9M729 (SSC-X-8) GLCM

I have a piece in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists where I try to untangle the controversy around alleged Russia's non-compliance with the INF Treaty. The short version of it is that I believe that the culprit missile is an SLCM that was tested from a "wrong" kind of launcher. It's still a violation, of course, which would require some creative thinking to reverse. Read the column for details.

Hard evidence is difficult to come by these days (unfortunately, a ban on posting selfies taken on the test site seems to be enforced quite well), so all we have is bits and pieces that may or may not fit together. When the Bulletin column was published, some of my colleagues were skeptical about the SLCM claim. The question I got was, What about that 9M729 missile that looks like the Iskander's 9M728/R-500 follow-on?

Well, what about it? Very much all we know about 9M729 comes from a brief mention in a report of GosNIIP, a design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles (the site has been taken down for redesign). According to the report, Russia completed state acceptance trials of the "ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version." We know that 9M728 is a cruise missile developed as part of the Iskander project (see "Kamnev" on this page; as always, thanks to Alexander for the links). It appears that it is the missile usually referred to as R-500, which has been now deployed with Iskander-M systems.

It's very reasonable to suggest that 9M729 is a follow-on to 9M728, also to be deployed as part of the ground-based Iskander-M. If so, it appear to be a very good candidate for the role of the INF non-compliance culprit. The only thing I would note here that since it was tested together with 9M728, it's unlikely to be a follow-on. A long-range version with a light (presumably nuclear) payload would be one possibility. But not the only one.

The 9M729 theory looks fairly compelling, but it doesn't seem to fit the various bits and pieces of information about the non-compliance allegation. First, U.S. officials have repeatedly said that the missile in question is not Iskander. There are many ways to interpret these statements, but I would think that if we were talking about a nuclear-capable Iskander missile the language would have been somewhat different.

Then, as I understand, Russia has been working on long-range cruise missiles, but these seem to be larger (8 meters) missiles. This does not necessarily mean that there is no project that produced a short 6-meter missile to be launched from Iskander, but it's just another piece that doesn't quite fit.

Also, I have it on good authority that the missile in question has its own launcher (apparently treaty-compliant) that is different from the (presumably non-fixed) launcher that triggered the non-compliance allegation. Again, this does not prove anything, but it's one more detail to consider.

Finally, I would just note that the difference between SLCMs and GLCMs is very much artificial. There is no reason a SLCM cannot be easily deployed on land. There are few doubts that Russia is working on long-range SLCMs, which could then be deployed on ground-based launchers, if necessary. In fact, they don't have to be - as far as Europe is concerned, Russia could cover it with SLCMs. So, while I cannot completely rule out a scenario in which Russia decided to openly disregard the INF Treaty, I still strongly believe that the alternative - SLCM tests that turned out to be non-compliant - is much more plausible.

Militarov wrote:"There have been two Russian cruise missiles in the news lately.  One is a ground-launched cruise missile that apparently violates the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the other is a sea-launched cruise missile that Russia recently fired against targets in Syria. Both of these cruise missiles are made by the same firm, Novator.  I have a sneaking suspicion that they are closely related.  In fact, I bet they look exactly alike.  Here is my best effort at a hypothesis.  It is speculation, since the United States is not releasing any information about the missile that violates the INF treaty.  But I think we can make an educated guess or two.

Bill Gertz (I know!) claimed that Russia had, on September 2, conducted another test of the ground-launched cruise missile that the United States claims violatesthe 1987 INF Treaty.  Gertz indicated that the US designation is the “SSC-X-8.” I believe this missile is designated 9M729.  There was a Russian announcement by GosNIIP, the design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles, that Russia completed state acceptance trials of the “ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version.” We know the 9M728 is the Iskander cruise missile.  (It is also called the R500 — the name of the missile is different from its GRAU number.) The way Russian GRAU numbers work is formulaic — the 9M means it is an Army missile.  That means the 9M729 is also for Iskander or a new launcher that we have yet to see.  Let’s presume that the 9M728 is a reduced-range version of the 9M729 — an INF-compliant version of its bigger brother.  That’s not hard to believe — Russian officials have long said they could extend the range of the cruise missile for Iskander  beyond 500 km with little difficulty; their confidence was probably rooted in some evidence.



Now, this is where it gets tricky.  We know the Russians make an export version of the Kalibr family missiles, which they call  Klub.  So, Klub missiles are reduced range versions of the Kalibr systems that can be exported without violating the MTCR. (You may recall they are marketed with the awesome video about how great it is to hide cruise missiles in shipping containers.)  So, for example, the 3M14E (e is for export) Klub is a reduced range (~300 km) version of the 3M14 Kalibr that Russia used to strike Syria (2,000 km). It is hard to know how Russia reduced the range, but one option is just to reduce the size of the fuel tank. It is possible that the Kalibr and Klub versions are externally identical, although we don’t know that for certain.

