US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

The Trump lags in polls. So a war may increase popularity, before elections. Also no harsh reaction so far , to killing of Iranian General, or  Natanz  sabotage or nearly crashing Iranian passenger plane or  diverting oil Tanker with Iranian oil or  attacks by Zionasti against  " Iranian"  targets in Syria. No Nukes. No new Russian fighter jet deliveries. No significant attacks against US bases. So the coast is clear for one big last push. One great throw of the dice. While they still hold the Trump card. It will take no more than three weeks.

JohninMK wrote:The media has largely missed this, but Pompeo has signaled that the US will enforce (non-existent) UN sanctions on Iran importing/exporting weapons as early as next week.

Difficult to see how as most would probably come/go overland. Possibly by confiscating Iranian cargo ships.

This could spark a US-Iran war – only weeks before the presidential elections.


With less than seven weeks left until the U.S. presidential elections, the faction within the Trump administration aligned with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seems to be preparing the ground for an October Surprise — a confrontation with Iran that will be cast as both defensive and lawful. The first direct clash may take place as early as this coming Monday.

Pompeo tweeted on August 27 that the 30 day period to snapback United Nations Security Council sanctions on Iran comes to an end on September 20, 2020. The tweet was bizarre on several grounds. First, the entire U.N. Security Council (with the notable exception of the Dominican Republic) had made clear that the U.S. did not have standing to initiate the snapback mechanism contained within the Iran nuclear deal since the U.S. no longer was a party to the agreement. Pompeo’s tweet completely disregards the verdict of the vast majority of the Council and pretends as if the 30-day snapback clock had begun.

Second, and perhaps more problematic, Pompeo appeared to signal that he intends to enforce the non-existent U.N. sanctions at “midnight GMT on September 20.” Enforcement would entail U.S. warships attacking and confiscating Iranian cargo ships in international waters — as well as non-Iranian vessels suspected of carrying Iranian goods. Pompeo will contend that these measures are not only lawful but also necessary to uphold the (again, non-existent) ruling of the U.N. Security Council.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/09/16/is-mike-pompeo-preparing-an-october-surprise/?mc_cid=0ffb01d222&mc_eid=fee8fd8a4f

Fat ass is just getting desperate, I think that Iran already knew this happened and they probably prepared something.

Iran needs to focus on it's navy, I think going forward, navy will be the most important. The threat that your cargo ships and oil tanker be taken over is going to be a normal norm.

Iran did have high level meetings with Russia, maybe they talked about this.

nomadski wrote:The Trump lags in polls. So a war may increase popularity, before elections. Also no harsh reaction so far , to killing of Iranian General, or  Natanz  sabotage or nearly crashing Iranian passenger plane or  diverting oil Tanker with Iranian oil or  attacks by Zionasti against  " Iranian"  targets in Syria. No Nukes. No new Russian fighter jet deliveries. No significant attacks against US bases. So the coast is clear for one big last push. One great throw of the dice. While they still hold the Trump card. It will take no more than three weeks.

War with Iran will be very expensive/long and Russia and China will be involved in some capacity, also European countries are unlikely support the US in this.

Dump is done, the handling of the pandemic, rioting, race riots/problems, economy in the gutter/unemployment rates, sabotage by the Republicans. It is too much to overcome.

European disarray pushes Iran, Turkey into China camp

IMO the US will try to provoke conflicts between/around Iran & Pakistan, India, UAE, KSA & Turkey. Large scale war with Gulf States must wait till they r better armed & made interoperable/amicable with Israel. The US will benefit if China gets dragged into it as she then would be fighting a 2 front war instead of 1 in the Indo-Pacific.
We r now in the pre-1st Eurasian War time.

Trump didn't have a chance last election, yet managed to win... the democrats are full of yesmen and their cheerleader media organisations are all liberal too and support the same idiots no matter what.

Trump supporters wont listen to reason any more than democrats will listen to reason.... they know they support something when you tell them whose idea it was... Obamas or Trumps... there is no discussion.... if you hate orange then I love orange blah blah blah.

Your ideas are communism, we wont even try it...

Trumps election started with riots because the liberal democrats are spoiled little kids who don't accept defeat or that they could possibly be wrong about anything...

