Syrian War: News #19

JohninMK wrote:Time to sit back and think about the new reality rather than do something that would be regretted later?


Ragıp Soylu
‏Verified account @ragipsoylu
3h3 hours ago

BREAKING — Turkey postpones a military operation on North Eastern Syria against US partner SDF following Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from this country, Erdogan announces


The'Nimr'Tiger
‏ @Souria4Syrians
2h2 hours ago

#Erdogan said today: the current East Euphrates operation will be delayed in order to plan for an ever bigger operation which will involve international partners to defeat terrorists in Syria

It's gonna be a race. Kurdq will let russia and SAA control the east. They already send a delegation.

SR
@Syrian_SR
·
21h
#RuAF #SyAAF to resumes air sorties over east #Syria soon

GarryB wrote:

The U.S public has had little say for decades on foreign entanglements. They've been voting for "restrainers" for decades and gotten cheated every single time because this bureaucracy supersedes them and has made it an art of boxing presidents politically to get what they want.

Actually that is not true... the US public last had their say when they elected Trump over Hilary... and what a shock to the US system that was... Hilary was supposed to win... everyone had been paid for and all the media supported it.

The fact is that clearly the US public have had enough of foreign wars that really have nothing at all to do with US security and safety, and actually in fact often reduce the safety and security of the US. Osama Bin Laden attacked the WTC buildings because of US soldiers in Saudi Arabia for the various attacks and invasions of Iraq.

Trump knows that he got in because he said he would bring american troops out of foreign shithole wars and now he is actually delivering on his promises... which I think is a good thing for America and might just be the thing that gets him re-elected for a second term in office... despite having largely broken everything else.

Maybe for his second term he wont hire such dicks around him that really don't want him to get his way... Bolton and Pompeo and Mattis are hardly interested in bringing the troops home or saving some money on defence...

@Eehnie... yes... our American friend claims to be able to see the future, but it seems he didn't see that one coming... of course it might end up like the withdrawal from Germany and Japan after WWII... like the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan etc etc...

There will be no complete withdrawal, they may take away a few thousand who are there "officially". But there are more troops then whats admitted to.

This is mostly a saving face move by Trump "I am doing what I promised remember to re-elect me".

Trump may agree to let the turks have some additional land, along their border to make them happy.

Fact is no one knew he was going to say something like that, which shows it was a spilt second decision.

Delegations have met between Assad and kurds many many times and nothing ever happens. I have heard kurd leaders say they will hand over something to Assad it never happens.

Now is it possible we will pull out? Sure but in over 30 years we have never fully removed troops from anywhere. So my statement is based on years of experience and how things work.

Do I personally think we should leave Syria, yes. But I don't see it happening.

first, it would take 30 days, then 60 now 100. Trump also has a habit of saying things and later changing his mind or "clarifying" what he meant. I am going to help you here, the number of troops the pentagon said is "2000" We have more than 2000 men there. It does not take 60 days to move 2000 men. With our Airlift capabilities.

It's only been 2 days since he said that and already it's look like nothing more than a glorified PR move., don't count your chickens before they hatch.

That said in the rare and slim chance this is true, if the Kurds value their lives. Assad at this point is their only hope otherwise, they will be attacked by turkey and Assad, because Assad cannot allow the turks to take over all of that land.

so it's either go back to being under Assad or will get killed by the SAA and Turkish Army.

Those are the only two choices IF we really do pull out. There is no in-between for them at that point.

In the last 30 years I can say you at least two cases where the US did a ccomplete withdrawal:

- Uzbekistan
- Kyrgyzstan

Maybe more.

Despite it, Im not between the people that gives credit to the words of Donald Trump, and neither of those that give credit to the words of the US warlords.

eehnie wrote:In the last 30 years I can say you at least two cases where the US did a ccomplete withdrawal:

- Uzbekistan
- Kyrgyzstan

Maybe more.

Despite it, Im not between the people that gives credit to the words of Donald Trump, and neither of those that give credit to the words of the US warlords.

you know your lack of history amuses we never formally sent ground troops into Kyrgyzstan.

We did lease a base from them, So no that's not a withdrawal. The lease was up and we left.

Same deal for Uzbekistan we did not have ground troops on the ground there just took over an airbase and we left when asked.

