Syrian War: News #20

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Russia isn't going to bomb the turks over Assad, that's not how Putin works.

If the Turks start shooting the SAA are good as defeated, Turkish army is way stronger.

indeed..
But economy and public support is something as important as the military force..
This is why trump did not retaliated to Iran.. even when the US navy can destroy all iranian cities..
same way most syrian cities already destroyed and the buildings have to be rebuild ,most of them..

So Turkey army if start a major war against Syria ,in full scale.. will face a similar attrition war that American troops faced in vietnam.. with Russia providing state of the art weapons to SAA . So is a war turkey can't win
unless they capture damascus by force and kick Russia from their military base.. which means war with Russia.
So even erdogan understand this.. his options are limited and he will lose everything if start shooting down
russian planes.. Like i said.. Russia is in a major numbers disadvantage on the syrian territory versus a full scale
army invasion.. but in Erdogan goes full retard and start attacking Russian planes and Russian base, he will get owned pretty bad from the rear flank.. Russia navy and airforce will crush the turkey navy in black sea and continue bombing turkey economic zones ,bridges..to force erdogan abandon syria.. so it will be a pretty nasty
decision ,the iran will be doing the same.. there is no way erdogan can win a war against a nuclear super power
if declare war on russia.. not even with americans helping.. they will stay away from it.. they already did it ,when turkey shot down just 1 russian plane.. erdogan tought nato was going to save him.. from a war with
russia and everyone left him alone.. because nobody will take a nuclear strike in Nato from russia in defense of a tyrant like Erdogan who aids alqaeda in syria and attack kurds too that nato support.

So Russia can force erdogan to leave syria ,by the use of lethal force.. is leave or leave.. attacking turkey from
black sea.. if he don't listen will get his entire navy destroyed and his military will rebel against him.. they know
they have no chance in a full scale war vs Russia..

so the other option erdogan have.. is to continue doing the same thing ,he have been doing..
playing double games... in a friendship with russia and at war with syria.. so he will continue losing territory
in idlib as long russia dominate the airspace.. and is allowed to bomb their jihadist..

So erdogan options are lose or lose.. lose by proxy to small Russia airforce in syria by the defeat of his backed
terrorist... or lose to a full scale war with Russian airforce and Russian navy in black sea. so Erdogan have no winning strategy at all.. he can only lose in syria..

However if Erdogan wakes up , and is smart. he can save face. .and choose the much less bad option
and that is fully restore relation with Russia and reach an agreement over idlib .. allowing the SAA to continue capturing those highways ,while he hold idlib main city.. he can say ,they don't need that highway anyway.. and that Turkey only mission was to "protect idlib main city" their supported citizens.. which i strong believe syria should never take by force ..and only through dialogue and diplomacy with some kind of strong autonomy
while controlling all entry and exist points , so no more weapons enter..

IDlIB is filled with anti ASSAD citizens and pro Turkey ,so will cause a lot of troubles to Syria its civilians with civil unrest...


in other news..
Already the first casualties of turkey army began..since the last turkey operation..
SAA killed another 5 turkey soldiers... today ,after the 4 ones they killed last week.
and turkey shelled back at SAA. seems they bombed turkey army when to move in a convoy
weapons to the terrorist they fighting..

https://www.rt.com/news/480506-turkey-syria-shelling-idlib/

which tank is that?

is that turkey best tanks? or just oldest ones , ?

Vann7 wrote:

which tank is that?

is that turkey best tanks? or just oldest ones  , ?

It's upgraded M60 "Upgraded by Israel army ".

http://www.military-today.com/tanks/sabra.htm

Nice, more of it please. This is will become very costly to Turkey. He’s a mad dog that’s for sure.

ahmedfire wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

which tank is that?

is that turkey best tanks? or just oldest ones  , ?

It's upgraded M60 "Upgraded by Israel army ".

http://www.military-today.com/tanks/sabra.htm

He spend all his time saying Israeli are nazis but let them upgrade its tanks.

Erdogan is a really a rare specimen.

Pecking order never established. Dirty game has to be played.

