Turkey's relations with neighbouring countries

Turkey-Iran rapprochement and possible consequences

Iran’s chief of general staff, Major General Mohammad Hossein Bageri, became the first Iranian top soldier since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to visit Turkey on Aug. 15. Bageri held talks with his Turkish counterpart General Hulusi Akar, but not only with Akar. Accompanied by intelligence officers, Bageri was also received by President Tayyip Erdoğan and met with other top government figures including Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli.

The visit comes at a very interesting time, with the Turkish government experiencing a number of problems with its Western allies.

While Bageri was still in Ankara, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Aug. 16 that she would not pursue the planned upgrade of the Customs Union deal between Turkey and the European Union due to the current political situation. She was referring to the widespread arrests, especially of journalists, politicians and intellectuals, as well as other problems regarding rights and freedoms under the state of emergency declared after the foiled July 2016 military coup.

British Minister of State Alan Duncan, who was the first Western politician to visit Ankara the day after the coup attempt to show his government’s solidarity, met top government officials in Ankara on Aug. 17 to give the message that it was time for the Turkish government to give a positive signal to the West. He said that not extending the state of emergency any longer could help that.

Meanwhile, concluding his contacts in Ankara, Iranian Chief of Staff Bageri said Ankara and Tehran had agreed on sharing intelligence and “cooperating operationally” in the fight against terrorism.

So while it is complaining about the lack of sufficient cooperation against terrorism from its number one NATO partner the U.S., the Turkish government seems to have found a partner in Iran. This comes at a time when the U.S. has announced new sanctions against Tehran amid Iranian threats that it could end the nuclear deal struck in 2015.

Turkey is upset that the U.S.’s choice of ground force against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria is the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the militia of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is the Syrian extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

In the Syrian theater, Iran and Turkey are on opposite sides, as Tehran strongly backs the Bashar al-Assad regime. But they have been working closely together with Russia in the Astana process to maintain a ceasefire, and Ankara and Tehran also have an enemy in common: The PKK. The outlawed Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) is the Iranian branch of the PKK and it is active along the Iraqi and Turkish borders. The fact that the PKK has cooperated with the U.S. in Syria (and in Iraq) has further antagonized Tehran’s view of the PJAK/PKK.

The expression of “operational cooperation” could mean Turkey and Iran cooperating in military or intelligence operations against the PKK’s presence in Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq, at a time when Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leader Masoud Barzani has declared a referendum on Sept. 24 on independence from Iraq.

It is not only Turkey and Iran that oppose the idea of the KRG referendum; also Germany, the U.S., the U.K. and other Western governments have voice their opposition. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu warned on Aug. 16 that the vote could drag Iraq into a civil war, and Barzani reportedly hinted on Aug. 17 that he could “postpone” the referendum if certain conditions are met, such as the completion of payment of oil revenue by Baghdad and the granting of promised government positions for the Kurds.

Another joint Ankara-Tehran initiative could also emerge in Syria, if both Turkey and Iran press more to prevent the PYD/PKK from having a role in the city administration of Raqqa once it is taken from ISIL.
Will this rapprochement between Ankara and Tehran have a negative effect on Turkey’s already rocky relations with the West?

It may be too early to comment right now. Perhaps it will be easier once we see the outcome of U.S. Secretary of Defence James Mattis’ upcoming visit to Ankara.

Turkey-Iran rapprochement and possible consequences

Azerbaijani, Iranian, Turkish FMs to meet in Baku

19 September 2017 09:06 (UTC+04:00)

Baku will host a meeting of foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey, Iranian Ambassador in Azerbaijan Javad Jahangirzadeh told Trend.

The envoy did not specify the exact date of the meeting.

Holding such trilateral meetings is very important in terms of international and regional cooperation.

https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/2798013.html

Turkish top general visits Iran

Erdogan is going to give Assad the Syrian opposition, by Evgeniy Pozdnyakov for VZGLYAD. 08.29.2024.

Experts assess the prospects for normalizing relations between Türkiye and Syria.

Turkey and Syria's reconciliation faces a new challenge. Ankara has set Damascus four conditions for normalizing relations, one of which is amending the constitution. The situation is further complicated by recent anti-Syrian protests in Turkey. Will the countries be able to find a path to peace, and why is Russia interested in this?

Turkey has put forward four conditions for normalizing relations with Syria. First, Ankara demands that Damascus completely destroy terrorist groups. Second, the government of Bashar al-Assad must carry out constitutional reforms in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution, CNN Turk reports .

Thirdly, the Syrian leadership needs to ensure the safe return of refugees to their homeland. Turkey's final demand is to organize uninterrupted deliveries of humanitarian aid to opposition-controlled areas. At the same time, the TV channel's report expresses doubt that Syria will be able to fulfill such proposals.

