Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #2

miketheterrible wrote:from what I read on comments section over at sdelanounas is that USA tried same exact shit about 60 years ago and it failed.  In the end, the pipeline will be built.  Turkstream is already done, they are just now expanding it to southern Europe which all agreed with it.  Nord Stream 2 is almost done and will be completed by Gazprom themselves.  If for some reason it fails, LNG from Russia will increase and demand will boom, as Russia already provides double for Europe in LNG than US does.

I'm not sure if forum members will agree with me or not but US society is broken. Broken families, individuals, pathological relationships, lonely people, etc., in the middle of all that extreme hedonism.

Austin wrote:Putin’s Grand Gas Project Makes Sense Now

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/12/26/putins-grand-gas-project-makes-sense-now-a68749

External pressure and market circumstances have helped shape the new Russian gas export system so that it can’t really be used as a sinister tool of Putin’s rogue foreign policy.

Twice in the 2000s, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine to try to bring it to heel, but without alternative export routes, such tactics were unsustainable

miketheterrible wrote:And Austin as usual has no ability to read through said articles before posting them.  Half to majority are from fifth columnists who won't tell the truth if it bit them in the ass.

Austin is acting like NATO propaganda troll on this board.

Russia-Ukraine Finalize Key Gas Deal

Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz finally reached a deal on the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine to Europe.

TASS quoted Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller say saying, "After continuous bilateral talks, which lasted for five days in Vienna, final decisions and agreements have been reached. We have signed a number of agreements and contracts, and they are in reality a significant package deal, which has restored the balance of interests of both sides."

There was concern in Europe that the two may fail to reach an agreement that would affect Russian gas deliveries to Europe given the tense political relations—and legal disputes—between the neighbors but, once again, pragmatism seems to have prevailed.

The good news for Ukraine, for whom gas transit fees are vitally important, is that the agreement includes stipulations about guaranteed volumes of gas that Gazprom will send across Ukraine. These are 65 billion cubic meters for 2020, falling to 40 billion cubic meters for the period between 2021 and 2024.

The good news for Gazprom is that Naftogaz will waive its claims to the 2009 contract between the companies as would Gazprom itself. The waivers might finally put an end to the legal saga that has been dragging for years. During these years, Naftogaz accused Gazprom of failing to supply the agreed volumes of gas while Gazprom accused Naftogaz of not paying for all the gas it received.

"The withdrawal of all existing appeals and claims on behalf of both sides” was part of the terms of the five-year contract, the executive director of Naftogaz, Yury Vitrenko said.

BNN Bloomberg quoted Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, as saying that under the new contract, Kiev will receive some $7 billion from transit fees.

According to Reuters, Gazprom has a 36-percent share of the European natural gas market, with European exports outside the former Soviet Union averaging 200 billion cubic meters. Of this, 86.8 billion cubic meters were transited through Ukraine last year.

Austin wrote:Putin’s Grand Gas Project Makes Sense Now

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/12/26/putins-grand-gas-project-makes-sense-now-a68749

Mamdouh Salameh
on
December 30 2019
said:
From the first day of his presidency, President Putin has set his eye on making Russia the superpower of Energy with sharp nuclear teeth. Not only this goal has been achieved but Russia has also emerged as the world’s superpower of natural gas since it has the largest proven gas reserves in the globe and is also the largest exporter of gas. Furthermore, it accounts for 40% of the European Union’s (EU’s) growing gas market and is now on the way to becoming the largest supplier of natural gas to China, the world’s largest energy market.

Russia’s supremacy in gas supplies will be further enhanced by the completion early
next year of both the Nord Steam 2 and Turk Stream gas pipelines which will be bringing more Russian gas supplies to the EU under the Baltic and the Black Seas respectively.

Russian position will be also strengthened by the Power of Siberia gas pipeline which was inaugurated in early December and which will be supplying 38 bcm of gas annually to China for the next 30 years.

