Future russian aircraft carriers. #2

The economy is at least capable of handling 1 more, and if they start in the 2020s by 2030s the can build another carrier.
BTW how many Carriers will flippin India have by then, 4,5?

Capable isn't = that 100% it will happen. In that decade, many events can derail/delay it. India has a huge trade surplus, but still builds her CVs even if she doesn't really need them much, as some suggested, to support domestic economy & industrial/naval shipbuilding base; her geopolitical situation is also very different.

AlfaT8 wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:Surely  before 2030s. Economy first. Read technology. Now as every child know a new economy cycle starts (Kondratiev wave if you prefer). either Russia gets on train or gets to league of Iran / North Korea (proud independent but not able to withstand US aggression dure to small economy and fairly low technology level)  . IMHO thet's why first Russia developed Kiznhals & co to keep enemies at bay. Overseas operations are on hold till economy can sustain more effort.

The economy is at least capable of handling 1 more, and if they start in the 2020s by 2030s the can build another carrier.

if you spend 5blns on CVN you dotn have it on other ships or missiles that keep US at bay. Or R&D.
Besides did you look at map recently?! where around Russia do you have need for ACs?!  norther route? Kamchatka?! or Baltic/Caspian /Black /Mediterranean ?  Kiznahl makes safe zone more less 2000 form Russian borders.

BTW how many Carriers will flippin India have by then, 4,5?

Flippin?!        they by 2030 will be bigger then US and then challenge China.

Russia GDP in 2017 is like 4000 blns $
Growth 1,8%
Putin wants to 2025 have 6000 BLns


India's GDP PPP in 2017 was 9,459,002$
growth 7,5%
Modi wants to grow it 2x till 2025.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

Flippin?!        they by 2030 will be bigger then US and then challenge China.

Russia GDP in 2017 is like 4000 blns $
Growth 1,8%
Putin wants to 2025 have 6000 BLns

.

India's GDP PPP in 2017 was 9,459,002$
growth 7,5%
Modi wants to grow it 2x till 2025.

Unfortunately, India will most likely never surpass the US in GDP. You are severely overestimating India's economic might. The Indian middle class is a myth.

The US (and China, to a lesser extent) has been very lucky in that it rose to superpower status at a time when natural resource depletion and overpopulation wasn't really that big of a problem.

Ghandi once said "The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed".
India will not be able to achieve a first world status unless the current middle class all the way up to the elites of the world gives away a huge chunk of their position. China will not let that happen.
The world cannot support 7 billion middle class or even half that. There are only certain number of slots left and the fight will  not be about increasing it, but by kicking somebody else out(not necessarily by force)  so you can get in. We are at a point now where human progress is really just a conversion or rotation, unlike the past 2000 years.

Interesting times are ahead.

Tingsay wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

AlfaT8 wrote:

Flippin?!        they by 2030 will be bigger then US and then challenge China.

Russia GDP in 2017 is like 4000 blns $
Growth 1,8%
Putin wants to 2025 have 6000 BLns

.

India's GDP PPP in 2017 was 9,459,002$
growth 7,5%
Modi wants to grow it 2x till 2025.

Unfortunately, India will most likely never surpass the US in GDP. You are severely overestimating India's economic might. The Indian middle class is a myth.

like in USA or western Europe then I live in Eu and trust me times are changing here. for worse fr most of population. After 2007

The US (and China, to a lesser extent) has been very lucky in that it rose to superpower status at a time when natural resource depletion and overpopulation wasn't really that big of a problem.

There are vast resources still, just western way is unsustainable. Overpopulation in India is indeed a problem though. 3,3 mln km2 is fairly tight for 1,4 blns of people. Perhaps underwater cities? India can be a leader of...

Ghandi once said "The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed".

no way Gandhi was so much anti American and antisemitic?!

India will not be able to achieve a first world status unless the current middle class all the way up to the elites of the world gives away a huge chunk of their position. China will not let that happen.

like China has much of a choice ....

