Syrian War: News #19

A new phase of the war begins. A new phase of open fronts, where every side has the opportunity to supply their own forces. It means a more difficult war.

The war vs pockets finished. But where are the real fronts?

A complete map of the region can help:



In the Southern side the frontline is clear:

- Lebanon-Israel border.
- Golan border inside Syria.
- Syria-Jordan border.
- Al-Tanf are border inside Syria.
- Iraq-Jordan border.
- Iraq-Saudi Arabia border.
- Iraq-Kuwait border.

In the Southern frontline only the areas of Al-Tanf and the Golan remain occupied by foreign forces, but the borders between countries are part of the real frontline and complete the line.

And in the North? Where is the real frontline?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-lebanese-army-deploys-large-force-near-israeli-border/

Breaking: Lebanese Army deploys large force near Israeli border
By Leith Aboufadel - 2018-12-112

BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:30 P.M.) – A large number of reinforcements from the Lebanese Army poured into the Nabatieh Governorate of southern Lebanon this afternoon.

According to a military source, the Lebanese Army deployed these reinforcements near the United Nations’ “blue line” in the town of Mays Al-Jabal.

The reinforcements were reportedly sent by the Lebanese Army in response to the large buildup of Israeli troops along the border of the Upper Galilee region.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is currently digging at several border-towns near the United Nations’ blue line; they have increased their presence in the area over the least 72 hours.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-moved-s-300-system-near-us-forces-in-east-syria-report/

Russian military moved S-300 system near US forces in east Syria – report
By News Desk - 2018-12-122


BEIRUT, LEBANON (10:50 P.M.) – The Russian military allegedly moved their S-300 air defense system near the front-lines of the U.S. Coalition forces in eastern Syria, Saudi-based Asharq Al-Aswat claimed, citing diplomatic sources.

“In the past days, Russia began moving some parts of the S-300 sophisticated system to Deir Ezzor, a step that would make the flyover of coalition planes (in missions) against ISIS east of the Euphrates River more difficult,” the Asharq Al-Aswat sources claimed.

The Syrian and Russian forces have not yet commented on these claims by the publication.

On October 1st of this year, the Russian Federation delivered the S-300 air defense system to Syria.

The move to deliver the S-300 system to Syria came just two-weeks after the downing of the IL-20 reconnaissance aircraft off the coast of Latakia.

eehnie wrote:A new phase of the war begins. A new phase of open fronts, where every side has the opportunity to supply their own forces. It means a more difficult war.

The war vs pockets finished. But where are the real fronts?

A complete map of the region can help:

In the Southern side the frontline is clear:

- Lebanon-Israel border.
- Golan border inside Syria.
- Syria-Jordan border.
- Al-Tanf are border inside Syria.
- Iraq-Jordan border.
- Iraq-Saudi Arabia border.
- Iraq-Kuwait border.

In the Southern frontline only the areas of Al-Tanf and the Golan remain occupied by foreign forces, but the borders between countries are part of the real frontline and complete the line.

And in the North? Where is the real frontline?

When analizing wars and conflicts you need to take into account Politics interest.
For example for Trump will be suicide to start a ground invasion from Jordan into Syria to remove
Assad ,when he promising to get along Russia and a policy of peace.. he will lose all his supporters..
or most of them.. a ground invasion from AL-tanf base will require at least 30k or 40k soldiers.. that they dont
have and they will be no cover , no close air support from NATO in such illegal operation..and Russia will be bombing US and its rebels ,if dare to capture more territory.. from that front line in Al-tanf.

In short the Al- Tanf front line is a dead one.. for Americans.. it is similar to the position of Russia in serbia ,when captured a military base. too little ,too late.. so it will be hard to advance there with Russia airforce
bombing every inch they invade. The only thing US can do with Al-tanf is harrass and annoy SYrian army..
or try to target Syria air defenses with artillery ,but Syria can easily retaliate.