Who knows who is going to win the next election, but a lot of democrats that are sure they are going to win are talking about what they might have to do if Trump refuses to concede defeat... this is the most likely way I can see a civil war starting any time soon... they wont do it because the rich are making the poor poorer so the rich can become slightly richer, and they wont do it because black people seem to be getting killed all the time by their police forces... but Trump not giving up power I think could do it...

The US will benefit if China gets dragged into it as she then would be fighting a 2 front war instead of 1 in the Indo-Pacific.

They thought they would benefit if they could drag Russia into the Syrian conflict and it totally backfired on them...

They thought they would benefit if they could drag Russia into the Syrian conflict and it totally backfired on them...

they hoped she would be stuck in a no-win limbo there like them in Afghanistan but only after Russia decided to draw the line & intervened there. Iran helped with man power, otherwise Assad would still be in trouble. Thus, Russia can't afford to antagonize Iran in any way.

Tsavo Lion wrote:They thought they would benefit if they could drag Russia into the Syrian conflict and it totally backfired on them...

they hoped she would be stuck in a no-win limbo there like them in Afghanistan but only after Russia decided to draw the line & intervened there. Iran helped with man power, otherwise Assad would still be in trouble. Thus, Russia can't afford to antagonize Iran in any way.

Ah, a remark I agree with, Iran is providing lots of manpower to Assad. The Russians aren't if Iran decided to stop its support, you would see a drastic free-fall for the SYRIANS.

par far wrote:

nomadski wrote:The Trump lags in polls. So a war may increase popularity, before elections. Also no harsh reaction so far , to killing of Iranian General, or  Natanz  sabotage or nearly crashing Iranian passenger plane or  diverting oil Tanker with Iranian oil or  attacks by Zionasti against  " Iranian"  targets in Syria. No Nukes. No new Russian fighter jet deliveries. No significant attacks against US bases. So the coast is clear for one big last push. One great throw of the dice. While they still hold the Trump card. It will take no more than three weeks.

War with Iran will be very expensive/long and Russia and China will be involved in some capacity, also European countries are unlikely support the US in this.

Dump is done, the handling of the pandemic, rioting, race riots/problems, economy in the gutter/unemployment rates, sabotage by the Republicans. It is too much to overcome.

In all fairness the US in a republic....Meaning the governors are in charge of their states, They can decline Trump wanting to personal handle matters at the state level. The President's job is to oversee the Federal government. The states are meant to be managed and controlled by the governors and if need be they can ask the federal government for help but they can also refuse said "help" Trump cannot force a Govenger to obey him unless he goes through courts.

1. the rioting wasn't his fault, he wanted to do something about but the Gov refused and wouldn't let him act and they let things get out of control.

2. Covid is a state by state case, etc Trump did what he was required to do. He put the federal government into force to help the states on a case by case basis. It's not his job to monitor every state but to put things into place which is what he did. A lot of the Covid problems fall on the governors themselves.

3. Um Under Trump US has historically low unemployment rates, yes they did kind of get higher due to Covid but that's hardly his fault and under him the US economy was better then before he took office.

I am not defending him just stating some facts, I understand the Media is quick to blame him but the Democrat ran media channels will go after him for anything and make it seem like the fault is his.

For the record, I do not support any of them.

I don't think he has succeeded in the foreign policy in the long run either.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/163687/We-will-target-those-behind-Gen-Soleimani-s-assassination

There are only two possibilities here. Either this is idle talk , and  only meant for political reasons. Or it is a true intention at  an unspecified  date. In the fist instance , it may have negative consequences  for those making such statements ,  from political point of view, loss of credibility. Or if it has been decided already , then we must all know , that a strike by Iran , is inevitable. So in this case, Iranians are only preparing the ground,  to stop  retaliation.............

But I think, it is only a statement for internal political consumption. Because if it was an indication of real intent at a national level, then the state and government would not be hiding the truth from the public. They would tell them openly about recent attacks against Iran. And allow the people to then get prepared for proper defence  ( detterence) and proper attack........

Thus, Russia can't afford to antagonize Iran in any way.

Iran isn't doing this for Russia... they want US troops in Syria less than Russia wants them there and keeping large numbers of Russian troops out of Syria is probably as much in Irans interests as it is in Russias interests.

Russia has no fundamental problems with Iran... more with Saudi Arabia to be fair... they are the exporters of terror.

