Syrian War: News #17

LMFS wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

LMFS wrote:.........
Apparently it needed reload, if they didn't have a shelter I don't know what they could do... saturation of the AD is always a possibility and such an intense attack was not really expected...

If such intense attack was not expected then why did it need reload?

And why was it's radar deactivated and lowered if it was not offline?

I do not know exactly what happened, just read the Pantsir was apparently hit due to having no more missiles and rounds to fire. So, what follows is speculation. But I prefer to presume non-stupidity from anybody as a principle...

> It needed reload precisely because the attack was more intense than expected, I don't follow the logic of your question.
> If no immediate reload was possible I would assume the best would be to shut off any emission... what would make sense for you?

yes,... it is confirmed..  there are images of the after math of the attack..
1)no missiles
2)radars were folded
3) and the car was not anchored.. so they were preparing to move the Pantsir to get more missiles..

here is the video..
that shows the Pantsir was not operational when the drone arrive for a strike..

https://twitter.com/WaelAlRussi/status/995012862853767169


This suggest.. that either it was a lucky shot of the drone.. of being in the right moment at right time..
or that there was spies or spotters near the base , monitoring when the Pantsir used all its missiles and was
about to be refilled. The damages on the Pantsir appears to be light.. and that it could be repaired ,looks like it was a small explosive charge that hit the cabin of the truck.. enough to kill a man.. but not enough to completely neutralize
the pantsir..and could be operational in a few days.. if they have a repair station and replacement parts.. The S-200s
radars have been hit too.. according to wael. it happens at times.. but they can repair it in 2-3 days.  

If such intense attack was not expected then why did it need reload?

And why was it's radar deactivated and lowered if it was not offline?

The pantsir used all its missiles intercepting bombs..... and was about to get more..
It was in non combat position ,ready to drive the Pantsir to the reloading point... but a couple of minutes
perhaps they rested was the moment it was hit.. so there was no way to counter it.. only have another pantsir
as backup to cover each other ,when one needs reloading will have saved it Or Electronic warfare which clearly
they did not had.. that could had blind the TV camera signal to the operator.. Since radars are off.. the missile will
see nothing.. in automatic anti radiation mode.. and in manual mode the operator see nothing but no TV signal.

This still shows Poor Planning of Russia.. mediocre planning.. you can't fix this short comings in syria security
with training . Only firing Russian generals for providing an incomplete system of defense.. Syrian army have nothing
to defend themselves ,when fire all their missiles.. Any cheap electronic jamming system.. of low range coverage..
will have saved the operator from the drone..  Better training or discipline will have not helped.. the drone can chase
moving targets.. So I stand corrected.. Poor Planning of Russia military , on syrian defenses made it possible for the operator being killed..since they have NOTHING to protect them ,when use all their missiles and gatlin gun empty... Any cheap EW used at the right time ,when Pantsirs needs reloading will have neutralized that drone easily.

Militarov wrote:

Doesn't look destroyed. Maybe the radar got some burns because of the fire but they may have save the pantsir.

LMFS wrote:
BTW, the S-200s in Syria can be kept on the move by train? From what I have seen they seemed rather fixed emplacements. Here the S-300 would be a massive improvement also, and its radar could perfectly integrate with existing S-200 sites since they can pass coordinates to the 5N62.

Based on Syrian Army own reports ,that can shot down combat planes deep in the mediterranean sea..
Russia can easily provide Syria the S-200D "Dubna"  with 400km range..  
Remember that S-300 range is 250km to 300km..  So S-200 range can be way higher than S-300 system..
as much as S-400s.

and Yes Syria have their S-200 Launchers fully mobile..100% confirmed.. Ruptly released a video of them..the launchers are on rails..so that will be very tough to hit..specially more because don't emit radar signals or heat emissions.  they have the launchers on train like rails.. around some military
bases. very clever. the only thing not mobile is their S-200 radars. Which have been hit many times..
the good thing however is that the radars can be repaired in 2 days..according to wael.. even if hit by a missile..  
But the bad thing is Russia don't produce anymore S-200s and the parts are not very abundant in supply.
S-200 major disadvantage is that it doesn't do turns quickly in a chase..is not a very aerodynamic missile apparenly
..so good pilots could outmaneuver its missiles most times.. but not always. at the expense of having to drop all their missiles ,in the sea ,that were intended to target Syria. for greater maneuverability. Still S-200s can do the job.. and according to wael about 5x  F-16 /F-15s combat planes have been shot down by Syria in 2 years but israel only recognize 1 ,the ones that they can't hide.. but the ones who fall in the sea.. they don't report. So they can do the job.. but you need A-50s flying or Russian navy providing intelligence of Israel jets positions to increase its performance.

