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ArrowSo they won't build any more large shipyards like Zviezda? Russia had plans to significantly expand its shipbuilding industry. Change of plans or another location?
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Russian Civil Shipbuilding Sector
Arrow- Posts : 3440
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lancelot wrote:Don't count on it. Ever since VTB analyzed the St. Petersburg shipyards they want to convert them all into prime real estate.
As for Kotlin Island I think they put a museum where the shipyard was supposed to be in.
Well, the existing large shipyards (at least Baltic, admiralty and severnaya Verf) should continue operating and be modernised. Furthermore at least severnaya Verf needs the expansion work to be finished.
Arrow wrote:So they won't build any more large shipyards like Zviezda? Russia had plans to significantly expand its shipbuilding industry. Change of plans or another location?
Not in that area.
I would first think about upgrading the Mariupol ship repairing yard.
Furthermore a new shipyard for small ships (probably up to 4000 tons displacement) could be built in the former azovstal plant area.
Yes I know that the Azov sea has low depth, but there are delineated navigation routes with guaranteed minimum depth were decent sized ships can travel and reach the main harbours.
As far a large tonnage civil shipyard, they could rebuild the Okean shipyard south the city of Nikolaev.
In soviet times it had one of the largest drydock in Europe and was specialized in large merchant ships including bulk carriers and oil/ore carriers with more than 130,000 tons displacement.
This should be the "Zvezda" of Western Russia.
Location "A" in the image below.
https://servimg.com/view/20174407/3
And in the city of Nikolaev there are two other large shipyards that should be rebuilt (even if they will be probably needed also for military ship production as it was in the past. The black sea shipyard/ Nikolaev South (location B) and the former Nikolaev North shipyard/communara 61 (location C).
Kherson shipyard should be rebuilt (and expanded) as well.
In soviet times it used to build large merchant ships, including dry cargo ships, tankers, ice-breakers, container-ships, drilling vessels, and floating dry docks, up to 40000 tons.
There is no need to add other shipyards near Sankt Petersburg, when there is the entire southwestern coast of Novorussia that should be rebuilt and needs industry and occupation.
When the plan for Kotlin Island shipyard and further explanation came out there was no plan to get back Mariupol, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa, so there were much less options for locating a shipyard.
Now there are better possibilities.
I know that the shipyards in Novorossia are destroyed, but they are in very good locations for shipbuilding and there was (and ther will be) good infrastructure to support them.
And building near Sankt Petersburg will not cost less than rebuilding novo
Furthermore large construction works means a lot of employment, and it is a good way to get motivated population in those areas.
As I said in other posts, if Russia does not get at least Nikolaev and Odessa all this operations in Ukraine would be a defeat, and Russia will have bigger problems than not having a large civilian shipyard.
So, upgrading existing shipyards in north west Russia is important, but building new massive shipyards there does not make any sense in the current situation.
As far as Kotlin Island, there is already a relatively large ship repairing yard in Kronstadt.
Arrow- Posts : 3440
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orget about those shipyards on 404. It's better to build new complexes at home. So if not Kotlin, where are they planning?
Discussing whether they will take over Mykolaiv and Odessa is pointless. Odessa is beyond the reach of Russian troops and possibilities in this decade. In the meantime, there may be a few more peace agreements. It is doubtful that Russia wants those cities. They didn't even want Donbas. The situation has changed, but it won't happen quickly. That's why they should build such large shipyard complexes at Russian territory .
Discussing whether they will take over Mykolaiv and Odessa is pointless. Odessa is beyond the reach of Russian troops and possibilities in this decade. In the meantime, there may be a few more peace agreements. It is doubtful that Russia wants those cities. They didn't even want Donbas. The situation has changed, but it won't happen quickly. That's why they should build such large shipyard complexes at Russian territory .
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Arrow wrote:
Discussing whether they will take over Mykolaiv and Odessa is pointless. Odessa is beyond the reach of Russian troops and possibilities in this decade. In the meantime, there may be a few more peace agreements. It is doubtful that Russia wants those cities. They didn't even want Donbas. The situation has changed, but it won't happen quickly. That's why they should build such large shipyard complexes at Russian territory .
You are commenting from a 9y/o perspective who wants these candies NOW because it is Halloween.
A decade has passed, and an end effect is Russkie having the Crimea, Dobnas, Zaporhozhe, and Cherson.
10+ mln new citizens.