That's a much different situation than Syria. Where we have active ground forces and much more.

[quote="SeigSoloyvov"][quote="GarryB"]

There will be no complete withdrawal, they may take away a few thousand who are there "officially". But there are more troops then whats admitted to.

This is mostly a saving face move by Trump "I am doing what I promised remember to re-elect me".

Trump may agree to let the turks have some additional land, along their border to make them happy.

Fact is no one knew he was going to say something like that, which shows it was a spilt second decision.

Delegations have met between Assad and kurds many many times and nothing ever happens. I have heard kurd leaders say they will hand over something to Assad it never happens.

Now is it possible we will pull out? Sure but in over 30 years we have never fully removed troops from anywhere. So my statement is based on years of experience and how things work.

Do I personally think we should leave Syria, yes. But I don't see it happening.

You have a point there..
But in all other previous wars.. Americans never faced an Invasion to their Invasion.. .. at least since
1950  in the korean war ..   It was a full 100% withdrawal from north korea after it was captured.
and the US military generals called a tactical retreat.  Chinesse red invasion forced US to retreat..
So Americans do respect force.. And if they don't leave North of Syria ,they not only put at risk the lives of
their military ,when Turkey Invades. what will happen if a buthurt humiliated American soldier at observing how TUrkey troops rape kurdish women or kill their allies  fire at Turkey troops? .. then you will get a lot of cross fire
between Turkey and US troops in North of Syria.. So as soon Turkey invade..as soon the american forces will leave.
the question is what equipment US forces are ready to leave behind? IF US forces don't want to be in north of Syria
when Turkey invade,,then they better will need to pack their most important things and start moving their equipment ,the most heavy one out of Syria.   So at least , in north of Syria ,US forces will need to retreat.. once Turkey invades in one zone.. they will continue pushing and pushing and expanding until they capture it all..

So is unlikely Americans will hold north of Syria with their military unless they Bribe $$$ Erdogan very well. with economic aid.. to allow US troops there. But since Trump will not like such an humiliating thing ,will prefer to push US forces out .and not lose Turkey as an ally Kurds.. since Turkey will be much more important asset for Americans than Kurds in countering Russia.  The only place US Troops could have a chance to stay.. is in the Syrian desert in the east with jordan border.  to be there only to continue harassing Syria and Aiding Israel with forward intelligence ,about SYria and IRAN positions.

So make no mistake, the fate of US troops in North of Syria is over..  US military generals will try to bribe Erdogan with some deal but Trump will not like to stay there any way and will sabotage any movement to bribe $$$ Erdogan to allow US troops in North of Turkey.  This also will be a major embarrassment to United states in the world..because will teach other nations ,that US can retreat ,with the use of FORCE..  perhaps Putin will learn more clearly after US pull out of north of syria ,why being strong for a leader is better than weak and polite .  Being strong inspire obedience and respect, being weak and soft encourage the opposite.

When it comes to Russia is likely they will not oppose Turkey invasion , since Russia objectives are not
to restore 100% of the territory of Syria.. Russia only objectives are defeat ISIS and every other terrorist..
and save the Syrian state from being over run and now those goals achieved.. then now Russia objectives is to give them a chance to recover all remaining territory or parts of it ,using diplomacy.. Something that have big chances to happen ,because Turkey popularity is very low in Turkey ,and any opposing government that siege power can easily reverse their policies of interference in Syria. So i give Syria a 70% chance of recovering all of Syria
through diplomacy and economic development. and Erdogan will have only a small chance to hold power for another decade ,and keep the support for their invasion on Syria..

.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

eehnie wrote:In the last 30 years I can say you at least two cases where the US did a ccomplete withdrawal:

- Uzbekistan
- Kyrgyzstan

Maybe more.

Despite it, Im not between the people that gives credit to the words of Donald Trump, and neither of those that give credit to the words of the US warlords.

you know your lack of history amuses we never formally sent ground troops into Kyrgyzstan.

We did lease a base from them, So no that's not a withdrawal. The lease was up and we left.

Same deal for Uzbekistan we did not have ground troops on the ground there just took over an airbase and we left when asked.

That's a much different situation than Syria. Where we have active ground forces and much more.

Did you read ground troops in my comment? No...

