Russian Economy General News: #3

The dam Saudis and US, EU(all puppets of the Rothchilds) are making moves to hurt Russia, the thing that I am worried about is will Russia be ok and able to survive this?

These dropping oil prices are a result of Saudis trying to collapse US shale business. It has nothing to do with Russia which only gets hit by accident.

Actually it has more to do with Russia than the U.S. The Saudis are doing their part in lowering oil prices, they want Russia to drop support for Syria and Assad(God bless him). That is why the zionsts are supporting nazis in Ukraine and putting all of these sanctions on Russia.

And russia is buying like crazy together with china , many europeans are quietly getting their reserves back from usa to homeland due to fear usa actually hasnt got as much gold as it claims and may use european reserves to keep a fasade going !!
now that is a huge strike at usa dollar, and much bigger sourse of panic for the pentagon.

The Gold that USA "stores" for some european countries "Allies" are stored in Federal Reserve Bank in NY which is a private bank and stands above the law, no government officials are allowed to observe the FED, nobody gets his gold back, like our german gold gone for ever.

Werewolf wrote:

And russia is buying like crazy together with china , many europeans are quietly getting their reserves back from usa to homeland due to fear usa actually hasnt got as much gold as it claims and may use european reserves to keep a fasade going !!
now that is a huge strike at usa dollar, and much bigger sourse of panic for the pentagon.

The Gold that USA "stores" for some european countries "Allies" are stored in Federal Reserve Bank in NY which is a private bank and stands above the law, no government officials are allowed to observe the FED, nobody gets his gold back, like our german gold gone for ever.

It's said that the Netherlands is trying to bring back their gold, but why? Well the fiscal cliff is coming, and our inept govt. still hasn't passed a real budget in close to 4 years, and if they fail to pass one or make a temporary deal than the U.S. govt. would be on the verge of default. If the U.S. govt defaults than it means the death of the Dollar as the world reserve currency as we know it! Life will be terrible for me and my family but for the most part the rest of the world would benefit greatly from it. All those countries want their gold back because the default would cause radical game breaking fluctuation of the value of the Dollar. We could just as easily see hyperinflation and a massive exit from the Dollar from countries that have those reserves in large quantities, and the only ways to prevent this are:

1.) Declare a debt moratorium, and write off a lot the debt.

2.) Pass a budget.

3.) Enact currency and exchange controls.

We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b. The rearmament plans are gone. US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed. Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence. They are run by Republicans now.

Cheap Russian gas will outlast subsidized American shale, and really that is what this is about, killing supply, or rather the suppliers to raise future prices. Survival of the fittest.

I don't see much of conspiracy here, there's just too many suppliers flooding the market, and not enough demand due to the global recession some people seem to forget we're in.

I worry about states like Venezuela, which is going to face problems.

Vladimir79 wrote:We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b.  The rearmament plans are gone.  US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed.  Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence.    They are run by Republicans now.

lol, $90 billion? That's a load of baloney.

You really think the current oil price is permanent? Market fluctuations, until the new equilibrium is reached - nothing more.
No doubt it would be lower than before, but the era of cheap oil has gone for good and is not coming back.

And yes I think the yanks have their hand in this. A share of their shale industry is a small price to pay for hitting Iran, Venezuela and Russia - their 3 biggest ass-pains - in a triple whammy.

Fear not though, because it matters little. Iran and Venezuela may be in for trouble - but Russia has reserves to last a while. Russia needs a little time to come back with a response to this - but it won't take forever. Many of the more minor Arab oil producers were dismayed with the Saudi decision to keep production levels high. Then there are the Iranians and Venezuelans - also major oil producers - who also don't benefit from a glut of oil on the market. Add in the Iraqis, who the Iranians and Russians have influence amongst. And of course the Russians themselves, the 2nd largest oil exporter in the world.
See where I'm going with this?

