Project 949A: Oscar-II

I suspect at least half of them will be upgraded if not all. That would be a huge step up in kalibr launcher numbers for their navy.

Only Irkutsk and Chelyabinsk will be upgraded to 949AM level.
It is unlikely that the others will be.
These are boats built during the eighties and early nineties.
They are already 30 years old on average.
Upgrades and modernization will add another 10-15 years to their life. At best 20 years.
The Orel and Tomsk have already been modernized (2017 and 2019 respectively), but no Onyx/Kalibr/Zircon.
The rest will be retired by the end of the decade.
So, by 2030 we will have 4 project 949 vessels still in service:
- 2 x 949A (Orel andTomsk) with Granit missiles
- 2 x 949AM (Irkutsk and Chelyabinsk) with Kalibr/Onyx/Zircon missiles

Yasens will be the core of the VMF's SSGN fleet at that time with 10-12 already in service and more building.

Akula are older and yet being upgraded. Their SSN number is low they will have to keep the Oscars.

Yasen has a dual role SSN/SSGN.

Only Irkutsk and Chelyabinsk will be upgraded to 949AM level.
It is unlikely that the others will be.
These are boats built during the eighties and early nineties.
They are already 30 years old on average.
Upgrades and modernization will add another 10-15 years to their life. At best 20 years.

The Irkutsk is the oldest surviving boat and the Chelyabinsk is not much younger as well. I know it has been said that not all would be upgraded, but then it would have made more sense to just upgrade the newest boats? I think in the end they will modernize most of these boats.

Well, if you hear the voices coming from the MIC, they are kind of determined to modernize anything that has some potential left.
Ironically, the fact that those boats survived the 90-00s could mean that they have a lot of life ahead.
I personally see little sense behind modernizing just 2 boats in a line, if you have more of them on hand if those are technically capable of further service.
All the program cost depreciates in a lower hull number means the unitary cost gets higher.

It would be nnice to sea how muchvthey operated them. Yeltsin era was so bad that most spent their time docked.

Until 2010 Russia wasn't that much present on the international scene. I guess they only started using them in 2011. So with an upgrade they can be considered as new boats.

George1 wrote:.......K-442 "Chelyabinsk" will receive hypersonic Zircon missiles.

https://en.topwar.ru/190161-ozhidajuschij-na-dalnevostochnoj-zvezde-modernizacii-antej-poluchit-na-vooruzhenie-giperzvukovye-rakety-cirkon.html

I am really curious how many cruise missiles they plan to fit per tube

Even 2 would be insane upgrade

First they showed 3 per tubes but then said 48 missiles so 2.

Even 48 Cirkons will wipe the whole US strike group out of the surface, leaving smog&fire behind only. 72 pcs would be overkill.

You can´t have enough Tsirkon.

It would actually be smart to have a mix of missiles, with perhaps a quarter Zircons and a half Onyx and perhaps the remaining quarter something else... anti sub missiles or land attack missiles...

You could launch the Onyx missiles first and then time the launch of the Zircons so that they arrive over the horizon just before or just after the Onyx missiles so the Zircons will hammer all the target ships with one hit which will weaken their defences and perhaps leave them as sitting ducks for the slower Onyx missiles following up.

It would mean that a group of ships that might have been able to shoot down some Onyx missiles will more likely get hit by more of them.

Hole wrote:You can´t have enough Tsirkon.

Indeed but those do not grow on trees for free

ALAMO wrote:

Hole wrote:You can´t have enough Tsirkon.

Indeed but those do not grow on trees for free

Next job for the scientists. Design such a tree!

GarryB wrote:It would actually be smart to have a mix of missiles, with perhaps a quarter Zircons and a half Onyx and perhaps the remaining quarter something else... anti sub missiles or land attack missiles...

You could launch the Onyx missiles first and then time the launch of the Zircons so that they arrive over the horizon just before or just after the Onyx missiles so the Zircons will hammer all the target ships with one hit which will weaken their defences and perhaps leave them as sitting ducks for the slower Onyx missiles following up.