My comment was right.

There an idea that keeps coming on twitter of a russian-french coalition against Turkish operation to protect kurds. Possible but winder how much possible.

Anyway kurds seem to have totally forgotten their Kurdistan and trying to find a solution to survive...

Official syrians are quite over the big news. Maybe they had talks with US to protect kurds and let them some freedom in their areas and US go away from syria. On the other side they said to turks buy our patriot and we let you destroy kurds while they had an agreement with russian/syrian to get those areas faster and deny the possibility of attacking to turks.

If true it's a nice play from Trump. Leave syria like its voters expected, protect kurds, restore US influence in Turkey and syria is not their problem anymore while its "allies" are let alone and understand that without US they can't stop turks and protect a small population let alone have an EU army to fight russia ...

Isos wrote:If true it's a nice play from Trump.

 Isos trying hard  

Trump is fucked and as the amateur that he's he picked a horrible time to pull out but he had no guts to do it before. Only when Erdogan pushed him did he find the strength to revert to his common sense, use the situation (Turk impeding invasion) as an excuse to tell his own generals and the CIA to go fuck a kite.

Now he's not only dealing with a rebellious security establishment (Pentagon/CIA) but also with a government shutdown as he's getting backstabed by his own party (the one he helped to keep a majority in the Senate) on border wall funding (after he got played the year before when he had an even greater majority). The Pengaton/CIA are already trying to play him, with a nice PR campaign in full force, to keep a force down there, any type of force - that's is, small special forces contingent, and upping the number of MERCs (with CIA spooks embedded of course to run the ship) etc... this, while still backing them with air support - and keeping the French/British contingent to make the operation look stronger than it's. Perhaps even adding Arabs as the above poster mentioned.

It's because of all this that I find it highly unlikely that the CIA's creation - the Syrian Democratic Forces (aka SDF) - will be willing to cut a deal that satisfies Turkey and the SAA. Turkey was pretty clear before the Afrin OP that the only deal they would consider from the SAA/Russia is a deal that sees this group unilaterally disarm to the SAA/Russia. Any other deal they won't accept. And it seems to me, the SDF, knowing of all of this will drag its foot to avoid doing just exactly that - knowing full well that this is where the friction is. After all, what is the SDF if not a CIA front - full of CIA assets. So you can expect every trick in the book to keep the situation as is - and the Gulf Monarchies and the Europeans will chip in on any of these alternatives - not to mention the Israeli's.

So that's just the Syria issue - with the PR campaign not only pushing him to recant, but also hitting him with the Putin puppet line that paralyzes him. On top of that he's also facing a government shutdown that's gonna send Wall Street markets down, to compound the already mounting concerns and speculation about the China trade deal that's keeping the markets down, on top of the effect the soon to be coming Fed rate hike brings. The traitors in his party know the president is getting shelled so they'll take up on the opportunity to fuck him again with the border wall shenanigan. At worst, for them, the President capitulates, which is exactly what they want.

But that's not all for Trump - the Christmas gift, from Kiev with Love, is yet to arrive via UPS. And you can be damn sure the stars are aligning for all the players hostile to peace to pull off such a provocation like this, to compound Trump's headaches at home. It will perfectly play into the Russia narrative, it will force the president to take some sort of measure hostile to Russia (as a fact) with regards to Ukraine (thus upping and escalating the matter) and it will also play into bigger narratives and machinations at play in Europe in so far as the Russia threat (INF treaty pullout for example- it's all about building the narrative and ground work to deploy). This will also play into the machinations at play by the security establishment on the Syria pullout (by surrendering to Putin bla bla). So it's a sort of perfect storm too perfect to be passed up - the great game at its best. And Trump has a government shutdown to deal with? Something's gotta give? I find it highly unlikely that Trump doesn't cave somewhere....

Strap in boys...

You are wrong @ATlas.. Trump is on record many times in Twiiter demanding the Troops leaving Syria.. this is
withing months he was in the Presidency.. So saying he "does not have the balls" is not true...  Is more like
Trump did not have all the power need ,all the support  to remove the US military from Syria.. thats a totally different thing.