This is why Russia will continue to be for a long foreseeable future a second rate power. You can't bank on their protection. When the going gets tough... you get a lot of balks and half assed support.

This Idlib nonsense should have been handled like Aleppo... so should have the Eastern Euphrates. But not before Russian deal making had any say about it... Too "smart" for their own good.

So you get standard Russian client state problems... mired in frozen conflict, harassed by its competitors, attrition - a MESS. And everyone watches and can see it for themselves.... which makes becoming a Russian client state/ally a last resort option for nations. West gets VIP, if a deal can be cut (wink Iran - and rightfully so). If it weren't for the fact that the West overplays their greed by springing chaos everywhere to create winners and losers, Russia would have an even smaller market to work from.

Never learn.

ATLASCUB wrote:Pecking order never established. Dirty game has to be played.

This is why Russia will continue to be for a long foreseeable future a second rate power. You can't bank on their protection. When the going gets tough... you get a lot of balks and half assed support.

This Idlib nonsense should have been handled like Aleppo... so should have the Eastern Euphrates. But not before Russian deal making had any say about it... Too "smart" for their own good.

So you get standard Russian client state problems... mired in frozen conflict, harassed by its competitors, attrition - a MESS. And everyone watches and can see it for themselves.... which makes becoming a Russian client state/ally a last resort option for nations. West gets VIP, if a deal can be cut (wink Iran - and rightfully so). If it weren't for the fact that the West overplays their greed by springing chaos everywhere to create winners and losers, Russia would have an even smaller market to work from.

Never learn.

Not really.

Iran/SA are going to Moscow to discuss their conflict.

Iran/Israel are going to Moscow to discuss their conflict.

France/Germany are going to Moscow to discuss world stability and take distances with US.

Syria became a shithole but was never a big client of russia since it was always a poor country, soviet used to gift many military stuff instead of selling them. Now Erdogan is buying 4 S-400 for 4 billion $. May even buy su-35.

West destroyed lybia/Egypt and now Egypt is buying russian weapons and Lybian Haftar is going to also buy from Moscow. Both countries were not huge client of Russia since long time ago but are now very good clients.

China is still buying russian stuff. India also. Vietnam also. Even saudi arabia and co. will buy air defences from russia.

- Jihadi attack on Saraqib has been called off after Turkish convoy was slapped with artillery (it wasn't air strike)

- Turkish F-16s are prowling the Syrian border but VKS Sukhois are waiting on the other side so no joy for TAF

- Two drones have been shot down by Pantsirs near Khmeimim AB

- SAA offensive continues in several locations, they have been taking new towns all day today


https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5633018.html

you'd have to think he's not mad enough to shoot down another Russian fighter or is he? jesus he is nuts though, proper nuts.

Isos wrote:

ahmedfire wrote:

Vann7 wrote:

which tank is that?

is that turkey best tanks? or just oldest ones  , ?

It's upgraded M60 "Upgraded by Israel army ".

http://www.military-today.com/tanks/sabra.htm

He spend all his time saying Israeli are nazis but let them upgrade its tanks.

Erdogan is a really a rare specimen.

laughable alright.

Those su-35's are out of range for the Turkish F-16's anyway.

2 Questions from me:

1. any indication how much hardware was destroyed by the SAA
2. how in the name god do TWO Ferris Wheels remain upright in a civil war spanning years???

Isos wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:Pecking order never established. Dirty game has to be played.

This is why Russia will continue to be for a long foreseeable future a second rate power. You can't bank on their protection. When the going gets tough... you get a lot of balks and half assed support.

This Idlib nonsense should have been handled like Aleppo... so should have the Eastern Euphrates. But not before Russian deal making had any say about it... Too "smart" for their own good.

So you get standard Russian client state problems... mired in frozen conflict, harassed by its competitors, attrition - a MESS. And everyone watches and can see it for themselves.... which makes becoming a Russian client state/ally a last resort option for nations. West gets VIP, if a deal can be cut (wink Iran - and rightfully so). If it weren't for the fact that the West overplays their greed by springing chaos everywhere to create winners and losers, Russia would have an even smaller market to work from.

