In overall terms I see well the situation of the Russian armed forces. The cover of the local technology of all the military warfare areas is very high, and the level of the technology is good. Also the exposition of the Russian military warfare to foreign supplies is so low, and the works to replace foreign pieces affected by sanctions is being done fast enough.
While there are not critical problems, always there is something to do to improve the situation. Taking into account that the delivery to the Russian Armed Forces of the first unit of the S-350, Mi-38, Ka-60/62 and Yak-152, is expected before the end of 2017, these would be the reforms that I would expect first at a material level:
0.- Finalisation and confirmation of the total retirement, including of the reserve, of: Kraz-214
Kraz-255
Kraz-260
Zil-130
100mm BS-3
023mm ZU-23(-2)
GT-MU
T-54
AT-T
Be-12
1.- To assure common standards in procurement and decommissions for land forces, common standards for sea forces, common standards for aerospace forces, common standards for land forces deployed by air and sea means, and common standards for military intelligence: Russian Army
Russian Strategic Missile Troops
Russian Military Police
Russian Air Defence Troops
Russian Coastal Troops
Russian Aerospace Forces
Russian Naval Aviation
Russian Army Aviation
Russian Navy
Russian Airborne Troops
Russian Naval Infantry
Russian Navy Special Forces
Main Intelligence Directorate
2.- To define more clearly the limits for the equipment exclusive of the Russian Armed Forces. I would expect a militarization of some warfare that is now managed by non military security forces. It means the transference of low amounts of:
Project 11351 (3 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
Project 1265 (1 unit from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
Project 1330 (5 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
Project T-4 (3 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
Project 1176 (2 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
2S1 (12 units from Border Service of the FSB to R Army)
3.- To finnish the process of replacement of foreign components, and a plan for the scrapping, sale or demilitarization of foreign material of the Russian Armed Forces. It would include foreign designs, but not Russian or Sovietic designs produced out of Russia.
Dry cargo ships purchased for the operation in Syria
Type Dora
Type Dubna
Project REF-675
Project REF-100
Project R-5757
Project UK-3
Project V92
Project V820
L-39
L-410
An-140
Iveco LMV
IC16M Project IC16MII
An-148/158/178
4.- Total retirement from active service of the last heavy towed weapons except the biggest Surface-Air (A-135) and Surface-Surface (SS-18 and SS-19) missiles. In the case of the (M)T-12 I expect a total decommission with a retirement also of the reserve:
2A19/29 (M)T-12
2B16 Nona-K
2A36 Giatsint-B
2A18 D-30
2A65 Msta-B
5.- To exclude since the begin the procurement of the foreign and relatively weakest, less standard (including launched grenades) and less modern weapons (including the last variants) and auxiliary equipment in production: An-140
Iveco LMV
IC16M Project IC16MII
An-148/158/178
2A19/29 (M)T-12
2A65 Msta-B
SPG-9
2B14 Podnos
GM-93/94 (LPO-97)
2S23
SA-13
BTR-80
MT-LB
BPM-97 (4x4)
BMD-4
6.- Upgrade on self propelled Surface-Surface, Surface-Air and Artillery warfare, with the replacement of the tractor elements with unarmoured cabin by (more standardized) tractor elements with armoured cabin, according to the modern safety standards for the rest of the land warfare, and to make full mobile the SS-29, SS-27 and SS-C-1. The retired unarmoured tractor elements can be used as military auxiliary vehicles in non-contested areas (transport, engineering,...), in agreement with the situation of use of every type of vehicle, and affecting to the procurement of land auxiliary vehicles:
SS-29
SS-27
SS-25
SS-26
SS-21
SS-1
SS-C-7
SS-C-6
SS-C-5
SS-C-3
SS-C-1
BM-30
BM-27
SA-21
SA-10/12/20/23
SA-22
SA-8
A-222
BM-21
7.- Very intense procurement in relative terms on: Surface-Air systems (by lack os saturation of the reserve)
Infantry Vehicles (to improve the fleet toward the modern standards)
8.- Finalisation of the development of new weapons and non-combat equipment, and delivery of the first unit, to complete the new generation of equipment developed in the first quarter of the XXI century. Listed the key projects (except components but including ammunition) where the first unit is not in production in 2017. Bolded the projects where the timeline still assures not a first unit by 2025, and something else that I think would be interesting:
New ammunition for the SA-4 tractors (I see not news despite a lack of projects for new surface-air systems/ammunition for the 15-50Km range, approximately the original range of the SA-4)
New ammunition for the 125mm tanks of range over 17.5 Km to allow them to fight also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons of the adversary.
New ammunition for the TOS-1 of range over 17.5 Km to allow them to fight also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons of the adversary.