The US congress and the Pentagon and CIA+all other intelligence agencies ,this is where the real power Is..
Obviously you know very about how US power is shared.. officially speaking..the congress its majority ,can
remove/impeach the President.. they are more powerful than the President of United States. And both parties in
the US congress.. vast majority of them support the war on Syria.. So Trump can take the risk a sign an executive
decision ...but later the military can just Ignore it... so effectively making him look like an idiot and a weak President.. and Trump will be forced to kick hundred of generals and in a very Slow process ,get them accepted
by Congress.. In Short @ATlas.. Trump does not have all the power.. he is only the executive part of the power..
the Congress its majority if united ,can run United States from their house.. bypassing Trump.. if they desire it..
This however maybe/maybe not could bring problems for their popularity of US lawmakers,and even bring civil unrest in the nation if ,the news are spread that the Congress is sabotaging Trump demands from removing Troops from Syria..

The entire thing could be a circus , a show ,of Trump to earn points with his fanbase.. but it could be also REAL.
and it look like this time ,Trump is pushing for real ,for the military to leave.. will they listen?  thats a different question. here is the most important thing.. underlined for you. that is in what way Trump can pressure the Congress and military to obey... and is called consequences/blowback for dissobeying an order of the President of United states... if for example ..Turkey Army invade east of euphrates and many hundreds of American soldiers ends killed in across fire or because unintended/intended consequences.. by Turkey . that is hundreds of American soldiers or even more killed. Then Trump can wash his hands ,point fingers at the Pentagon generals and congress...for boycotting his Order.. and then you will have millions of furious Americans on the streets demanding the arrest of Generals and key leaders in US Congress for TREASON ,for causing the dead of hundreds of US soldiers.. for Disobeying a direct order of the Pressident of United States..   So even if Trump have hands tied...
now with Turkey announced invasion. Erdogan show of force ,will end helping Trump ,to get his troops out of Syria for real.  Because i don't see any possibility for US and Turkey troops to get along together if Turkey army start killing Kurds military forces in front American soldiers.. then will come in their defense somehow. and will create major tensions between both.. a million things can go wrong.. having 2 factions with totally opposite objectives
in the same place.

So this Turkey invasion if happens..and the military fails in bribing Erdogan to not do it ,could end helping a LOT Trump ,to get the US military forces to withdraw from Syria or at least from the north of Syria... Still there is abig
chance US forces will remain in the east of Syrian desert in the small 55km zone they created near Jordan border.


In other news.. a classic CIA/Mi6/Mossad ..false flag operation..it looks that happened recently in Morocco..

https://sputniknews.com/africa/201812201070870077-denmark-video-scandinavian-women-daesh/

where Danish Girls apparently beheaded  ..and the authors of the terror  attack.. scream surprise surprise..
"this is for Syria "...  So this looks like a false flag.. to get the FURY of people ,demanding more military action
of NATO in Syria..  this is coincidentally when Trump orders , his troops to leave.. one of the main argument being told by Pentagon generals for US troops not leaving Syria .. is that "ISIS could return" .

if more terror attacks like this happens.. where Europeans killed by terrorist all over the world... and by "coincidence" ,being told ,their actions are retaliation for US troops deployment in Syria. This will show a clear action/reaction manipulated false flag event ..where people emotions are being played with terrorism in order to get something they want.. (endless wars) .so this attacks ,"in revenge" for US troops in Syria , could be a more clear Sign ,that TRump demands of US troops leaving are real...and Israel and zionist forces in panic over that.. and seeking to tie the hands of Trump for not leaving Syria.

Syrian Army units heading into eastern Aleppo province. Rumor Kurds and the Syrian government have struck a deal in regards to the area west of the Euphrates... again only rumors.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
There will be no complete withdrawal, they may take away a few thousand who are there "officially". But there are more troops then whats admitted to.

This is mostly a saving face move by Trump "I am doing what I promised remember to re-elect me".

Trump may agree to let the turks have some additional land, along their border to make them happy.

Fact is no one knew he was going to say something like that, which shows it was a spilt second decision.

Delegations have met between Assad and kurds many many times and nothing ever happens. I have heard kurd leaders say they will hand over something to Assad it never happens.

Now is it possible we will pull out? Sure but in over 30 years we have never fully removed troops from anywhere. So my statement is based on years of experience and how things work.