If the 9M728/R500 deployed with Iskander (~500 km range) is a reduced range version of the 9M729 (~2000 km), and if the 3M14E is a reduced range version of the 3M14, what does it say that the reduced range versions appear to be identical?  That would strongly imply, to me anyway, that the 9M729 and the 3M14 are probably externally identical. We are looking at a single family of missiles. One benefit of concluding the the 3m14 and the 9M279 are likely similar is that  we can infer something about the range of one based on the other.  The United States has not offered a public assessment of the GLCM range, but the Russians have described the range of the 3m14 (SS-N-30A) as 2000-2500 km.  That would imply a similar range for the 9M729 (SSC-X-, depending on the type of warhead."

I guess this goes under Ground force thread

Full article: http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/7816/russian-cruise-missiles-revisited

"Well, what about it? Very much all we know about 9M729 comes from a brief mention in a report of GosNIIP, a design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles (the site has been taken down for redesign). According to the report, Russia completed state acceptance trials of the "ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version." We know that 9M728 is a cruise missile developed as part of the Iskander project (see "Kamnev" on this page; as always, thanks to Alexander for the links). It appears that it is the missile usually referred to as R-500, which has been now deployed with Iskander-M systems.

It's very reasonable to suggest that 9M729 is a follow-on to 9M728, also to be deployed as part of the ground-based Iskander-M. If so, it appear to be a very good candidate for the role of the INF non-compliance culprit. The only thing I would note here that since it was tested together with 9M728, it's unlikely to be a follow-on. A long-range version with a light (presumably nuclear) payload would be one possibility. But not the only one."

Source: http://russianforces.org/blog/2015/06/cruise_missiles_and_inf_-_what.shtml

Militarov wrote:"There have been two Russian cruise missiles in the news lately.  One is a ground-launched cruise missile that apparently violates the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the other is a sea-launched cruise missile that Russia recently fired against targets in Syria. Both of these cruise missiles are made by the same firm, Novator.  I have a sneaking suspicion that they are closely related.  In fact, I bet they look exactly alike.  Here is my best effort at a hypothesis.  It is speculation, since the United States is not releasing any information about the missile that violates the INF treaty.  But I think we can make an educated guess or two.

Bill Gertz (I know!) claimed that Russia had, on September 2, conducted another test of the ground-launched cruise missile that the United States claims violatesthe 1987 INF Treaty.  Gertz indicated that the US designation is the “SSC-X-8.” I believe this missile is designated 9M729.  There was a Russian announcement by GosNIIP, the design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles, that Russia completed state acceptance trials of the “ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version.” We know the 9M728 is the Iskander cruise missile.  (It is also called the R500 — the name of the missile is different from its GRAU number.) The way Russian GRAU numbers work is formulaic — the 9M means it is an Army missile.  That means the 9M729 is also for Iskander or a new launcher that we have yet to see.  Let’s presume that the 9M728 is a reduced-range version of the 9M729 — an INF-compliant version of its bigger brother.  That’s not hard to believe — Russian officials have long said they could extend the range of the cruise missile for Iskander  beyond 500 km with little difficulty; their confidence was probably rooted in some evidence.



Now, this is where it gets tricky.  We know the Russians make an export version of the Kalibr family missiles, which they call  Klub.  So, Klub missiles are reduced range versions of the Kalibr systems that can be exported without violating the MTCR. (You may recall they are marketed with the awesome video about how great it is to hide cruise missiles in shipping containers.)  So, for example, the 3M14E (e is for export) Klub is a reduced range (~300 km) version of the 3M14 Kalibr that Russia used to strike Syria (2,000 km). It is hard to know how Russia reduced the range, but one option is just to reduce the size of the fuel tank. It is possible that the Kalibr and Klub versions are externally identical, although we don’t know that for certain.

If the 9M728/R500 deployed with Iskander (~500 km range) is a reduced range version of the 9M729 (~2000 km), and if the 3M14E is a reduced range version of the 3M14, what does it say that the reduced range versions appear to be identical?  That would strongly imply, to me anyway, that the 9M729 and the 3M14 are probably externally identical. We are looking at a single family of missiles. One benefit of concluding the the 3m14 and the 9M279 are likely similar is that  we can infer something about the range of one based on the other.  The United States has not offered a public assessment of the GLCM range, but the Russians have described the range of the 3m14 (SS-N-30A) as 2000-2500 km.  That would imply a similar range for the 9M729 (SSC-X-, depending on the type of warhead."

I guess this goes under Ground force thread

Full article: http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/7816/russian-cruise-missiles-revisited

"Well, what about it? Very much all we know about 9M729 comes from a brief mention in a report of GosNIIP, a design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles (the site has been taken down for redesign). According to the report, Russia completed state acceptance trials of the "ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version." We know that 9M728 is a cruise missile developed as part of the Iskander project (see "Kamnev" on this page; as always, thanks to Alexander for the links). It appears that it is the missile usually referred to as R-500, which has been now deployed with Iskander-M systems.

