Russian Oil and Gas Industry: News #2

owais.usmani wrote:https://www.dw.com/en/nord-stream-2-construction-of-disputed-pipeline-to-restart-in-december/a-55762142

Nord Stream 2: Construction of disputed pipeline to restart in December

LMFS wrote:Russia is not doing EU a favour because of respect or loyalty, they are acting on their own interests, on several levels. And of course they should not react because of insults or offences but because of objective benefits.

- Pipeline gas is so much cheaper than LNG that it is essentially impossible to offset the difference through sanctions, democracy taxes or any other measure. EU knows accessing that type of energy source is very relevant for them to survive as viable industrial economies. By trading LNG Russia would just be another competitor in the market and not have any essential competitive advantage, even with their improved liquefaction technologies and conditions. I am not 100% sure that the current pipeline volumes could be supplied by Russian LNG either.
- The fixed revenue produced by long term contracts stabilises the market and the Russian budget, that is how they survive crises like current one where spot markets collapse.

Other beneficial effects I mentioned above, I think it is not needed to detail them further.

Finally, one very relevant element of sustainable state policies is to understand the underlying, legitimate interests of the countries beyond their current leadership. Germany or the EU countries are not going to disappear tomorrow and Russia behaving like a real enemy now would defeat any rapprochement and the work of the forces that right now are fighting in Europe for it. Russia needs to stay completely neutral and not reinforce the narrative of the forces trying to stoke tensions, at least they must give Europe an option to make a decision between confrontation and cooperation. You may say the confrontation is the clear path forwards, but let us not forget the extreme pressure the German industry is bearing in order to bring NS II forward, there is indeed a hard fight being fought and I see it only logical that Russia tries not to interfere with it and wait for the outcome. It is obvious that Europeans are been taken hostages by the parasitic elites and that they themselves are the first ones from which a reaction is to be expected, the very first minute the extreme manipulations being carried on softens a bit or if the economy tanks further. It would be fool to contribute to unite the European elites and their population in fighting against Russia.

JohninMK wrote:

kvs wrote:
It matters not to Russia that LNG is more expensive.   The customer pays anyway.   And any of the usual futures trading rackets used
to suppress commodity prices can be defeated by waiting to sell.   The gas market is supply constrained and not demand constrained.
This point is clearly being missed in all of this "Russia should act like a goody two shoes" analysis.   Russia is not acting in its
own interest by tolerating EU-tard defamation and open political interference.   You do not feed the dog that bites you as you feed it.
You give it a swift kick and let it learn how to fend for itself.    Russia has no moral or economic obligation to wipe the EU's ass.  
The clowns in Bruxelles clearly think that natural gas can be supplied from anywhere.   Well, let them try it.

Instead of wasting billions of dollars building a pipeline which the EU-tards would restrict to 50% usage even if they tolerated its
completion, Russia should have spent those billions building LNG export infrastructure.   That would really have served its interests
and not the inane pandering to haters.

OK so the Russian population is going to be really pleased to see roughly 20 Billion Euros wiped off its annual income, a loss of something in the order of 5% GDP.

Right on brother. Your economic analyses are really something else.

kvs wrote:The resident anti-Russian British hack clearly realizes that the EU and the UK are fucked if Russia transfers its exports
to the east and to LNG, which is global like oil.   Without the western export pipelines, the Russia haters will have to
scramble hard to keep their asses warm and electricity supplied.  

Funny yapping about economics, when Russia is making fully uneconomic decisions servicing hater ingrates with discounted
pipeline gas.   Pipelines are stupid since they bind the seller to the buyer.   Exporting LNG is vastly more economical since
LNG goes to where the demand is and cannot be blackmailed as we see with EU-tardia's campaign against Russia's gas.
That's real economics and not poser propaganda.

EU-tards think Russia is desperate for their "hard cash" since they clearly live in the perpetual 1980s and assume that they
can coerce it to eat their shit.   The only coercion is from the Russian leadership which shows the same nonsensical fetish
for the west as has been the case in Russia for the last 300 years.  

kvs wrote:The gas market is supply constrained and not demand constrained.

miketheterrible wrote:There is one good reason to complete it: the contract states so.  If Russia doesn't complete it, it could be a bad or move and could get Russia sued (not like Russia cares). BUT, if Germany pulls out, then Russia can sue Germany.

so more money.

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:There is one good reason to complete it: the contract states so.  If Russia doesn't complete it, it could be a bad or move and could get Russia sued (not like Russia cares). BUT, if Germany pulls out, then Russia can sue Germany.

so more money.

There is no contract.   People should provide the links proving the existence of one.  

There is no contract for any trans-shipment of gas since the pipeline is not operational.    

There was a contract for construction but it is fully null and void because the construction company
pulled out.   Gazprom does not automatically take up the burden under any legal terms.   People should
stop making crap up.  

NATzO is openly acting to break any contracts related to NS II.   Why must Russia fulfill them?  

GarryB wrote:Most contracts have exist clauses built in in case for whatever reason the companies making the pipeline cannot deliver on time or on spec or on budget.

Even if Germany could sue Gazprom for 10 billion dollars, Gazprom can just add those extra costs to the gas they sell to Germany... the costs to Germany of having to ship LNG will be more over time than any fee they might end up charging... especially if Gazprom decide to stop selling the EU and change to international sales via shipping rather than pipes.

Even if the US got all the gas sales contracts to the EU I rather doubt they are even making a profit... they are just trying to gain market share so will probably be losing some money and not making profitable margins.

Gazprom has signed a long-term contract with the Austrian OMV for the supply of gas to the largest market for the monopoly in Germany. According to Kommersant's information, the volume of the contract may amount to 6 billion cubic meters, the term - 15 years. According to analysts, the new contract may help Gazprom solve the problem of gas supplies via Nord Stream 2. Currently, European legislation prohibits the monopoly from loading the pipe with its own gas by more than 50%, but by selling gas to European companies that support the project with a delivery point in Russia, the monopoly will be able to bypass this restriction.