for sending natural gas to Europe

Forecast

• Turkey will maintain the upper hand in negotiations with Russia over the TurkStream pipeline. Ankara will use its position to secure major discounts on natural gas from Gazprom.

• Russia will use TurkStream to reduce its reliance on Ukraine's pipelines for sending natural gas to Europe, though it will never completely abandon Ukrainian infrastructure.

• Gazprom will continue to test the boundaries of European energy legislation, but it will ultimately comply with the Continent's regulations.

• Though new geopolitical realities are limiting Russia's energy leverage over Europe, pipeline politics will remain an important component of Russo-European relations in the coming years.

Analysis

Editor's note: Stratfor closely monitors the ebbs and flows of world energy. Aside from production, the transportation of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products is of paramount concern for oil-producing nations. For energy consumers, transit routes are indispensible lifelines. A huge amount of the world's energy is transited through pipelines, across the Eurasian landmass in particular. In this periodic series we will examine some of the most geopolitically significant pipelines running through Europe and Asia. In this installment, Stratfor examines TurkStream, the successor to South Stream, from the Russian perspective.

Since Vladimir Putin came to power in the late 1990s, Russia's natural resources have formed the foundation of Moscow's attempts to assert its power abroad. To leverage those resources, the Kremlin has woven an intricate network of pipelines across Europe that has accorded Russia powerful political influence for a decade.

Despite Moscow's best efforts to maintain its sway over the Continent, Europe has succeeded in eroding Russia's energy leverage over the past few years. The latest battle has played out over Russia's TurkStream project, a natural gas pipeline formerly known as Turkish Stream that would circumvent Ukraine, sending Russian energy exports to Southern and Central Europe through Turkey instead. But finalizing the plans for the project has not been easy for Russia; though it has signed a deal with Greece, an agreement with Turkey remains elusive. Russia is hoping to push forward with building the first phase of TurkStream, which would bring natural gas to Greece and Turkey, while buying itself time to sort through the politics of the second construction phase — increasing the pipeline's capacity and connecting it to the rest of Europe.
TurkStream: Two projects in one

Gazprom, Russia's state-owned natural gas monopoly, envisions TurkStream as a network comprising four parallel pipelines running under the Black Sea to western Turkey. Together, the pipelines would have a total capacity of 63 billion cubic meters (roughly 15.75 bcm per pipeline) and would cost between $10 billion and $15 billion. Like its canceled South Stream predecessor, TurkStream is designed to send approximately half its capacity to Greece and Turkey while diverting the other half north into Central Europe.

To achieve both phases of the project, Russia would first need to secure the Turkish and Greek markets to support the project's first half. Only then could Gazprom proceed with its second phase, building the final three pipelines that would stretch onward to other European consumers. Combined with the Greek deal already in place, a final agreement with Turkey would do just that, guaranteeing a customer base for the project's initial infrastructure. As with South Stream, Gazprom and the Kremlin are looking to jump-start TurkStream's construction as quickly as possible.

By comparison, Russia is proceeding much more cautiously in its attempts to move forward with TurkStream's second phase. Gazprom's previous strategy of trying to control the entities involved in the construction and operation of the Bulgarian segment of the South Stream pipeline ultimately shuttered the project because it flouted the legislation of Europe's Third Energy Package. This time, Gazprom has changed its model, choosing instead to leave Russia's natural gas at Europe's doorstep, hoping to entice European companies and countries into approaching it with offers of partnerships. Russia recognizes that any expansion of the TurkStream pipeline into the Continent will likely need to be led, financed and constructed by Europe itself.

Given this calculation, Russia's hurried efforts to begin construction on TurkStream are meant to convince Europe that its intention to stop using Ukraine as a natural gas transit state when Gazprom's contract with Ukraine's Naftogaz expires at the end of 2018 is not a bluff. Constructing even part of the TurkStream project would be a concrete step in that direction, which Russia hopes would give potential European investors more confidence in future pipeline expansions into Central and Southern Europe.
Pipeline politics

Many factors besides economics will determine the viability of the TurkStream project. Much of the last decade has seen a number of competing pipeline proposals — Nabucco West, Blue Stream II, Nabucco and South Stream, to name a few — falter and fail, in large part because of political factors that ultimately shaped final investment decisions. The environment TurkStream must navigate is no less complex, and each player involved in the project has a different and often competing set of objectives to meet.