And Putin’s plans don’t stop here. While Russia’s gas giant Gazprom is launching new pipelines east and west, Russia’s largest private gas producer Novatek is boosting its presence on the global LNG market. Novatek, which already exports LNG from the Yamal LNG plant in the Arctic gave in September the go-ahead to its second large LNG project, Arctic LNG 2. Now Novatek is a major exporter of LNG to China and it already accounts for 19% of the LNG market in the EU.

The United States has been trying to derail Nord Stream 2 first by President Trump threatening Germany with sanctions if it goes ahead with building the gas pipeline and now by threatening to impose sanctions on companies involved in its construction. But with President Putin at the helm and with support from the Iron German Chancellor Angel Merkel, Nord Stream 2 is unstoppable.

And despite claims by the United States that Nord Stream 2 undermines Europe’s overall energy security and stability, the Europeans see US opposition as a crude attempt to force them to buy US LNG.

While the sanctions may delay the completion of Nord Stream 2 by a few months, this will not affect Russian natural gas supplies to the EU. Russia could continue its gas shipments to the EU through Ukraine particularly after the recent agreement with Ukraine to settle their differences regarding the amount of Russian gas that will pass through Ukraine on its way to the EU and the transit fees that Ukraine will earn.

Still the United States’ projected LNG exports to the EU could be seriously affected. Germany may decide to shun US LNG exports altogether in retaliation against the United States’ interference in its energy affairs and the EU’s and buy Russian or Qatari LNG instead.

Moreover, previous US sanctions against Russia have proven a failure. Russia’s economy has emerged far stronger and more resilient from the 2014 US sanctions with Russia's foreign-exchange and gold reserves climbing by nearly one-fifth over the past year to almost $550 billion. This means that Russia could finance the completion of Nord Stream 2 on its own using its home-grown pipe-laying technology.

The reality of the 21st century—as President Putin sees it—is that energy is a political instrument. Political alliances and the rise and fall of the international importance of particular countries will change in accordance with the energy supply routes.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

Douglas Houck
on
December 30 2019
said:
What is left out of this article is the recently completed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which are part of the larger negotiations from the recent Normandy format talks between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France earlier this December. These talks were to address not only the transport of natural gas through Ukraine but how to deescalate the tensions in the Donbass region.

In 2018 Ukraine transported 87 bcm of natural gas from Russia to Europe. With the completion of Nord Stream 2 (55 bcm) and Turkstream (15 bcm) it was expected that Ukraine would only be used to transport 10-15 bcm of natural gas with the resultant decrease in export fees which make up a significant source of revenue for the Ukraine government.

The recently signed agreement requires Russia to export a minimum of 65 bcm in 2020 and 40 bcm in the subsequent years of 2021-2024 through Ukraine with a payment of $7 billion. These values correspond to little to no use of Nord Stream 2 in 2020 and only one barrel in the subsequent years. The biggest winner is Ukraine, then Europe and possibly to Russia. The biggest loser is the US and its desire to export LNG to Europe.


With this agreement and the extra year Russia and Germany have to complete Nord Stream 2 with Russian equipment, no decrease in Russian natural gas to Europe is expected. Where Russia has the potential to come out ahead is from the expected increase in natural gas that Europe will need as the Netherland gas fields come to an end of production and Germany shuts down its nuclear power plants. The actual amount of natural gas needed in the future is dependent on how much renewable energy Europe can bring on-line. Still, it is expected that Europe will need more gas than they are using now. To meet this need Russia had talked about building a third Nord Stream pipeline.

With a more secure and friendlier pipeline through Ukraine, Russia can easily export whatever amount of natural gas through Nord Stream 2 and all the other pipelines Europe will need in the near to mid-term future. Europe has secured its natural gas needs and with the prisoner swap, etc. helped stabilize Ukraine.

miketheterrible wrote:This is NOT a win for Russia by any means.  This was a total dud.

they folded to the west over Ukraine.  Now Russian tax payers money will fund the blood spill in eastern Ukraine only because they cant say no to Europe.  Not only they have to pay Naftogaz $3B when Ukraine owes Russia $3B, but they get $7B for transit.  Plus Ukraine (who calls Russia an enemy, calls for killing Russians, etc) gets a gas discount on top of it all from Russia.  Are you fucking kidding me?

