Syrian War: News #14

PapaDragon wrote:

I've always wondered (well since last year) how that IS pocket/front seems to keep such strength, that far from Raqqa and IS heartland.
Did these people plan their stay during the war for very long? Are these switched FSA using stocked ammo and supplies since before 2011?

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:....................
I've always wondered (well since last year) how that IS pocket/front seems to keep such strength, that far from Raqqa and IS heartland.
Did these people plan their stay during the war for very long? Are these switched FSA using stocked ammo and supplies since before 2011?

Looks like it's just mountains and no roads or settlements.

Easy to hold and not worth the hassle unless you need to secure the flank which they now do.

Manpower, SAA doesn't have enough guys to storm it without taking men away from current fronts. All those pockets and long lines are killing them in this manner. This is why that entire section needs to be captured before they push towards deir.

Currently, the Tiger Forces and other units are trying to seize Rafeshya road. This would allow them to cut off the supply lines to that large black area on the map that is sandwiched between their lines, this is the most sound tactical choice but it's also the hardest one because Sukan needs to fall to fully seize that road and that will make them quite vulnerable to attack so it's also the most difficult one.

If they can capture the road that entire section will not get Supplies anymore at that point ISIS would be finished they would put up a fight for a little bit until they ran out of ammo. This would also allow the SAA to kill them so they cannot be used to reinforce other areas.

This is how the SAA likes to fight "Encircle and kill" They don't like to have to deal with the same guys later

The SAA has around a month before Raqqa falls two at most and that's high balling it, so they have to make magic happen, They will need to take risks. They cannot play it slow right now.

So we will see, currently, I think I'll reach Deir before they will. Still who knows Tiger forces can do work but they are only around 1200 men.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:....................
I've always wondered (well since last year) how that IS pocket/front seems to keep such strength, that far from Raqqa and IS heartland.
Did these people plan their stay during the war for very long? Are these switched FSA using stocked ammo and supplies since before 2011?

Looks like it's just mountains and no roads or settlements.

Easy to hold and not worth the hassle unless you need to secure the flank which they now do.

Manpower, SAA doesn't have enough guys to storm it without taking men away from current fronts. All those pockets and long lines are killing them in this manner. This is why that entire section needs to be captured before they push towards deir.

Currently, the Tiger Forces and other units are trying to seize Rafeshya road. This would allow them to cut off the supply lines to that large black area on the map that is sandwiched between their lines, this is the most sound tactical choice but it's also the hardest one because Sukan needs to fall to fully seize that road and that will make them quite vulnerable to attack so it's also the most difficult one.

If they can capture the road that entire section will not get Supplies anymore at that point ISIS would be finished they would put up a fight for a little bit until they ran out of ammo. This would also allow the SAA to kill them so they cannot be used to reinforce other areas.

This is how the SAA likes to fight "Encircle and kill" They don't like to have to deal with the same guys later

The SAA has around a month before Raqqa falls two at most and that's high balling it, so they have to make magic happen, They will need to take risks. They cannot play it slow right now.

So we will see, currently, I think I'll reach Deir before they will. Still who knows Tiger forces can do work but they are only around 1200 men.

If you get there first expect to have to fight more then ISIS.

franco wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:....................
I've always wondered (well since last year) how that IS pocket/front seems to keep such strength, that far from Raqqa and IS heartland.
Did these people plan their stay during the war for very long? Are these switched FSA using stocked ammo and supplies since before 2011?

Looks like it's just mountains and no roads or settlements.

Easy to hold and not worth the hassle unless you need to secure the flank which they now do.

Manpower, SAA doesn't have enough guys to storm it without taking men away from current fronts. All those pockets and long lines are killing them in this manner. This is why that entire section needs to be captured before they push towards deir.

Currently, the Tiger Forces and other units are trying to seize Rafeshya road. This would allow them to cut off the supply lines to that large black area on the map that is sandwiched between their lines, this is the most sound tactical choice but it's also the hardest one because Sukan needs to fall to fully seize that road and that will make them quite vulnerable to attack so it's also the most difficult one.

If they can capture the road that entire section will not get Supplies anymore at that point ISIS would be finished they would put up a fight for a little bit until they ran out of ammo. This would also allow the SAA to kill them so they cannot be used to reinforce other areas.

This is how the SAA likes to fight "Encircle and kill" They don't like to have to deal with the same guys later

The SAA has around a month before Raqqa falls two at most and that's high balling it, so they have to make magic happen, They will need to take risks. They cannot play it slow right now.

So we will see, currently, I think I'll reach Deir before they will. Still who knows Tiger forces can do work but they are only around 1200 men.

If you get there first expect to have to fight more then ISIS.

I'm sure he does. They are obviously planning it.

But other thing is they can without a deployment of many thousands of his friends. Raqqa was supposed to be a walk, but no.

PapaDragon wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:....................
I've always wondered (well since last year) how that IS pocket/front seems to keep such strength, that far from Raqqa and IS heartland.
Did these people plan their stay during the war for very long? Are these switched FSA using stocked ammo and supplies since before 2011?

Looks like it's just mountains and no roads or settlements.