Do I personally think we should leave Syria, yes. But I don't see it happening.

first, it would take 30 days, then 60 now 100. Trump also has a habit of saying things and later changing his mind or "clarifying" what he meant. I am going to help you here, the number of troops the pentagon said is "2000" We have more than 2000 men there. It does not take 60 days to move 2000 men. With our Airlift capabilities.

It's only been 2 days since he said that and already it's look like nothing more than a glorified PR move., don't count your chickens before they hatch.

It doesn't really matter, whether that's true or false.

The Kurds feel betrayed and they're scrambling now to organize deals with Assad, Russia and France.

They wouldn't be doing that if it was all smoke and mirrors.
Neither would Mattis and a bunch of others be resigning. It's the real McCoy.

There were reports on the ground from American SF who were saying how heartbreaking it is for them to break the news to their SDF allies.
But that's just part of the job isn't it.

And even if Trump reverses his decision now, trust is broken and the momentum has now decisively begun to shift. The SDF is looking for new sponsors, and more than likely, for someone to broker a deal between them and Damascus. They're not going to sit around and wait for more surprises.

JohninMK wrote:Over the past few weeks Erdogan has moved a lot of gear to launching points along his border plus moving his proxy forces in Afrin into position to strike east. He stated that their purpose was to attack the SDF Kurds who he believed are in cahoots with the Turkish PKK 'terrorists'. There is no reason to doubt that that plan was going to be activated.

Without realizing it Trump could well have saved many US lives and/or egg on face.

The reason is that US forces are at the sharp end and embedded with SDF units and logistics chains. In the event of a Turkish strike the US forces either had to be pulled out, quickly, of they would have had to be protected, mainly by special forces and airstrikes on the attacking Turks which would have led to the first war between NATO countries.

So, either a clear example of the US running and abandoning its allies in the event of real danger or a war against another of its allies. That would really have gone down well in DoD or Pentagon.

Instead we have Trump probably unknowingly pulling a diplomatic masterstoke, getting out of the trap that Obama's move into Syria was inevitably going to be sprung with minimal collateral damage. No, or very few US deaths and sighs of relief from countries around the world. Plus a Christmas present to all those with sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, fathers, mothers, you get the point, who will now be safer.

Now, if he can pull the same trick in Afghanistan he will go down in history quite different from how some would like.

I wouldn't call it a masterstroke.

It was a decision between two possible outcomes. He picked the right one of course, so that's a plus.

But a masterstroke would have been finding a 3rd decision. But I don't think there were any to be had here.

Trump is the style of the cowboy moron, doesn't look like the guy who is peaceful and eloquent. Actually, he does increase USA military expenditure through the roof and kept supporting Saudis proxy wars and Ukraine heretics and even provokes North Korea and China, both possessing ground forces superior to his own. They were forced to painful decisions due to the tactical situation, now they scapegoating with Trump's agenda etc. I call bullshit.

Assad has said no self-governing it's either they come back under his rules and his control fully or else.

He has had this position for months, I do not know why no one has mentioned this already.

Maybe when things where fresh and he was on the fence he would have agreed to it but not now.

He has the ball in his court, in his eyes he has no reason to surrender to them in that way.

IF and remember this word IF we really do pull out.

It's either they go under control of the Ero or Assad and well if they where smart they pick Assad.

He is the lesser of two evils for them by far.

Massive Turkish army convoy sent to #Şanlıurfa along #Syria border line for the upcoming operation.

https://twitter.com/metesohtaoglu/status/1076618545075798017

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Assad has said no self-governing it's either they come back under his rules and his control fully or else.

He has had this position for months, I do not know why no one has mentioned this already.

Maybe when things where fresh and he was on the fence he would have agreed to it but not now.

He has the ball in his court, in his eyes he has no reason to surrender to them in that way.

IF and remember this word IF we really do pull out.

It's either they go under control of the Ero or Assad and well if they where smart they pick Assad.

He is the lesser of two evils for them by far.

Which is hilarious because the Assad family has been protecting/harboring the Kurds (from Turkey, circa pre-2011) for years, only for the cheese Kurds to stab them in the back at their first chance. I wouldn't be shocked if they have more-or-less roughly the same amount of autonomy then before the war, and I also wouldn't be shocked if they had significantly less either.