Grow a fucking spine Russia.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:This is NOT a win for Russia by any means.  This was a total dud.

they folded to the west over Ukraine.  Now Russian tax payers money will fund the blood spill in eastern Ukraine only because they cant say no to Europe.  Not only they have to pay Naftogaz $3B when Ukraine owes Russia $3B, but they get $7B for transit.  Plus Ukraine (who calls Russia an enemy, calls for killing Russians, etc) gets a gas discount on top of it all from Russia.  Are you fucking kidding me?

Grow a fucking spine Russia.

Indeed.  As if Russia could not have anticipated these sanctions hysterics from Washington.   Since there are no pipe-laying projects in the Pacific, it made no sense
for Russia's main pipe laying ship to be parked there instead of in European waters.   And Russia had no actual need to hire the Swiss to do the laying job and could
have avoided the predictable disruption.   Now every day of project delay will cost millions of dollars.  

The galling thing about the deal with the Banderastani excrement is that such deals should be made only under military concessions.  That is, only if the Kiev
regime withdraws its paramilitary and military forces from the Donbas.   Stopping the shelling of residential neighbourhoods is a minimum condition.

kvs wrote:The Swiss will invoke "force majeur" (the yanquis are an act of God) as a defense and will get away with it.   Especially, with biased
kangaroo arbitration courts like the one in Stockholm.

Maybe Putin thinks he is some real Christian and is turning the other cheek.   He needs to be careful since his head can be lopped off.

 

Now Russian tax payers money will fund the blood spill in eastern Ukraine only because they cant say no to Europe.

Not only they have to pay Naftogaz $3B when Ukraine owes Russia $3B, but they get $7B for transit. Plus Ukraine (who calls Russia an enemy, calls for killing Russians, etc) gets a gas discount on top of it all from Russia. Are you fucking kidding me?

Grow a fucking spine Russia.

The galling thing about the deal with the Banderastani excrement is that such deals should be made only under military concessions. That is, only if the Kiev
regime withdraws its paramilitary and military forces from the Donbas. Stopping the shelling of residential neighbourhoods is a minimum condition.

They instead give the Russian killers 25% discount on Russian Gas. Wow. So it really pays off to kill Russians in Russia? Putin is a real fucking moron here

Then again he said it is all bullshit.

So it may be people he has no control over making this decision. At that point, I would purge the system Stalin style.

You know that Miller from Gazprom did this on purpose.

Now Russia needs to show a spine and sue the Swiss company for not fulfilling their contract. But for some reason, I doubt they will do it.

The Swiss will invoke "force majeur" (the yanquis are an act of God) as a defense and will get away with it. Especially, with biased
kangaroo arbitration courts like the one in Stockholm.

It would be better if his head was lopped off. Then it will be an eye opener to rest of Russians that they need strength, not bullshit feel good tactics.

The bottom line is that the Russians made a Huge mistake when they decided to breakup the USSR and gave away territories that it fought hard for during WW2. Now they are paying the ultimate price for their carelessness. I hope the Chinese will not be so Stupid to trust the west.

imagine having to pay for stuff in the Ukraine and Baltic states... not to mention the 'stans.

Russia needs to focus on its own territory to develop and grow and invest... which should also include using Russian products and Russian companies and Russian technologies instead of western ones.

Bulgaria began to receive Russian gas from Turkish Stream

miketheterrible wrote:And they fucking didn't.  They instead give the Russian killers 25% discount on Russian Gas.  Wow.  So it really pays off to kill Russians in Russia?  Putin is a real fucking moron here.  Then again he said it is all bullshit.  So it may be people he has no control over making this decision.  At that point, I would purge the system Stalin style.

You know that Miller from Gazprom did this on purpose.

Now Russia needs to show a spine and sue the Swiss company for not fulfilling their contract.  But for some reason, I doubt they will do it.

Unfortunately, after the separation of these countries from Russia, NATO had the chance to brainwash the people of these countries that they are NOT Russian and NATO actively convinced the people of Ukraine, Baltics and Stans that they have their own national identity. Now it will require a massive event like World War 3 for Russia to incorporate these territories again to be part of its own.