Over 200 small villages right there.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If they can capture the road that entire section will not get Supplies anymore at that point ISIS would be finished they would put up a fight for a little bit until they ran out of ammo. This would also allow the SAA to kill them so they cannot be used to reinforce other areas.

They can not run out of ammo, they have enough of it, and if got surrounded, they will be supplied by SAA traitors, like all those pocket around Syria. Whole IS territory is one big pocket, but they are not running out of ammo.

The question is will they stay there, like in those 2 huge pockets in Iraq, or will they fall back.
ts in Iraq, or will they fall back.

calm wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If they can capture the road that entire section will not get Supplies anymore at that point ISIS would be finished they would put up a fight for a little bit until they ran out of ammo. This would also allow the SAA to kill them so they cannot be used to reinforce other areas.

They can not run out of ammo, they have enough of it, and if got surrounded, they will be supplied by SAA traitors, like all those pocket around Syria. Whole IS territory is one big pocket, but they are not running out of ammo.

The question is will they stay there, like in those 2 huge pockets in Iraq, or will they fall back.
ts in Iraq, or will they fall back.

ISIS can and has run of ammunition in the past once their supply lines have been cut.

In this case they would stay, I don't see ISIs handing over that land easy.

JohninMK wrote:Another map showing the latest advance. I wonder how much ISIS west of that north/south road is currently moving east as quickly as they can?

Not sure why but I cannot see your links... ever.
When I quote you as in right now, can see the address for your link but on the page...nothing.
Strange but my theory is that computers are like women and automobiles... temperamental and often beyond my comprehension.

JohninMK wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

calm wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If they can capture the road that entire section will not get Supplies anymore at that point ISIS would be finished they would put up a fight for a little bit until they ran out of ammo. This would also allow the SAA to kill them so they cannot be used to reinforce other areas.

They can not run out of ammo, they have enough of it, and if got surrounded, they will be supplied by SAA traitors, like all those pocket around Syria. Whole IS territory is one big pocket, but they are not running out of ammo.

The question is will they stay there, like in those 2 huge pockets in Iraq, or will they fall back.
ts in Iraq, or will they fall back.

ISIS can and has run of ammunition in the past once their supply lines have been cut.

In this case they would stay, I don't see ISIs handing over that land easy.

Not sure why you think progress will be relatively quick enough in Raqqa for the SDF to beat the SAA to Deir. The view today from your leader is that ISIS won't hand over Raqqa easy either. The SAA could have enough time to get there.

None of us know what the SyAF/RuAF would do if the SDF struck towards Deir on the south bank, for speed bypassing the towns on the river, in an obvious attempt to cut the path of the SAA.

The operation by the US-led coalition to liberate the Syrian city of Raqqa from Daesh terror group (banned in Russia) could still take months to complete, US Central Command (CENTCOM) head Gen. Joseph Votel said in an interview published on Friday.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — "We would expect they are going to fight harder and more aggressively than they are, and a large part of that is going to be exploited again," Votel said in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times. "So, I think it is going to be a challenging fight and it will take months."

Votel noted that the operation to retake the city of Mosul in Iraq from the Islamic State took nine months. By comparison, the terror group has had years to prepare for the Raqqa offensive, Votel said.

The CENTCOM commander also noted that the US-backed forces fighting in Syria are not supported by the government there, while the US partners in Iraq are. "They don’t have all the trapping of a big army," he added.

Votel has a history of saying one thing in public and another in private granted it could take longer this is just an estimate we have right now.

Months would in this case 2-3 if I am to believe what he says an in an interview, to which I know what he says when not in one.

Sure the kurds could fuck up tons along the way about the only dam thing they are good at.

[quote="KiloGolf"]

PapaDragon wrote:
I've always wondered (well since last year) how that IS pocket/front seems to keep such strength, that far from Raqqa and IS heartland.
Did these people plan their stay during the war for very long? Are these switched FSA using stocked ammo and supplies since before 2011?

Mountains are difficult terrain , tanks cannot be used ,and people need to climb on foot .
and elevated positions have a better view /angle of attack. is even difficult for helicopters
to fight in mountains and for being higher terrain , manpads can reach even higher altitudes.
To fight in mountains is very slow. Combined with the lack of Syria army of man power after losing more than 100k soldiers in 6 years of war with many of their veterans ,killed. And combined with US coalition ,TUrkey and Israel pressure with their military invasion in Syria and their bombings of their airforce on Syrian army positions.

Erdogan by having its own Army and its backed terrorist in Idlib and latakia, and supporting for years terrorist to fight Assad ,represent the biggest security threat to Syria ,even more than ISIS.  Because their positions in northern Syria Force the Syrian government to waste
a lot of man power adjacent to their positions to stop any attempt to continue advancing.
If Turkey military abandoned Syria ,and ceased to support their terrorist in IDLIB ,it will allow
Syria military to free its largest concentration of soldiers in Syria and put them to work to fight ISIS and other terrorist instead of being forced to hold positions. On the southern Front is the same. US-Jordan and Israel positions there force Syrian army to deploy a large number of military in defensive positions. soldiers they could use elsewhere to fight ISIS and other terrorist. this is actually the real aim of Turkey and NATO forces in Syria , to make it more difficult to fight ISIS ,and in the case of Turkey they also wants to push back kurds.