Russia, for its part, has a clear rationale for pushing forward with TurkStream. The stated purpose of the project is to diversify away from using Ukraine as a transit state for natural gas being sent to Europe for economic and security reasons. Gazprom's concerns about Ukraine's unreliability are legitimate and, for the company, a sufficient reason to look for alternative routes. Disputes between Gazprom and Ukraine have forced Russia to take into account not only Kiev's actions but also any disputes that may hurt downstream customers. Such disputes have twice resulted in natural gas cutoffs, and Ukraine's subsequent decision to simply keep the natural gas intended for Europe. From the Kremlin's point of view, it should have the ability to cut off supplies to Ukraine if Kiev fails to make its payments without risking Russia's relationships with downstream customers, including Turkey. Beneath this more public line of reasoning is the related motive of maintaining leverage over Ukraine. Natural gas has traditionally provided Moscow with a powerful political tool in its relations with Kiev; having a way to bypass Ukraine as a transit state to Europe would increase the strength and utility of that tool.

Moscow is also looking to maintain Turkey's energy interdependence with Russia. Turkey is already the second-largest European consumer of Russian natural gas, behind only Germany. It is also perhaps the only Gazprom market outside of East Asia that is projected to experience significant growth as it continues to develop.

Turkey, in its own attempts to diversify its energy sources, has taken steps to become a key transit state in Europe's Southern Gas Corridor proposal, which would supply the Continent with natural gas from the Caspian and Middle Eastern regions in the not-too-distant future. Looking for ways to bypass Russia for supplies, Europe has continued to seek out options that limit Russia's involvement in its energy imports, if not exclude it entirely. Because TurkStream would neither increase natural gas flows to Europe nor alleviate bottlenecks in transportation, Brussels has openly questioned the project's viability. Europe's active attempts to facilitate trans-Caspian natural gas routes, as well as thawing relations between the West and Iran, which borders Turkey and holds the world's third-largest reserves of natural gas, have added to Russia's sense of urgency in making progress on the TurkStream pipeline.

Ironically, the Southern Gas Corridor could provide Russia with an alternative route for exporting natural gas to Europe. Russia currently cannot transport natural gas through the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, a Southern Gas Corridor project designed to send natural gas from Azerbaijan and possibly Central Asia to Italy, because of an exemption in EU laws requiring the pipeline be accessible to all potential suppliers. However, the exemption is in place only for the first phase of the project; if the pipeline were to expand, non-Azerbaijani suppliers (including Russia) could use it to send natural gas downstream to Greece and Italy. Since Gazprom's internal production costs will likely always undercut other, more expensive production in the Caspian region, the company would likely retain an edge in negotiations with Central Asian producers over their involvement in future projects transiting the Caspian Sea. Russia has already entered into close talks with Azerbaijan, intending to insert itself into future Southern Corridor projects.

As Russia continues its talks with Turkey to reach a final deal on TurkStream, it will keep looking for ways to move forward on the first phase of the pipeline's construction, despite political resistance from the West. Though Gazprom's South Stream failure will make the company cautious in the future as the project expands into Europe, Russia will at least be able to pursue initial construction unhindered by the Continent's regulations.

kvs wrote:The usual BS from Stratfor.   Russia is not desperate to sell gas to the EU.   Doubling the capacity of Nord Stream will basically
nullify the need for any South Stream variant.   And Russia does not have to bend over for some 3rd rate banana republic attempts
to extort huge financial concessions be it by Ukraine or by Turkey.    The more Turkey acts like Ukraine the less pipeline capacity
it will get.

Turk Stream was an attempt to see if Turkey would become more pragmatic towards Russians national interests, including easing
off its support for ISIS and the attempt to set up a Sunni Sharia toilet in Syria and a big chunk of Iraq.   It looks like Turkey did
not bite, so Turk Stream is basically dead.