It's very reasonable to suggest that 9M729 is a follow-on to 9M728, also to be deployed as part of the ground-based Iskander-M. If so, it appear to be a very good candidate for the role of the INF non-compliance culprit. The only thing I would note here that since it was tested together with 9M728, it's unlikely to be a follow-on. A long-range version with a light (presumably nuclear) payload would be one possibility. But not the only one."

Source: http://russianforces.org/blog/2015/06/cruise_missiles_and_inf_-_what.shtml

flamming_python wrote:

Militarov wrote:"There have been two Russian cruise missiles in the news lately.  One is a ground-launched cruise missile that apparently violates the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the other is a sea-launched cruise missile that Russia recently fired against targets in Syria. Both of these cruise missiles are made by the same firm, Novator.  I have a sneaking suspicion that they are closely related.  In fact, I bet they look exactly alike.  Here is my best effort at a hypothesis.  It is speculation, since the United States is not releasing any information about the missile that violates the INF treaty.  But I think we can make an educated guess or two.

Bill Gertz (I know!) claimed that Russia had, on September 2, conducted another test of the ground-launched cruise missile that the United States claims violatesthe 1987 INF Treaty.  Gertz indicated that the US designation is the “SSC-X-8.” I believe this missile is designated 9M729.  There was a Russian announcement by GosNIIP, the design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles, that Russia completed state acceptance trials of the “ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version.” We know the 9M728 is the Iskander cruise missile.  (It is also called the R500 — the name of the missile is different from its GRAU number.) The way Russian GRAU numbers work is formulaic — the 9M means it is an Army missile.  That means the 9M729 is also for Iskander or a new launcher that we have yet to see.  Let’s presume that the 9M728 is a reduced-range version of the 9M729 — an INF-compliant version of its bigger brother.  That’s not hard to believe — Russian officials have long said they could extend the range of the cruise missile for Iskander  beyond 500 km with little difficulty; their confidence was probably rooted in some evidence.



Now, this is where it gets tricky.  We know the Russians make an export version of the Kalibr family missiles, which they call  Klub.  So, Klub missiles are reduced range versions of the Kalibr systems that can be exported without violating the MTCR. (You may recall they are marketed with the awesome video about how great it is to hide cruise missiles in shipping containers.)  So, for example, the 3M14E (e is for export) Klub is a reduced range (~300 km) version of the 3M14 Kalibr that Russia used to strike Syria (2,000 km). It is hard to know how Russia reduced the range, but one option is just to reduce the size of the fuel tank. It is possible that the Kalibr and Klub versions are externally identical, although we don’t know that for certain.

If the 9M728/R500 deployed with Iskander (~500 km range) is a reduced range version of the 9M729 (~2000 km), and if the 3M14E is a reduced range version of the 3M14, what does it say that the reduced range versions appear to be identical?  That would strongly imply, to me anyway, that the 9M729 and the 3M14 are probably externally identical. We are looking at a single family of missiles. One benefit of concluding the the 3m14 and the 9M279 are likely similar is that  we can infer something about the range of one based on the other.  The United States has not offered a public assessment of the GLCM range, but the Russians have described the range of the 3m14 (SS-N-30A) as 2000-2500 km.  That would imply a similar range for the 9M729 (SSC-X-, depending on the type of warhead."

I guess this goes under Ground force thread

Full article: http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/7816/russian-cruise-missiles-revisited

"Well, what about it? Very much all we know about 9M729 comes from a brief mention in a report of GosNIIP, a design bureau that builds guidance for cruise missiles (the site has been taken down for redesign). According to the report, Russia completed state acceptance trials of the "ground-based system 9M728, 9M729 and its modernized version." We know that 9M728 is a cruise missile developed as part of the Iskander project (see "Kamnev" on this page; as always, thanks to Alexander for the links). It appears that it is the missile usually referred to as R-500, which has been now deployed with Iskander-M systems.

It's very reasonable to suggest that 9M729 is a follow-on to 9M728, also to be deployed as part of the ground-based Iskander-M. If so, it appear to be a very good candidate for the role of the INF non-compliance culprit. The only thing I would note here that since it was tested together with 9M728, it's unlikely to be a follow-on. A long-range version with a light (presumably nuclear) payload would be one possibility. But not the only one."

Source: http://russianforces.org/blog/2015/06/cruise_missiles_and_inf_-_what.shtml

I really do hate it when people, especially those purporting to be military analysts, get their damn Iskander-Ms and Iskander-Ks mixed up.

dino00 wrote:And here is the beast!

"A special configuration of the self-propelled launcher was developed for the 9M729 missile. It accommodates four 9M729 missiles, while the previous launcher carries two 9M728 missiles," the commander of Russia’s Missile and Artillery Force, Lieutenant-General Mikhail Matveyevsky told a news briefing earlier.