And that's just the symmetric response. Seeing as some nations have apparently lowered themselves to this level - Russia can respond asymmetrically by cutting production and driving up the prices of metals and minerals. Ought to give a nice sting to the balls to the EU especially. Although it will hurt friendly countries too - so everything must be thought out and considered first.

Vladimir79 wrote:We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b.  The rearmament plans are gone.  US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed.  Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence.    They are run by Republicans now.

No need to hyperventilate, 2/3rd's of the Shale supply in the U.S. has already been written off, only 1/3rd of the original speculative amount exists:

EIA officials told the Los Angeles Times that previous estimates of recoverable oil in the Monterey shale reserves in CALIFORNIA of about 15.4 billion barrels were vastly overstated. The revised estimate, they said, will slash this amount by 96% to a puny 600 million barrels of oil.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/22/two-thirds-write-down-us-shale-oil-gas-explodes-fracking-myth

...BTW those same Republicans are just as likely to make the U.S. govt. go in to default, all they know how to do is to grandstand.

Vladimir79 wrote:We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b.  The rearmament plans are gone.  US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed.  Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence.    They are run by Republicans now.

Rearmenamt plans gone? Who said that? They didnt lose this money. How would Russia lose $40B from sanctions? Russia imported that (btw, Italy lost more than $50B on exports to Russia) all Russia exported was gas/oil/metals to EU. In the end, they lost some and gained some (increased the trade surplus as example) and budget is still in place. Actually, there isnt even a deficit really as tax money provided a lot.

The $90B that your mentioning has already been explained. It really isnt money they had in the first place, cant lose something you never had. It was a loss due to oil being less than expected, but companies are still pulling in profits (albiet less than before). Lukoil mentioned that they can still make a profit at $25bbl as example.

sepheronx wrote:

Vladimir79 wrote:We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b.  The rearmament plans are gone.  US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed.  Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence.    They are run by Republicans now.

Rearmenamt plans gone? Who said that? They didnt lose this money. How would Russia lose $40B from sanctions? Russia imported that (btw, Italy lost more than $50B on exports to Russia) all Russia exported was gas/oil/metals to EU. In the end, they lost some and gained some (increased the trade surplus as example) and budget is still in place. Actually, there isnt even a deficit really as tax money provided a lot.

The $90B that your mentioning has already been explained. It really isnt money they had in the first place, cant lose something you never had. It was a loss due to oil being less than expected, but companies are still pulling in profits (albiet less than before). Lukoil mentioned that they can still make a profit at $25bbl as example.

My hopes are that they can replace the $200 billion of imports from EU with domestic goods, develop solid car, electronic brands that can fuel internal comsumption, and also that could be sold to developing markets.

Brent Dropped to $70

Rosneft's Sechin Expects Average Oil Price of $70-75 Per Barrel in 2015


SOCHI — Russia's Rosneft expects global oil prices to average $70-75 per barrel over 2015, Chief Executive Igor Sechin told reporters on Friday.

Brent crude oil steadied below $73 a barrel on Friday after hitting a fresh four-year low following OPEC's decision not to cut output.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier Friday that he was confident the oil market would find its balance by the middle of next year.

magnumcromagnon wrote:

sepheronx wrote:

Vladimir79 wrote:We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b.  The rearmament plans are gone.  US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed.  Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence.    They are run by Republicans now.

Rearmenamt plans gone? Who said that? They didnt lose this money. How would Russia lose $40B from sanctions? Russia imported that (btw, Italy lost more than $50B on exports to Russia) all Russia exported was gas/oil/metals to EU. In the end, they lost some and gained some (increased the trade surplus as example) and budget is still in place. Actually, there isnt even a deficit really as tax money provided a lot.

The $90B that your mentioning has already been explained. It really isnt money they had in the first place, cant lose something you never had. It was a loss due to oil being less than expected, but companies are still pulling in profits (albiet less than before). Lukoil mentioned that they can still make a profit at $25bbl as example.