The world cannot support 7 billion middle class or even half that. There are only certain number of slots left and the fight will  not be about increasing it, but by kicking somebody else out(not necessarily by force)  so you can get in. We are at a point now where human progress is really just a conversion or rotation, unlike the past 2000 years.
Interesting times are ahead.

depends on how would you define "middle class". In west gen really will go down. it is in making now. In China and India people are going up. at some poit botj levels can potentially meet. Besides India is only like 18% of world population and not necessarily will increase its % rate.

PapaDragon wrote:Yo "genius", do you know why US has all those destroyers floating about? They are there to protect aircraft carriers​, not the other way around.

Yo ma man, when the enemy has air-power and you don't, guess who's Ships go to the bottom of the sea.

"Union" died and rotted away 30 years ago. Accept it already.

Midway was 8 decades ago. In this day and age you fight aircraft with missiles.

How does the Union's death translate to, "they can't build 'em", reality is they can build it, Accept it already.

And just like 8 decades ago, planes are still a threat, will you have enough missiles for both planes and ships.

Only thing that can force them to waste money on carriers is if someone travels back in time and stops missiles from being invented.

Or pick their ships off, as soon as they leave air-cover from land, forcing the matter.

In that case those allies are fucked because why bother with allies away from borders when even ones close to borders have notoriously​ shitty loyalty?

As for ones away from the border I give you example of Angola back in CW. One of many.

Bhahaha...... right, their loyalty is sh%tty because you don't have what it takes to back your alliance up, you want influence, you need the ships to back it up.

CW?

GunshipDemocracy wrote:if you spend 5blns on CVN you dotn have it on other ships or missiles that keep US at bay.  Or R&D.
Besides did you look at map recently?! where around Russia do you have need for ACs?!  norther route? Kamchatka?! or Baltic/Caspian /Black /Mediterranean ?  Kiznahl makes safe zone more less 2000 form Russian borders.

If those ships don't have any air-cover than they wont be able to keep anyone at bay.
Great, it looks like the U.S strategy for Containing Russia has worked wonderfully.

Flippin?!        they by 2030 will be bigger then US and then challenge China.

Russia GDP in 2017 is like 4000 blns $
Growth 1,8%
Putin wants to 2025 have 6000 BLns


India's GDP PPP in 2017 was 9,459,002$
growth 7,5%
Modi wants to grow it 2x till 2025.

Wow, i guess i should have said 14,15 instead.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If Russia has any intention to send warships away from the protected coastline, they need CV's that is not up for debate the level of ignorance by armchair admirals here is cute.

If you followed that mindset the Russian navy would be destroyed fairly easy. No Air cover means easy targets, Air air based ship systems only go so far.

Russian land-based systems do not have infinite range.

Russia doesn't need like eight carriers but they do need some.

And threats from missiles are why Carriers have Escorts.

My 5 cents.

Does Russia need carriers? Yes. Imo up to 4 carriers, 2 per major fleet would be more than enough. Even 3 would do, 4 would be ideal.

Do they need 100.000t carrier... i dont think it is mandatory for carriers to be of such size, something bigger than Kuz, capable to carry 40+ fixed wing aircraft with catapults is more than enough.

Do they need carries this moment? No, as there are no facilities for such ships, nor there are enough escorts for such ships.

Do they need them in future? Yes... when they build the God damn escorts.

Can they build the carrier? Now? No. In future? I fkn hope so in few years.

Should they buy the carrier from Chinese? Well... i wouldnt if i had to choose.

Should they consult Chinese on the matter? Hell yes, buy components even if required, better Chinese than German.

Are carriers obsolete? Less invulnerable than 40 years ago, but i dont think they are as concept going anywhere for looooong time.

 Wow. According to western "experts" Russia must be the only country in the world that has no use for carriers. This is frankly pathetic.

So US, UK, France, China, India, Turkey and who not all operate or develop carriers (not to talk about the countries with LHDs). This is al ok and belongs to legitimate power projection aspirations of countries. But Russia has no need, no money, no shipyards, no experience... better not even try building CVs Russians, stay at home and please don't compete with other countries' "legitimate" colonialism.

What a load of crap!

