Cold War II_(US-West vs Russia/China tensions)

We don't abandon our own: the historic operation to liberate Russians has been completed, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 08.01.2024.

The present moment is filled with the jubilation of relatives and friends of Russians who have returned to their homeland from Western prisons, and with solemn statements from official and unofficial persons. And only a trained ear can detect the barely audible ringing: usually serious, but now relaxed people in gray and black suits, whose names we may never know, are clinking glasses (with narzan and kefir, of course).

Let us remind those who were absorbed in the Olympics in Paris that a few hours ago, at the Turkish airport of Esenboga, the final act of a long-term operation of our special services and diplomatic structures took place, as a result of which eight of our compatriots (plus two minors), who were sentenced to long terms on various charges, returned from Western prisons to Russia.

Among them is Vadim Krasikov, sentenced to life imprisonment in Germany for the liquidation of a Georgian-Chechen militant who, during the second Chechen war, laid out captured Russian soldiers on the road and then drove his car over their heads. Western media, naturally, called him a "dissident" and a fighter against something or other, but the dog met a dog's death, even if the owners put a nice collar on it.

It is believed that it was precisely the desired release of Krasikov that Russian President Vladimir Putin hinted at in his sensational interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson : "There sits in one country, a country that is an ally of the United States, a man who, for patriotic reasons, liquidated a bandit in one of the European capitals."

Also among those released are the Dultsevs, who were sentenced in Slovenia in 2022 on charges of espionage.

Other Russians were convicted at different times, on different charges, and in different countries, but the leadership of our country never forgot about their fate for a minute, and Russian special services and diplomats tirelessly carried out their work, invisible to the all-knowing public.

Russia provided for the exchange both citizens of Western countries convicted in Russia and originally Russians who decided that the best plan for life was to make trouble for their country in favor of our enemies under the guise of journalists, human rights activists and opposition politicians. It is quite typical that their release was most welcomed by professional Russophobes like former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, who called the most odious individuals his friends and "fighters for freedom and democracy." It is no wonder that a meme with the equation "Russian liberal = American spy" immediately spread across Russian social networks.

The most media personalities in the West in the exchange were the quasi-journalist of the American publication The Wall Street Journal Evan Gershkovich and former American military man Paul Whelan , who received decent sentences for espionage. An interesting point: despite the fact that after Gershkovich's sentence was passed, there was a simply insane howl in the West about his innocence, and in general, he was waiting for a regular armored personnel carrier at Uralvagonzavod , under the weight of evidence, his own lawyers did not challenge the sentence or make any statements.

Overall, this operation was the largest prisoner exchange between the West and Russia since the Cold War, involving 26 people. Particularly difficult was the fact that our compatriots were in prisons in different countries with different legislation and, naturally, different levels of diplomatic relations and "directness" of channels between our and foreign intelligence services. In addition to the fierce diplomatic negotiations and real bargaining for each person, it was necessary to resolve an incredible number of legal and logistical issues, including the mandatory petition for pardon to the President of Russia from "not ours" subject to exchange. Another level of complexity was added by the simultaneous exchange "for ours" of German citizen Krieger, sentenced to death for terrorism in Belarus, but pardoned by Alexander Lukashenko.

As Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin said: "This should be resolved quietly, calmly, at a professional level. There are contacts, let them work." And this was done, and brilliantly.

However, as expected, many people came together in the fight for the laurels of the main peacekeepers and liberators. The Turkish National Intelligence Directorate , with whose participation the last stage of the exchange was organized, immediately trumpeted that this entire operation was practically their idea. All sorts of American senators, congressmen, speakers, press secretaries and representatives of the US presidential administration are literally choking with pride, tirelessly reminding that they "have not stopped their efforts to bring them (Hershkovich and Whelan) home."

But the harsh truth of life is that both the terms and the time of the exchange were set by Russia. The same Americans repeatedly tried to pressure us into an unequal exchange, but each time our official (and not so official) persons were sent to hell so that they would return with an "improved offer". And only when the offer was ultimately radically improved and suited our side, everything came together.

According to various omniscient experts, Russia was waiting for the election of Donald Trump as president for the exchange , because relations with the current American administration are, to put it mildly, not very good. But the decisions within the framework of this operation were made not on the basis of political conjuncture, emotions or preferences, but on the basis of a sober calculation: how to get out as many of our own as possible, giving up toxic ballast in exchange.