A-235
SS-30/RS-28
Project 23000 (multirole Aircraft Carrier)
Project 23560 (multirole Cruiser/Destroyer)
Project ????? Lavina or Project ????? Priboi (multirole Amphibious Ship)
SA-??/S-500
SA-??/Morphey
SS-31/RS-26
TOS BM2 with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. (Armata platform)
SS-32/RS-27?
2S?? 125mm Sprut SDM-1 with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons.(BMD-4M platform)
2S42 120mm Lotos (BMD-4M platform)
2S?? 240mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. Successor of the 2S4 at production level. (Armata platform)
2S?? 203mm for long range direct fire. Successor of the 2S7 at production level. (Armata platform)
2S?? 203mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. New. (Armata platform)
2S?? 152mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. New. (Armata platform)
2S?? 152mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. Successor of the 2S34 at production level. (Kurganets platform)
2S?? 152mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. New.(Kurganets platform)
2S?? 125mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. Successor of the BMP-3 100mm at production level. (Kurganets platform)
2S?? 152mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. Successor of the 2S23 at production level. (Bumerang platform)
2S?? 152mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. New. (Bumerang platform)
2S?? 125mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. New. (Bumerang platform)
T-14 152mm with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. (Armata platform)
BMPT Terminator 3 with some weapon that allows to the project to work also outside of the range of the portable/man-portable weapons of the adversary. (Armata platform)
BMO-2 (Armata platform APC)
T-16 (Armata platform engineering vehicles)
MiG-41/PAK-DP
Tu-PAK-DA
Mi-46 (in the An-24/26/30/32 size class with around 10 tons payload).
Il-214 40 or Tu-330 (transport in the Tu-204/214 size class with around 40 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
Ka-102 (in the An-72/74 size class with around 15 tons payload).
PTS 80 or Il-106 (transport in the An-22 size class with around 80 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
Il-214 20 (transport in the An-10/12 size class with around 20 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
PTS 160 (transport in the An-124 size class with around 160 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
Il-214 60 (transport in the Il-76/78 Be-A50 size class with around 60 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
Current key projects where a timeline longer than 2025 for the delivery of the first unit would not be a problem from a military point (bolded the most interesting and innovative projects for the next generation):
Yak-135 as light supersonic trainer (plus FGA to export)
Il-PAK-TA as supersonic transport
Unmanned Long Range Shipborne Maritime Patrol VTOL aircraft/helicopter
Unmanned Combat Helicopter compatible with all the branches of the Russian Armed Forces
Il-90 or Frigate Ecojet (airliner in the Il-62 size class for double configuration: 1 mid passenger capacity + long range, 2 high passenger capacity + mid range).
Tu-304 or Comac C929 (airliner in the Il-86/80/96 size class for high passenger capacity + long range).
MS-21/Yak-242 (airliner in the Tu-204/214 size class for mid passenger capacity + mid range).
It is necessary to analyze if the rest of the new projects of heavy equipment known publicly, maybe only a distraction of efforts and funds.
In overall terms, in the following years, the total decommission (including of the reserve) of the relatively weakest, less standardized and/or less modern material, is likely to come (except in the case of the foreign material included in the point 3) by natural exhaustion after its use by the Russian armed forces, because of external demand or by transference to Russian non-military security forces in the case of the exceeding less modern infantry vehicles. With the likely apparition of Rocket Assisted Projectiles for 125mm (that should have longer range than the 120mm RAP) and longer range rockets of 220mm for the TOS-1, the (M)T-12 would be the alone remaining heavy equipment that must be always inside the range of portable/man-portable weapons of the adversary to do its work, and is likely to be used and totally disappear first.
Also, in the refered to the point 5, to note that I do not expect to see completed the order of Be-200 for the role of maritime patrol. While the selection of the Be-200 and Be-A-42 for the role of maritime patrol is right according to the old model of maritime patrol, a new more modern alternative is coming fast with the development of long range shipborne unmanned aircrafts (including VTOL aircraft/helicopters). The Be-200 has a future as civil aircraft, but for military use, a more modern alternative is too close to spend on new aircrafts of the old mold. The Russian Naval Aviation needs to share procurement standards with the Russian Aerospace Forces, like is said in the point 1, avoiding an image of less technologically advanced air force.
Filnally, there is a potential decission to be made. It is about the adoption of standard calibers for launched grenades (30mm, 45mm and 73mm, the last likely to disappear in the future). For it the 40mm and 43mm grenades can be moved to the standard 45mm caliber. It would be an improvement in standardization and also in the power of the projectiles. Note that the GP-25, GP-30 and GP-34 are not in the list of the point 5 because are a component, but if this decission is made, their production would be stopped too as 40mm grenade launchers.
The new State Armament Program 2018-2025 would give the chance to reach these improvements by 2025. The point 0 can be solved before.