LMFS wrote:  Wow. According to western "experts" Russia must be the only country in the world that has no use for carriers. This is frankly pathetic.
What a load of crap!

not sure if you can read with understanding. Russia doenst need CVN now . Now half a trillion ruble is nonsense. That's why all fleet of Tu-22 and tu-160 with long range hypersonic missiles. As soon as economy jumpstarts CVNs can go or not. Never before 2030s.  With what fighter is theres only MiG-29 now?

but frankly need for colonial wars as you want Russia to have is little. Unless you need to fight Turkeys CSGs in Black Sea?!


BTW Turkey aircraft carrier? never heard they have one? how many?

SeigSoloyvov wrote:If Russia has any intention to send warships away from the protected coastline, they need CV's that is not up for debate the level of ignorance by armchair admirals here is cute.

and you are in group of real admirals?

If you followed that mindset the Russian navy would be destroyed fairly easy. No Air cover means easy targets, Air air based ship systems only go so far.

and what brings those fighters to Russian shores? if any CVN can be destroyed by 2000 km form Russian shores.

LMFS wrote:  Wow. According to western "experts" Russia must be the only country in the world that has no use for carriers. This is frankly pathetic.

So US, UK, France, China, India, Turkey and who not all operate or develop carriers (not to talk about the countries with LHDs). This is al ok and belongs to legitimate power projection aspirations of countries. But Russia has no need, no money, no shipyards, no experience... better not even try building CVs Russians, stay at home and please don't compete with other countries' "legitimate" colonialism.

What a load of crap!

Only US carriers are helpfull because they have 20 of them of all sort and they each one carry more planes than a normal air force has fighters on the ground. They also have 70 destroyers to protect them.

All the others are useless against an army that has an airforce, subs and frigates. What would Indian or french carrier do against lets say an army like Israel ? Nothing they are sitting ducks. BIG TARGET that will be targeted by hundreds of missiles before it reaches the area of operations. And they have only 1 of them so if they loose it the rest of their ships are dead too.

Just look what argentinians did with 4 exocets and 6 Super Etandard... if they had 4 more exocets they would have destroyed the carriers whuch had air dominace around the battle group with AWACS helicopter and still they couldn't intercept non stralthy fighters 40 km away and two slow anti ship missiles. Imagine now a Pak da or a su-57 launching supersonic/hypersonic missiles hundreds of km away against a charles de gaulle with a coupke of aster or against a Kuznetsov with tor missiles or even a nimitz with some Phalanx ? They are siting ducks ...

Seriously missiles are better than ships defences. Now they even have longer range than the carrier air wings. They can launch hundreds of them fir the price of on corvette and destroy a multi billion ship with multi billion $ air wing and about 5000 people on it.

Having one or two cariiers is useless. Even the 20 us carrier are useless if you have the future tzirkon and some yassen to carry many of them on each one.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:not sure if you can read with understanding. Russia doenst need CVN now . Now half a trillion ruble is nonsense. That's why all fleet of Tu-22 and tu-160 with long range hypersonic missiles. As soon as economy jumpstarts CVNs can go or not. Never before 2030s.  With what fighter is theres only MiG-29 now?

You can be sure Gunship, I can read.   Nevertheless I am not directing my comments to you or the forum users here, rather referring to endless experts in the media trying so hard to make the case that Russia does not need bothering with carriers. No F*ckn anyone needs carriers to defend the country!! But the comment is interestingly always pointed towards Russia. What need do France and UK have for carriers, for God's sake?

To your comment: need (or rather convenience) and possibility are different things. Russia can have currently difficulties to build, protect and operate carriers, agreed. That doesn't mean that they could not be used today if they and their supporting assets were available. That also doesn't mean that they cannot make now the multi-decade plans needed to build and operate carriers in the future.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
but frankly need for colonial wars as you want Russia to have is little. Unless you need to fight Turkeys CSGs in Black Sea?!      

Not that I want Russia to engage in colonial wars. But if they are to refrain from exerting military influence abroad, then let us please require the same from the rest of countries in the world, there would be a hell of scrappin' to do in the Western navies first of all don't you think?