If anyone would have said that from the 2000 perspective, he would have been called a mythomaniac.
With a booming economy, they need to hold the leash because it is too vibrant and needs some serious trimming.
The BRICS summit proved to be a giant milestone, trashing the Western-bred narrative of "isolation".
A "collective west" faces an issue with holding own citizens face down, because more and more people are looking up.
"Don't look up" does not sells anymore.
Yurope is getting bankrupted as we speak.
VW has just closed a 30% of it's Germany based factories, the first time in 87 years. Almost an AGE...
Social benefits has been cut off, the core of the real "European values" when wealthy EU member states enjoyed overall welfare.
Soon, it will turn out that Jetta brand made in China and formed by inexpensive and traditional VW group autos will let them stay alive because of exports to Russia ...
In the Polish Sejm building, for the first time ever, a Bucha myth was raised and addressed.
At the official press briefing, imagine that.
Russkie are not playing a 9y/o games. They are doing a game of thrones, and winning it massively.
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lancelot- Posts : 3138
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What VTB wanted was to build new shipyards. At least one, possibly two. In either Northern Russia around Murmansk or similar, or the alternative was to build it near St. Petersburg.Arrow wrote:orget about those shipyards on 404. It's better to build new complexes at home. So if not Kotlin, where are they planning?
Discussing whether they will take over Mykolaiv and Odessa is pointless. Odessa is beyond the reach of Russian troops and possibilities in this decade. In the meantime, there may be a few more peace agreements. It is doubtful that Russia wants those cities. They didn't even want Donbas. The situation has changed, but it won't happen quickly. That's why they should build such large shipyard complexes at Russian territory .
Anyway the government seems to have kind of dismissed their idea since I am now hearing about plans to modernize the Severnaya Verf shipyard which is one of those VTB wanted to shut down.
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That´s what the Germans said about the Russians and Berlin at the beginning of 1944.Odessa is beyond the reach of Russian troops and possibilities in this decade.
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That´s what the Germans said about the Russians and Berlin at the beginning of 1944. wrote:
Compare the progress of the Red Army in 1944 and the progress of the Russian army in 2024. Not to mention the fact that the Red Army then numbered about 8 million people. Comparison with World War II is pointless. Completely different wars, forces and means.
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So they won't build any more large shipyards like Zviezda? Russia had plans to significantly expand its shipbuilding industry. Change of plans or another location?
The St Petersberg area is not ideal for producing large military ships, if they were going to make another large shipyard like Zvezda, then it would be somewhere else like the far north or somewhere else in the far east where there is plenty of land that is not worth anything to anyone else.
Most of the northern shipyards are likely to be expanded, especially those along the northern sea route to accept large ships for repairs enroute where needed.
The capacity to handle such large ships would mean they will need to be large shipyards, and when they are not repairing ships they can perform upgrades and overhauls and other maintenance so that other shipyards can focus on production rather than maintenance and support.
As I said in other posts, if Russia does not get at least Nikolaev and Odessa all this operations in Ukraine would be a defeat, and Russia will have bigger problems than not having a large civilian shipyard.
Say it as often as you please, but that does not make it true.
I could say if HATO doesn't save Kiev then it should dissolve... but then I could have said if HATO does not defeat the Taliban or ISIS it should dissolve.
I don't see Russia being generous to Kiev in terms of agreements moving forward.
orget about those shipyards on 404. It's better to build new complexes at home. So if not Kotlin, where are they planning?
Agree about 404 shipyards, they were talking about expanding northern shipyards to allow the production and also the support of larger ships...
Compare the progress of the Red Army in 1944 and the progress of the Russian army in 2024. Not to mention the fact that the Red Army then numbered about 8 million people. Comparison with World War II is pointless. Completely different wars, forces and means.
Yet you continue to complain that they are not working fast enough.
This conflict is bleeding Russia, but it is also bleeding Kiev and the West and to stop it now will allow the west to cut kiev off completely and focus on other things and stop wasting money and energy on a lost cause.
Russia is losing men, but the cost of cutting this short would most likely be that the job is not done properly and in 10-15 years time you have to do it again, but this time with the nazis much better prepared... why do you think that is better?
The west fights with the patience of a 9 year old and their decisions are as rash and as self defeating.
Russia isn't destroying the west... the west is destroying itself trying to hurt Russia and China and Iran and North Korea and Cuba and Yemen and Venezuela and lots of other countries on its shit list...