And the timing was perfect. On July 19, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan let it slip : "I think this (the exchange) is one of the most important things (for the US presidential administration) between now and the end of the year, especially the end of this month." The fact is that the current Democratic administration is in dire time pressure, and the Democratic Party is in even more dire disarray amid the impending disaster with potential presidential candidate Kamala Harris , and it is incredibly important for them to present the population with at least one significant victory, well, at least a small victory, in order to reverse the negative mood. That is why our guys showed iron persistence and, in fact, squeezed the Americans dry, politely wiping their feet on their absurd demands like a "2 for 1" exchange.

Perhaps Trump's arrogance played a small role here, when he once boastfully declared: "Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, will do this (give up Gershkovich and Whelan) for me - and for no one else, but we will not pay (that is, do something in return) anything!"

Putin, who is called a "grandmaster" even in the West, decided to play the game his own way.

And the best leitmotif of this party, probably, can be considered the words of the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev : "Of course, we would like the traitors of Russia to rot in prison or die in jail, as has often happened. But it is more useful to get out our own, who worked for the country, for the Fatherland, for all of us."
Because we don’t abandon our own.

Welcome back - your homeland has not forgotten you.

https://ria.ru/20240801/operatsiya-1963549019.html

Russia Fully Satisfied With Prisoner Swap - Source, 08.02.2024.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Russia is fully satisfied with the prisoner exchange, a credible source in one of the competent Russian agencies told Sputnik on Thursday.

Earlier in the day, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) said that eight Russians detained and held in custody in a number of NATO countries had returned to Russia.

"The Russian side is completely satisfied with the exchange," the source said.

All parties followed the agreements during the exchange process, the source added.

"During the preparation and implementation of this technically complex exchange process, all the numerous parties involved fully complied with the agreements reached," the source said.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240801/russia-fully-satisfied-with-prisoner-swap---source-1119596725.html

In exchange for the rabble, Russia got its heroes back, by Igor Karaulov, poet, publicist, for VZGLYAD. 08.02.2024.

The Great Exchange shows that the concepts of "ours" and "foreigners" are not determined by a passport. We give people who used a Russian passport to fight Russia to the West with a light heart. And we will give more if it is a question of saving those who are truly ours.

The international prisoner exchange that took place on the first day of August is striking, first of all, for its scale. There was nothing like this in modern Russian history, nor in Soviet times. Moreover, the true contours of this “deal” became clear to a wide audience literally a few days before it was completed.

Previously, we heard from the Americans mainly about their desire to get two of their citizens, Paul Whelan and Evan Gershkovich, out of Russian prison. Accordingly, it was implied that this was a simple bilateral agreement under which one or both of these hapless spies would be released in exchange for a comparable number of our people.

Instead, a complex scheme involving the exchange of 24 people was implemented, involving eight countries – Russia, Belarus, the USA, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, Norway, plus Turkey as an intermediary. It could be said that an entire international conference was held for the sake of this exchange. And this in itself gave hope to many. It turns out that in the conditions of the clinical death of official, public diplomacy, secret channels of communication between Russia and NATO countries exist – and are capable of effectively carrying out the most difficult work.

And so, some continue, it will be possible to negotiate other topics through these channels – for example, on settling the Ukrainian conflict. Some even believe that this next stage has already been planned and that the current exchange is just preparation for something more important, but for now it is better not to count on it, especially since the Americans are making it clear: this is a one-time agreement that does not mean any detente or reset.

It must be said that in addition to the freed spies, Russia gave the current US authorities a valuable non-material gift, giving the Democrats the opportunity to turn the meeting of citizens returning to their homeland into a noisy election event for Kamala Harris. It would seem that it was possible to drag out the time until the presidential elections, but here it is worth recalling Vladimir Putin’s old words about his preference for Biden over Trump. With the current exchange, among other things, the Kremlin shows that it is ready to continue working with the Democratic administration - if, of course, it is ready for this. Trump, on the other hand, got a slap on the nose: he constantly advertised his superpower of “getting along with the Russians,” but it turned out that the Democrats are quite capable of making deals with the Russians.

Trump, by the way, was quick to call the deal disadvantageous for America, although NATO (the US and Germany) received 16 people, and Russia – only eight. Judging by these figures, the benefit for Russia is even less obvious. And what is the reality?

Of the four people who were solemnly welcomed in the US, only Whelan and Gershkovich can be called “real” Americans, so the bottom line of the exchange, as originally intended, is that they are the ones. As for Alsu Kurmasheva, she is a Tatar “journalist” with dual Russian-American citizenship. And Vladimir Kara-Murza is a British citizen, whose only connection to the US is his green card. However, he too is mentioned in the statement issued on behalf of Joe Biden as a person who is “finally returning home.” Well, at least we know where the “Russian opposition politician” has a home. This recognition also became a valuable moral gift to the Russian authorities.