The kurds zone.. is not worth of taking it.. for now, is more problematic for Edogan than for Syria that zone.
is another dead/frozen front line ,at least for Syria is.. Since it will be hard to do a major advance in the other side
of the euphrates river. The kurds zone can be a pain in the ass for Americans to hold , if Turkey seeks to remove kurds by force.. So for Russia will be better to grab popcorn and observe Turkey and US military to face each other. and see Kurds kicked from there..  

IRAQ will not attack Syria.. they are friends.
So the only frontlines that Syria needs to clear is idlib. that is not fa from Russian base.

so probable future in Syria could be..
-Americans gets tired of being there and leave..
-Turkey invade kurds zones and take control of it..
-Russia start an offensive in IDlib to do the same..
-Syria take control of parts of idlib and turkey too.
-eventually when Erdogan no longer inpower ,Turkey future governments will recall its troops
 to restore relations with Syria, so eventually Syria can retake all its remaining lands without firing a shot.

So in my opinion only IDLIB is the zone Russia and Syria need to try to take at earliest as possible..
is the zone targeting Russian base. but in the east of Euphrates ,this is a zone Russia can use for their advantage.
to get Turkey and US and its backed rebels fighting each other.. so the kurds and the Americans eventually will be forced out of all their lands by Turkey. and later after that Turkey forced to leave ,and Russia retake all Syria without a fight.. the crimean way. in the case of Kurds zones. inthe southern border.. Israel army is small and weak.it will suffer major casualties if invade lebanon .. with well armed hezbolah..

Vann7 wrote:When analizing wars and conflicts you need to take into account Politics interest.
For example for Trump will be suicide to start a ground invasion from Jordan into Syria to remove
Assad ,when he promising to get along Russia and a policy of peace.. he will lose all his supporters..
or most of them.. a ground invasion from AL-tanf base will require at least 30k or 40k soldiers.. that they dont
have and they will be no cover , no close air support from NATO in such illegal operation..and Russia will be bombing US and its rebels ,if dare to capture more territory.. from that front line in Al-tanf.

In short the Al- Tanf front line is a dead one.. for Americans.. it is similar to the position of Russia in serbia ,when captured a military base. too little ,too late.. so it will be hard to advance there with Russia airforce
bombing every inch they invade. The only thing US can do with Al-tanf is harrass and annoy SYrian army..
or try to target Syria air defenses with artillery ,but Syria can easily retaliate.

The kurds zone.. is not worth of taking it.. for now, is more problematic for Edogan than for Syria that zone.
is another dead/frozen front line ,at least for Syria is.. Since it will be hard to do a major advance in the other side
of the euphrates river. The kurds zone can be a pain in the ass for Americans to hold , if Turkey seeks to remove kurds by force.. So for Russia will be better to grab popcorn and observe Turkey and US military to face each other. and see Kurds kicked from there..  

IRAQ will not attack Syria.. they are friends.
So the only frontlines that Syria needs to clear is idlib. that is not fa from Russian base.

so probable future in Syria could be..
-Americans gets tired of being there and leave..
-Turkey invade kurds zones and take control of it..
-Russia start an offensive in IDlib to do the same..
-Syria take control of parts of idlib and turkey too.
-eventually when Erdogan no longer inpower ,Turkey future governments will recall its troops
 to restore relations with Syria, so eventually Syria can retake all its remaining lands without firing a shot.

The 3 Arab countries with shia gouvernment (Lebanon, Syria and Iraq) are friends and allies. This is clear.

At this point only Israel and the US are keeping the tension in the Southern front. Saudi Arabia and their Arab allies in the area are distracted with Yemen. If Saudi Arabia and their allies defeat the Yemeni shia forces, they will turn again against Syria, Iraq and Lebanon to try a sunni domination of these countries.

