Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues
Isos wrote:eehnie wrote:George1 wrote:Ok then, since there is no agreement let the administrator take the decision. I would like Vlad's opinion
But let me ask you, why u insist in the poll on a general topic for syrian civil war and you dont prefer it separate where views on the subject can be posted?
After all since we lock all the topics that reach 990 answers, if i was online earlier i could have started the new one for syrian civil war and then you wouldnt be able to make a poll on this, you should create a new topic-subject-poll
I do not insist. I comented that I dissagree about other people pressuring successfully to modify my comment here, when it was not breaking any rule.
As commented, I care about my comments on some issues, and I do not see myself as the author of the combination proposed of comment+poll+new topic. This is the reason why asked my comment to be deleted in the new topic.
We don't care. Stop spoiling the forum like a child.
Kimppis wrote:Anatoly Karlin's very pessimistic assessment:
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-partition-of-syria/
It's very rare that I and even most (?) other commentators seem to disagree with him.
Basically the argument seems to be that Russia-Iran-SAA have not actually won anything and the US has the upper hand in the region. The US military might hit Russian bases at any time.
https://twitter.com/Acemal71/status/963421396947914755More Turkish tanks are going to #Afrin including M60T Firat tanks (they have Fırat(Euphrates) modernization) and tank recovery vehicles.
#OperationOliveBranch
PapaDragon wrote:Kimppis wrote:Anatoly Karlin's very pessimistic assessment:
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/the-partition-of-syria/
It's very rare that I and even most (?) other commentators seem to disagree with him.
Basically the argument seems to be that Russia-Iran-SAA have not actually won anything and the US has the upper hand in the region. The US military might hit Russian bases at any time.
USA can hit any Russian any base anywhere at any time, same goes for US bases being hit by Russia anywhere at any time. Has been that way for decades. You can add China into that mix.
But there is a reason why none of it happened in over half a century and it won't.
Author may be concerned about partition of Syria but that is Syrian issue. Russian interests are on the coastline and are secured and no longer dependent on Syrian territorial integrity.
Latter part is Syrian and Iranian problem first and foremost, not Russian.
calm wrote:One of the biggest battles of Syrian war is about to start. Elite Tiger Force march on Damascus, next mission clear the Eastern Ghouta of illegal armed formation.
https://muraselon.com/en/2018/02/exclusive-syrian-elite-forces-damascus-new-mission/
crod wrote:“Author may be concerned about partition of Syria but that is Syrian issue. Russian interests are on the coastline and are secured and no longer dependent on Syrian territorial integrity.”
Russian interests will turn to shit if Syria is broken up, surely you see that right? Russia won’t have shit of the coastline as the political landscape will be changed forever in Syria and the Russians will be kicked out; one of the main reasons the Americans are planning such an outcome (splitting the country up) - to reduce Russian influence within their sphere of the ME. Russia will leave and won’t fight America over it, we all know that to be true just like America won’t take on Russia over Crimea/Ukraine.
The status quo will not remain post conflict, people on here are far underestimating the US here, they will do as they will....as always.
They had no problem killing hundreds of Russian mercenaries (if the reports in European papers today are true) last week in that attack.
Or perhaps the Americans will leave just like in Iraq with no real outcomes achieved but I am not so sure tbh as they stakes are higher because of 1) The Golan and protecting Israeli interests and 2) Russian and Iranian influence in the region.
Anyway we can park this for a few years and see what happens post conflict.
But I am convinced if Bashar is gone, the Russians are out.
ATLASCUB wrote:..........South Korea is not a problem? ............
crod wrote:..............Russian interests will turn to shit if Syria is broken up, surely you see that right? ...
crod wrote:..............Russia won’t have shit of the coastline as the political landscape will be changed forever in Syria.....
crod wrote:..............and the Russians will be kicked out....
crod wrote:.............. Russia will leave and won’t fight America over it, we all know that to be true just like America won’t take on Russia over Crimea/Ukraine......
crod wrote:..............The status quo will not remain post conflict, people on here are far underestimating the US here, they will do as they will....as always....
crod wrote:..............They had no problem killing hundreds of Russian mercenaries (if the reports in European papers today are true) last week in that attack....
crod wrote:......stakes are higher because of 1) The Golan and protecting Israeli interests and 2) Russian and Iranian influence in the region......
crod wrote:..............But I am convinced if Bashar is gone, the Russians are out.
PapaDragon wrote:ATLASCUB wrote:..........South Korea is not a problem? ............