An even more motley group of those released went to Germany. In addition to several citizens of that country, including the terrorist Krieger, who was pardoned in Belarus, we also see a number of Russian "oppositionists" in this company. Among them, for example, is Sasha Skochilenko, who hung anti-war price tags in a store and was convicted of fakes about the army. But excuse me, Skochilenko is one of those who are called city lunatics. One can only be amazed at the professionalism of our negotiators, who were able to palm off Skochilenko on the Germans as part of this exchange. Persons of this kind have never appeared in such exchanges - just imagine Skochilenko in the setting of the Soviet film about Soviet intelligence "Dead Season". Even the "hooligan" Bukovsky, who was exchanged for Corvalan under Soviet rule, is a titan of the Renaissance compared to this empty shell, posing as an artist.

Other "oppositionists" given away by Moscow are also close to the concept of a city madman. Chanysheva, Fadeeva, Ostanin, Pivovarov - all of these are random people who were drawn into politics by the desire to earn some money. No one has ever considered these people to be politicians. It is unclear why the German secret service BND needs them, but if this dubious currency is accepted at their exchange office, then thank God.

Ilya Yashin* can be considered a politician in this company – after all, he made it to the municipal deputy. But his exchange also became a moral victory for Russia. After all, back in June of this year, Yashin publicly refused the exchange, stating that for him “it is important to share the fate of my country and my people.” And now he’s running for German grub. Why does the West need him now if he’s nullified himself as a politician?

However, that is their business. Our business is to rejoice for our people who have met their Motherland again. Because all eight people whom President Putin personally met at the plane's steps served their country faithfully and will rightfully receive state awards. And this solemn and touching meeting itself is not a political show, but a manifestation of human and professional solidarity.

Over time, we will learn more about these people, but today we can single out Vadim Krasikov, the hero who executed the terrorist Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in Germany. To exchange such a person for a bunch of useless trash is a good deal. Let other criminals and traitors who expect to live happily ever after in Europe know: there will be those who will bring them to justice, too – and Russia will not abandon these people.

The large exchange shows that the concepts of "ours" and "strangers" are not determined by a passport. We give people who used Russian passports to the West to fight Russia with a light heart. And we will give more if we are talking about saving those who are truly ours. There are still many such people in foreign prisons, so the scheme that has been worked out now may come in handy more than once.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/8/2/1280357.html

Paragon western judicial systems, punishing heroes and victims and defending criminals and perverts. Germany is really standing out for its concern
for a certain species of scum. Women in Germany dare not utter "slurs" against their special minority rapists during the act of rape. If they dare
to transgress in this manner, they will get hard time for "hate crime" while their rapist(s) will get a slap on the wrist.

The beginning is the part I want to comment on so ignore the length of the video.

The "common tent" approach is manifestly the only proper approach to international relations. Countries are sovereign and no collection of countries has special rights to dictate
anything to them based on "values" and "rules". It is obvious that pushing "values" and "rules" results in war and mass death. It shows no other pattern and is engaged by bloody
hypocrites who pull different rules and values based on their geopolitical ambitions.

If people in a country are not happy with their system, it is their task to change it. It is not the right of foreign imperialists to regime change because of "values". The case
of prevention of genocide is distinct. NATzO claims that it prevented genocide in Bosnia i Herzegovina and in Kosovo i Metohija. It did no such thing. Meanwhile it openly
promoted its regime-change proxies in Croatia and Ukraine to engage ethnic cleansing of target minorities. For example the 450,000 Serbs ethnically cleansed from Krajina,
East and West Slavonia. The same plan was in place for the Donbass and Russia's "invasion" was just and proper to prevent this war crime.

The video starts with the point about the NATzO west having a different vision of how to come out of the Cold War than the USSR/Russia. The NATzO west is an imperial collective
and its vision is driven by imperial ambitions. It launched wars in Europe to assert its primacy, couching them in BS about "spreading values and enforcing rules". This includes
the break-up wars in Yugoslavia and break-up wars in the USSR. That's right, Georgia, Moldova, Chechnya and Ukraine are all NATzO projects. NATzO used local strife conditions
to pump factions that would further its imperialism. Chechnya was infiltrated by Wahabbi maggots who had nothing in common with the local Sufi Islam tradition. They
were nominally sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the little Gulf statelets such as a Qatar all of which were US protectorates and proxies. The fact that Kadyrov is in charge of
Chechnya now says it all. Kadyrov is part of the original separatist movement that was fighting Russian forces in 1996, before it was hijacked by the Wahabbis.