Black Sea has access prohibited to carriers BTW But no, I am not referring to such things. The case for the Russian CVs (not even talking of CVNs) has been made abundantly clear in this thread through the years, I think it is not needed to repeat again all the reasons why it makes sense and can be useful and how that does not mean wanting to replicate the US Navy.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:
BTW Turkey aircraft carrier? never heard they have one? how many?      

I said operating or developing Gunship! But of course, everybody wants a carrier:
http://www.denizhaber.com.tr/icdas-tersanesinde-ucak-gemisi-icin-hazirliklar-basladi-haber-81684.htm

They are going for their second LHD BTW:
http://en.c4defence.com/Agenda/tcg-trakya-on-the-way/6374/1

Isos wrote:
Only US carriers are helpfull because they have 20 of them of all sort and they each one carry more planes than a normal air force has fighters on the ground. They also have 70 destroyers to protect them.

All the others are useless against an army that has an airforce, subs and frigates. What would Indian or french carrier do against lets say an army like Israel ? Nothing they are sitting ducks. BIG TARGET that will be targeted by hundreds of missiles before it reaches the area of operations. And they have only 1 of them so if they loose it the rest of their ships are dead too.

Just look what argentinians did with 4 exocets and 6 Super Etandard... if they had 4 more exocets they would have destroyed the carriers whuch had air dominace around the battle group with AWACS helicopter and still they couldn't intercept non stralthy fighters 40 km away and two slow anti ship missiles. Imagine now a Pak da or a su-57 launching supersonic/hypersonic missiles hundreds of km away against a charles de gaulle with a coupke of aster or against a Kuznetsov with tor missiles or even a nimitz with some Phalanx ? They are siting ducks ...

Seriously missiles are better than ships defences. Now they even have longer range than the carrier air wings. They can launch hundreds of them fir the price of on corvette and destroy a multi billion ship with multi billion $ air wing and about 5000 people on it.

Having one or two cariiers is useless. Even the 20 us carrier are useless if you have the future tzirkon and some yassen to carry many of them on each one.

Again:

Carriers are not intended to defend the territory of the motherland

We all agree they stand no chance against modern missile systems like the ones deployed by the RF.

They are useful to protect interests abroad. And yes, that means essentially to deploy them away from powerful countries that could sink them in the blink of an eye. That goes for all of the CSG in this world, including the American ones.

Why is it "useful" for US to bully the whole world but that wouldn't be "useful" for Russia? Why does Russia need to be the one showing morals and restrain in the face of outright Western colonialism?

LMFS wrote:
Again:

Carriers are not intended to defend the territory of the motherland

We all agree they stand no chance against modern missile systems like the ones deployed by the RF.

They are useful to protect interests abroad. And yes, that means essentially to deploy them away from powerful countries that could sink them in the blink of an eye. That goes for all of the CSG in this world, including the American ones.

Why is it "useful" for US to bully the whole world but that wouldn't be "useful" for Russia? Why does Russia need to be the one showing morals and restrain in the face of outright Western colonialism?

So after 2030s is K to me for colonial gunship democracy diplomacy with VSTOL of course

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Cute Russia would find it hard to sink a CBG 2000km away from it's shores, it would need to bring many missile systems in one place to stand a chance at that.

do you suggest there is lack of Tu-22 and MiGs-31 in Russia?  You know Russian geography right? there are how many locations for potential aggression over Kazakhstan or sea of Belorussia? of Baltic/Black?
Damn so either between Norway and Island and Pacific region. So how many groups should be       do the math. BTW Why Russia remakes 36 Tu 22's which only task  swill be carrying Kh-32)?
Why 30-40Migs 31 K is be made?

Meanwhile, it can gather those systems to fend off one group but oh wait here comes another.

Then you sane another salvo, much cheaper. Besides in 3 WW there will be not another waves. this is not midway.
And if you got CSG then wait Midway? ah yesss Midway again !!!

Also 2000KM isn't that far in naval area, that really short distance to be honest.

F-18 combat radius is what 750km?! Tomahawk is max 2500 km. BTW MiG-31 radius is 700 on supersonic speed. + 2000 km is not enough right only 4 times more than any of US based fighters and still more than any of Us CSG available tools.