It would mean that a group of ships that might have been able to shoot down some Onyx missiles will more likely get hit by more of them.

Given the advantages of Tsirkon in both range and speed, for the AShM role they should be far better than the Oniks, cost and production issues aside. But for land attack roles (wink wink), the Kalibr would be a nice addition, because it is longer ranged. First, a Tsirkon salvo eliminates the (scarce) AD assets and time critical targets, a second salvo of 2500 km range Kalibr reaches practically as far inland as needed and carries a very big warhead. If they can take the famous 4500 km range Kalibr M in the same carriers (questionable since it seems way bigger), then even better, it should have not only a huge range but a massive warhead.

Very much agreed, but with new more energetic fuel the Onyx is supposed to fly at mach 5 over a distance of 800km which is pretty damn good anyway... they already have a few of those in service so using them makes sense... not every ship would need a Zircon to destroy it but many ships would likely need a few missiles to assure it is sunk so a Zircon to damage it and take it out of the fight and a couple of slower missiles to finish it off.

They have subsonic Kalibres designed for anti ship use so 4,500km range to skirt around the carrier group and either pick off their support ships or attack them from a "safe" direction after the Zircons have disabled them and left them as sitting ducks.

Certainly for the purposes of wiping out any comms centres and air defence systems in HATO it would make sense because there are so few and they are concentrated together.... a Zircon able to engage a flying radar would also be valuable too... passively diving down from 50km altitude at 3km/s... it wont know what hit it...

The circling Kaliber-M could be fitted with a jammer instead of a warhead. To jam or fool the radars on the ships from a safe distance.

Hole wrote:The circling Kaliber-M could be fitted with a jammer instead of a warhead. To jam or fool the radars on the ships from a safe distance.

Ship's radar work with some mega watt average power. Your small jammer on a missile will harfly affect them...

Just send it to attack the ship. The more missiles the more chances to go through.

LMFS wrote:
Given the advantages of Tsirkon in both range and speed, for the AShM role they should be far better than the Oniks, cost and production issues aside. But for land attack roles (wink wink), the Kalibr would be a nice addition, because it is longer ranged. First, a Tsirkon salvo eliminates the (scarce) AD assets and time critical targets, a second salvo of 2500 km range Kalibr reaches practically as far inland as needed and carries a very big warhead. If they can take the famous 4500 km range Kalibr M in the same carriers (questionable since it seems way bigger), then even better, it should have not only a huge range but a massive warhead.

Agree but it is a not a bad option to have a mix of attacking missiles. It not only opens up your options attacking less defended targets with cheaper missiles or making things even more difficult for the defending side. Having Tsirkon, Kalibr [M] and Oniks together would be a formidable package!

Isos wrote:

Hole wrote:The circling Kaliber-M could be fitted with a jammer instead of a warhead. To jam or fool the radars on the ships from a safe distance.

Ship's radar work with some mega watt average power. Your small jammer on a missile will harfly affect them...

Just send it to attack the ship. The more missiles the more chances to go through.

The jammer would have the same size as the one that led to the total breakdown of any system on board of the Burke class destroyer a few years ago.

Hole wrote:

Isos wrote:

Hole wrote:The circling Kaliber-M could be fitted with a jammer instead of a warhead. To jam or fool the radars on the ships from a safe distance.

Ship's radar work with some mega watt average power. Your small jammer on a missile will harfly affect them...

Just send it to attack the ship. The more missiles the more chances to go through.

The jammer would have the same size as the one that led to the total breakdown of any system on board of the Burke class destroyer a few years ago.

That's something we don't have proof of. It's just speculation on internet.

Moreover being powered by two al-31 and being powered by a battery is two different things.

Wouldn't need to be a jammer... it could just be a radar faking the radar returns of a flight of Tu-22M3s approaching at medium height and at subsonic speeds... a suitable distraction.... and when it detects incoming missiles it could drop chaff and descend to just above the wavetops and try to hit a ship too.