So S-200s and S-300s ,S-400s alone dont work.. it needs a large network of things and tools connected helping with
real time information of enemy planes. and also need a strong local AD rings and layers of defense too around them.. for proper protections ..because they will always be #1 target in any air strike against Syria. So Far Pantsir reability
have proven to be very high.. only 1 Pantsir Hit after 70 missile strikes in one day  is a major breakthrough achievement.. and there will be none hit..  had the system of reloading had another Pantsir or Electronic warfare backup. So even though Israel claimed victory with the Pantsir video.. in reality ,they have to be very worried..
they wasted hundred of millions firing 70 missiles ,with 30 combat planes and only managed to hit 1 pantsir by luck..
and 2 radars of S-200s..  If there was a rating..for Israel performance..it will be from 1 to 100.. a 40 points score.
that is deficient performance.. so this is what now they need to be worried about. They by now know ..that their
chance to neutralize Syrian air defenses is zero.. 30 combat modernized jets and 70 missiles later ,Syria lost one pantsir and two radars that Russia can quickly repair or if need to replace. Pantsirs are the real heroes of the battlefield
they have proven how effective mobile defenses are.. specially when can operate using passive radars.. but active too.
IF Russia byte the bullet on its budget and provide ,40 more pantsirs with 1 TOR system per base mixed with Electronic warfare in  Syria ,it could increase the interception performance to 98%. S-200 and S-300s and S-400s is more about to switch from defense to offense and take the fight back to the aggressor.

The poor performance of ISrael airforce , in defeating a meaningful number of Defense sites after so big Operation of 30 combat planes and 70 missile strikes.. for sure will make US and Israel to rethink their strategy .and will not be surprising..if they push from now on.. to restart the terrorist ground offensive for more boots on the ground
operations.. watch the east of Syrian desert..the US military base they will try to expanded its buffer zone.. under "self defense claims" ,they will try to advance from Jordan. with ISIS like forces help in the lead..and try to advance and take more desert territory. .to get closer to Syria military bases withing artillery range.. also will try to restart the southern front. terrorist ground offensives too with Israel airforce backup. to try help their rebels terrorist in South Syria borders ,to get closer to damascus.. this is my prediction..  Reducing the territory that syria control is key for significantly reducing Syrian capabilities for defending its airspace.. since they can't deploy any AD system or Pantsir ,near a terrorist  controlled zone for fear being hit by constant artillery shelling .

Isos wrote:

Doesn't look destroyed. Maybe the radar got some burns because of the fire but they may have save the pantsir.

Well there is no CnC cabin at all, like it was chopped away. Probably costs like half of new unit to refubrish this one.

^Interesting, I expected that there'd be nothing but some charred scrap metal and melted rubber.

A Russian specialist expert version.. confirms. Wael Version..

'It was either disable or out of ammo': how Israelis hit the Syrian SA-22 air defense system

https://www.rt.com/news/426520-syria-israel-pantsir-russia/



Apparently they say it could be a SPike Missile.. So such attack could only happen from the US base illegal
base in eastern Syrian desert near the jordanian border. or maybe it was from Kurds controlled zone
were the attack came..

KiloGolf wrote:

par far wrote:You and the ones like you on this forum are driven by your anti Iranian feelings(it does not really matter because you are on a forum and don’t on the ground in Syria.)

No anti-Iranian feelings whatsover, I've got plenty of Persian friends. Used to date one a while back too.
I am driven by anti-'geopolitical stupidity' feelings.

What "anti geopolitical stupidity feelings", do you exactly have?

Most the attacks that Israel does on Syria, are on false pretexts, they want to help out their terrorists friends in Syria. And the geopolitical stupidity that you talk about, Iran has no choice but to do it, the Jews want to cause problems for Iran through their proxies. Why did Israel support terrorists in Syria? They want to do the same thing in Iran.

PapaDragon wrote:

par far wrote:............
It was Iran that went to Russia for help, it is not in Iran’s interests to be causing problems in Syria because they know what is at stake. ..........

Then they should stop being stupid and move their asses up north where the action is. Golan (or whatever other bullshit is down there) can wait couple of years.

I don't know what kind of sexual satisfaction being the Israeli chew-toy provides them with but it's very counterproductive.

How do you know that they are not up north?

The Jews in Israel, along with their vassals drew up plans long ago to do the same thing, they doing in Syria to Iran, they don't get any "sexual satisfaction", they are trying to protect their country.

Just because Israel said that it was Iranian backed forces that attacked the, does not mean it is true, the Jews are lying, in order to attack Syria.