1,917 km
Distance from Vladivostok to Naha (Okinawa)

1,039 mi
Distance from Anchorage to Anadyr

Distance is 2898 kilometers
Archanglesk Reykjavik

Again armchair experts, Carriers aren't the god tools they were in WW2 sure, but they still have a very important job to play in aval assists

Are you admiral or just yet another armchair admiral . dotn be shy share news? Russia doesnt need it now as simple as that. Perhaps in future for colonial wars.

Again:

Carriers are not intended to defend the territory of the motherland

We all agree they stand no chance against modern missile systems like the ones deployed by the RF.

They are useful to protect interests abroad. And yes, that means essentially to deploy them away from powerful countries that could sink them in the blink of an eye. That goes for all of the CSG in this world, including the American ones.

Why is it "useful" for US to bully the whole world but that wouldn't be "useful" for Russia? Why does Russia need to be the one showing morals and restrain in the face of outright Western colonialism?

Yes they are not intended to defend motherland so they will be send far away near unfriendly countries.

Russia doesn't have interest abroad. Only Syria and they have already secured it during a civil war without carrier and where US army was present. So where would they send them ? In South America where US could mobilize a big fleet in matters of hours ? Or in mediteranean where NATO countries and US bombers are ? Or Pacific near US bases ?

I agree a carrier provide very good air support in open ocean but if you want to use it for canon diplomacy against modern countries it won't work. I fyou want to use it to "colonize" poor defenceless african countries well do it.

I only disagree about the use of carriers.

Cute Russia would find it hard to sink a CBG 2000km away from it's shores, it would need to bring many missile systems in one place to stand a chance at that.

You guys act like the Carrer will be on it's own, they will not be they will be under an umbrella of multi types of AA. Getting a hit is possible but it will not be easy at all.

Meanwhile, it can gather those systems to fend off one group but oh wait here comes another.

Land based systems aren't some godly divine tool that can save your ass they help sure but they have limits.

Also 2000KM isn't that far in naval area, that really short distance to be honest.

Again armchair experts, Carriers aren't the god tools they were in WW2 sure, but they still have a very important job to play in aval assists.

There is a difference between a real carrier and its escort and the US 100Kt escorted by their 70 destroyers and all the assest of their EU and arab dogs.

If you take France for exemple, only French carrier and french navy without NATO, they could deploy 3 or 4 modern frigates to protect it 2 months per year. So a volley of Kh-22 plus some kh-35 launched from a douzen of Sukhois will go through. It's not hard to deploy 1 A50U, 10 sukhoi and 20 tu-22M. Same for Indian or Russian carrier.

Many people on forums only compare Nato hundreds of vessels against the small russian navy. Sure Nato is more powerfull but stil doesn't win because of the nuk. But if you take into account a normal situation with a normal carrier and normal escort against a well armed country the carrier won't be as effective as in NATO operation agasint farmers in te middle of desert.

PapaDragon wrote:
Russia has no use for carriers now. And once long down the road when they might need them they will need them in order to do same thing that first three countries on that list have been using them for last several decades: dropping bombs from uncontested airspace in neo-colonial wars. Definitely not in Midway-style​ naval battles.

As for China and India, they might use them for mutual dick-waving but should they ever try to use them in near-peer engagement those things will become coral reefs within first several hours regardless of who they fight against.

I honestly have no idea why Turks want carriers, they have even less use for them than Russia.


So long story short: Russia would need them for neo-colonial wars long down the road against seriously inferior enemies but for something like that good old LHD with STOVL fighters will more than suffice. Literally same thing that Japanese are doing right now with Izumo and F-35.

Russia has many traditional allies and interests in the world, if they had the means they would have the occasion for using carriers.

Let's be real: big countries have interests abroad and it is just normal that they want to protect them. The advantage of multipolarity is not that 'Realpolitik' is over, but that the level of influence off the players is levelled and smaller countries can therefore chose the block that better protects their interests.

Not really disagreeing with the rest, except with the STOVL part

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Cute Russia would find it hard to sink a CBG 2000km away from it's shores, it would need to bring many missile systems in one place to stand a chance at that.