Assad was an idiot who tried to suck up to the west, but when they realised he wouldn't sell out his country so western companies could plunder it they turned on him... he was lucky to not end up like Gadaffi or Saddam...

He is very much like Luka however... Russia has no attachments to him and if he was replaced by a popular leader they would have no problem cooperating with them as long as they are not western stooges wanting to sell out to the west at the first opportunity the way the west likes them.

Ah, a remark I agree with, Iran is providing lots of manpower to Assad. The Russians aren't if Iran decided to stop its support, you would see a drastic free-fall for the SYRIANS.

Iran is there because they have Americans on all their borders and they want them gone.

Iran knows Russia doesn't want US troops there either so of course they can work together... Remember the US worked with Stalin to fight the nazis and then the Nazis of west germany to fight the commies and the imperial japanese to also fight the commies, but they also worked with the Chinese commies to fight the soviet commies and now terrorists to fight assad and Iran... Americans will work with any scum they fundamentally hate just to have proxies to fight their wars against what they see at the time as their biggest threat... most of the time they get into bed with people much worse than the ones they are fighting, but I am sure you will agree and say the commies are the worst... hahaha...

For the record, I do not support any of them.

But the American cry of... you are either with us or with the terrorists applies here... you can't not pick a side and therefore demonise the other side as being Putins tools, and Russian hackers did it...

I don't think he has succeeded in the foreign policy in the long run either.

Compared to Bush jnr he is not that bad, but his goals and agenda are very specific and obviously help the people who control him... and very few other people in the US or around the world.

@ johninmk

Agree about continuation of  US problems for Iran and Russia in ME. Even if they have failed in snap back, still a lot of damage to Iran caused by sanctions. Oil sales now at all time low point. Many firms in Europe still not trading. Even Russian civilian firms. Only hope is this China deal. If it goes through.

It is unlikely to be a solution anytime soon. The Americans can not maintain a monopoly position in ME. So if they can not own it, they break it. Under Trump, they enter military phase against Iran.

The Iranians must now avoid wasting time on them. No more flexibility. By the way the flexibility shown by Iran during JCPOA,  was plastic and the Yanks flexibility was elastic. They could snap back, with a phone call. Iranians had to build an entire new nuclear plant. Because they poured concrete. A mistake by present government. Plus ordering hundreds of Boeing planes..... Putting our lives into their hands. I hope it is all over with the Yanks now. That they leave us alone. And go home. But I think they will have to be kicked out. Withdraw under fire.

But whose fire ?  The political establishment in Iran,  will not go to war. Or ready for war. Even if attacked. Humiliated. Despite brave comments. And Americans know this. And Russians can not go to war, because of Nukes on both sides. And the Americans will not leave.......

JohninMK wrote:In many ways this is turning into an Arabian peninsula with Israel (backed by US) calling the shots versus Iran with Russia (maybe) and China (possibly) potential conflict.

The good news is that this looks like another Mutually Assured Destruction scenario. The militaries on both sides are armed to the teeth but know that the other would have sufficient military gear left operative after a first strike to destroy the economic structures in the other for decades to come. The problem is the politicians who often harbour delusions of invincibility.

China and Russia don't have bases in Iran. There is no scenario of mutual destruction. At least not nuclear and not involving china/russia.

Iran should have already enough missiles to blow up all the US bases and oil production in the Gulf. And is probably giving hundreds of them to houtis and syrian hezbollah to blow up Israeli key targets.

US failed containing them and Israel seems to hit low value targets in Syria only, probably thanks to a good intel from Russia about Israeli satellite surveillance.

The cost of such war is really too much for US and co. While Iran is already a country from stone age so it's not some destroyed building that will affraid them.

I heard on news today, wrong assessment by IRGC, about war by Iran against America. They said that to hit Iran or defeat Iran, the Americans have to bring troops into region. That they have no long range capability, to hit Iran from afar. That Iran has the means to nullify their long range attack !

They say this, at a time, when Iran lacks the ability to attack America mainland. No detterence force either. So if they seriously want to attack America, they will face retaliation. But they say that they will win.

Iranians could face a situation, where America uses it's long range weapons. Destroys a lot of the infrastructure in Iran. And yes in return, looses it's bases in region. But the trade off, will be in their favour. Bases could return, or rebuilt or dispersed, to avoid destruction. Iran will have a hard time rebuilding it's infrastructure. I don't think they can, right now.

