kvs wrote:In my view the prime motivation for "normalizing" relations with Iran by the west has been to gain access to its
gas reserves. Remember the Nabucco pipeline project? It went nowhere because there was not enough gas to
fill it from the Central Asian 'stans (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and even Turkmenistan which was over-committed to
China and did not have the production levels).
So now the EU is trying to resurrect Nabucco and I think Iran will be willing since it needs the money. I think Russia
has no reason to fret and it is in its interests for Iran to become a EU supplier. Russia's natural gas supply is not
infinite and having another major supplier to the EU will remove the ceaseless EU-tard paranoia about "energy security".
It is a bad position for Russia to be the sole supplier since any supply disruption is treated almost like an act of war.
While I agree that the EU seeks diversification, the issue with Iran is that over 50% of its gas fields are in the Gulf, right next to the guys who want most Shias dead. Plus there's a big issue with the current Pipeline network the Axis Bushehr, Qom, Tabriz is really overloaded for the near market (Irak) and domestic market.
Iran is currently faced with a region paying gold-bars for relatively low volumes, imagine exchanging that for region that needs huge initial investment, will lower the price per unit and ultimately will try and impose regulations that do not favor the suppliers. For the Rest Nabucco is as good as dead with the Turkish and Greek agreement over TurkStream Iran already has a hub with Turkey, so basically the Iranian side is better served by Turkstream and can reach MORE customers than through Nabucco. Also don't forget that Nabucco is still a way to get rid of Ukraine at worst for Russia, so even then the sour deal will be on Iran, but I don't believe for a moment, the people that fought for the nuclear deal so hard and smart, would settle for such an open trap.