I have not doubt that the US and Israel want Turkey plus Saudi Arabia and their Arab allies increasingly involved in this war. They love others fighting their wars. And until now, they have been more successfull with Turkey than with Saudi Arabia and their Arab allies... You seem to have more confidance in Turkey than in the gouvernment of Russia...

The new phase of the war requires preparation. In the refered to Al-Tanf, for Syria does not make sense to wait more than the necessary for a right preparation.

Current situation. Territory under control of Government in Damascus and illegal armed formation in Syria.

SAA - 11.6471 Km^2
Terror - 70.500 Km^2

Or like this, all of them in different color.

SAA : 116471,34 Km^2 (62,24%)
- SDF : 51159,22 Km^2 (27,34%)
- Rebels : 18126 Km^2 (9,7%)
- ISIS : 1360,3 Km^2 (0,73%)

https://southfront.org/russia-established-new-base-near-al-tanaf-report/

RUSSIA ESTABLISHED NEW BASE NEAR AL-TANAF – REPORT
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Russia Established New Base Near Al-Tanaf – Report
FILE IMAGE: Russian Special Operations Forces troops are in Syria

Russian forces have established a base in the area of Zaza right on the 55km de-escalation zone line around the US-led coalition base in the town of al-Tanaf on the Syrian-Iraqi border, Syrian pro-government activists revealed on December 12.

A source, who is familiar with the situation, told SouthFront that several advanced air-defense systems and other military equipment were deployed in the new Russian base. More weapons, including heavy rocket launchers, are expected to arrive in the base in the upcoming few days.

Earlier this month, the US-led coalition launched several rockets from its base in al-Tanaf at positions of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the nearby al-Ghurab mount. The attack didn’t result in any casualties and the coalition never acknowledge it.

Few days after the incident, the Ministry of Defense of Russia revealed that it had suggested the idea of jointly operating the al-Tanaf base in order to avoid any conflict in the area. However, the U.S. was not interested.

The increased activity of Russian forces around al-Tanaf is aimed at deterring and pressuring the US-led coalition, according to local observers, who believe these steps may eventually force Washington to withdraw its troops from the strategic border area.

^
Terrorists are attacking SAA on that place!

Breaking: Intense clashes breakout between Syrian Army, US-backed forces near Tanf region
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-intense-clashes-breakout-between-syrian-army-us-backed-forces-near-tanf-region/


Clashes between Maghawir Al-Thawra and Regime Axis Forces at Al-Zarqa crossroad,near Al-Tanf Base

Regime Axis Forces withdrew from Al-Zarqa area https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/1073375267714936832

Can anyone explain this??

Israel’s Regional Cooperation Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said earlier this month that the S-300’s capabilities have long been factored in Israel’s strategic planning.

The former general director of the main design bureau of the Almaz-Antei concern, Igor Ashurbeili, said
that part of the S-300 technology had been stolen by the United States.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-upgrading-f-35s-amid-s-300-delivery-to-syria-reports/

Vann7 wrote:

Can anyone explain this??

Israel’s Regional Cooperation Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said earlier this month that the S-300’s capabilities have long been factored in Israel’s strategic planning.

The former general director of the main design bureau of the Almaz-Antei concern, Igor Ashurbeili, said
that part of the S-300 technology had been stolen by the United States.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-upgrading-f-35s-amid-s-300-delivery-to-syria-reports/

They got access to many s-300. Even nato countries have it. But that's earlier versions before PMU2 that used 70km range 5V55 missiles.

Anyway it still is a powerfull system. Trying to jamm it with a fighter's self protection ecm is a suicide mission that no pilot would try.