Never learn.

Not really.

Iran/SA are going to Moscow to discuss their conflict.

Iran/Israel are going to Moscow to discuss their conflict.

France/Germany are going to Moscow to discuss world stability and take distances with US.

Syria became a shithole but was never a big client of russia since it was always a poor country, soviet used to gift many military stuff instead of selling them. Now Erdogan is buying 4 S-400 for 4 billion $. May even buy su-35.

West destroyed lybia/Egypt and now Egypt is buying russian weapons and Lybian Haftar is going to also buy from Moscow. Both countries were not huge client of Russia since long time ago but are now very good clients.

China is still buying russian stuff. India also. Vietnam also. Even saudi arabia and co. will buy air defences from russia.

The drift is starting. Even if some internet couch generals don't think it is. Russia does not have to engage the world through some
ideological orifice. It can engage in general business with anyone. This used to be an exclusively (almost) western trump card since
the west was the mecca of capitalism. But the west is getting poor and fast, while the developing world is gaining more and more
world GDP footprint. So the day is coming when the west will have nothing to offer and that is when it will cease to dictate world
affairs.

If people paid attention, they would observe how there was supposed to be a brave new world order by the year 2000 with history
stopping at the commanding heights of the NATO west and the USA being sole hyper-power forever. That dream started unraveling
only a few years after 2000 and is now fully off the rails. The idea that America would be in antagonistic position with China today
is something that no globalist would believe in 1999.

crod wrote:2 Questions from me:

1. any indication how much hardware was destroyed by the SAA
2. how in the name god do TWO Ferris Wheels remain upright in a civil war spanning years???

No data on 1.

On 2: unless they were used for target practice there is no reason for them to collapse. It is not like they are rusting or something.
Also, the front line in Syria is not like WWI and WWII in Europe and every inch along it does not get destroyed.

[quote="kvs"]

crod wrote:2 Questions from me:

On 2: unless they were used for target practice there is no reason for them to collapse.  It is not like they are rusting or something.
Also, the front line in Syria is not like WWI and WWII in Europe and every inch along it does not get destroyed.

yeah but the head loppers don't like fun things. i guess it fell so quickly and much more besides there was no counter attack in the early days.

One of the most accurate South Front reports..  

Syrians Give Warm Welcome To Erdogan Troops Attacking Saraqib
(Lovers of Alqaeda democracy )

crod wrote:

1. any indication how much hardware was destroyed by the SAA

There is no confirmed data but according to the photos :

One M60 "Sabra Upgrade".
One M106 mortar carrier .
several vehicles.

The syrian strike was conducted in response to Turkish military support to the attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and other radicals on the liberated town of Saraqib.

I'm glad that turkey is paying some of what she did in syria over the past years .

ahmedfire wrote:

crod wrote:

1. any indication how much hardware was destroyed by the SAA

There is no confirmed data but according to the photos :

One M60 "Sabra Upgrade".
One M106 mortar carrier .
several vehicles.

The syrian strike was conducted in response to Turkish military support to the attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and other radicals on the liberated town of Saraqib.

I'm glad that turkey is paying some of what she did in syria over the past years .

Delighted...would love to see a few of those OPs obliterated the next time they’re used for fire missions too.

His articles are always good value

Syria - Turkey Invades Idleb But Its Bluff Will Be Called

Since last week's post on the Syrian Idleb campaign the Syrian army has made significant progress. The aim of the current campaign is to regain control over the M5 highway between Damascus and Aleppo city and the M4 highway between Latakia and Aleppo. These highways are of importance for the revival of Syria's economy.

It was originally Turkey's task to guarantee free civilian traffic on both highways. The Sochi Memorandum of Understanding (pdf) between Turkey and Russia, signed on September 17 2018, provides (machine translated):

3. A demilitarized zone with a depth of 15-20 km will be created in the de-escalation zone.

4. The specific passage of the lines defining the demilitarized zone will be agreed upon in the course of further consultations.