Russia and BRICS have changed direction and are no longer sailing towards the west while the west pushes them away. The rest of the world are looking at the direction both are taking and those who can are looking to follow BRICS... 30 years ago the idea that the rest of the world might follow Russia and China and India rather than the US and EU would be preposterous.... laughable.... now days... it is a reality...
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Arrow- Posts : 3440
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With a booming economy, they need to hold the leash because it is too vibrant and needs some serious trimming wrote:
They say they have to slow down growth because of the lack of workers, etc? They had a similar economic boom at the beginning of the 21st century, but then it was more based on high oil prices, now it's investments, domestic consumption, and growth in industrial production. It's funny that there are people who still claim that Russia is suffering from the Dutch disease
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A lack of workers will slow down growth, but also encourage technology and solutions that are less labour intensive, or they might offshore the more labour intensive jobs like making cargo ships could be done in India paid for in their excess rupees.
Or maybe import 50,000 North Korean Soldiers and give them a bit of training in a range of useful fields and have them work in factories to take up the slack and then after 5 or ten years of service send them home with huge paychecks and new skills and have them go home and train another 50K to come and replace them.
That would be more useful than trying to use them on a battlefield where they don't speak the language of their allies or their enemies... how much could they learn with a communications barrier like that?
How long before western media starts telling us that a surprise attack by Kievs forces just killed 200 North Koreans... but they wont be normal NK troops... they will be North Korean Special Forces super soldiers along with 25 Wagner trainers that will be taken out by Kievs super soldiers who can't even hold a front line.
Or maybe import 50,000 North Korean Soldiers and give them a bit of training in a range of useful fields and have them work in factories to take up the slack and then after 5 or ten years of service send them home with huge paychecks and new skills and have them go home and train another 50K to come and replace them.
That would be more useful than trying to use them on a battlefield where they don't speak the language of their allies or their enemies... how much could they learn with a communications barrier like that?
How long before western media starts telling us that a surprise attack by Kievs forces just killed 200 North Koreans... but they wont be normal NK troops... they will be North Korean Special Forces super soldiers along with 25 Wagner trainers that will be taken out by Kievs super soldiers who can't even hold a front line.
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There is already a video on Twitter XY showing a "NK soldier" in a Banderite hospital after being wounded and captured. 
He repeats all the western lies about Russian attacks without preparations, meat waves and so on.
Propably the same dude they showed some days ago, being captured alive and well (so he plays more than one role in this show,
great for his Oscar run). The guy neither talked Korean nor Russian, but "Ukrainian".
He repeats all the western lies about Russian attacks without preparations, meat waves and so on.
Propably the same dude they showed some days ago, being captured alive and well (so he plays more than one role in this show,
great for his Oscar run). The guy neither talked Korean nor Russian, but "Ukrainian".
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Hole wrote:There is already a video on Twitter XY showing a "NK soldier" in a Banderite hospital after being wounded and captured.
He repeats all the western lies about Russian attacks without preparations, meat waves and so on.
Propably the same dude they showed some days ago, being captured alive and well (so he plays more than one role in this show,
great for his Oscar run). The guy neither talked Korean nor Russian, but "Ukrainian".
This.
Ukrainians are bad at propaganda but people eat it up, even morons on this forums.
There aren't NK soldiers in this war. People just see Asian Russians or Ukrainians and say "OMG, North Koreans!"
Racist fuckers.
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Arrow- Posts : 3440
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Anyway the government seems to have kind of dismissed their idea since I am now hearing about plans to modernize the Severnaya Verf shipyard which is one of those VTB wanted to shut down. wrote:
So expansion of Severnaya Verf instead of a completely new shipyard cluster? Does Severnaya have the potential to expand it that much?
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There were plans to build a new boathouse for the Project 22350M destroyers. But it seems to have gone nowhere. However they are equipping the shipyards with more modern tools, and they seem to be refurbishing them to increase production.Arrow wrote:So expansion of Severnaya Verf instead of a completely new shipyard cluster? Does Severnaya have the potential to expand it that much?
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There were plans to build a new boathouse for the Project 22350M destroyers. But it seems to have gone nowhere wrote:
We won't see the 22350M project anytime soon. It's not even known when they'll lay the keel?