My hopes are that they can replace the $200 billion of imports from EU with domestic goods, develop solid car, electronic brands that can fuel internal comsumption, and also that could be sold to developing markets.

Lenta posted that majority of surveyed in Russia view that low oil prices and higher cost of goods due to sanctions have effected them in some ways (50% view no change, 31% little change nothing detrimental and 16% feel they have been deeply effected). In reality, what Russian's and others need to realize is that there is now a major potential. Some article I read said that Russia refuses to give total freedom to the domestic market meaning that this will be a forever issue. But that is just plain out wrong. Total freedom isn't really what you want in terms of business cause that is open to abuse. Instead, some regulations but methods of making it cheaper to do business (already possible thanks to lower Ruble value) is the right way to go. I believe that on average, over a million small businesses are created in Russia a year and many survive and some don't (that's the market). As well, many businesses are not going to see major profits or at least major production at least till a while. Import substitution is the best way to go and the best way to modernize Russia's economy, but even then, it will take time and means that there will be struggles.

The new problem on Russia's hands are its own people. Russian citizens will now need to accept that they may face no wage growth (Wages stayed the same, even though there were predictions of wage drops) and that prices on goods may grow. In this turn, there is opportunity for people to start growing their own food, start buying raw products and not end goods (like flour/grains, and milk to make their own cheese (as example)) and doing more at home. Or, help the economy by spending "more".

They already produce their own cars, there are people looking at producing their own electronics, they make TV's and what not. But the major issue is that many companies in Russia are not really pushing export. Not many of them are looking at modernizing their facilities to reduce overhead costs. Instead, it is much cheaper and easier to just lay off people. Don't know what will happen to be honest. I kinda agree with the concept of loosening rules on private businesses (help the small business sector) and just let the bigger guys handle themselves. If the businesses decided to use foreign loans to grow, then either let them fall (someone will take its place as long as there is demand) or help to levitate the debt by either claiming chapter 11 bankruptcy (dunno if that exists in Russia, but here, it is popular methods for businesses not to pay off their debt and still keep their assets, more common than one thinks).

There is plenty of potential. The good thing is, Russia has an abundance of resources, energy and vast lands (as well as various manufacturers and industries, even if many of them are outdated). But maybe the Russian government needs to take a step back from absolute control of the domestic market, and just get rid of various fees and reduce business taxes a bit to help the average person who wants to start their own business. Maybe as well, Russian's will either have to live with less benefits (less pensions, less social programs, etc) or maybe gear towards further privatization.

I ask other members here, who have vast knowledge on economies, to please give their ideas what can be done.

Oil prices of 70$ per barrel not to have adverse impact on Russian budget - Ulyukayev

"Depressive calm" covered labor market

November 27. FINMARKET.RU - The economic situation in the country could not affect the labor market, but there was no violent reaction. The company Romir assess the current situation as "depressive calm," in which the labor market has plunged this fall.
During the survey conducted in November (involved 1,500 people living in all federal districts, and all types of settlements), only 7% of respondents reported that the fall changed jobs, which was the lowest level for the last 6 years.
Employers have practically stopped searching for new employees. Recruitment of new staff in the autumn of 2014 spent only one company out of a hundred (1%). This low rate was observed never indicated in the study Romir. Even in 2008, 7% of the company is expanding staff, based on the strengthening of its relative competitive position in the market
But staff reductions were observed only in 8% of organizations against 17% last year and 24% in autumn 2008.
Do not rush to employers in a period of economic turbulence to increase wages. Only one of the 25 companies (4%) in the autumn of 2014 was an increase in wages. A year ago, wage increases observed in every fourth company (24%). The worst situation was only in 2008, when the proportion of companies that raise wages to their employees, was only 1%.
Salary cut every 12th Company (8%). Last year, the figure was higher - 11%, and in 2008 reached 14%.
At the same time, employers are in no hurry to part with employees because "the least valuable they are separated, and the remaining impose more modest demands regarding wages and working conditions," according to Romir.