PapaDragon wrote:
What did I say about Iran dragging their feet? And about Russia wanting a coastline and not giving a shit about wastelands in the East? And about USA wanting a foothold for moving into Iran? And about Kurds being complete morons?

https://mobile.twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/995083149695733760

That article calls the Syrian government "mafias", what does that make Israel, the US and Thier bitches?

Militarov wrote:

Isos wrote:

Doesn't look destroyed. Maybe the radar got some burns because of the fire but they may have save the pantsir.

Well there is no CnC cabin at all, like it was chopped away. Probably costs like half of new unit to refubrish this one.

They can just bring a new cabine and maybe a new truck. But the turret looks ok.

Well , it looks like the Russian airforce is managing to keep the Yank and Usraeli planes out of Syrian airspace ( west region ) . This means no B52 carpet bombing or one or two thousand pound bombs from F18 . The net result is that the charges have to be flown from further stand off range . Under own power . And subsequently have to carry smaller and smaller payload .

This seems to have weakened their attack . CW missiles with bigger warhead weight had to be replaced by smaller SDB . And usraeli TV guided ATGM , launched by F16 , had to be replaced by drones or smaller missiles . So overall there is success on the part of Syria . And a defence can be built around up armouring the AD units . To withstand attacks . And making use of bunkers for storage .

I think the reason for not supplying S300 , is not technical . But political . No country , including Russia wants a direct confrontation with other major powers . So the Russians choose to chase away Usraeli jets by own jets . Rather than shoot them down en mass by s300 salvo . What do you think will happen , if thirty usraeli pilots were killed in a single action ? The Russians did not even engage the Turks in the air by a shoot down , after own pilot was killed . Or when SAA Troops and volunteers were killed by yank air attack , when crossing river .

However this " super power " partition of Syria , I believe is temporary and will not last . For the reason that such partition will pose an existential threat to stability and territorial integrity of neighbouring states . And it will only be a matter of time , before international borders are reinstated .

The latest evolution of Syria conflict is the first sample of what correctly foreseen by Federation analysts some decades ago : Air Forces, for the effect of the advancement in sophistication of Air Defense systems (the pace of which is always higher than tecnological advancement and innovation in aircraft construction) will progressively lose their capability to conduct the classical penetrative air to ground missions becoming, more and more often, mere delivery platform for stand-off ammunitions.

Obviously this trend produce an unavoidable reduction of the potential of air to ground attacks of several times and this potential continue to be reduced exponentially at the growing of the range of engagement of enemy medium and long range air defense (because entire class of air to ground ammunitions ,the most light-weight and low cost and therefore transportable in higher amount, pass from "stand-off" to "stand-in" weapons) and at the growing of potential of EW assets.


Syria in the last 5 years represent an almost unique and contemporaneously uniquely difficult scenario because:


1) The capital and the majority of the key national assets are all concentrated in the western sector at only few km from national territory occupied by a major enemy and from the "porous" Lebanon air space

2) Morphological structure of this same western sector is characterized by major "masking" elements capitalizable by any stand-off air-to-ground attack coming from Lebanon air space (the main reason behind the violation of this air space by part of IAF on a daily basis )

3) In the the syrian territory is present and well rooted the presence of an extensive israeli HUMINT network capable to provide very important and time-sensitive informations ,uncollectable by any other mean (air or space based)directly from the ground.

4) Presence of a foreign-backed terrorists and the multi-year war prevent syrian ground forces to represent an heavy risk and exert the fundamental deterrence pressure on this neighbouring enemy and to all its assets placed in the proximity of western sector.

5) Last but not least, Israel owning of nuclear weapons always prevented in all those decades its enemies in the region to even only plan an organic offensive operations aimed a the destruction of its few ,close and scarcely defendeable air bases around which the entire israeli defense and ultimately existence, gravitate.

In spite of all that we can observe that:

1) IAF ,since at least two years ,has been forced to attack exclusively with stand-off munitions (stand-off in respect to the air defense systems available to Syria obviously)

2) A very high number of those subsonic stand-off weapons (around 60% overall) are intercepted by the bulk of export modernized Soviet AD systems and the few batteries of export more modern SAM.

3) The few more modern export batteries (particularly Панцирь-С1 ) have achieved both against US/UK/France cruise missiles than against Israeli ammunitions single interceptor PK even higher than what computed at the acceptance shooting range (more than 90%) and practically complete neutralization of those stand-off air attacks in their area of coverage. Almost the totality of the air to ground munitions "slipping through" defense transitate in the area not covered by batteries of Панцирь-С1 and Бук

4) Cost and time of manufacturing of single interceptor against that of those complex stand-off missiles is immensiely lower (for the Панцирь-С1 ones it reach several dozen....) therefore for a close range layer of IAD ,even discounting all other EW ,masking and interceptor elements, composed exclusively by relatively more up-to-date point-defence SAM systems you could effectlively completely neutralize that kind of air attack forcing enemy at a cost and time of manufacturing exchange totally unsustainable for it.