. However they are equipping the shipyards with more modern tools, and they seem to be refurbishing them to increase production. wrote:
Only that the new shipbuilding cluster was supposed to be mainly focused on civilian production. That would be a different quality than the inept Severnaya Verf.
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A bit offtopic since 22350M is (or better will be) a military vessel, but in soviet time project 1155 Udaloy class was built at Severnaya Verf in Sankt Petersburg (and at Yantar, in Kaliningrad).
Since project 1155 has more or less the same size (comparable length and displacement) of the planned 22350M, they should be able to build it there.
But yeah more modern equipment would for sure help.
Otherwise both admiralty shipyard and Baltic shipyard, still in Sankt Petersburg are able to build destroyers, but they are already loaded with civilian orders plus large nuclear icebreakers (Baltic) and diesel electric submarines (admiralty shipyard). Maybe the diesel electric subs production could be moved to krasnoe sormovo in Nizhny Novgorod (it did already produce kilo class in the past) in order to free capacity for larger ship production in Sankt Petersburg.
In Leningrad region there is also Vyborg shipyard, but that is also quite busy with many orders (mainly for ice class ships).
Question, the "apparently now frozen" plan for Kotlin Island shipyards was for the civilian ships production or military ships?
Because I heard it already in the past also associated with an eventual admiralty shipyard expansion for the production of mistral helicopter carriers/assault ships.
Of course the latter is not anymore needed because better russian ships are being built now in Crimea in the Kerch shipyard.
Since project 1155 has more or less the same size (comparable length and displacement) of the planned 22350M, they should be able to build it there.
But yeah more modern equipment would for sure help.
Otherwise both admiralty shipyard and Baltic shipyard, still in Sankt Petersburg are able to build destroyers, but they are already loaded with civilian orders plus large nuclear icebreakers (Baltic) and diesel electric submarines (admiralty shipyard). Maybe the diesel electric subs production could be moved to krasnoe sormovo in Nizhny Novgorod (it did already produce kilo class in the past) in order to free capacity for larger ship production in Sankt Petersburg.
In Leningrad region there is also Vyborg shipyard, but that is also quite busy with many orders (mainly for ice class ships).
Question, the "apparently now frozen" plan for Kotlin Island shipyards was for the civilian ships production or military ships?
Because I heard it already in the past also associated with an eventual admiralty shipyard expansion for the production of mistral helicopter carriers/assault ships.
Of course the latter is not anymore needed because better russian ships are being built now in Crimea in the Kerch shipyard.
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Both. From what I remember the strategy was to have a large dry dock in Kotlin Island. Blocks of the ships would be built at existing shipyards, then brought by barge to Kotlin Island and assembled there.Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Question, the "apparently now frozen" plan for Kotlin Island shipyards was for the civilian ships production or military ships?
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if they were going to make another large shipyard like Zvezda, then it would be somewhere else like the far north or somewhere else in the far east where there is plenty of land that is not worth anything to anyone else.
Yes, Shipyards that will build large warships should definitely be located North or in the Far East where there is immediate access to the open sea, the Baltic and Black sea have choke points where there is a potential to block passage for Russian ships.
If Russia can increase the size of the canal that connects the Baltic Sea to the White sea to accommodate ships the size of Steregushchiy corvettes then I think this is a big plus for shipyards in St. Petersburg.
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There is no news that they are going to build a new shipyard complex in the North. There was only information about Petersburg, but it looks like nothing will come of it.
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Arrow wrote:
Compare the progress of the Red Army in 1944 and the progress of the Russian army in 2024. Not to mention the fact that the Red Army then numbered about 8 million people. Comparison with World War II is pointless. Completely different wars, forces and means.
Soviets has lost 600k soldiers killed only on the pre-war Polish territory.
It had close to 200 mln citizens in 1941, with a family model of 2+4.
And if we will stick to the Glantz provided data, its military efforts were consuming almost half of the whole economy in 1942.
Today, no sane Russian authorities would accept that level of commitment and losses.
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So expansion of Severnaya Verf instead of a completely new shipyard cluster? Does Severnaya have the potential to expand it that much?
Expansion and upgrades of all their shipyards as well as new shipyards is always the best solution moving forward... plus some of the backlog of civilian shipping like container ships and other civi types could be outsourced to India (using excess Rupees) and China and Turkey.
Not just making civilian ships but also floating docks to further expand their capacity to lay down new ships and move around ship hulls to other sites for further work or specialist work.