Not great but not bad. In the end, as long as average person has a job, then that is good. I understand that unemployment in Russia is still quite low (roughly 5%). But right now, this is major opportunities for Russian enterprises and people who want to become entrepreneurs to make mad cash. Mostly, the growth has all been in the agriculture sectors. Maybe consumer market manufacturers and further agriculture producers may very well benefit the whole Russian economy. I imagine the high prices for imports for popular items may benefit Russia to manufacture those within the country. Would not be very hard for them to see what are the popular items. Already by next year, Baikal electronics will produce their own ARM processor to be used for such devices as mobile computers, and those are always in major demand in Russia.

In the past, I argued with Austin (whom I owe an apology to) regarding about basic consumer electronics and how I viewed it would never be important to start, simply because of China's ability to produce it cheap. But after the Rubles decline and constant growing inflation, it may actually benefit Russia to produce such items internally, as it could not only provide a lot of jobs, but it can also possibly reduce the overall costs of goods, especially when you factor in the importing.

Turkey is hoping to triple the trade between them and Russia. And there may be move to a free trade agreement with Turkey and EEU. If that is the case, Russia could get a major influx of Turkish made goods, which can reduce inflation.

CB: Russian banks' assets in 2015 will grow by 10-15%

Central Bank predicts growth of assets of the Russian banking sector in 2015 by 10-15% to 80 trillion rubles., Said deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia Vasily Pozdyshev at the international conference NAUFOR "Trends in the development of the financial sector. European and Russian experience. "

"At the beginning of 2015, I believe, assets of the banking sector will be close to 70 trillion rubles. By the end of next year, the growth rate may be slightly lower than in 2014, but it is very likely that the assets of the banking sector will approach 80 trillion rubles. ", - He said.

According Pozdyshev, reducing the amount of bank assets in the next year will not be. "We do not expect a sharp slowdown in bank assets, despite the low economic growth in general. Estimate that a minimum growth rate of assets of the banking system in the next year will be in the region of 15%, "- he concluded.

80 trillion roubles would be about $2 Trillion

sepheronx for you

The Only Way To Stop The Empire

Thought not Russian thought would share Indias Public and External debt as part of BRICS

India Public Debt as per latest figure is ~ 40 % of its GDP
India External Debt at $440 Billion is around 23 % of GDP

We are $1.9 Trillion Economy

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/govt-s-public-debt-rises-to-rs-49-6-lakh-cr-at-sep-end-114112400882_1.html
http://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=31521


To compare Russian Figure External Debt at March 2014 is $715 Billion ( 35 % of GDP ) Public Debt at 11 % of GDP

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:zBtXPl2G428J:www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/print.aspx%3Ffile%3Dcredit_statistics/debt_an_det_new_e.htm%26pid%3Dsvs%26sid%3Ditm_272+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=in&client=firefox-a

flamming_python wrote:

Vladimir79 wrote:We already lose $40 billion a year from sanctions, now SKA oil dumping will cost us another $90b.  The rearmament plans are gone.  US shale is a strategic asset so they would get a bailout if stressed.  Don't pretend the Americans wouldn't protect the leverage they get if they reach oil independence.    They are run by Republicans now.

lol, $90 billion? That's a load of baloney.

You really think the current oil price is permanent? Market fluctuations, until the new equilibrium is reached - nothing more.
No doubt it would be lower than before, but the era of cheap oil has gone for good and is not coming back.

And yes I think the yanks have their hand in this. A share of their shale industry is a small price to pay for hitting Iran, Venezuela and Russia - their 3 biggest ass-pains - in a triple whammy.