Now the questions about the Панцирь-С1 vehicle hit

- In mine opinion the video is authenticate and come from missile on-board optronic suit

- The Панцирь-С1 was clearly not in working state ,tube position and motionless of target acquisistion radar reveal that without any doubt

- In mine opinion the system was neither without ammunitions neither preparing itself for any reloading operation,

- The system was unmanned (the crew of the vehicle are the 3 people to the left with the fourth likely a maintenance operator)

- The weapon used to hit that vehicle, by the homing optronic camera, is a Deliah-GL not a NLOS Spike.


The most likely exaplanation to the event is that the air attack alarm at the base had been interrupted since at least some dozen of minutes because no aircraft contact was present over Lebanon, Mediterranean sea and occupied territory therefore air defense crew was (very unprofessionally....) relaxing themselves in proximity of their vehicle so to mount on theirs vehicle in the event that an early warning alarm would sound again for the detection of new Isralei aircraft in the western sector.

What them had not taken in consideration is that their position was well within reach of ground launched missiles with loitering and OTH visual identification reatergeting and likely the Israelis had hoped just for this kind of shallowness and surprise element in delivering the dozen of ground launched missiles; simple like that .

Air Forces, for the effect of the advancement in sophistication of Air Defense systems (the pace of which is always higher than tecnological advancement and innovation in aircraft construction) will progressively lose their capability to conduct the classical penetrative air to ground missions becoming, more and more often, mere delivery platform for stand-off ammunitions.

Air forces are dead. Even the richest countries can't buy lot of planes. They have become too much costly.Stand off weapons are expensive. Just look the french operation to lunch 9 missiles they needed all their tankers and 1/10 of their rafales fleets plus 4 mirages while rafale is supposed to be multirole.

The US strategy of doing everything from fighters is dead too. Cruise missile will destroy airports easily in future conflicts. Drones will be jamed and destroy by artillery.

The tank will always rule the battlefield.

This nigger here won't respond to this.......I put his niggardly ass in the spotlight when I asked him the question .....where would his supposed russian ass be in Syria, if it wasn't for Iran?........lol.......to which he says I am already 2000 miles from Syria.......lol

niggers like him are not worth responding to.

par far wrote:

KiloGolf wrote:

par far wrote:You and the ones like you on this forum are driven by your anti Iranian feelings(it does not really matter because you are on a forum and don’t on the ground in Syria.)

No anti-Iranian feelings whatsover, I've got plenty of Persian friends. Used to date one a while back too.
I am driven by anti-'geopolitical stupidity' feelings.

What "anti geopolitical stupidity feelings", do you exactly have?

Most the attacks that Israel does on Syria, are on false pretexts, they want to help out their terrorists friends in Syria. And the geopolitical stupidity that you talk about, Iran has no choice but to do it, the Jews want to cause problems for Iran through their proxies. Why did Israel support terrorists in Syria? They want to do the same thing in Iran.

PapaDragon wrote:
What did I say about Iran dragging their feet? And about Russia wanting a coastline and not giving a shit about wastelands in the East? And about USA wanting a foothold for moving into Iran? And about Kurds being complete morons?

https://mobile.twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/995083149695733760

Well if that deal is true.. i consider that good news..

Russia is very realistic and practical about the entire situation..
The region of idlib was never pro ASSAD.. so it was a zone of destabilization for all Syria..
So Assad needs to see reality.. if he wants to capture ALL syria.. it will have to fight for territory of people
that never integrated in Syrian society. and could be used to destabilize again Syria.. Kurds will be loyal to Americans
always... and how is Assad going to secure its cities if allow Kurds to continue being part of Syria. Americans wanted new elections with all Syria territory ,but by exporting millions of Syrians and kurds in the zones NATO controls.. so
to artificially win the elections with Syrians and Kurds that no longer live in Syria ,even before the war began. People need to remember the Egypt vs ISrael war.. that soviets helped Egypt.. They managed to force Israel for negotiations,
but in the end the Egyptian leader was killed and a pro American puppet government took control of egypt.. So Americans defeated the soviet without firing a bullet.. similar to how they did in Ukraine. And this is the reality
Syria face... That it will be impossible for Syrian Government to get along with the Kurds ,they will be seen by society
as traitors and major resentments and tensions between Syrians and Kurds will never end.. they will be remembered as the ones who stole their land.. So there will be no peace in Syria ever.. if Kurds and Syria remains united in one land...if Americans controls the kurds... in Afrin , to capture it.. syria will need to fight the Turkey army and it will not be able to do it alone without Russia.. and Russia have its own interest too.. in having working relations with Turkey..