You guys act like the Carrer will be on it's own, they will not be they will be under an umbrella of multi types of AA. Getting a hit is possible but it will not be easy at all.

Meanwhile, it can gather those systems to fend off one group but oh wait here comes another.

Land based systems aren't some godly divine tool that can save your ass they help sure but they have limits.

Also 2000KM isn't that far in naval area, that really short distance to be honest.

Again armchair experts, Carriers aren't the god tools they were in WW2 sure, but they still have a very important job to play in aval assists.

Cannot talk authoritatively here but the variety and characteristics of current AShM and carriers in Russia means IMO that in case of heavy confrontation in Russian territory the CSGs will head the opposite direction of where the fight takes place... many military analysts out there pointing exactly that.

Consider only some of the current crop of missiles: Kalibr, Kinzhal, Kh-32, Oniks. Add to it Zircon to be deployed in coming years. Is not that stopping all of them together in salvos is exceedingly difficult, stopping just one of those missiles is already a challenge.

Regarding the range: MiG-31 + Kinzhal is like 3500 km (in supersonic flight). Tu-22M3 + Kh-32 are also in that ballpark. From that distance a carrier group cannot do anything, unless they send to you their air wing with all EFTs they have and you are so kind to refuel them for the way back

Isos wrote:
Yes they are not intended to defend motherland so they will be send far away near unfriendly countries.

Russia doesn't have interest abroad. Only Syria and they have already secured it during a civil war without carrier and where US army was present. So where would they send them ? In South America where US could mobilize a big fleet in matters of hours ? Or in mediteranean where NATO countries and US bombers are ? Or Pacific near US bases ?

I agree a carrier provide very good air support in open ocean but if you want to use it for canon diplomacy against modern countries it won't work. I fyou want to use it to "colonize" poor defenceless african countries well do it.

I only disagree about the use of carriers.

No need to colonize anyone. But Russia of course has interests abroad and is entitled as ANY other country to defend them, for instance supporting allies facing a blockade or against amassing NATO forces. And everywhere in this world you can have a US CSG in matter of 48 hours, that is exactly the requirement under which the CVNs are developed AFAIK. Considering this and the ubiquitous US base presence, you better design your own CVs to defend accordingly, there is no escaping that reality.

Russia doesn't have interest abroad.

What the actual fuck xD

Militarov wrote:Russia doesn't have interest abroad.

What the actual fuck xD

Which russian interest abroad needs a carrier for defence ?

1 russian carrier won't stop US attacking poor countries. They launched attack on SAA more than once while russia has an airbase comparable to a carrier in Syria and they were not stoped.

Isos wrote:

Militarov wrote:Russia doesn't have interest abroad.

What the actual fuck xD

Which russian interest abroad needs a carrier for defence ?

1 russian carrier won't stop US attacking poor countries. They launched attack on SAA more than once while russia has an airbase comparable to a carrier in Syria and they were not stoped.

To be fair not like Russians were burning with desire to fight Coalition over Syria. However it would be quite different story if 50 miles from the US carries was parked 80.000t Russian carrier with 10 ship strong escort, as they wouldnt be there in such situation in a first place.

How about Russian installations in Cuba lets say. Or Kuril Islands. You think its easier to defend Kurils in case of, highly unlikely conflict but lets say for the sake of it, with or without naval wing?

What if Russians decided to prevent lets say... US attacking NK in 5 years. How are they going to do it... by walking down to Pyongyang? No, you park the carrier group, say, if you attack them, you are attacking us too, bla bla bla, negotiations table and stuff.

Its not same if you come with carrier and 4 destroyers or when you come with floating bathtub that has Gibka and 76mm peashooter. As much as military asset (expencive one i know), carrier is a statement too. Liked we that or not, South Korea and Japan are big time interested in real carriers, even tho lets say... they dont really need them either at this point. But i myself do not need Audi A8, doesnt mean i wouldnt like to have one in the times when i want to make a clear statement, if you know what i mean.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Militarov wrote:Russia doesn't have interest abroad.

What the actual fuck xD

Yup my thoughts exactly.

I don't think some people here realize how a country is run.

Every country has interests abroad, no matter how small or weird they are. Let alone Russia... lol.