Fear not though, because it matters little. Iran and Venezuela may be in for trouble - but Russia has reserves to last a while. Russia needs a little time to come back with a response to this - but it won't take forever. Many of the more minor Arab oil producers were dismayed with the Saudi decision to keep production levels high. Then there are the Iranians and Venezuelans - also major oil producers - who also don't benefit from a glut of oil on the market. Add in the Iraqis, who the Iranians and Russians have influence amongst. And of course the Russians themselves, the 2nd largest oil exporter in the world.
See where I'm going with this?

And that's just the symmetric response. Seeing as some nations have apparently lowered themselves to this level - Russia can respond asymmetrically by cutting production and driving up the prices of metals and minerals. Ought to give a nice sting to the balls to the EU especially. Although it will hurt friendly countries too - so everything must be thought out and considered first.

It is China and its steller rise that has ballooned oil prices, but those days are gone. We are at the new normal as they head to recession along with Europe. No one is going to cut production and lose money except Iran and its black market crude. We have reserves but it isn't going towards rearmament. Oil taxes were going to pay for that and now we dont get it.

^^ Vladimir79 , Armament is paid via budget and not via Oil Taxes , so if Budget remains the same due to devaluation then they can do the spending.

But I would assume if Oil Stays at $70-75 say for next 3 year ( highly unlikely but lets assume the worst ) then considering Putin has said Social program wont be cut the logical cut would be the next biggest item in budget which is armament.

The current armament program of 23 Trillion Rouble at todays USD price of $25 billion per trillion rouble amounts to $575 billion.

Slashing of says $75 billion in next 5 year wont be bad if economic situation does not improves

Spending $500 billion or 20 Trillion Rouble wont be bad either , Slashing 3 Trillion would be good idea.


Having Said that with 30-35 % Devaluation of Rouble they can give a great boost to Defence Export.

Pogosyan said recently that Superjet would be very competitive with Rouble Devaluation should also apply to Russian defence export

kvs wrote:Not a single mention of running a deficit.   Russia can and should run a deficit.  If it is good enough for the whole of NATO then it
is good enough for Russia.   Also, these are emergency financial conditions and a deficit is justified.  It is not some political free
lunch as is often the case in the west.   Russians are not overtaxed either, so the government could raise taxes.

A 1-2% tax on top of the 13% people pay could be specifically created to pay for military upgrades and retired when then
the upgrade program is complete in 2020-2025.  

Russia cannot rely on oil prices.  It is a dangerous and silly approach to macro economics.   It is good when the prices
are high, but bad when they go down.   Anyway, Russia is not a banana republic and is way too much panic over the
current price drop.

An unjustified panic. Even the guys who did the panicing are even saying that the oil value drop hasnt changed the budget and no deficit (like I mentioned countless times: there is a trade surplus as well as increase consolidated budget due to taxes (more people paid taxes)).

If lets say they need to chip away at defense budget, they can simply extend sap2020 to 2025 instead, extending the deadline so that they still meet the goal at a relative respectible timeline, as well as reducing defense spending a bit.

Actually, biggest hit at Russian budget is the social welfare. Free medical care and education. These two things come at a major cost in western countries like Canada, and a flat tax rate of 14% is ridiculously low. I myself am paying around 25% or more income tax (me) and then property tax is going up by $900 a year (making my property tax over $3K a year), cost of goods have gone up (inflation is higher than they calculate it. Average $5 for a colliflower...) and we hace sales taxes federal tax of 6%. Luckly, where I live, there is no provincial tax.

Russian taxes are less. Yet they get more benifits than I do. I would like to go to University for free or nearly free. We got similar medical care here though. Russians may have to look at other methods to deal with the social aspect and military aspect of the budget to save money. Privatization and possibly contracted soldiers may be more worth it overall.

Forgot to add: even with a smaller population than Russia, we still cannot get our budget in order. We may hit $1T debt one day (we are getting close). We have a nome existant military and we are a service based nation (very very little manufacturing. Mainly automobiles and auto parts. We already are losing our meat processing plants). Heck, Enmax energy has moved their tech centers to India now. Cost of doing anything here is too damn expensive. Most wages dont even meet inflation.