Georgia's attempt at a final solution of its Ossetian problem was a full-on NATzO project. It is always the same shtick with some regime-change stooge given the green light.
Suckassvili, Elensky or any other clown. Izetbegovic was also greenlighted by the US in 1992 to destroy the Lisbon Accord which would have prevented war in Bosnia i Herzegovina.
To use NATzO propaganda terminology, NATzO is a collection of rogue states that refuses to play by any rational set of rules. It only wants to play by its own imperialist rules
and gives itself the right to turn any country into a colony (resources, etc) while bleating about democracy and human rights. The sort of "human rights" that NATzO promotes
are the ones in which humans are murdered by cluster bombs dropped by NATzO jets. If NATzO jets are not involved, then NATzO paid snipers engage in shooting protesters such
as on the Maidan in Ukraine and in Venezuela. Clearly for NATzO, its "values" justify murder in wars and psyops.

The response from the global south in the wake of the Ukraine war tells us that the world is sick and tired of NATzO's bloody imperialist hypocrisy. Nobody with a functional
brain and a clue, who is not a NATzO whore, is buying the intellectually insulting claims about export of democracy and love for human rights. I hope BRICS can lead the way
to liberate the planet from the influence of the NATzO-west parasites. Fair global trade and a common tent approach (multipolar world order) is what will bring democracy
and human rights to humanity. The vast majority of countries in the global south have sufficiently free information flow for people to see what is going on in other countries.
Even the so-called totalitarian ones do not have total information bubbles. Natural pressure from the population will push development of countries towards better conditions
(more freedom and high standards of living). This process cannot be rushed and the NATzO-west never pushed this process in reality but used demand for better conditions
to push regime change and economic exploitation.

Vedomosti: ASEAN countries not ready for NATO-style security pact, experts say

Creating a collective security organization in Southeast Asia akin to NATO is not feasible at this time, according to Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro, who spoke at an ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) security forum in Manila. He pointed to the divergent interests of regional powers and existing alliances as the main obstacles to establishing an organization similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

While the creation of a full NATO-like military alliance in Asia is unlikely, the strengthening of bloc solidarity among US allies in the region has gained significant momentum in recent years, noted Yekaterina Koldunova, director of the ASEAN Center at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). "The increased cooperation between NATO and Japan, NATO and South Korea—this cannot but concern Russia. The US has consistently promoted the idea of expanding ties with its partners in Asia, and although a fully unified military alliance is improbable, there has been some success in this direction," the expert explained.

Koldunova emphasized that a NATO-type military alliance within ASEAN remains impossible. "The association has never aimed for such a goal. Moreover, all of its members are aligned with different global partners, which complicates the development of a unified stance," she added.

ASEAN itself lacks a unified position on strategic issues, agrees Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics. "Countries in the region are doing everything they can to avoid being forced to choose between China and the West," he said. "For many of them, China is a crucial trade partner, and severing ties with it is simply unthinkable. Given the diverse aspirations of Southeast Asian countries, it is premature to discuss the possibility of a NATO-style military alliance among them," Kashin concluded.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2024/11/06/1073156-strani-asean-ne-gotovi-uchastvovat-v-organizatsii-po-tipu-nato

A HATO in south-east Asia is absurd. The "enemy" is China and any potential members of this NATzO variant are all very weak. So it is just a gaggle of
US sock puppets. I suppose a central purpose of HATO is to keep the US vassals under control. The same would apply in south-east Asia, but it is still
an absurdity.

Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
Wow, looks like Xi was extremely straightforward during his meeting with Biden, probably the most he's ever officially been in a meeting with a US president.

According to the Chinese readout (https://guancha.cn/internation/2024_11_17_755645.shtml
) here's what he told Biden were the 7 "lessons of the past 4 years that need to be remembered":

1) "There must be correct strategic understanding. The 'Thucydides Trap' is not historical destiny, a 'new Cold War' cannot and should not be fought, containment of China is unwise, undesirable, and will not succeed."

2) "Words must be trustworthy and actions must be fruitful. A person cannot stand without credibility. China always follows through on its words, but if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another, it is very detrimental to America's image and damages mutual trust."

3) "Treat each other as equals. In exchanges between two major countries like China and the United States, neither side can reshape the other according to their own wishes, nor can they suppress the other based on so-called 'position of strength,' let alone deprive the other of legitimate development rights to maintain their own leading position."