So the way i see it..
Russia helped Syria to kick ISIS and Alqaeda from Syria.. and keep NATO away from a full invasion..and
retrained the Syrian army and helped Syria to defend from Israel.. lost many soldiers and hundreds of $$ billions
defending Syria.. and in change Syria helps Russia to streghten its own nation security too..by helping Russia to keep Turkey away of the american orbit as much as possible.. So as long Syria can restore the control of all western Syria
and the coast.. while at same time keep enough territory in the east too for self defense .. and a connection to IRAQ
then Syria will be in a position to restore its economy and truly end the war... and all its enemies or at least most of them retreat from the fight.. only remaining problem will be Israel.. but they will retreat if US coalitions and Turkey retreat.

and analogy of this will be , if one part of your body is ill.. have cancer.. you need to remove it.. to continue to live..
other wise the cancer will spread in all the body.. same is with Syria.. the Kurds ,and the terrorist US ,Turkey and Israel support is like a cancer for Syria..and uniting all territories of Syria by force..even if people living there
truly hate the Syrian government for not being radical enough.. will only serve to Destabilize Syria again..
and syria will face Euromaidans like Ukraine again.. with millions of "peaceful protest" and terrorist paid by Saudi Arabia ,US and ISRAEL again taking control of Syrian cities.. So the final solution of the conflict , indeed can't be
done through military force.. a major peace deal will need to be done at some point.. Russia Empire History ,is full
of treaties like this... when Russia was weak and could not continue fighting..and desperately needed a break to restore its economy.. made peace deals many times with its Europeans neighbors.. So each side get something..
But this were temporary losses.. eventually all the territories lost were recovered.. later when Russia was strong..
You have today the perfect example of Crimea.. a territory Russia lost ,with the collapse of soviet union.. and now got back.. in the end. is all about this -->> $$$$ all about money.. a nation without an economy ,is a nation that is doomed to fail.. no money ,no nation.. you need a working economy for a nation to exist.. thats the first rule..and a nation in war ,for a decade or two..is a nation that have no chance to survive or continue to exist.

So Syria Government needs to choose a major Risk of take all.. risking losing 50,000 or more soldiers..
and another 10 years of war.. or take a rest now.. let the enemies enjoy a temporary for a few years 5 or 10.
and later observe how Syria recover all Turkey Stole territories without a fight.. A coup against Erdogan will end
everything. And the collapse of american economy ,will force US to retreat from middle east.. leaving Kurds again
alone without sponsor and depending on Syria to exist. since Kurds territories are landlocked.. and landlocked nations
have no chance to exist without external aid and support.. So Kurds eventually will need Syria support..and will see by themselves that an Independence in reality not many nations can achieve it.. Only major powers can.. everyone else
needs always a nation to hold their economy or supply them with all their needs. Only US ,Russia ,China ,India ,Germany ,UK ,France .. the top 5 economies.. only can realistically get a real independence , since have the geography , the water ports , the energy ,and the scientific talent and banking to create a nation fully independent and autonomous. Ukraine voted for its independence in 90s.. and what happened? It never happened.. it always depended on Russia help to raise its economy.. and after they failed , now they moving again in the other direction and seeking
to become a US colony..or state. Becoming a sovereign Independent nation .. this is wishful thinking for Kurds..
they will always need Americans to hold their economy and their trade.. or else will need Syria and Russia. Once US economy collapse , their foreign aid will be cut and Kurds will be left alone on their own. and will be asking help
Syria and offer their lands again after they realize that they can't be realistically speaking Independent..and always a major power will need to sponsor them.. Either US or Russia. because Turkey will not help Kurds in any way.

JohninMK wrote:

lulldapull wrote:This nigger here won't respond to this.......I put his niggardly ass in the spotlight when I asked him the question .....where would his supposed russian ass be in Syria, if it wasn't for Iran?........lol.......to which he says I am already 2000 miles from Syria.......lol

niggers like him are not worth responding to.

No sure if you are aware but in English, unless you are black, calling someone a 'nigger' is a very serious insult. Quite possibly getting you banned on here.

Even if you are black unless you really tight with the guy you called that, they will kill you over that in certain areas of the states.

If that guy said that to a dude in the Bronx for example he would be in a body bag in 2 hours at most and that is not a joke or an exaggeration.