So it looks like, a definite lack of military and political leadership. Throwing Iran into a war, without being ready. Unprepared for a defeat. Or destruction. Hubris plays on all sides.


https://en.mehrnews.com/news/163721/Iranian-forces-ready-to-destroy-all-US-interests-in-region

Iranians could face a situation, where America uses it's long range weapons. Destroys a lot of the infrastructure in Iran. And yes in return, looses it's bases in region. But the trade off, will be in their favour. Bases could return, or rebuilt or dispersed, to avoid destruction. Iran will have a hard time rebuilding it's infrastructure. I don't think they can, right now.

If the Gulf oil production is destroyed, it's the world that will suffer.

Iran would have the right to blow it up.

That could also trigger a war in Venezuela so that US controls their production like they did with Saudi arabia since 1945.

They better buy some more S-300, frigates/subs and su30 in the near future.

Isos wrote:That could also trigger a war in Venezuela so that US controls their production like they did with Saudi arabia since 1945.

They better buy some more S-300, frigates/subs and su30 in the near future.

This is very true, I don't think that Zionist regime will start a war against Iran but they may try in Venezuela.

@ ISOS


"......... If the Gulf oil production is destroyed, it's the world that will suffer.Iran would have the right to blow it up......"

Any disruption, may be short term. And will put America in a good position to supply Europe and Japan and allies with fracked oil  at high prices. Also the military industrial complex, could care less about price of oil. They care about sale of weapons. War at any price. I think the war Hawks, will not accept a Rain cheque this time, before they support Trump, into another term in office. They want him to engage troops now, in a war, to ensure payment after elections. Hard cash now. Hard cash later. Even if Biden is elected, they are into the gravy. Guaranteed.......

Russia would sell it cheaper and now one would buy that expensive US oil. They will try to put their hands on Venezuelan oil instead. And probably on Angola or Nigeria (I don't remember which african country has huge reserves) too.

China would send a hundreds of ships to secure Iranian oil for its market.

There is no way to rebuild all the oil facilities quickly. That would take years if not decades. Iran would keep destroying them with missiles and proxies anyway.

Dollar would be hurt too as US won't control the gulf production anymore.

So if we accept your reasons, then there will be no oil shortage. A huge array of nations will fill the gap. No world economic collapse. Also think back a bit, when the mini - Tanker war started recently. Altogether a dozen Tankers from ME countries were hit. But price of oil remained relatively stable. No world shortage. This takes away the importance of oil from ME.  No longer an effective weapon.

Also, think back to Iraq in Kuwait. Many oil facility was blown up. But the fires were put out. Production resumed quickly. The Americans do not need to hit Iran oil facility, to cause great damage to country. Plenty of other targets. And if Iran hit any oil, then they could retaliate. For this reason alone, oil from PG, may not even be target. And if a target, then USA can build damaged facility quickly. Iran, on other hand, will have problems rebuilding. Look at Iraq now, compared to Kuwait.

I am not sure about the ups and downs of exchange rate. And value of dollar. And even if this will have a bearing on the decision making, regarding war.

Altogether, I think the chances of Americans intercepting shipping and putting physical blockade on Iran, are high. Since I am pretty sure, Iran has no detterence force. Or it would have displayed it by now. No point in waiting any longer. Without detterence, Iran will be damaged severely. And someone ( probably CIA) posted poison to white House. Or could it be Iran? Brings back memory of Anthrax in the post, proved later to be of USA stocks. Just in time, after 9/11, to push for war......

Americans went into Iraq because saudi arabia paid 20 or 50 billions $. The rest of the Gulf states paid also some billions.

Iraq didn't destroyed Kuweiti productions they just set fires at some pipelines to create smoke.

Destroying facilities and not pipelines is a another story. Thise are huge facilities and their rebuilding would take years in the best case (peacetime) but Iranian proxies will keep shotting at them and redestroying them.

Countries have strategic reserves for 3 or 4 months which was enough in the case of kuweit.

Iran destroying oil production would impact EU, US, China and all Asia and mostly Japan. Russia, Venezuela and Iran would be the winners.

US couldn't even hit back because Iran would be one of the few countries left with a very good oil priduction and enough under the ground. Destroying it would totally impact China and if Chinese economy go down then US and will go down even more too.