Meanwhile, attempts to settle the dialogue between Ankara and Damascus continue. On Sunday, Bashar al-Assad, speaking before the new convocation of the People's Council, said that Russia, Iraq and Iran are putting forward an initiative to reconcile the two states. However, real progress on this issue is not yet visible.

Assad also noted the incorrectness of Turkey's statements that Damascus is not ready for negotiations until Ankara withdraws its troops from the country's northern territories. The head of Syria clarified that the basis of any peace proposal should remain the sovereignty of the state, but he allowed for the possibility of a meeting with Recep Erdogan on the territory of a third state.

Recall that after the civil war in Syria began in 2011, the country's relations with Turkey deteriorated significantly, as Ankara supported the opponents of the official government. But this summer, a warming of the dialogue between the countries was noted. Meeting in June with Alexander Lavrentyev, the special representative of the Russian president for the Syrian settlement, Assad spoke positively about the possibilities of reconciliation with Turkey.

At the same time, Erdogan stated that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was defining a plan to normalize the dialogue between the two countries. It is noteworthy that in July, the Daily Sabah newspaper reported on the possibility of holding talks between Ankara and Damascus in Russia. It was emphasized that Vladimir Putin could act as a mediator in the meeting.

Later, the trend towards peace was disrupted by the July anti-migrant protests in the city of Kayseri. The cause of discontent was a video in which a Syrian refugee raped a local five-year-old child, TASS recalls . The demonstrators demanded the resignation of Erdogan, who had "sheltered" between 3 million and 4 million people from the neighboring state.

"Turkey and Syria are entangled in a tangle of accumulated contradictions. The countries want to establish contacts. However, they have radically different approaches to achieving this goal. Assad insists on the complete withdrawal of Turkish troops from the northern territories. This is a fundamental requirement, after the fulfillment of which we can begin to discuss future rules of coexistence," says orientalist Kirill Semenov.

"Recep Erdogan, on the contrary, proposes to first of all agree on a safe and peaceful future for members of the opposition living in the regions controlled by Turkey. If Ankara withdraws its forces from here right now, the region will face a humanitarian catastrophe," he explains.

“Therefore, to get out of the situation, certain changes are required within Syria.

According to Turkey, Damascus must acquire a new constitution that guarantees the protection of the opposition and its participation in the future life of the state. Without this, a police operation by Bashar al-Assad will begin in Idlib," the expert emphasizes.

"In this scenario, new waves of refugees will rush to Turkey, which, given current events, will significantly complicate the dialogue between Ankara and Damascus. Therefore, the conditions put forward by Erdogan are quite reasonable. The state of affairs has long since turned into a huge lump of contradictions, which can only be resolved by comprehensive measures," the interlocutor emphasizes.

"On the other hand, the situation in northern Syria is extremely difficult even for Turkey. Thoughtless actions can worsen the situation. However, hopes for mutual understanding between the parties remain. Erdogan and Assad are aware of the danger emanating from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* (recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation)," he is convinced.

"I do not rule out that sooner or later Damascus and Ankara will be able to agree on a joint operation against this group. In the future, this will provide a basis for negotiations on achieving the security of Syrians living in this region. Russia is interested in reconciliation of states," the expert notes.

“It is in Moscow’s interests to ensure that relations between Turkey and Syria improve.

The contradictions between them complicate our work in the region. If the contradictions were translated into the plane of mutual concessions between Turkey and Syria, this would relieve significant tension and increase regional stability in the interests of Russia,” Semenov adds.

However, the chances for a peaceful settlement are still slim, says Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. "In principle, Turkey has been happy with the current situation for many years. Now, Ankara is being pushed to negotiate by domestic political instability," he explains.

"Unrest has broken out in the country against Syrian refugees. Accordingly, Erdogan needs to solve the unexpected problem. The Turkish leadership is sending signals to the Syrian opposition that it intends to maintain support for this political group, while demanding greater loyalty from them," the source is convinced.

“That is, Ankara’s task in this case is to calm the unrest on its territory, call on refugees to behave more adequately. If you look at the demands put forward by Turkey, they are not much different from their previous proposals. That is, there is no talk of a compromise this time either,” the expert reasons.

"We are seeing an interesting situation: both countries are not against restoring ties. To some extent, this would be beneficial to everyone. But their approaches to achieving peace are radically opposed. It will not be easy to achieve a revision of their current positions," he adds.

"Thus, one should not expect any cardinal changes in the current situation in the near future. However, Russia will continue its efforts aimed at reconciling Turkey and Syria. For Moscow, normalization of their relations would seem extremely advantageous. This would open the way for the implementation of new forms of partnership with both countries," Tkachenko concluded.

* The organization (organizations) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation.

https://vz.ru/world/2024/8/28/1284339.html