5. All radical terrorist groups will be withdrawn from the demilitarized zone by October 15, 2018.

6. All tanks, artillery, MLRS and mortars of the conflicting parties will be withdrawn from the demilitarized zone by October 10, 2018.

7. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Turkey and the military police of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will carry out coordinated patrols and monitoring using unmanned aerial vehicles in the demilitarized zone.

8. In the interests of ensuring free movement of local residents and goods, as well as restoring trade and economic ties, transit traffic along the routes M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5 (Aleppo-Hama) will be restored before the end of 2018.

None of these points were ever fulfilled by Turkey.

Idleb is still under control of the al-Qaeda aligned Hayat Tahrir al Shams (HTS) which has continued to attack Syrian government positions as well as civilian targets. HTS is internationally recognized as a terrorist organization, including by Turkey. But Turkey has done nothing to remove it. It instead provides the organization with weapons and other supplies.

The reaction of Turkey's wannabe Sultan Erdogan to the Syrian army campaign has been hysterical. He threatened several times that he would militarily intervene if the Syrian army operation does not stop. Over the last days more than 1,450 Turkish military vehicles, including tanks, heavy artillery and armored infantry vehicles, invaded the terrorist held Idleb area.

Turkey says that these are just reinforcements for its 'observer posts'. But in reality these forces are configured to attack the Syrian army. One Turkish artillery groups tried to set up a position at the former Syrian military airbase Taftanaz north of Saraqib. Earlier today it came under Syrian artillery fire. At least six Turkish soldiers were killed and several wounded. A Turkish helicopter was allowed to come in to evacuate the casualties.

The Turkish military claimed that it retaliated for the attack:

The Turkish army responded to the targets determined in the region, said the statement.

“The necessary response was given, the targets were destroyed and the blood of our martyrs was not left on the ground. The developments are being closely monitored and necessary measures are being taken,” said the statement.

There is no evidence that any such retaliation has taken place.

Turkey demands that the Syrian army retreats back to the lines where its current campaign started months ago. That is not going to happen.

Today, while the Turkish army settled among the terrorist, HTS sent two suicide vehicles against the Syrian lines. It is not yet known if they caused casualties. If the Turkish army wants to be the bodyguard of such terrorist it will be handled appropriately.

The Russian and Syrian air forces are in control of the airspace over Idleb. Russian war ships are deployed near the coast of Syria and are ready to launch their cruise missiles. Russia can reinforce its airforce in Syria within 24 hours. Turkey's airforce is not able to change that picture.

After the 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan nearly three quarters of Turkey's airforce pilots were dismissed. The maintenance status of Turkey's 240 F-16 fighter jets is dubious. It is estimate that less of a quarter of them are ready to fly. The F-16s are no match for the Russian Su-34 jets which cover Syria. They also lack the capabilities to overcome the Russian air defenses. Then there is also Russia's economic leverage over Turkey.

Over the last few days there have been intense talks between the Russian and the Turkish side. The Russians are not budging. Syria will liberate the two highways that Turkey promised would be opened under the Sochi MoU. Should the Turkish army try to prevent that it will be bombed to high heaven.

Erdogan can not risk a war with Russia in Syria. He is bluffing and his bluff will be called.

Posted by b on February 10, 2020 at 17:56 UTC


What a difference a week can make Compare the 3rd with the 10th of February.






https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/syria-turkey-invades-idleb-but-its-bluff-will-be-called.html#more

Syrian Air Force Mi-24P combat helicopter which, according to the Turkish Ministry of Defense, was shot down today, as it turned out, came under fire from terrorists.

Despite the damage received from the 57-mm gun gunmen, the crew was able to land on their own.

Not sure if this is a different incident, I doubt this one landed safely. It might be old pictures of course.

Andrew

@AndrewBritani
·
22m
I can now confirm the SyAAF helicopter was shot down over Idlib.

The pilot fate is unknown.

Aldin

@aldin_ww
·
44m
SyAAF helicopter downed over Idlib Province..

I can see the MSM headlines now....

"Russians kill Turkish Tourists while they waited for Ferris Wheel Ride - US condemns barbaric behavior".