ELINT News
ELINT News
@ELINTNews
·
9h
#UPDATE: A massive Israeli Air Force (IAF) exercise will be carried out in the coming hours above the eastern Mediterranean Sea involving over 80 warplanes & other military jets. Air-to-Air & air-to-ground attack scenarios will be practised during the drill -
@BabakTaghvaee



Babak Taghvaee
Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
·
11h
#BREAKING: #Israel Air Force will have a large exercise tomorrow in east of #MediterraneanSea. Air to air & air to ground scenarios will be practiced which includes SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense). More than 80 fighter jets will take part in the exercise. (Archive image)

The Iraqi Air Force destroyed two buildings in the Syrian town of Hajin used by the leaders of the Islamic State (terror group, banned in Russia) in an airstrike on December 11, the Iraqi Defense Ministry said Monday.
DAMASCUS (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 17th December, 2018) The Iraqi Air Force destroyed two buildings in the Syrian town of Hajin used by the leaders of the Islamic State (terror group, banned in Russia) in an airstrike on December 11, the Iraqi Defense Ministry said Monday.

"The airstrike completely destroyed two buildings. They were used by the IS senior officials for regular meetings," the statement said.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/iraqi-jets-destroyed-2-is-leaders-meeting-poi-508439.html

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday that his US counterpart Donald Trump had approved of the prospective military operation that Ankara was planning to launch in Syria against Kurdish forces on the eastern bank of the Euphrates river in Syria.
ANKARA (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 17th December, 2018) Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday that his US counterpart Donald Trump had approved of the prospective military operation that Ankara was planning to launch in Syria against Kurdish forces on the eastern bank of the Euphrates river in Syria.

Last Wednesday, Erdogan announced that the Turkish army was ready to start an offensive on the Euphrates east ban in the nearest time. US Defense Department spokesperson Cmdr. Sean Robertson told Sputnik shortly afterwards that Turkey's prospective unilateral military operation in northeast Syria if launched would be unacceptable.

"There is no more Islamic State [IS terror group, banned in Russia] in Syria, it is used as a pretext. We will not permit creation of a terrorist corridor there. Three operations have been carried out by us in Syria, now it is the turn Euphrates east bank. We have announced it officially, spoken on the phone with Trump and received a positive response," Erdogan said at a rally, broadcast by the NTV channel.


https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/erdogan-says-trump-greenlighted-turkish-offen-508472.html

Turks killed another Russian serviceman in Latakia today. So much for Putin being a tough guy. I guess Russian lives mean nothing to Putin. VOTE HIM OUT! If I were Russia president I steam roll those bitches in Idlib.

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/a6zz76/russian_soldier_from_vdv_killed_in_latakia_by_nlf/

Time for Idlib will come too. Russia and.co are abandoning short term goals in favor of more long term ones.

If the Turks go through with the invasion of the north this opens up a whole new can of worms for Russia to exploit if it plays its cards right..... for one, the deal with the U.S demarcating the Euphrates River will hold no validity and Russia should exploit this and play dirty, move on to the oil fields and secure a wider corridor between Iraq and Syria.

The only resistance will be scattered Arabs (which would rather run or "re-join" ISIS) and the U.S air force, which should be nullified by Russia if it maneuvers the situation correctly. If the U.S can't hold territory because its proxy is engaging the Turks/Wahabbi's in the North, 1/3 of Syria will be free-for-all land - the only thing holding it together - U.S threats of retribution.

But this is more of a wishlist per say. Knowing Russia and how scared shitless they're of the Ukraine situation worsening, it's more or less handicapped in trying to pull a dirty move on the U.S like this.

Make no mistake. This is a a good cop bad cop show put on by America and Turkey. Turkey is NATO, extremely hostile to Russia, talking crap about Russia, selling UCAV to Ukraine and what not. The plan is Turkey would take control of the rest of Syria, launch attack on Damascus, kill Assad, weaken Russia's position in the ME. Putin ain't too bright if he falls for it.

ultimatewarrior wrote:Make no mistake. This is a a good cop bad cop show put on by America and Turkey. Turkey is NATO, extremely hostile to Russia, talking crap about Russia, selling UCAV to Ukraine and what not. The plan is Turkey would take control of the rest of Syria, launch attack on Damascus, kill Assad, weaken Russia's position in the ME. Putin ain't too bright if he falls for it.