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Yes, Shipyards that will build large warships should definitely be located North or in the Far East where there is immediate access to the open sea, the Baltic and Black sea have choke points where there is a potential to block passage for Russian ships.
If Russia can increase the size of the canal that connects the Baltic Sea to the White sea to accommodate ships the size of Steregushchiy corvettes then I think this is a big plus for shipyards in St. Petersburg.
If I am not mistaken current minimal depth is about 3.5 m.
Original plan was something like 5.4 m (and that would have allowed also the passage of most seagoing vessels) but it was too expensive and lenghty to do that when it was originally built 90 years ago.
Maybe now it would be a good time to expand it, but I do not believe it will be faster or less expensive than building a new shipyard.
Anyway. The previous channel was built mainly by forced labours from prisons. There could be a good use for the people who wanted to kil Russians.
if they were going to make another large shipyard like Zvezda, then it would be somewhere else like the far north or somewhere else in the far east where there is plenty of land that is not worth anything to anyone else
I see it differently.
A very large shipyard needs also a lot of infrastructure, need to employ a lot of people and ideally be near other industries from its supply chain.
Making it in the middle or nowhere means also that all of those things are not present.
Furthermore living conditions in the north are not the same as in Crimea or Novorossia.
I agree that large ship repairing yards to maintain the fleet (both commercial and military) operating in the north is absolutely needed there, but it is not absolutely needed that all ships are also built there.
As I was saying before, if Russia wants to keep the new regions in the southwest it needs to have there employments and work.
Large Ice class ships could be built also in Kherson after they rebuild the shipyard there after the end of the SMO. It is currently occupied by 404 but for the Russian constitution it is as Russian as Archangelsk or Murmansk.
Hopefully soon it will be the same for the other two regions west of Kherson.
About the choke points... It has not been a problem for the whole time soviet union built ships in black sea and moved them afterwards.
I know that now there are some restrictions, but it is only until the war in the Ukraine continues.
Ships need to be able to be repaired and serviced near their operating base. There is however no requirement that they are also built there.
Furthermore if in addition to the baltic-white sea channel they were also able to enlarge the other internal waterways (i.e. Baltic Volga waterways, Moscow - Volga Channel, Volga-don waterways) and replace all low bridges and construction crossing those internal waterways, then larger ships could be also moved out of the Black sea in case of blockage of Instanbul or of the Mediterranean sea.
Expanding this, however will be very lengthy and incredibly expensive.
In addition, if this were to be combined with the planned Iranian waterways from the Caspian sea to the Persian or to the Iranian gulf ...
Both projects (Iranian waterways and expansion of russian internal waterways and building of new bridges, locks ,etc) will be extremely expensive, but the return will be also incredible.
And could also give many more options for the Russian shipyards in Mariupol, Caspian sea or along the Volga.
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Road and Rail links could be the start of the North - South corridors . Joint Russian / Iranian investment , including the private sector can bring the costs down . If enough goods pass through these initial routes , and the profits justify expansion of these routes into canals , then it could be done at a later date . I think almost everything that can be taken by Canal or Ship , can be taken by Road and Rail . Very large cargo like heavy machines , can be taken by parts .
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Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
If I am not mistaken current minimal depth is about 3.5 m.
4m in theory.
4.2m if we take a classification of Volgamax.
Some of arteries are shallower, 2.5m in the worst case scenario.
But that is theory.
Keep in mind one thing. Danube is the Europe biggest arthery, the Rhine being second.
Danube is sailable all way long with draught of 2.5m.
Rhine is 3.0m.
European rivers faces regular drying. Back in 2022, Danube was as dry that the barges were afloat ... Been there, saw that.
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Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
In addition, if this were to be combined with the planned Iranian waterways from the Caspian sea to the Persian or to the Iranian gulf ...
Both projects (Iranian waterways and expansion of russian internal waterways and building of new bridges, locks ,etc) will be extremely expensive, but the return will be also incredible.
And could also give many more options for the Russian shipyards in Mariupol, Caspian sea or along the Volga.
There won't be such thing as "Iranian waterways". Ships will go to the Iranian multimodal ports on Caspian lake, from there cargo will be transported via train to Indian Ocean ports.
There's no technical or economic sense to build waterways due to huge verticality of the relief and lack of water in the interior. Just south of the Caspian coast you have Alborz mountains, which are insurmountable obstacle. Even building railway capable of high throughput will be expensive.