Yes, it's a massive problem...for China.
Not for Russia.crod wrote:..............Russian interests will turn to shit if Syria is broken up, surely you see that right? ...
Syrian yes, Iranian yes, Russian definitely not.
Don't conflate Iranian interests with Russian ones. Hezbollah learns that painful lesson daily.crod wrote:..............Russia won’t have shit of the coastline as the political landscape will be changed forever in Syria.....
Russia has coastline in the bag and is more likely to keep it after 50-75 year period expires if they skip dealing with middleman and just deal with very grateful locals.
People's Republic of Latakia, has nice ring to it, eh?crod wrote:..............and the Russians will be kicked out....
Oh really? Do tell how since I didn't have a good laugh in several hours.crod wrote:.............. Russia will leave and won’t fight America over it, we all know that to be true just like America won’t take on Russia over Crimea/Ukraine......
If deal is to give Syria in exchange for Ukraine Russia will rubber-stamp it ASAP and laugh all the way to geopolitical bank.crod wrote:..............The status quo will not remain post conflict, people on here are far underestimating the US here, they will do as they will....as always....
Ad that is uniquely Iranian problem. They dragged their feet and wasted years trying to get into Golan and now they have Uncle Sam next door. Congrats!
Also, with USA fondling Kurds you have Turkey being way more cooperative towards Russia than otherwise and on issues way more important than some desert wasteland. Another in the bag.crod wrote:..............They had no problem killing hundreds of Russian mercenaries (if the reports in European papers today are true) last week in that attack....
Oh, it's already ''hundreds''? Oh my how those numbers grow when retelling the story. I am sure it will be ''thousands'' by weekend.
You do realize that mercenaries are expendable? That is sole reason why they get paid big bucks.crod wrote:......stakes are higher because of 1) The Golan and protecting Israeli interests and 2) Russian and Iranian influence in the region......
Again, you are conflating Russian and Iranian interests. Russia covered theirs and they end at Euphrates (probably even before Euphrates but it's a nice natural barrier)
Iran OTOH is stumbling like a moron after completely dropping the ball. But that's their problem.crod wrote:..............But I am convinced if Bashar is gone, the Russians are out.
Since when are we on first name basis with that guy?
Russians have been making it very clear since 2011 that they will drop him like hot potato under right conditions. So I doubt that they don't have double digit number of replacements lined up.
PapaDragon wrote:big bucks.
PARIS, February 14th. / TASS /. France is ready to immediately launch a military strike against Syria if evidence is provided of the use by the Syrian army of chemical weapons against the civilian population. This was announced on Tuesday by the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron, handed over to Agence France-Presse .
"We will strike at the place where it would have been committed, or where it would have been organized." The Red Line will be observed, "he said, responding to a meeting with journalists of the presidential pool about the possible response of France to use in Syria chemical weapons.
Not only S-200 and Buk anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) but also SAM systems Pantsir-S were involved in repelling recent Israeli raids on targets in Syria. The main objectives of the systems of Soviet and Russian production were the newest cruise missiles. According to experts, during the recent battles of the air defense of the Arab Republic has demonstrated the ability to repel massive attacks and cope with very complex targets.
As Izvestiya was told by a source in the Syrian General Staff, on February 10, the air defense forces of the country had to repel a massive attack using air-launched cruise missiles. The main targets of the Syrian antiaircraft guns were not aircraft, but air-to-surface missiles launched outside the country's airspace. This information was confirmed to representatives of the Russian military department and the military-industrial complex.
"As a result of the first raid, eight of the 11 Israeli missiles were destroyed, and in the second attack of seven missiles - five," the Syrian officer explained. - The only airplane that entered the airspace of the country was shot down by our anti-aircraft missile system.
The interlocutor of "Izvestia", however, refused to specify exactly how the SAM was hit by the multipurpose F-16I Sufa fighter that fell on the territory of Israel. He also did not confirm or deny the information that it was a S-200 SAM, but noted that during the raid on February 10, all Syrian calculations operated independently. According to the officer, this would not have been achieved without the assistance of Russian specialists who restored the technical readiness of the S-125, S-200 and Buk anti-aircraft missile systems, and also re-trained the Syrian military.
The February 10 incident was not the first in the last few days. This was reported to Izvestiya by a source in the General Staff of Syria, information was confirmed by interlocutors in the Russian military department.