Even if what you say may be true, the more reason to trash the "deal" between the U.S and Russia that defacto handed over 1/3 of Syria to U.S control and use this operation by the Turks as the smoke screen to retake as much of East of the Euphrates as the troops can.

Some magic scenario where the YPG folds to Russia/Assad and sells out America is a dream but even if that were the case the moment the YPG does so is the moment the U.S will pivot back to Turkey to continue to play the spoiler role with the new acquired territories under Turkish control and its FSA proxies.

In essence - moving into "SDF" territory must happen one way or another if this Turkish operation gets under way.

U.S pullout?

Babak Taghvaee
Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
·
16m
#BREAKING: #US is going to withdraw its troops from #Syria leaving #SDF & #YPG to be defeated by #Turkey's Army soon. #US President #Trump announced that the goal for defeating #ISIL terrorists is now achieved. #US Army withdrawal from #Syria is part of a secret deal with #Turkey


We will soon see either an alliance russia turkey or a war russia turkey. Depend on what erdogan choose. If he keeps with the idea of removing Assad its forces will be destroyed by russia. Remember they also send many sukhois in Crimea that could be used against them. Actually they send too much of them just for ukrainian crisis.

South military district is also making every exercice possible since one month ago. Maybe they are ready to attack Turkey from the east while sukhois attack from the north and Kurds from tge south.

SR
@Syrian_SR
Massive #SAA reinforcements heading towards the east and north east

Massive Russian build up near Al Tnaf area

The pocket protected by USA will be stormed by russia. They will all go in jordan and back to Europe. Europe fucked again by usa.

Isos wrote:Babak Taghvaee
Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
·
16m
#BREAKING: #US is going to withdraw its troops from #Syria leaving #SDF & #YPG to be defeated by #Turkey's Army soon. #US President #Trump announced that the goal for defeating #ISIL terrorists is now achieved. #US Army withdrawal from #Syria is part of a secret deal with #Turkey


We will soon see either an alliance russia turkey or a war russia turkey. Depend on what erdogan choose. If he keeps with the idea of removing Assad its forces will be destroyed by russia. Remember they also send many sukhois in Crimea that could be used against them. Actually they send too much of them just for ukrainian crisis.

South military district is also making every exercice possible since one month ago. Maybe they are ready to attack Turkey from the east while sukhois attack from the north and Kurds from tge south.

You really think Russia is going to jeopardize the billions in deals with the Turks for that??... Hell no. TurkStream alone tells you No. And there are many more deals and economic ties besides that. 0 chance.

Russia should indeed push all out on East of Euphrates and reach a deal with the Turks for a small northern buffer until the YPG situation gets resolved by Assad (i.e death or assimilation under central command).

Looks like the pullout deal is real. The devil is in the details of course. Britts and French supposedly staying... which means its time to get the fleas out.

It's either that or the U.S also made a deal with Russia to complement this Turkey deal (to avoid 1/3 of Syria from becoming a free-for-all) - which for obvious reasons will not be publicized.

Okay, I didn't pay any attention to this hour ago but it's all over the web now

Looks like they might actually be packing but I'll believe it when I see it...

U.S. begins to pull forces from Syria, officials see full withdrawal

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-syria/u-s-eyes-complete-withdrawal-of-troops-from-syria-u-s-officials-idUSKBN1OI1JC

If true, I wonder if the Kurds will blame Russia again?

They got what they deserved. Now all Russia has to do is force Syria and Turkey to negotiate. Turkey has won well in this as well, and they have developed new relations with Russia too.

As if the Kurd leadership really cared. Fat pockets... and sayonara!!!

Crazy commies cooperating with evil international... please... they are commies as much as the Chinese.

And Yes, after a big time fuck up Erdogan has maneuvered wonderfully. Vladimir must be biting his nails....