Is Chinese space programme a cover for anti-satellite technology
2014-05-30 (by JONATHAN O’CALLAGHAN and from dailymail.co.uk) — On 15 October 2003 China launched their first ‘taikonaut,’ the Chinese term for an astronaut, into space on the Shenzhou 5 spacecraft
This has been followed by further space exploration achievements, including an Earth-orbiting laboratory called Tiangong-1 and a lunar rover named Jade Rabbit.
But is it all a front to build anti-satellite technology? That’s what one expert warns we should be wary of, and not just from China, but Iran and North Korea as well.
A paper by a national security expert claims that China has used performed anti-satellite tests. In 2007 China infamously shot down one of its own weather satellites in a test, creating thousands of new pieces of space junk in orbit. Pictured is a view of the space rocket launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, China
A paper by a national security expert claims that China has used performed anti-satellite tests. In 2007 China infamously shot down one of its own weather satellites in a test, creating thousands of new pieces of space junk in orbit. Pictured is a view of the space rocket launch pad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, China
In a paper called Dangerous Space Incidents, Micah Zenko of the Council on Foreign Relations explains how satellites could be under threat from the rising space exploration capabilities of certain nations.
Such fears are not without precedent; on 11 January 2007 China infamously carried out an anti-satellite missile test, destroying one of its own satellites at a height of 537 miles (865 kilometres).
Aside from resulting in thousands of pieces of dangerous space junk, which remain a problem today, the stunt also highlighted how under vulnerable some of the essential satellites run by Western nations are.
Zenko points to the large amounts of assets held by the US in space that could be prone to attack.
These include satellites for national and global security.
He says that, if a satellite were to be attacked either inadvertently or on purpose, it could fuel an international crisis.
‘The threats to US space assets are significant and growing,’ he writes, ‘as potential adversaries continue to pursue and could soon acquire counterspace capabilities.’
Given the high reliance of the US on satellites, he says the country needs to invest in mitigation measures in the event of an incident from one of a handful of protagonists.
‘Based on capabilities, intent and history of malicious or destabilising behaviour, the state most likely to undertake destabilising actions is China, followed by North Korea and Iran,’ Zenko continues.
As for Russia, though, the country ‘has not recently demonstrated intent to direct malicious and destabilising actions towards US space assets.’
The evidence for such motives can apparently be seen in previous rocket launches.
On 13 May 2013, for example, China launched a rocket from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan Province.
It was, they say, a high-altitude scientific research mission.
But according to Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation and a former US Air Force space analyst it was actually a test of a new ballistic missile.
He says government sources indicated China tested a kinetic interceptor launched by a new rocket that could reach geostationary orbit about 22,500 miles (36,000 kilometres) above Earth, a region used by surveillance satellites.
‘If true, this would represent a significant development in China’s anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities,’ he said.
‘No other country has tested a direct ascent ASAT weapon system that has the potential to reach deep space satellites in medium Earth orbit, highly elliptical orbit or geostationary orbit,’ he continued, referring to orbital paths that are above 1,250 miles (2,000) kilometres.
The Xichang Satellite Launch Center (XSLC) is a launch facility just north of Xichang, China. It is thought that a launch from here on 13 May 2013 was an anti-satellite test. Based on available data, the rocket would theoretically reach point A with a non-rotating Earth but, as Earth rotates, it actually would reach point B
The Xichang Satellite Launch Center (XSLC) is a launch facility just north of Xichang, China. It is thought that a launch from here on 13 May 2013 was an anti-satellite test. Based on available data, the rocket would theoretically reach point A with a non-rotating Earth but, as Earth rotates, it actually would reach point B
Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation claims China has previously tested a satellite interceptor under the guise of its exploration programme. Pictured, the Changzheng-2F rocket with the Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft carrying three Chinese astronauts on 11 June 2013
Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation claims China has previously tested a satellite interceptor under the guise of its exploration programme. Pictured, the Changzheng-2F rocket with the Shenzhou-10 manned spacecraft carrying three Chinese astronauts on 11 June 2013
The solution, according to Zenko, is to push for more transparency when it comes to rocket launches.
For countries like North Korea and Iran, the former of which put its first satellite into space less than two years ago, we know even less about their capabilities.
As popularised in the movie Gravity, there is a large amount of space junk in orbit that could become a growing problem if more satellites are destroyed.
With it becoming cheaper and easier to get into space, a scenario where more and more space junk is created, known as the Kessler syndrome, becomes a greater threat.
Zenko says that China, North Korea and Iran might consider anti-satellite launches ‘during a crisis with the United States or one of its allies to gain bargaining leverage, to deter potential hostile acts or for defensive reasons in anticipation of imminent conflict.’
Aside from the purported test last year Zenko says China has carried out five other anti-satellite ‘missile tests’ in the past.
‘It has conducted ASAT [anti-satellite weapon] tests without warning and signalled intent to undertake malicious actions,’ he says.
‘People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force publications argue that shooting down US early-warning satellites would be a de-escalatory and stabilising action in a naval encounter with the US.’
The Chinese government issued a broad statement in December 2011 on its five-year space programme, saying top priorities include developing three new launch vehicles and mitigating its contribution to space debris. Micah Zenko, however, says we need a true 'Law of Space' to prevent misunderstandings in future
The Chinese government issued a broad statement in December 2011 on its five-year space programme, saying top priorities include developing three new launch vehicles and mitigating its contribution to space debris. Micah Zenko, however, says we need a true ‘Law of Space’ to prevent misunderstandings in future
He says something similar to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which defines nations rights and responsibilities in regards to using the world’s oceans, is needed for space.
Iran, for example, is thought to use lasers and jammers to interfere with US military and commercial space systems with no repurcussions.
Accoring to Zenko, these actions could be misinterpreted as an act of aggression.
A ‘Law of Space’ would prevent such a misunderstanding occurring.
Ultimately, the US and other nations need to set in stone plans ‘to mitigate or prevent dangerous space incidents and limit the multiplication of space debris that threaten US space assets,’ concludes Zenko.
‘On the current path, the likelihood of potentially dangerous space incidents will only increase, whereas a renewed focus on preventing and mitigating such events would markedly reduce this threat.
‘If the United States wishes to better guarantee its access to space as China, North Korea, and Iran advance their capabilities and other space powers emerge, it must intensify its efforts to have an impact or forsake its role in shaping rules of the road for space.’