- On February 7, the Israeli Air Force aircraft violated Syria's state border and launched eight air-to-surface missiles at the building of the National Science Center in the city of Salamia, in the province of Ham, "the Izvestia source said. - Then the missiles were destroyed by the "Pantsir-S", S-200 and "Buk" complexes. The remaining two fell in the area of the National Science Center, without causing significant damage.
According to Israeli Defense Ministry officials, the situation worsened after around four o'clock in the morning on Saturday, February 10, the Israeli military spotted an Iranian drone flying from Jordan. The reconnaissance UAV was intercepted by the attack helicopter Apache. The Israeli Air Force launched an air raid to destroy the station for controlling the drone. She was in the depths of Syria in the desert - not far from the city of Palmyra.
During the raid the Syrian air defense forces resisted stubbornly. One of the Israeli F-16I Sufa was shot down by an anti-aircraft missile (presumably, the S-200 complex), but the pilot and the weapon operator had time to catapult. One of the crew was seriously injured. This was the first since 2006, the case of the destruction of the Israeli aircraft with enemy fire.
As former Lieutenant-General Alexander Gorkov, commander of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Russian Federation, told Izvestiya that the air defense of the Arab Republic showed high efficiency in repelling the attacks on February 7 and 10.
- Israel used to strike cruise missiles. These are very complex goals, performing a flight at a low altitude, "the expert said. - To intercept them, not only prepared calculations are required, but also centralized, as well as a high level of management. Of the 26 targets, it was intercepted 19. It turns out that the Syrian air defense demonstrated an efficiency close to 0.8. And this is a very high figure.
All in all, Syria's air defense forces have eight divisions of S-200 SAM systems, supplied from the USSR, and about 20 Buk complexes of various modifications. The last major batch of eight "Bukov" versions of M2E was transferred to Damascus in 2011. "Buk" air defense system allows to hit air targets at a range from 3 to 45 km and at altitudes from 15 m to 25 km.
In addition, in 2013-2015, Russia supplied Damascus with more than three dozen "Pantsir" missile systems, including the latest modification of the missile system. The missile weaponry of the complex fires air targets at ranges up to 20 km and at altitudes up to 15 km. Cannon - hits planes flying at extremely low altitudes, helicopters suddenly appearing because of shelters in the near zone, as well as drones and even ground targets.
As for the F-16I Sufa ("storm" - in Hebrew), one of which was shot down on February 10, they began to flow into the Israeli Air Force in the mid-2000s. The main objective of these two-seat multipurpose aircraft is to strike at well-defended targets in the depths of the enemy's territory in the face of strong anti-aircraft countermeasures. In the arsenal of these machines - Israeli cruise missiles "Delilah", able to barrage in a given area and hit not only static but also moving targets.
Isos wrote:So the capacities of even old systems can be very good if well operated by a competant crew against modern fighters.
Weired that russians who don't use s-200 since long ago have to train an army that use it every day.
Not surprising that Syrian lose in air engagements against israel ...
But what would it be if S-400 operated by russian start shooting down f16 and f15 ?? They would score 1 kill for every missile hahaha
crod wrote:As I said it was reported by media outlets...couldn’t care nor give 2 shits about Russians being killed tbh, not my concern, I’m not Russian; soldier or mercenary you get paid to be there. Just like I don’t give 2 shits about Iranians etc.
Your little republic dream....well that has me lmao, nice one buddy.
We’ll just have to wait and see how it turns out...but my money is on the Yankees getting what they want with the Russians playing second fiddle.
miketheterrible wrote:https://scotthumor.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/wagner-private-military-company-could-be-a-code-name-for-israels-black-op/
People who still believe in the dead Russians bullshit needs to read this article. Actually, everyone should.
It goes through a whole amount about how Wagner group is bullshit and who possibly is behind it.
crod wrote:As I said it was reported by media outlets...couldn’t care nor give 2 shits about Russians being killed tbh, not my concern, I’m not Russian; soldier or mercenary you get paid to be there. Just like I don’t give 2 shits about Iranians etc.
Your little republic dream....well that has me lmao, nice one buddy.
We’ll just have to wait and see how it turns out...but my money is on the Yankees getting what they want with the Russians playing second fiddle.
We call on the United Nations to investigate the actions and practices of the United States, which threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Syria and aim to liquidate the Syrian people, contradicting the objectives and principles of the UN. The Army will down any jet that launches an assault on Syria and that is not a mere threat… we are able to get rid of terrorists when the West stops supporting them,” Mikdad said.
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