4) "Red lines and bottom lines cannot be challenged. As two major countries, China and the United States inevitably have some contradictions and differences, but they cannot harm each other's core interests, let alone engage in conflict and confrontation. The One China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués are the political foundation of bilateral relations and must be strictly observed. Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, development path, and development rights are China's four red lines, which cannot be challenged. [Note: Bold text in the original] These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations."

5) "There should be more dialogue and cooperation. Under current circumstances, the common interests between China and the United States have not decreased but increased. Whether in areas of economy and trade, agriculture, drug control, law enforcement, public health, or in facing global challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence, as well as international hotspot issues, China-US cooperation is needed. Both sides should extend the list of cooperation, make the cooperation cake bigger, and achieve win-win cooperation."

6) "Respond to people's expectations. The development of China-US relations should always focus on the wellbeing of both peoples and gather the strength of both peoples. Both sides should build bridges for personnel exchanges and cultural communication, and also remove interference and obstacles, not artificially create a 'chilling effect.'"

7) "Demonstrate great power responsibility. China and the United States should always consider the future and destiny of humanity, take responsibility for world peace, provide public goods for the world, and play a positive role in world unity, including engaging in positive interaction, avoiding mutual consumption, and not coercing other countries to take sides."

Funnily, all this is summarized in the official US readout (https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-3/) with this short sentence: "The two leaders reviewed the bilateral relationship over the past four years". Talk about an understatement

The language compared to the readout of the last Xi-Biden meeting in San Francisco one year ago is noticeably more forthright, especially on the U.S.'s lack of trustworthiness ("if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another..."). Looks like he's getting very frustrated with U.S. duplicity...

The 4 red lines he enumerates are also new (not new individually as they've each been mentioned before, but packaging them together as "four red lines" and explicitly labeling them as such in a president-level diplomatic readout is new):
1) Taiwan issue
2) Democracy and human rights
3) Development path/system
4) Development rights

The Taiwan issue is obviously not new as a red line but it's interesting that in the readout Xi explicitly calls on the U.S. to "recognize the 'Taiwan independence' nature of Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities if the U.S. side wants to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait", and to "clearly oppose 'Taiwan independence'".

The US has always opposed Taiwan independence in words (if you read the US State Department's page on "U.S. Relations With Taiwan", it's written "we do not support Taiwan independence": https://state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/) but, as per Xi's point on "the U.S. side always saying one thing and doing another", the U.S. has been very supporting of Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities even though they're explicitly a pro-independence party...

With the red lines on "Democracy and human rights" and "Development path/system", it looks like China is effectively telling the U.S. it will not humor them anymore in discussions about its internal system and so-called "human rights", and that it will consider any U.S. initiative aimed at interfering with China's internal affairs or otherwise shape China as hostile actions on the same level as Taiwan. This is also clear with Xi telling Biden that "neither side can reshape the other according to their own wishes".

On development rights Xi states that "the Chinese people's right to development cannot be deprived or ignored" and criticizes how "while all countries have national security needs, the concept shouldn't be overgeneralized or used as an excuse for malicious restrictions and suppression". He also said that "great power competition should not be the theme of the era; unity and cooperation are needed to overcome difficulties together. 'Decoupling and breaking chains" is not the solution; mutually beneficial cooperation is the path to common development. 'Small yards with high fences' is not befitting of great powers."

In other words, he's telling Biden that he believes the U.S. is attempting to curtail China's development in the guise of national security, but that this is "an excuse for malicious restrictions and suppression" and a red line as China has a fundamental right to develop as any other country.

This is all, of course, also signaling to the upcoming Trump administration. The fact these are "red lines" means they're non-negotiable regardless of who leads the US: he's telling Trump too that attempts to "reshape" China or restrict its development will be viewed as hostile actions. And the emphasis on US "saying one thing and doing another" also puts the future administration on notice that China will judge the US by its actions rather than its diplomatic statements.

Conclusion: by framing these positions as "lessons learned" from the past four years, Xi is effectively closing the book on one approach to US-China relations - which he's obviously very critical about - and very clearly signaling to Trump a change is badly needed, particularly around the "4 red lines" and matching words with actions. The language is very confident, telling the U.S. they need to "treat each other as equals" and that they have no "position of strength" anymore.

The US readout on this (https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-3/
), as usual for the Biden administration, is very illustrative of exactly what Xi is complaining about: a complete disregard for China's stance on these issues and a refusal to engage with them, or even mention them at all. Not sure that "America first" Trump and the team of China hawks he put together will be much better...
5:27 AM · Nov 17, 2024
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